🤩 Hello, traders!
ℹ️Q4 2021 ( September) I've shared my opinion about the markets after the FED policy tightening decisions. It was "Market crash is coming! It is not a matter of IF. It is a matter of WHEN" Now we are assisting attractive market drop of nearly 8%.
ℹ️📉The interesting thing with this 8% is it happened after a long "layoff" at the top, which we don't have that often. The year started negatively but was still holding the range. Short-term trading is always suitable for both directions, but we are losing confidence in the long trades and trading them defensively with the general bearish market expectations.
What from here❓
📊I shared a detailed report on my Deep Dive Fundamental analysis on the US Business Cycle, Global manufacturing cycles, Inflation, Sectors, Gold, Silver, US Dollar, Copper and Gold relationship and of course, Bitcoin. I also share my analysis on sectors with deep-dive company fundamentals. On "everything dropping", Our stocks are rising because we prepared the right way.
We keep going. Nothing comes easy, but when the preparation meets the opportunity, comes "luck."
If you want to stay in touch with the changes in the markets, changes in the economy and how these changes affect markets, join our VIP Trading Channel (Find more info in the Pinned message at the top) and take your trading/ investing to the next level!
We're going to trade LIVE now. Join Dzhuneyt Vahid in the XM Advanced Room session and answer all of your market and trading questions!
Link to join: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Trade with our most trusted brokerage company:
ℹ️Q4 2021 ( September) I've shared my opinion about the markets after the FED policy tightening decisions. It was "Market crash is coming! It is not a matter of IF. It is a matter of WHEN" Now we are assisting attractive market drop of nearly 8%.
ℹ️📉The interesting thing with this 8% is it happened after a long "layoff" at the top, which we don't have that often. The year started negatively but was still holding the range. Short-term trading is always suitable for both directions, but we are losing confidence in the long trades and trading them defensively with the general bearish market expectations.
What from here❓
📊I shared a detailed report on my Deep Dive Fundamental analysis on the US Business Cycle, Global manufacturing cycles, Inflation, Sectors, Gold, Silver, US Dollar, Copper and Gold relationship and of course, Bitcoin. I also share my analysis on sectors with deep-dive company fundamentals. On "everything dropping", Our stocks are rising because we prepared the right way.
We keep going. Nothing comes easy, but when the preparation meets the opportunity, comes "luck."
If you want to stay in touch with the changes in the markets, changes in the economy and how these changes affect markets, join our VIP Trading Channel (Find more info in the Pinned message at the top) and take your trading/ investing to the next level!
We're going to trade LIVE now. Join Dzhuneyt Vahid in the XM Advanced Room session and answer all of your market and trading questions!
Link to join: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Trade with our most trusted brokerage company:
Xm
Advanced Room | XM Live Education | Daily Trading Courses
The XM Advanced Room offers a deep dive into CFD & forex trading. Our experts debate various strategies & analysis methodologies in live daily trading courses.
All right! A lot questions about the market situation.
From "Is it good to close the profit" to "Can you explain the strategy, pattern, the signal?" now for "Can you explain why do you expect market crash since September?", "Which news you are looking to make analysis?" which is so great and interesting also for me to answer, growing as a trader, members of Trade-Insider VIP Channel!
I can't express my feelings on such lovely feedback from you guys!
I try to answer questions related channel's job, urgent questions and then secondary, answering educational ones. And also, apologies for the slow answer sometimes, but I am not available to answer all the questions quickly due to my busy daily routine.
So let's get back to the current market situation.
S&P 500 is down 8.83%, with a pretty fast drop from its highs. Yes, we predicted it. I adjusted my stock portfolio, closed what I was prepared to close on 2021 November at the first top and didn't wait for the New Year Rally, even though I traded it. The uncertainty was very high for me, and I acted by the plan. I am pleased about the decision I made. And I also warned you that is coming.
I am unusually confident on the upcoming drama with the markets and not only.
⚠️Let's learn something about the market's smart money in the market and how things move.
Over the last four decades, the US policies pulled a lot of capital into the stock market, both domestic and international, which has some pros and cons.
Countries have their own priorities, and those important priorities can change over time with the changes in the economy and political figures.
I will use this comparison to understand how big the US stock market is. The US market capitalization currently represents more than 60% of the global stock market capitalization, despite US GDP is about23% of global GDP.
