The real money in trading is made when a trend is young. When a stock is just coming out of a big base and starts moving up for the first time, that is where the strongest and cleanest moves happen. The stock is fresh. The buyers are just getting active. The energy is building.

This is the stage where smart traders enter quietly. Most people are still doubting the move or waiting for confirmation. But the early trend is where you get the best risk to reward and the smoothest swings.

As the trend gets older, the story changes. Now everyone can see it. The stock has already gone up a lot. Every breakout becomes choppier. Every pullback gets deeper. More people enter late and the move starts to lose strength. You can still make money here, but the easy part is over.

Your goal is simple. Learn to spot trends when they are young. Look for a stock that has been going sideways for a while, forms a base, and then starts breaking out with strength. That is where the clean move begins. That is where the probability is highest. And that is where most traders miss out because they wait for too much confirmation.

If you enter early, you ride the whole trend. If you enter late, you only get leftovers.

The big money always comes from catching the trend when it is just waking up.

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🧾 New SF Fed study flips the tariff narrative

A 150-year review of US tariff policy shows a surprising pattern: tariffs push inflation up in the short term, but the recessionary drag that follows is stronger and ends up pulling inflation down over a 1–3 year window.

🔊 Tariffs are both inflationary and recessionary

🔊 The recessionary effect dominates over time, lowering inflation

🔊 This aligns with what 2025 data already shows

🔊 These findings could influence upcoming FOMC decisions

Markets love simple narratives, but this one isn’t that simple. Tariffs may push prices up at first, but the slowdown they trigger ends up mattering a lot more for the Fed.

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⚡️ Nvidia’s Valuation vs The Entire US Energy Sector

Nvidia is now worth almost three times more than the whole US energy sector, yet it doesn’t generate more free cash flow.

Over the past year, the combined free cash flow of energy companies in the S&P 500 came in about twenty percent higher than Nvidia’s.

🔊 Nvidia market cap around 4.6T
🔊 US energy sector around 1.7T
🔊 Energy sector free cash flow roughly 898B
🔊 Nvidia free cash flow around 728B

Tech keeps rewriting the rules, but the chart is a reminder that real infrastructure still powers everything underneath the AI boom.

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JUST IN: President Trump says $270 billion worth of agreements are being signed with “dozens of companies” today.

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JUST IN: The US Labor Department announces that it is CANCELLING the October jobs report.

For the first time since 2013, we will not be receiving a monthly jobs report.

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📊 How DOM And Tape Help You Read The Market In Real Time

Depth of Market is one of the cleanest ways to understand what buyers and sellers are actually doing right now.

It shows every resting order on the book and gives you a live picture of liquidity, absorption and intent. Tape adds the second half of the story by showing every executed trade with time, size and direction. Put together, they turn raw price action into something readable.

➕ DOM shows you:
• Resting liquidity on both sides of the book
• Where large limit orders sit and how they change over time
• Stacking and pulling, which reveals whether participants are adding real size or bluffing
• Areas where market buys or sells were filled the last time price visited
• Bid and ask strength, including visible volume and delta shifts

✔️ Tape shows you:
• Real executed trades instead of intentions
• Speed and intensity of buying or selling
• Clusters of aggressive buyers or sellers hitting the book
• Whether large orders absorb or get run through

When you combine both, patterns start to stand out. Stacked bids that stay firm while the tape prints steady buys hint at real interest. Pulled asks right before a burst of market buys show sellers stepping out of the way. Fast red prints into a wall of deep bids tell you who’s actually stronger.

DOM is the map and tape is the heartbeat. Together they help you see if momentum is genuine, if a level is likely to hold, and whether big players are defending or fading price. It takes practice, but once your eyes adjust, the market stops looking random and starts making sense.

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Trading is like climbing a mountain for 5 years
to enjoy the view for the rest of your life.

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❕ The $33.4 Billion Shell Game: How Silicon Valley’s Greatest Fraud Unravels in 40 Days

Nvidia reported something devastating yesterday that nobody caught.

Days Sales Outstanding jumped to 53 days. Historical average: 46 days. That seven day difference represents $10.4 billion in revenue Nvidia collected on paper but never in cash.

☄️ Here’s what’s actually happening:

● Nvidia invests in AI startups.
● Those startups buy cloud services.
● Cloud providers use that money to buy Nvidia chips.
● Nvidia books it as revenue.
● But it’s the same money going in circles.

🛍 The proof is mathematical:

● Accounts receivable: $33.4 billion (doubled since last year)
● Inventory: $19.8 billion (rising during a “shortage”)
● Cloud commitments: $26 billion (doubled in 90 days)

Total capital trapped: $79.2 billion.
Total cash generated last year: $64.8 billion.

They’ve trapped more money than they’ve ever made.

The smoking gun: Inventory rising 32% while claiming “insane demand” is impossible unless those chips aren’t actually selling. You cannot have shortage and surplus simultaneously. Basic physics.

Operating cash flow is only 75% of net income. Healthy companies generate 100% or more. That 25% gap? Fake revenue that will never become real money.

❓ What happens next:

● December 2025: Aging schedule reveals truth
● February 2026: Last chance to exit
● April 2026: First receivables writeoff
● October 2026: Full unraveling begins
● Stock price today: $140
● Price after writeoffs: $70

This isn’t speculation. It’s accounting arithmetic. When receivables age beyond 60 days, writeoffs are mandatory under GAAP.

Nortel did this in 2001.
Lucent in 2000.
Both went to zero.

The mechanism is identical: circular vendor financing disguised as growth.

Verify yourself: Check any tech company’s DSO. Above 50 spells doom.

The countdown has begun.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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🚀 Could Google Be The First 5T Company

Gemini 3 changed the narrative overnight. The real breakthrough wasn’t just model quality but the fact that Google ran it on its own TPUs, not Nvidia chips. That shifts the economics of AI and puts Google in position to dominate the full stack.

📊 Why TPUs matter

TPUs deliver better performance per dollar and far better energy efficiency. That cuts Google’s fastest growing expense across Search, Ads, Gemini and Cloud which directly lifts margins.

➡️ From internal tech to industry product

Google is moving TPUs beyond its own cloud and selling capacity externally. The Anthropic deal for up to one million TPUs shows they can compete at hyperscale. Each TPU generation is reportedly a bigger leap than new GPU releases.

💱 The flywheel
By owning the hardware that powers Ads, Cloud and AI, Google captures more value at every layer. Google Cloud can price more aggressively because its compute costs are lower than rivals dependent on Nvidia. Margin expansion follows.

📈 Where this leads
If the strategy holds, Google takes share from AWS, Azure and Nvidia while becoming the default platform to build and run AI. Gemini strengthens the consumer side and TPUs fortify the backend.

The market doubted them for more than a year, but the pieces are finally clicking into place. A 5T valuation is no longer a stretch.

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