🗓 Key Events This Week

Earnings and inflation take center stage as investors position ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Several high-profile reports from mega-caps and key macro prints will guide sentiment across risk assets.

Tuesday

• Netflix $NFLX earnings — first of the major tech results, focus on subscriber growth, ad-tier traction, and guidance for Q4. A strong print could lift streaming and tech sentiment.

Wednesday

• Tesla $TSLA earnings — market focus on margins, deliveries, and AI/robotaxi updates. High expectations after weak auto data last quarter.
• IBM $IBM earnings — a bellwether for enterprise IT and AI spending. Insights into corporate demand and cloud trends will set tone for the sector.

Thursday

• Intel $INTC earnings — important for semiconductor sentiment after recent volatility in chip names. Watch for gross margin and foundry roadmap updates.
• US Existing Home Sales (September) — key gauge of housing activity. Expected slowdown could confirm cooling demand under higher rates.

Friday

• US CPI Inflation (September) — the main macro event of the week. Headline expected to stay firm while core cools slightly. A surprise uptick could push yields higher and weigh on risk.
• S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI (October) — early look at business activity. Weak prints would signal further demand slowdown.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October) — updates on inflation expectations and household outlook.

Roughly 10% of the S&P 500 reports this week, led by tech and early cyclicals. Macro direction will hinge on Friday’s CPI, a softer read could ease yields and support risk, while strong inflation may trigger pre-FOMC repositioning into the dollar and bonds.

💬 Ray Dalio on Gold

Ray Dalio doesn’t see gold as a shiny metal or a speculative trade. He sees it as money in its purest and most fundamental form.

🟡 In his view, most investors make a basic mistake. They think of fiat currencies as money and gold as a commodity. In reality, fiat is debt that depends on governments keeping their promises, while gold is a form of money that settles transactions without creating new obligations. It has intrinsic value, it cannot be printed, and it does not depend on any institution’s credibility.

🟡 Dalio argues that throughout history, every major currency has been devalued or disappeared altogether, while gold has remained a stable store of value. It is the one form of money that survives political cycles, defaults, and wars. When governments print money to prevent debt crises, the real value of fiat declines, and the demand for non-fiat money, like gold, rises.

🟡 He also believes that gold has begun to replace US Treasuries as the world’s true risk-free asset. Central banks and institutional investors are quietly reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated debt and increasing their gold holdings. In long-term perspective, this shift marks a return to something more stable and independent of government credit.

🟡 For Dalio, gold belongs in every serious portfolio, not as a short-term trade but as strategic protection. He suggests that around ten to fifteen percent of one’s portfolio should be allocated to gold as a way to balance risks from inflation, debt bubbles, and loss of confidence in fiat systems.

🟡 As Dalio puts it, gold behaves like cash in preserving purchasing power, but unlike cash, it cannot be printed or devalued. That makes it one of the few assets that can protect wealth when trust in everything else begins to break down.

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❕ Hedge funds are sitting on $1.85T in hidden Treasuries

The Fed just discovered that hedge funds in the Cayman Islands hold roughly $1.85 trillion worth of U.S. Treasuries — over four times more than official data suggested.

🟡 The gap comes from the basis trade, where funds buy Treasuries and short futures to profit from tiny price gaps.

🟡 They borrow heavily via the repo market, using those Treasuries as collateral.

🟡 As bonds get rehypothecated (reused multiple times), tracking true ownership becomes nearly impossible.

This hidden leverage means the Treasury market might be far riskier than it looks. If these trades unwind at once, liquidity could vanish and the Fed would be flying blind into the next shock.

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🚨 Black Monday: 38 years since the largest one-day market crash

Today marks 38 years since Black Monday, the biggest one-day stock market crash in history. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 508 points, a massive 22.6% drop, while the S&P 500 declined by 20.5%. In just a few hours, over $500 billion in U.S. market value vanished, triggering a global panic and wiping out roughly $1.7 trillion worldwide.

🟡 What led to Black Monday?
This crash didn’t come without warning. After the 1982 recession, the stock market had been rapidly rising - the Dow had tripled, and in the seven months before the crash, surged another 44%. But by late 1987, valuations were extremely high, trade deficits were growing, inflation was rising, and the U.S. dollar was weakening. The Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, and Treasury Secretary James Baker hinted at devaluing the dollar, further eroding investor confidence. Markets had already fallen almost 10% in the days leading up to the crash.

🟡 The role of technology
One crucial factor was the rise of automated program trading, especially a strategy called portfolio insurance. Designed to limit losses by automatically selling futures as markets declined, it instead created a feedback loop of selling panic. This cascade overwhelmed the New York Stock Exchange’s systems, causing trading halts and outages. Panic spread rapidly, especially in the final hour and a half of trading.

🟡 The Federal Reserve’s response and recovery
The Federal Reserve acted swiftly. Chair Alan Greenspan promised liquidity support, encouraged banks to maintain lending, lowered interest rates slightly, and helped rescue critical financial firms. These quick actions stabilized markets and restored confidence. Remarkably, within two trading days, the Dow had regained more than half its losses, and by mid-1989, markets reached new highs fueled by strong economic fundamentals.

🟡 The lasting legacy
Black Monday changed market structure, the crash led to the introduction of circuit breakers to pause trading during rapid declines. It established investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would intervene during crises, what became known as the “Greenspan put.” Though a dark day in Wall Street history, it proved that resolute policy and solid economic foundations can convert panic into recovery.

Lessons from Black Monday remain highly relevant to today's markets with heightened risks and technological impacts influencing trading dynamics.

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💰 Gold Miners Are Quietly Printing Cash

When everyone’s busy chasing tech stocks, gold miners are quietly stacking record profits. The market might be underestimating just how much cash these companies are churning out while gold prices hover near all-time highs.

🟡 Free cash flow of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index surged 11x

🟡 Stock prices moved up, but not nearly enough to match the fundamentals

🟡 At current prices, miners are essentially “printing money”

The rally barely scratches the surface. The real gold rush might just be in the miners themselves.

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⏫ The Longer You Hold, The Higher Your Investing Win Rate

Trying to time the market?
The data says you’re better off simply extending your holding period.
Warren Buffet wasn’t joking - patience pays off for S&P 500 investors.

🟡 Over just 1 day, your odds are close to 50/50, almost a coin flip for gains or losses.

🟡 Hold for 1 year, and your chances of making money jump far above the average.

🟡 Stretch that to 10 years: more than 90% of all periods end profitably.

🟡 Stick with it for 20 years? Historically, every single holding period finishes in the green.

Forget chasing the perfect entry. Investing success isn’t about luck - it’s about time in the market, not timing the market.

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