This also means that the US economy is more reliant on consumer spending external financing than any other major economy. As a result, the drop in the stock market will negatively affect consumer spending, which will slow economic growth and, therefore, foreign investments.
What does this mean? If the stock market drops for one quarter it will evaporate an amount of net worth that is equal more or less to about half of the US GDP. I don't say that GDP will drop by 50%. I am saying that a massive amount of purchasing power relative to the size of the economy would go away even if not a big crash happens, but a moderate drop occurs and remains down for a while.
Many traders and analysts think that this sky rocking in the stock market comes from high revenues and more product selling from the companies than in previous decades. However, the opposite is true. The companies in the US are selling fewer products outside today when the market capitalisation is 200% of the GDP compared to their sales ten years ago when the market capitalisation was 90% of GDP. So, this means that US companies didn't expand outside of the US as thought. Instead, stock prices rose due to higher corporate earnings inside the USA, especially higher valuation of those earnings rather than international expansion.
What can cause this boost effect? Let's mentions some of them:
1) Interest rates lower and lower
2) Corporate Tax Cuts
3) Recycle Trade Deficit starting with the petrodollar system back in 1971, but that's a long story. This system's accumulated US trade deficits, and associated policies are a staggering $14 trillion. All those dollars from the trade deficit are surplus to foreign countries. Or with other words, everyone should pay "everything" in dollars, so they buy dollars, which makes USD stable over time (reserve currency), and their earned USD goes back into the attractive US assets.
For reference, the value of US equities is passing $12 trillion. From the largest creditor, the US became the biggest debtor nation globally.
From "Is it good to close the profit" to "Can you explain the strategy, pattern, the signal?" now for "Can you explain why do you expect market crash since September?", "Which news you are looking to make analysis?" which is so great and interesting also for me to answer, growing as a trader, members of Trade-Insider VIP Channel!
I can't express my feelings on such lovely feedback from you guys!
I try to answer questions related channel's job, urgent questions and then secondary, answering educational ones. And also, apologies for the slow answer sometimes, but I am not available to answer all the questions quickly due to my busy daily routine.
So let's get back to the current market situation.
S&P 500 is down 8.83%, with a pretty fast drop from its highs. Yes, we predicted it. I adjusted my stock portfolio, closed what I was prepared to close on 2021 November at the first top and didn't wait for the New Year Rally, even though I traded it. The uncertainty was very high for me, and I acted by the plan. I am pleased about the decision I made. And I also warned you that is coming.
I am unusually confident on the upcoming drama with the markets and not only.
⚠️Let's learn something about the market's smart money in the market and how things move.
Over the last four decades, the US policies pulled a lot of capital into the stock market, both domestic and international, which has some pros and cons.
Countries have their own priorities, and those important priorities can change over time with the changes in the economy and political figures.
I will use this comparison to understand how big the US stock market is. The US market capitalization currently represents more than 60% of the global stock market capitalization, despite US GDP is about23% of global GDP.
This also means that the US economy is more reliant on consumer spending external financing than any other major economy. As a result, the drop in the stock market will negatively affect consumer spending, which will slow economic growth and, therefore, foreign investments.
What does this mean? If the stock market drops for one quarter it will evaporate an amount of net worth that is equal more or less to about half of the US GDP. I don't say that GDP will drop by 50%. I am saying that a massive amount of purchasing power relative to the size of the economy would go away even if not a big crash happens, but a moderate drop occurs and remains down for a while.
Many traders and analysts think that this sky rocking in the stock market comes from high revenues and more product selling from the companies than in previous decades. However, the opposite is true. The companies in the US are selling fewer products outside today when the market capitalisation is 200% of the GDP compared to their sales ten years ago when the market capitalisation was 90% of GDP. So, this means that US companies didn't expand outside of the US as thought. Instead, stock prices rose due to higher corporate earnings inside the USA, especially higher valuation of those earnings rather than international expansion.
What can cause this boost effect? Let's mentions some of them:
1) Interest rates lower and lower
2) Corporate Tax Cuts
3) Recycle Trade Deficit starting with the petrodollar system back in 1971, but that's a long story. This system's accumulated US trade deficits, and associated policies are a staggering $14 trillion. All those dollars from the trade deficit are surplus to foreign countries. Or with other words, everyone should pay "everything" in dollars, so they buy dollars, which makes USD stable over time (reserve currency), and their earned USD goes back into the attractive US assets.
For reference, the value of US equities is passing $12 trillion. From the largest creditor, the US became the biggest debtor nation globally.
