🥈Silver may be gearing up for a real breakout

Tavi Costa points out that silver could be entering a true price discovery phase. And it’s happening while the gold to silver ratio sits near levels that historically marked major turning points.

⏺ The current ratio is still close to multi-decade highs
⏺ Past spikes of this size often preceded strong silver runs
⏺ The chart shows multiple years above extreme readings
⏺ Silver usually reacts when the ratio drifts far from its long-term average

It’s the kind of setup that builds quiet pressure for a move, and the market looks like it’s getting ready to test how far silver can actually go.

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🪙 The Coin Flip That Teaches You Everything About Trading

Every trade is a coin flip. Heads you win, tails you lose. It sounds simple, fair, even elegant, until it’s your real money on the line.

Flip once and it feels harmless. Flip a thousand times and the math starts to work against you. Lose three in a row and even three wins can’t bring you back. That is how risk works. It is not balanced. Every loss shrinks your base, and every next win gives you less.

Most traders do not fail because they are wrong. They fail because they bet too big.

The only real edge in markets is patience. Knowing when not to play. Waiting until the odds lean in your favor and sizing your position accordingly. Big when it matters, small or flat when it does not. Most of the time, that means doing nothing.

But doing nothing feels unnatural. The mind wants movement. So we force trades that are not there, chase volatility, and mistake activity for progress.

Patience is not a virtue. It is math. It is the understanding that survival depends on saying no much more often than yes.

The best traders do not flip more coins. They flip cleaner ones. They wait for edge, for clarity, for conviction. That is how randomness turns into performance.

Before your next trade, ask yourself one question.

Would you sign your name under it?

Every position is your signature. Every decision adds to your record. If you would not proudly own it, do not take it.

When something carries your name, it should be intentional.
And if you love the game, really love it, you should want it to last.

🐴 Join the White Horse

Progress in trading is exponentially delayed.

The small iterations you make week after week, studying your wins, losses, and most importantly your own behavior, compound long before they show any visible results.

Then suddenly, all at once, you see massive improvements.

Seemingly out of nowhere.

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Trader A says the edge is in the strategy. If someone learns their scans and buy points, they’ll lose it.

Trader B says the edge is in position sizing and trade management, the parts that make any strategy work.

The truth is, the edge is a hypothetical concept that lives in the mind. It exists only as long as you believe it does.

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The Most Important Trading Advice 👆

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Keep going.

Trade with smaller quantities until your trading style and emotions align with the market.

Sooner or later, the market will reward you.

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“As soon as I fix my psychology I’ll be profitable.”

- Dude who has no edge, no system, doesn’t test anything, doesn’t journal, and just draws lines on charts.

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The market is not the problem, you are the problem.
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The trader who made it failed more times than the quitter even tried.

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📈 The Behavioral Gap: Why You Know One Thing but Do Another

There is always a difference between the profit you could make and the profit you actually end up with.
That space in the middle is the behavioral gap.

It forms slowly and quietly.
Every time you know the right move but choose something else.
You know a loss should be cut, yet you hold.
You know your plan matters, yet you drift from it.
The mind leans toward comfort. It feels safer to read more, analyze more, prepare more, than to put real money at risk and accept being wrong.

Meanwhile, the gap keeps widening.
Your knowledge grows, but your actions don’t.
And the market cares only about the latter.
It doesn’t reward theory or preparation. It rewards what you execute.

Closing this gap isn’t about learning another concept.
It starts when your decisions finally match what you already know.
When plans turn into action.
When discipline outweighs hesitation.

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Most "psychological" trading problems are symptoms of weak or ambiguous processes.

Weak process → uncertainty → stress → impulsiveness → losses → emotional damage.

Clear process → less ambiguity → lower stress → disciplined decisions → consistency.

Your inner game is a reflection of your outer process.

Your psychology can’t outperform your process.

