The Fed is preparing to expand its balance sheet again for the first time since 2022. It sounds big, but the effect on markets will likely be small.
From December 1 the Fed will stop reducing its holdings of government bonds. Mortgage-backed securities will still mature, and the money from them will go into short-term Treasury bills. That keeps the balance sheet about the same size, so liquidity in the system barely changes for now.
As the US economy grows, banks need more reserves to stay stable. If reserves drop too low, funding markets can break, as they did in 2019. To avoid that, the Fed plans to slowly expand its balance sheet again in 2026.
Most analysts expect around 20 billion dollars in Treasury bill purchases each month, or about 240 billion a year. That is very small compared with the three trillion added during 2020.
The Fed will buy short-term Treasury bills, not long-term bonds. Real QE happens when the Fed buys longer bonds and removes risk from the market, which lifts asset prices. Buying bills just manages liquidity inside the banking system and is not meant to stimulate markets.
The move is slightly positive for liquidity but not enough to drive markets higher. The dollar may weaken a bit, and traders could get overly optimistic, but the effect is limited.
The Treasuryβs decisions matter more. It chooses how much debt to issue as short-term bills or long-term bonds. If it issues more long-term bonds, liquidity tightens and offsets what the Fed is doing.
β’ QT ends on December 1
β’ Balance sheet stays flat at first, then expands slowly
β’ Purchases focus on short-term bills, not long-term bonds
β’ The pace is very small, about 20 billion per month
β’ This is not QE, just liquidity maintenance
β’ The real market impact depends on how the Treasury manages its debt mix
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The new World Ahead 2026 report is out, and it paints a year that feels experimental, unstable and full of sharp turns. Here is a clean, readable breakdown in simple English.
The US celebrates its anniversary in the middle of deep political division. The country sees itself in two different colors. Even if Congress shifts, Trumpβs tariff-driven and executive-order style remains the center of power.
We are not going back to the Cold War, but the old global structure is fading. Instead of fixed blocs, the world is moving toward flexible βcoalitions of the willingβ built around trade, defense or climate. Instinct often beats protocol.
Gaza may hold a fragile pause, but Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar continue. russia and China maintain pressure in grey zones. New tension builds in the Arctic, cyberspace and underwater cable routes.
Europe tries to boost defense, keep growth alive, support trade and stay green. Doing all of this at once is unrealistic. Rising deficits and a stronger populist wave are the real challenges ahead.
With the US leaning into protectionism, China positions itself as a βreliable partnerβ for the Global South. Deals come quietly and pragmatically. With Washington, Beijing aims for tactical cooperation rather than open confrontation.
The global economy is slowing. Developed nations run on debt, raising the odds of bond-market stress. The change of Fed chair in May becomes a crucial moment for liquidity and risk appetite.
The AI investment boom might be covering real economic weaknesses. If the bubble pops, the hit spreads everywhere. Job anxiety grows the fastest among educated professionals.
Global emissions likely peaked. Clean tech accelerates in developing nations. Companies keep going green but stop shouting about it. Geothermal energy turns into a serious growth field.
The 2026 World Cup in North America may carry more tension than celebration. At the same time, the Enhanced Games in Las Vegas with fully allowed doping spark a new debate about what βfairβ even means.
Cheaper and stronger GLP-1 weight-loss drugs appear, even in pill form. Society now faces the moral question of whether pharmaceutical self-enhancement becomes a new baseline.
According to The Economist, 2026 becomes a year of experiments. Politics, economics, technology and even human biology move into untested territory. The boundaries between natural and artificial keep fading.
The world steps into a year where no one is following old instructions, and the future is shaped by rapid, messy, high-stakes trial and error.
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JUST IN: Disney's stock, $DIS, plunged more than 8% after the company reported revenue below expectations. The decline positions it for the steepest single-day drop in seven months.
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JUST IN: The Nasdaq 100 is experiencing losses of nearly -2% today amid the reopening of the US government.
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Most people know Michael Burry as the investor who saw the housing crash coming. Now he has stepped out of public markets right after taking fresh bearish positions on two of the biggest AI names. The timing is what makes the story so hard to ignore.