4) Passive Investing
The everything holders for the last decades. People became billionaires by investing only in the stock market; it's just huge. Buyers do not need to close anything. Hold and grow your wealth. Many 401k plans pour money every week into the S&P 500. It feels so normal, like having three meals a day. That's why equities % of household assets rise massively against the real estate market. Which means that we have to ask ourselves where the buyer come from. Will people allocate their capital more into the stock market, and the stock market go higher? Will the US market eventually reach 65% from 62%? I don't believe it will, but as I said in my XM Live sessions: "Could be, but the higher it goes, the heavier it gets." and you will see and hear me saying it more and more.
What's, are the potential catalysts for the market crash?
1) US10Y: the US 10 Year Treasury started trending sideways or upside as the strong bullish trend started in December and is still going up to the stratosphere, which is not good for the stock markets.
2) The second reason I say could be the US corporate tax doesn't keep going lower, which is like steroids to the companies. And as of now, there seems to be a less political appetite for further rate cuts.
3) China, supply chain problems, global issues, the cost-benefit ratio and the deflationary effect of labour offshoring could reduce as the world seems not going to expand its globalization.
4) More and more we hear about anti-trust politics against the big cap companies, which are the backbone, the driving force of capital markets.
5) The commodity market's Supply / Demand situation could shift from abundance to scarcity, resulting in higher average inflation for the '20s than the '10s decades.
6) Equity valuation is high, and required ongoing funds flow could be insufficient to hold the current levels in the market, especially after FED monetary policy tightening. And the upward momentum turns to downturn momentum very fast as it started already.
What is important to for this week? And what we will talk and trade more intra-week?
From USA, market is in focus on Fed's interest rate decision which will affect US Indices and the general market sentiment
From UK, market is expecting hawkish BoE as well
From Europe we already have green PMI numbers translated bearish for EUR as an initial reaction
Q4 Inflation rates eyed in Australia
And not last but least BoC interest rate decision.
In Stock Market, I mentioned that I am looking outside of the USA more and more. I had exposure to Russian Sberbank and Lukoil, which I liquidated in late December at the Double Top technical formation and the forming geopolitical risks. They technically look very bearish and fundamentally regarding Russian military forces massing near Ukraine’s border.
If you want to know what I am doing, how do I prepare myself for the upcoming changes in the economy and markets, join my private VIP Channel, where I share information about the markets, trade ideas, investing ideas, deep-dive fundamental analysis on stocks, macroeconomic analysis and many more. We're not a pure technical signal channel; we are beyond this.
Some western nations including the United Kingdom and the United States have sent weapons to Ukraine in response. The UK in particular said that it sent anti-tank weapons.
A key backdrop for this is that the Russian government does not like the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, since it would expand NATO’s reach into a country that shares a big border with Russia.
The everything holders for the last decades. People became billionaires by investing only in the stock market; it's just huge. Buyers do not need to close anything. Hold and grow your wealth. Many 401k plans pour money every week into the S&P 500. It feels so normal, like having three meals a day. That's why equities % of household assets rise massively against the real estate market. Which means that we have to ask ourselves where the buyer come from. Will people allocate their capital more into the stock market, and the stock market go higher? Will the US market eventually reach 65% from 62%? I don't believe it will, but as I said in my XM Live sessions: "Could be, but the higher it goes, the heavier it gets." and you will see and hear me saying it more and more.
What's, are the potential catalysts for the market crash?
1) US10Y: the US 10 Year Treasury started trending sideways or upside as the strong bullish trend started in December and is still going up to the stratosphere, which is not good for the stock markets.
2) The second reason I say could be the US corporate tax doesn't keep going lower, which is like steroids to the companies. And as of now, there seems to be a less political appetite for further rate cuts.
3) China, supply chain problems, global issues, the cost-benefit ratio and the deflationary effect of labour offshoring could reduce as the world seems not going to expand its globalization.
4) More and more we hear about anti-trust politics against the big cap companies, which are the backbone, the driving force of capital markets.
5) The commodity market's Supply / Demand situation could shift from abundance to scarcity, resulting in higher average inflation for the '20s than the '10s decades.
6) Equity valuation is high, and required ongoing funds flow could be insufficient to hold the current levels in the market, especially after FED monetary policy tightening. And the upward momentum turns to downturn momentum very fast as it started already.
What is important to for this week? And what we will talk and trade more intra-week?