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🗓 Key Events This Week

The US shutdown has officially ended, which means delayed economic data will finally be released. Markets now turn their focus to policy tone, labor trends, and Nvidia earnings.

Wednesday
• Fed Meeting Minutes.
Investors will look for clarity on rate cut timing and balance sheet plans.
• Nvidia $NVDA Earnings.
Implied move around 7.5 percent. With a 4.6T market cap this is roughly a 345B potential swing in value, big enough to move the entire market.

Thursday
• September Jobs Report.
Delayed due to the shutdown and now back in focus. Labor trends will shape expectations for future Fed action.
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Data.
• October Existing Home Sales.

Friday
• November Services and Manufacturing PMI.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

If jobs data and PMIs come in soft, yields may ease and give support to risk assets.
A strong labor print or sticky inflation expectations could revive hawkish sentiment.
Nvidia remains the wildcard. Strong numbers could boost tech and risk appetite while a miss may trigger sharp rotations.

This week will set the tone for how markets close out November.

‼️ Peter Thiel Just Nuked His NVIDIA Position

Peter Thiel wiped out his entire NVIDIA stake in one move. More than half a million shares gone. Zero left. For someone known for spotting bubbles before they burst, this shift is loud.

🔊 Thiel Macro dumped 537k NVIDIA shares in Q3

🔊 Cut Tesla by more than seventy percent at the same time

🔊 Portfolio size collapsed from 212 million to 74.4 million

🔊 Rotated into Microsoft and Apple instead of riding the AI hardware wave

🔊 NVIDIA still trades far above its long term valuation norms

Palantir, a company tied to Thiel and one of the biggest AI winners this year, is soaring. Yet he still bailed on AI hardware.

Thiel has seen hype cycles turn brutal. He watched Cisco lose most of its value after the dot com frenzy. His latest move hints he sees the same pattern forming around chips and training rigs today.

With NVIDIA earnings landing soon, big money is already shifting to safety. Thiel just moved first. The signal is clear enough for anyone who wants to see it.

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💸 Japan Just Killed the Global Money Printer

Japan’s bond yield hit 1.71 percent, the highest since 2008. Sounds small, but this number is shaking global markets more than most people realize. The country spent decades flooding the world with near-free money, and that flow just flipped.

🔊 Japan used to pump trillions into global bonds, keeping mortgages cheap and markets inflated

🔊 Rising yields turned the math upside down, adding billions in interest to Japan’s own debt

🔊 Japanese pension funds are now selling US Treasuries instead of buying

🔊 The yen carry trade is unwinding and forcing leveraged positions to close

🔊 Higher US yields risk hitting stocks, emerging markets and corporate credit

If Japan keeps tightening in December, markets won’t shrug it off. The world relied on Japanese liquidity for years, and that cushion is disappearing fast. This shift won’t stay under the radar for long.

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❕ Slowly, Then All at Once

🔴 Nancy Pelosi is retiring
One of the longest-serving political power players stepping off the stage.

🔴 Warren Buffett is ending the Berkshire annual letter
The voice of “old-school markets” going quiet after decades of setting the tone.

🔴 Michael Burry is closing his fund
The original “Big Short” guy tapping out instead of trying to time the next crash.

🔴 Peter Thiel just erased his entire NVIDIA position
Silicon Valley’s coldest reader of bubbles dumped his whole stake in one move and shifted to safer tech.

🔴 The White House says the last jobs report “would not be released to the public”
When core macro data goes dark, confidence in the story around the economy takes a hit.

🔴 Bitcoin is under 100k
Flagship risk asset losing altitude right when uncertainty is rising elsewhere.

🔴 Verizon is cutting fifteen thousand jobs
Big corporate cost-cutting, a classic tell that management is bracing for a weaker environment.

🔴 Kalshi traders price a thirty percent chance of recession next year
Real-money prediction markets quietly marking up the odds of a hard landing.

Moves like this don’t pile up by accident. When the headlines start to rhyme, the cycle is already turning.

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