There’s a lot of confusion about whether the US is facing another banking or dollar funding crisis. The answer is no. The recent stress in money markets comes from a technical liquidity squeeze, not a systemic problem.
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is basically the government’s bank account at the Federal Reserve. When the government collects taxes or sells new bonds, that money moves from private banks into the TGA. This temporarily drains liquidity from markets because the cash sits idle at the Fed.
Since the debt ceiling was raised in June, the Treasury has rebuilt this account to around 1 trillion dollars, overshooting its target of 850 billion. That extra 150 billion removed from circulation means fewer reserves for banks.
When reserves fall, short-term lending markets tighten. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which shows how much banks pay to borrow cash overnight, rose slightly. This is normal and far smaller than the 2019 “repo crisis.”
Some banks borrowed 50 billion dollars through the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility on October 31. This is just an overnight loan program that refreshes daily. It’s not QE and not cumulative. It simply ensures banks have access to short-term cash when reserves get tight.
Two things added pressure. The government slowed spending during the shutdown, keeping more cash in the TGA. At the same time, banks moved funds into the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility to clean up their balance sheets before month-end. Both drained liquidity temporarily.
These effects are already fading as repo usage and SOFR levels fall. If the TGA remains high, brief squeezes could return at the end of November and December. The Fed is ending quantitative tightening on December 1, which should ease reserve pressure.
This isn’t a crisis, just normal plumbing stress. Liquidity is tighter, but the system is working and the Fed’s tools are handling it as designed.
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JUST IN: Losses in the US stock market are accelerating, with the Nasdaq 100 now down nearly 2% on the day.
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JUST IN: Senior officials from the Trump administration have announced two deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, which include lower prices for obesity drugs.
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JUST IN: Kalshi has partnered with Google Finance to incorporate prediction markets into the platform.
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JUST IN: Fed's Hammack warns that the AI boom may parallel the massive infrastructure expansion seen during the internet build-out era.
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JUST IN: A Trump pharmaceutical event was interrupted after an attendee fell down.
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JUST IN: NVIDIA has suffered its sharpest three-day market value decline since the January DeepSeek selloff, losing roughly $440 billion since Monday. The stock is down almost 9% this week but remains up about 41% for the year.
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Forwarded from Crypto Insider
Every trader knows the feeling — you start with a plan, then emotion takes over. You overtrade, chase entries, check PnL every five minutes, and somehow end up repeating the same mistakes. The truth is, most trading problems come from behavior, not charts. Here’s how to fix the most common ones.
The more you trade, the more noise you create. Pick one asset and master its rhythm. Focus on understanding how it moves instead of trying to catch every wave across the market. Depth beats breadth.
You don’t need more trades, you need more data. Track setups, results, and patterns over time. When you shift your focus from “profit now” to “learn forever,” patience becomes easier.
Rules mean nothing without accountability. Create structure that forces you to check yourself — a trading partner, a private journal, or even public reporting. Discipline grows when your actions are visible to someone, even if it’s just you reviewing your own stats.
The fastest way to lose focus is to scroll through other people’s wins. Social media feeds on envy and false urgency. Mute the noise. Real opportunities don’t need hype to exist.
Unclear setups lead to hesitation. Define exactly what your entry, invalidation, and exit look like before the trade. Clarity removes doubt and keeps you calm under pressure.
When you hesitate, it’s usually because you don’t trust your data. Review your past trades and build conviction through numbers, not emotion. Confidence grows when your strategy is backed by evidence.
Trading is not random clicking. End every session with a report card — what went well, what didn’t, what you’ll improve tomorrow. A five-minute review compounds faster than any signal.
Emotional swings often come from oversized positions. If you can’t sleep at night, your size is wrong. Turn off the PnL display in dollars and think only in terms of process and execution.
Trading mastery starts when you stop trying to outsmart the market and start managing yourself. The edge isn’t in the chart — it’s in your behavior.
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JUST IN: The FAA has announced flight reductions at 40 major airports due to the ongoing government shutdown, with impacted locations including Anchorage, Atlanta, Boston, Baltimore, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Dallas Love, and Washington Reagan National.
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You keep blowing accounts because you keep tilting.
No profitable system will ever blow your account, it’s always your self-destructive behavior when something triggers tilt.
Your number one goal in trading is to avoid tilting as much as possible.
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No profitable system will ever blow your account, it’s always your self-destructive behavior when something triggers tilt.
Your number one goal in trading is to avoid tilting as much as possible.