From USA, market is in focus on Fed's interest rate decision which will affect US Indices and the general market sentiment
From UK, market is expecting hawkish BoE as well
From Europe we already have green PMI numbers translated bearish for EUR as an initial reaction
Q4 Inflation rates eyed in Australia
And not last but least BoC interest rate decision.
In Stock Market, I mentioned that I am looking outside of the USA more and more. I had exposure to Russian Sberbank and Lukoil, which I liquidated in late December at the Double Top technical formation and the forming geopolitical risks. They technically look very bearish and fundamentally regarding Russian military forces massing near Ukraine’s border.
If you want to know what I am doing, how do I prepare myself for the upcoming changes in the economy and markets, join my private VIP Channel, where I share information about the markets, trade ideas, investing ideas, deep-dive fundamental analysis on stocks, macroeconomic analysis and many more. We're not a pure technical signal channel; we are beyond this.
Some western nations including the United Kingdom and the United States have sent weapons to Ukraine in response. The UK in particular said that it sent anti-tank weapons.
A key backdrop for this is that the Russian government does not like the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, since it would expand NATO’s reach into a country that shares a big border with Russia.
I don't have very significant concerns about the Russian companies' risks. In my view, the biggest risk would be if US investors are forced by sanctions to divest from Russian equities. This would mainly be a risk for the investors themselves (selling at low prices), not the underlying companies in the long run. But investors outside the USA could think about this as an investment opportunity. However, I believe that waiting with the "snipper" is the better option right now instead of rushing with buys at the current levels.
In addition to putting a lot of lives at risk (the worst part of all of it), this situation represents another tail risk for global energy markets that are already rather tight on supply. More about his will be discussed in the VIP Channel this week.
GOLD - the gold price has held up reasonably well recently, in the face of sharp increases in nominal and real Treasury yields. More often than not, this sharp jump in real rates (nominal yields minus TIPS yields) over a compressed time period would lead to a drop in gold. That sort of behavior can signify a market regime shift. Gold has built a very strong base around $1,700.
The gold market seems to be thinking that the jump in real rates is overdone and is shrugging it off, or is factoring in a lot of other variables (weakening dollar index, economic growth deceleration, choppy equity performance, rising geopolitical conflict). Basically, I think the gold market is taking the “under” on the Fed’s ability to tighten policy.
Taking the S&P 500 drop and Gold price rise often I share this is a sign of a panic and hot greed. We will share a deep-dive analysis this week for the markets and the sentiment.
👉🏼For more information about my channel, find detailed information on the Pinned message👆
Open a trading account with my most trusted brokerage company, where you can trade stocks I trade, forex and commodities I trade. Here is the link: https://bit.ly/tradewithprofessionals
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In addition to putting a lot of lives at risk (the worst part of all of it), this situation represents another tail risk for global energy markets that are already rather tight on supply. More about his will be discussed in the VIP Channel this week.
GOLD - the gold price has held up reasonably well recently, in the face of sharp increases in nominal and real Treasury yields. More often than not, this sharp jump in real rates (nominal yields minus TIPS yields) over a compressed time period would lead to a drop in gold. That sort of behavior can signify a market regime shift. Gold has built a very strong base around $1,700.
The gold market seems to be thinking that the jump in real rates is overdone and is shrugging it off, or is factoring in a lot of other variables (weakening dollar index, economic growth deceleration, choppy equity performance, rising geopolitical conflict). Basically, I think the gold market is taking the “under” on the Fed’s ability to tighten policy.
Taking the S&P 500 drop and Gold price rise often I share this is a sign of a panic and hot greed. We will share a deep-dive analysis this week for the markets and the sentiment.
👉🏼For more information about my channel, find detailed information on the Pinned message👆
Open a trading account with my most trusted brokerage company, where you can trade stocks I trade, forex and commodities I trade. Here is the link: https://bit.ly/tradewithprofessionals
My website: www.trade-insider.com
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/tradeinsiderfx
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tradeinsiderfx/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TradeInsider2
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnGDUEaWXApaC1VBA3Bx_Bw
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USDCHF Double Bottom Breakout with a possible 2R buy setup.
Good bounce on USD vs CHF today.
The price broke out and tested the resistance. We buy short-term with lower risk than our standard risk.
It's not considered as a strong signal on the current environment duo to FED interest rate decision tomorrow.
Good bounce on USD vs CHF today.
