Trade Like You Mean It
Doesn't sound obvious but an increasing oil demand will make the production grow and gas prices in the US fall.
But let's imagine an alternative scenario. A new financial crisis comes and hits the global demand for oil. Oil prices go down - > production shrinks. A chance for the natural gas? Not really. While the production from oil producers may decrease, the other players including storage owners will use their chances to fill the void. And the demand won't really grow.
Trade Like You Mean It
But let's imagine an alternative scenario. A new financial crisis comes and hits the global demand for oil. Oil prices go down - > production shrinks. A chance for the natural gas? Not really. While the production from oil producers may decrease, the other…
Are there any prospects at all of seeing any recovery in gas prices in the near future? Surprisingly yes. An acute unforeseen event that sharply reduces the supply of gas on the European or Asian market, as happened in early 2022. We don't believe in such events and don't prepare for them until they happen. Does this sound like a good strategy for a trader? You decide, having learned the information above.
Trade Like You Mean It
What's the outcome: - the longer US government wants to keep gasoline prices low, not to provoke further inflation, the longer domestic oil production will push the natural gas production. - higher supply + limited storage + limited export capacities + limited…
Business Insider
Texas natural-gas prices turn negative despite soaring heatwave temperatures
Traders told Reuters that the negative prices are due to planned pipeline maintenance from Kinder Morgan.
very good article explaining the nature of bubbles
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739529-microstrategy-mstr-stock-sell-feedback-loops-also-work-in-reverse
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739529-microstrategy-mstr-stock-sell-feedback-loops-also-work-in-reverse
Seeking Alpha
MicroStrategy: Feedback Loops Also Work In Reverse
We warn of a powerful self-reinforcing feedback loop in leveraged ETFs, hedging, and short coverings that may soon reverse. See more on MSTR stock here.
Trade Like You Mean It
very good article explaining the nature of bubbles https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739529-microstrategy-mstr-stock-sell-feedback-loops-also-work-in-reverse
Cointelegraph
Leveraged MicroStrategy ETF down 81% since November
The T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF, which is designed to offer leveraged long exposure to shares of Strategy, formerly Microstrategy, is down approximately 81% since peaking on Nov. 20.
a rare moment that I read as a signal, not as business-as-usual noise:
1. https://www.state.gov/sanctions-on-irans-oil-trade-to-reimpose-maximum-pressure/
2. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraq-Reiterates-OPEC-Pledge-Ahead-of-Restart-of-Kurdistan-Oil-Exports.html
3. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo
4. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/eu-sanctions-2336106
1. https://www.state.gov/sanctions-on-irans-oil-trade-to-reimpose-maximum-pressure/
2. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraq-Reiterates-OPEC-Pledge-Ahead-of-Restart-of-Kurdistan-Oil-Exports.html
3. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo
4. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/eu-sanctions-2336106
United States Department of State
Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Trade to Reimpose Maximum Pressure
The U.S. Department of State is today designating 16 entities and vessels for their involvement in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical industry. The Department of State and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) are concurrently…
If you ignore the politics, this appears to be a very cognitive article
https://endtropy.substack.com/p/trumps-enormous-c-length-win-over
https://endtropy.substack.com/p/trumps-enormous-c-length-win-over
Substack
Trump’s Enormous C-Length Win over China
Vertically integrated, biophysical economic research. Quantifying the Collapse.
With institutional adoption (ETFs, Derivatives, Tax and Investment Regulation), Bitcoin is not a joke anymore, it is a financial asset.
I don't understand Bitcoin.
I don't hold assets I don't understand.
I don't judge assets I don't understand.
More thoughts to follow.
I don't understand Bitcoin.
I don't hold assets I don't understand.
I don't judge assets I don't understand.
More thoughts to follow.
Bitcoin is not money, because no goods are priced in Bitcoin.
When you pay for goods or services with Bitcoin, the price you pay is converted from the USD or another national fiat currency.
Bitcoin is not a commodity, because it's not used in production of any goods, food, or energy.
Bitcoin is not a share and not a bond, because holding a Bitcoin doesn't give you any interest in a form of a dividend or a coupon payment.
Neither is it a note, a swap, a loan or a repo agreement.
But still it is an asset being held, traded, hedged, without any legal obligations or liabilities from it's issuer (which is a decentralized network of CPUs running the algo).
When you pay for goods or services with Bitcoin, the price you pay is converted from the USD or another national fiat currency.
Bitcoin is not a commodity, because it's not used in production of any goods, food, or energy.
Bitcoin is not a share and not a bond, because holding a Bitcoin doesn't give you any interest in a form of a dividend or a coupon payment.
Neither is it a note, a swap, a loan or a repo agreement.
But still it is an asset being held, traded, hedged, without any legal obligations or liabilities from it's issuer (which is a decentralized network of CPUs running the algo).
There's no other way to calculate/project Bitcoin's fair value than modelling/guessing its supply and demand for a given moment in time. Which in turn are purely speculative for an asset without any cash flow.
It's much simpler to apply traditional valuation models to a cryptocurrency that generates cash flow.
As blockchains are transparent, it is also possible to measure the usage volume of a certain network and project it further.
Proof of stake networks complicate this calculation, but still provide a lot of data to monitor and use in projections.
For an end user, holding a cryptocurrency/coin generating cash flow with predictable but still floating yield is no different than holding a traditional financial asset.
But not Bitcoin...
As blockchains are transparent, it is also possible to measure the usage volume of a certain network and project it further.
Proof of stake networks complicate this calculation, but still provide a lot of data to monitor and use in projections.
For an end user, holding a cryptocurrency/coin generating cash flow with predictable but still floating yield is no different than holding a traditional financial asset.
But not Bitcoin...
Trade Like You Mean It
I don't hold assets I don't understand.
Neither I short the assets I don't understand.