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Markets had a rough session with weak jobs data, negative shutdown headlines, no AI capex boost, and more hawkish Fed talk weighing on sentiment.
Analysts expect the government shutdown to end by late next week, but until that happens, volatility will stay high and equities will struggle to find direction.
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Apple finalizing deal to use Google’s 1.2T parameter Gemini model for Siri overhaul. Launch spring 2026.
Apple positioning this as a temporary solution while building its own 1T parameter model.
$AAPL +0.04%, $GOOGL +2.44% on news.
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JUST IN: Job postings on Indeed declined 6.4% year-over-year in the week ending October 31, hitting the lowest level since February 2021.
• Postings have fallen 36.9% from the April 2022 peak.
• Available vacancies now stand just 1.7% above pre-pandemic levels.
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• Postings have fallen 36.9% from the April 2022 peak.
• Available vacancies now stand just 1.7% above pre-pandemic levels.
This softening in job postings suggests a cooling labor market, which could bolster expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and temper optimistic market sentiment toward economic growth.
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The AI boom is being built on debt and most of it sits off the radar.
By 2030, companies may need $3–8 trillion for AI data centers. That includes servers, infrastructure, and power. Traditional banks aren’t footing the bill. The money comes from private credit, insurance funds, pensions, and securitized deals that are hard to track. Just in September and October, $75 billion in AI-related debt hit the market.
Meta’s deal with Blue Owl Capital is the model. Blue Owl owns the data center, Meta runs it — and because Meta doesn’t own over half, the $30B debt stays off its balance sheet. It’s the same accounting trick banks used with SPVs before 2008.
All of this assumes AI delivers huge returns by 2028. If not, companies face massive liabilities tied to data centers that lose value fast. Chips age quickly, power grids lag behind, and every major tech firm — Oracle, Google, Amazon, Microsoft — is using similar structures with the same lenders. One failure could ripple through the entire private credit network.
Regulators like the Bank of England are already warning about leverage piling up in shadow markets. The system’s stability now depends on one thing: AI making enough money to justify trillions in hidden debt.
If that payoff doesn’t come, this “AI revolution” could turn into the next financial mess.
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Shareholders have voted in favor of Elon Musk’s record compensation package tied to Tesla’s next decade of growth.
If the plan succeeds, his stake will rise from 15% to 25%, locking in both influence and vision.
The message from shareholders is clear — keep building, and make it happen.
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JUST IN: US consumer sentiment has plummeted to its second-lowest level on record, now falling below the lows seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
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Most trading mistakes don’t come from bad charts. They come from skipping steps. This simple flowchart is one of the best reminders of how to trade with discipline instead of impulse.
Before every trade, ask yourself: does this setup actually fit my trading plan? Not your mood, not your gut — your plan. If it doesn’t, that’s an instant pass. No trade is better than a forced one.
Be honest. Are you seeing your setup exactly as defined? The right market conditions, clean entry criteria, and playbook confirmation. If you’re squinting or convincing yourself, it’s not there.
Check your risk limits, the number of trades for the day, and how your recent performance looks. If you’ve already taken two losses, step back. Rules exist to protect you from emotional spirals.
Never enter without knowing how you’ll leave. That means stop loss, profit target, and exit conditions already mapped out. A trade without an exit is a hope, not a strategy.
When all the boxes are ticked, you’ve found an A+ trade. That’s when confidence matters — not from emotion, but from preparation.
Trading isn’t about constant action. It’s about waiting for moments where everything aligns and you can act with clarity, not fear.
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JUST IN: In September, global broad money supply rose 6.7% year-over-year to a record $142 trillion.
• This indicator spans 169 economies, encompassing 99% of global GDP.
• Year-to-date, the money supply has grown 9.1%, largely propelled by China and the US.
• Since 2000, global money supply has expanded substantially.
The rapid increase in global money supply may fuel economic growth expectations but heighten inflation worries, potentially pressuring central banks to adjust interest rates and influencing equity and commodity markets.
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• This indicator spans 169 economies, encompassing 99% of global GDP.
• Year-to-date, the money supply has grown 9.1%, largely propelled by China and the US.
• Since 2000, global money supply has expanded substantially.
The rapid increase in global money supply may fuel economic growth expectations but heighten inflation worries, potentially pressuring central banks to adjust interest rates and influencing equity and commodity markets.
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JUST IN: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shifted into positive territory following a dramatic intraday reversal. Despite the surrounding volatility, the index remains just 3% from its all-time highs.
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JUST IN: President Trump has ordered the Department of Justice to immediately investigate meat packing companies accused of driving up beef prices.
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