The price broke out and tested the resistance. We buy short-term with lower risk than our standard risk.
It's not considered as a strong signal on the current environment duo to FED interest rate decision tomorrow.
🗣Hello traders,
Happy New Week! 🤩
⚠️In today's VIP Channel, we traded Gold and Silver for the upside.
✅Our Gold trades are running with +80 and +100 pips
✅Our Silver trade is also running with +32 and +18 pips
Nice opening of the week 🤩
Last weak was the slow week in terms of analysis and trading in the VIP channel, but we had no loss again: Quality over Quantity
🟢USDCHF bounced by the analysis
✅GBPAUD TP HIT +50 pips 🤩🎯
✅AUDUSD TP HIT +70 pips 🥳🎯
✅S&P 500 TP2 HIT +1000 points 🥳🎯
☑️CHFJPY closed manually at break-even, and the price bounced afterwards 😤
🔘NZDJPY Break-even hit 0 pips after +35 pips profit 😤
Happy New Week! 🤩
⚠️In today's VIP Channel, we traded Gold and Silver for the upside.
✅Our Gold trades are running with +80 and +100 pips
✅Our Silver trade is also running with +32 and +18 pips
Nice opening of the week 🤩
Last weak was the slow week in terms of analysis and trading in the VIP channel, but we had no loss again: Quality over Quantity
🟢USDCHF bounced by the analysis
✅GBPAUD TP HIT +50 pips 🤩🎯
✅AUDUSD TP HIT +70 pips 🥳🎯
✅S&P 500 TP2 HIT +1000 points 🥳🎯
☑️CHFJPY closed manually at break-even, and the price bounced afterwards 😤
🔘NZDJPY Break-even hit 0 pips after +35 pips profit 😤
🔴XM LIVE - ADVANCED ROOM with Dzhuneyt Vahid with another legend trader🔴
Join us now: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Link to join: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Join us now: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Link to join: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
S&P 500 has been interestingly bullish for the last three trading days.
I agree that the US equity market is "playing" as the safe-haven for the current situation on the war between Russia and Ukraine.
My bias was bearish, and we got approximately a 15% drop on S&P500, 22% on Nasdaq and 13% on Dow Jones since then.
I expect a further drop on the midterm, but it is pretty tricky for short-term predictions with the current craziness.
We will follow price action for short-term trading and combine deep dive fundamentals in combination with price action for mid and long-term trading.
Technically, we have H4 inverted head & shoulders and the price is at the neckline resistance level. Breaking above it will be bullish signal with targets 4450, 4580.
Rejecting from this zone could be panic sell drop because of the war developments and FED decisions on March 16-17th.
For More analysis and trade ideas, you can join the VP Channel! We will share more analysis also in the FREE Channel from March. Stay tuned
I agree that the US equity market is "playing" as the safe-haven for the current situation on the war between Russia and Ukraine.
My bias was bearish, and we got approximately a 15% drop on S&P500, 22% on Nasdaq and 13% on Dow Jones since then.
I expect a further drop on the midterm, but it is pretty tricky for short-term predictions with the current craziness.
We will follow price action for short-term trading and combine deep dive fundamentals in combination with price action for mid and long-term trading.
Technically, we have H4 inverted head & shoulders and the price is at the neckline resistance level. Breaking above it will be bullish signal with targets 4450, 4580.
Rejecting from this zone could be panic sell drop because of the war developments and FED decisions on March 16-17th.
For More analysis and trade ideas, you can join the VP Channel! We will share more analysis also in the FREE Channel from March. Stay tuned
Latest trades and setups in the VIP Channel:
✅GBPUSD TP HIT +75 pips
✅EURAUD TP HIT +165 pips
🔘CHFJPY break even hit
✅S&P 500 TP HIT +18 points
✅BTCUSD TP HIT +$4500 move
Join us and get our March 2022 deep-dive fundamental analysis, technical setups, trade ideas with entry and exit strategies and many more.
The Fundamental Report Covers:
Macro section of the report:
- US business cycle analysis
- Credit markets
- Inflation and policy updates
- Geopolitical situation
- US Dollar
- Gold
- Crypto: BTC, ETH deep dive fundamental analysis
Micro section of the report covers:
- Sectors outlook
- Deep-dive fundamental analysis on a minimum of three stocks.