Scion Asset Management is no longer registered with the SEC. Once a fund is off that list, it no longer has to reveal its holdings. Burry effectively moved his trades out of public view.
Right before disappearing from the spotlight, Scion reported new positions against Palantir and Nvidia. Burry spent about nine million on options that let him sell Palantir at fifty dollars in 2027, far below where it trades today. Itβs a clear challenge to the current AI enthusiasm.
AI giants keep pouring huge sums into hardware that becomes outdated quickly, while spreading the costs across many years to keep earnings looking strong. On top of that, AI workloads keep driving energy use higher. The numbers look impressive from afar, but the foundations arenβt as simple as they seem.
Burry has lived through the stress of being early once. This time he made his move, shifted his fund into a private setup and removed himself from the constant attention that comes with public filings.
He may be right or wrong, but when the mind behind The Big Short quietly positions against the marketβs favorite story and goes offline right after, itβs a moment worth noting.
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JUST IN: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has risen above 21.0, indicating heightened market volatility.
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JUST IN: StubHub's stock, $STUB, plunged over 20% after the company released its Q3 2025 earnings and suspended future guidance.
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JUST IN: Bitcoin continues its decline, dropping below $97,000 for the first time since May 8.
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If you invested at the peak of the Nasdaq in March 2000, it would have been roughly 18 years before you were whole again: 15 years before the index reached the same point, plus another 3 for inflation.
π΄ Join the White Horse
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The current funding bill only reopens the government through January 30th.
Round 2 awaits.
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JUST IN: Bitcoin is falling toward $95,000, while Ether has declined by 11% over the past 24 hours. Liquidations in the crypto market are surging.
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All 4 major stocks have lost ~50% in under a month:
Investors are now confronting the fundamentals: 200-900x sales multiples, zero profits, widening losses, and commercial quantum still at least 15-30 years away.
Combined loss: $30B+ in market cap evaporated since mid-October peaks.
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JUST IN: The US Commerce Department has announced that the second reading for Q3 GDP will be released on November 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT).
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Tavi Costa points out that silver could be entering a true price discovery phase. And itβs happening while the gold to silver ratio sits near levels that historically marked major turning points.
Itβs the kind of setup that builds quiet pressure for a move, and the market looks like itβs getting ready to test how far silver can actually go.
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Every trade is a coin flip. Heads you win, tails you lose. It sounds simple, fair, even elegant, until itβs your real money on the line.
Flip once and it feels harmless. Flip a thousand times and the math starts to work against you. Lose three in a row and even three wins canβt bring you back. That is how risk works. It is not balanced. Every loss shrinks your base, and every next win gives you less.
Most traders do not fail because they are wrong. They fail because they bet too big.
The only real edge in markets is patience. Knowing when not to play. Waiting until the odds lean in your favor and sizing your position accordingly. Big when it matters, small or flat when it does not. Most of the time, that means doing nothing.
But doing nothing feels unnatural. The mind wants movement. So we force trades that are not there, chase volatility, and mistake activity for progress.
Patience is not a virtue. It is math. It is the understanding that survival depends on saying no much more often than yes.
The best traders do not flip more coins. They flip cleaner ones. They wait for edge, for clarity, for conviction. That is how randomness turns into performance.
Before your next trade, ask yourself one question.
Would you sign your name under it?
Every position is your signature. Every decision adds to your record. If you would not proudly own it, do not take it.
When something carries your name, it should be intentional.
And if you love the game, really love it, you should want it to last.
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Progress in trading is exponentially delayed.
The small iterations you make week after week, studying your wins, losses, and most importantly your own behavior, compound long before they show any visible results.
Then suddenly, all at once, you see massive improvements.
Seemingly out of nowhere.
β
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The small iterations you make week after week, studying your wins, losses, and most importantly your own behavior, compound long before they show any visible results.
Then suddenly, all at once, you see massive improvements.
Seemingly out of nowhere.
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π© Reach out: @strategy
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