Here is a good article explaining the mechanics behind the natural gas production and exports from the US:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/why-us-natural-gas-output-keeps-rising-prices-sink-2023-04-03/
In summary, when the oil production increases, it leads to the increase of the gas production and it cannot be really managed separately. But the export capacity is an independent thing and the storage capacity is another limitation.

Finally, we have this good thread https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1751277708980650027
that explains few more things:
- Henry Hub Gas prices are actual only for the US market. Many gas suppliers worldwide prefer long-term contracts and some link the gas price to the oil.
- Green energy factor can make the situation with the export capacity even worse. The demand will heavily depend on the US domestic consumption. And the supply can't be fully managed without cutting oil production.

What's the outcome:
- the longer US government wants to keep gasoline prices low, not to provoke further inflation, the longer domestic oil production will push the natural gas production.
- higher supply + limited storage + limited export capacities + limited demand = pressure on the market prices.
- we may even face a situation with a negative futures contract price similar that we saw with the WTI crude oil back in 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/oil-prices.html

Doesn't sound obvious but an increasing oil demand will make the production grow and gas prices in the US fall.

But let's imagine an alternative scenario. A new financial crisis comes and hits the global demand for oil. Oil prices go down - > production shrinks. A chance for the natural gas? Not really. While the production from oil producers may decrease, the other players including storage owners will use their chances to fill the void. And the demand won't really grow.

Are there any prospects at all of seeing any recovery in gas prices in the near future? Surprisingly yes. An acute unforeseen event that sharply reduces the supply of gas on the European or Asian market, as happened in early 2022. We don't believe in such events and don't prepare for them until they happen. Does this sound like a good strategy for a trader? You decide, having learned the information above.

The undoubted pearl of this collection

very good article explaining the nature of bubbles

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739529-microstrategy-mstr-stock-sell-feedback-loops-also-work-in-reverse

a rare moment that I read as a signal, not as business-as-usual noise:
1. https://www.state.gov/sanctions-on-irans-oil-trade-to-reimpose-maximum-pressure/
2. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraq-Reiterates-OPEC-Pledge-Ahead-of-Restart-of-Kurdistan-Oil-Exports.html
3. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo
4. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/eu-sanctions-2336106

If you ignore the politics, this appears to be a very cognitive article

https://endtropy.substack.com/p/trumps-enormous-c-length-win-over

With institutional adoption (ETFs, Derivatives, Tax and Investment Regulation), Bitcoin is not a joke anymore, it is a financial asset.
I don't understand Bitcoin.
I don't hold assets I don't understand.
I don't judge assets I don't understand.

More thoughts to follow.

Bitcoin is not money, because no goods are priced in Bitcoin.
When you pay for goods or services with Bitcoin, the price you pay is converted from the USD or another national fiat currency.
Bitcoin is not a commodity, because it's not used in production of any goods, food, or energy.
Bitcoin is not a share and not a bond, because holding a Bitcoin doesn't give you any interest in a form of a dividend or a coupon payment.
Neither is it a note, a swap, a loan or a repo agreement.
But still it is an asset being held, traded, hedged, without any legal obligations or liabilities from it's issuer (which is a decentralized network of CPUs running the algo).

There's no other way to calculate/project Bitcoin's fair value than modelling/guessing its supply and demand for a given moment in time. Which in turn are purely speculative for an asset without any cash flow.

It's much simpler to apply traditional valuation models to a cryptocurrency that generates cash flow.
As blockchains are transparent, it is also possible to measure the usage volume of a certain network and project it further.
Proof of stake networks complicate this calculation, but still provide a lot of data to monitor and use in projections.
For an end user, holding a cryptocurrency/coin generating cash flow with predictable but still floating yield is no different than holding a traditional financial asset.
But not Bitcoin...