The 2nd monthly report will be a mid-term technical analysis on:
- Gold
- Silver
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- Three to Five FX crosses
- Three Exotic pairs
The 3rd monthly report will cover the seasonal analysis of essential commodities and trading opportunities:
- Soft Commodities
- Agriculture
- Energy
If you need deep-dive detailed analysis on any stock, sector or instrument, contact the channel's admin!
Good luck and stay safe!
✅GBPUSD TP HIT +75 pips
✅EURAUD TP HIT +165 pips
🔘CHFJPY break even hit
✅S&P 500 TP HIT +18 points
✅BTCUSD TP HIT +$4500 move
Join us and get our March 2022 deep-dive fundamental analysis, technical setups, trade ideas with entry and exit strategies and many more.
The Fundamental Report Covers:
Macro section of the report:
- US business cycle analysis
- Credit markets
- Inflation and policy updates
- Geopolitical situation
- US Dollar
- Gold
- Crypto: BTC, ETH deep dive fundamental analysis
Micro section of the report covers:
- Sectors outlook
- Deep-dive fundamental analysis on a minimum of three stocks.
The 2nd monthly report will be a mid-term technical analysis on:
- Gold
- Silver
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- Three to Five FX crosses
- Three Exotic pairs
The 3rd monthly report will cover the seasonal analysis of essential commodities and trading opportunities:
- Soft Commodities
- Agriculture
- Energy
If you need deep-dive detailed analysis on any stock, sector or instrument, contact the channel's admin!
Good luck and stay safe!
✅GBPNZD completed the target
The price formed a double top pattern with three bullish solid legs at the top of the trend.
The previous pattern we traded was the inverted head and shoulders, which trade was 2nd best.
On the short side, we found that the retail trader's sentiment was at its extremes, and the risking power of NZD on expecting rate hikes was a good signal to respect the pattern and trade it.
We closed the first position from the highs at the planned targets. The latest entry we took was a day after we completed our profits. The reason here was the strong bear counterattack for the little bullish attempt. The target remained the same, and the entry changed accordingly.
The current price area is the key one. If we have a technical bounce from the support, we will check about the potential catalyst, and if we get bull confirmation, we will buy for the favourable risk/reward ratio.
If the price breaks down below the mentioned zone, we will keep our bearish for some time.
🔴bit.ly/BasicRoom
The price formed a double top pattern with three bullish solid legs at the top of the trend.
The previous pattern we traded was the inverted head and shoulders, which trade was 2nd best.
On the short side, we found that the retail trader's sentiment was at its extremes, and the risking power of NZD on expecting rate hikes was a good signal to respect the pattern and trade it.
We closed the first position from the highs at the planned targets. The latest entry we took was a day after we completed our profits. The reason here was the strong bear counterattack for the little bullish attempt. The target remained the same, and the entry changed accordingly.
The current price area is the key one. If we have a technical bounce from the support, we will check about the potential catalyst, and if we get bull confirmation, we will buy for the favourable risk/reward ratio.
If the price breaks down below the mentioned zone, we will keep our bearish for some time.
🔴bit.ly/BasicRoom
Hello traders,
The next premium report will come out as usual on March 6th, and the focus will be on a lengthy macro section, to flesh out the various implications that the rapid change in geopolitics means for various asset classes.
In short, the comparison I've been making between the 2020s and the 1940s "wartime finance" eras has unfortunately just become even more direct, now involving kinetic war and increased separation between various countries (and between people and the resources they need, such as Europe and energy).
Some Trade-Insider VIP Channel members and even my close friends have asked about buying Russian assets as a deep-value contrarian trade. While this may work out for some, I do not recommend putting any new money into them unless you are entirely willing to lose it or have it be illiquid for a very long time, particularly for investors who are American/European or otherwise in countries that are sanctioning Russia.
The Moscow Stock Exchange is closed, and many brokers won't let investors even buy these types of assets in foreign ETFs/ADRs at the moment. I have not made any portfolio changes, and am viewing Russian assets as a potential war write-off, since they have been struck by among the biggest of tail risks (not just a Crimea-like incursion into eastern Ukraine, but instead a decision by Putin to launch a major assault across all of Ukraine and towards their capital).
MSCI and FTSE are de-listing Russian stocks from their broad emerging market indices. If there is a change in the situation, some of these may become contrarian opportunities, but at the moment with markets closed and the liquidity/legality situation unclear, investors should be cautious of throwing good money after bad.
Most broad assets/indices other than Russian assets have been doing reasonably well since the invasion. Uranium and bitcoin have done particularly well.
Overall, much like how COVID-19 caused or accelerated a lot of digital changes (remote work in particular, as well as location shifts towards secondary cities), recent weeks have likely accelerated some changes to the global monetary system, the creation and usage of separate payment channels, a rethink by some countries in terms of which assets to hold as FX reserves, and overall global energy/commodity security. I'll be exploring these issues in the upcoming premium report this Sunday to Tuesday, and in further comments in the VIP Channel, as this is a very fluid situation.
Best regards,
Dzhuneyt Vahid
The next premium report will come out as usual on March 6th, and the focus will be on a lengthy macro section, to flesh out the various implications that the rapid change in geopolitics means for various asset classes.
In short, the comparison I've been making between the 2020s and the 1940s "wartime finance" eras has unfortunately just become even more direct, now involving kinetic war and increased separation between various countries (and between people and the resources they need, such as Europe and energy).
Some Trade-Insider VIP Channel members and even my close friends have asked about buying Russian assets as a deep-value contrarian trade. While this may work out for some, I do not recommend putting any new money into them unless you are entirely willing to lose it or have it be illiquid for a very long time, particularly for investors who are American/European or otherwise in countries that are sanctioning Russia.
The Moscow Stock Exchange is closed, and many brokers won't let investors even buy these types of assets in foreign ETFs/ADRs at the moment. I have not made any portfolio changes, and am viewing Russian assets as a potential war write-off, since they have been struck by among the biggest of tail risks (not just a Crimea-like incursion into eastern Ukraine, but instead a decision by Putin to launch a major assault across all of Ukraine and towards their capital).
MSCI and FTSE are de-listing Russian stocks from their broad emerging market indices. If there is a change in the situation, some of these may become contrarian opportunities, but at the moment with markets closed and the liquidity/legality situation unclear, investors should be cautious of throwing good money after bad.
Most broad assets/indices other than Russian assets have been doing reasonably well since the invasion. Uranium and bitcoin have done particularly well.
Overall, much like how COVID-19 caused or accelerated a lot of digital changes (remote work in particular, as well as location shifts towards secondary cities), recent weeks have likely accelerated some changes to the global monetary system, the creation and usage of separate payment channels, a rethink by some countries in terms of which assets to hold as FX reserves, and overall global energy/commodity security. I'll be exploring these issues in the upcoming premium report this Sunday to Tuesday, and in further comments in the VIP Channel, as this is a very fluid situation.
Best regards,
Dzhuneyt Vahid
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ℹ️BTCUSD chart looks very interesting today
📊Highly correlated BTC with US equity markets is not following the US100 price drop that much. Yes, it has dropped during the Asia session, but it seems bulls are taking over, isn't it?
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📊Highly correlated BTC with US equity markets is not following the US100 price drop that much. Yes, it has dropped during the Asia session, but it seems bulls are taking over, isn't it?
👀We keep a close eye on Crypto markets as well. If you want to take advantage of our Deep-Dive Fundamental Crypto market Analysis, do not lose time and join the VIP Channel!
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US100 bullish technical divergence
H4 bullish close will be an excellent bullish signal to buy with targets of 13860 and 14380 levels short-term.
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H4 bullish close will be an excellent bullish signal to buy with targets of 13860 and 14380 levels short-term.
Join our Live Trading Session in XM NOW: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
✅Oil continues with its bearish trend.
Technical short trade on the break down completed the target. Now we are looking for reversal signals to close the position and watch for potential buy short-term signals.
The reason we make more short-term trades here is because of uncertainty. If Oil exporters manage to increase the output, we might see a nice oil drop, which will be good for the global economy.
Let's keep an eye on further developments!
If Oil breaks above the mentioned level on the chart, we can take a long position. If it breaks below, we will hold the short one.
👉🏼Live Trading Session with Dzhuneyt Vahid in XM Advanced room:
bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Technical short trade on the break down completed the target. Now we are looking for reversal signals to close the position and watch for potential buy short-term signals.
The reason we make more short-term trades here is because of uncertainty. If Oil exporters manage to increase the output, we might see a nice oil drop, which will be good for the global economy.
Let's keep an eye on further developments!
If Oil breaks above the mentioned level on the chart, we can take a long position. If it breaks below, we will hold the short one.
👉🏼Live Trading Session with Dzhuneyt Vahid in XM Advanced room:
bit.ly/AdvancedRoom