Rate unchanged. Let’s eait for dovish Powell in 30 minutes

The dollar went down, gold went up, and overall, Powell was dovish. Traders are even giving higher odds for a 70 bps cut this year. The only thing that's not looking optimistic is Bitcoin. As soon as the news about Iran's retaliatory strike came out, we’re back in the red zone again...

IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER ORDERS RETALIATORY ATTACK ON ISRAEL: NYT

TRADERS SEE 70BPS OF FED CUTS THIS YEAR, UP FROM 64BPS EARLIER

It's strange to see all the theories about the drop, everything from "the whales know something" to "the cut in the Japanese rate crashed Bitcoin." How can they not see the start of WW3 right under their noses?

BLINKEN TOLD G7 IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH COULD ATTACK ISRAEL IN NEXT 24 HOURS - AXIOS

ISRAEL COULD PRE-EMPTIVELY STRIKE IRAN IF INTELLIGENCE SHOWS ATTACK IS IMMINENT - TIMES OF ISRAEL

Although we've recovered a bit, geopolitical fears haven't gone away. Reports of an impending response from Iran are starting to surface again, and a market correction has immediately followed. This time, they're saying it could happen on Thursday or Friday. Overall, the market has enough reasons for recovery, from optimism about interest rates, and so on. However, it's crucial to get through the events in the Middle East. Even if a strike happens, and like last time, everyone pretends it missed the target to avoid escalation, we'll see a quick recovery. But until the situation is resolved, growth will be limited, and investors are still hesitant to jump into long positions…

Something is starting to brew here again. The markets have already begun pricing in this negativity since yesterday. As I said, if the situation worsens, we’ll fall even further. But if there are signs of de-escalation, we’ll bounce back up very quickly, because, at the moment, this negativity is the only thing we have that's holding back growth.

ISRAELI BROADCASTING AUTHORITY: AIR FORCE COMMANDER PREVENTS PILOTS FROM LEAVING ISRAEL IMMEDIATELY IN PREPARATION FOR IRANIAN RESPONSE

SWISS INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES SAYS AIRSPACE OVER IRAN, IRAQ AND ISRAEL WILL BEAVOIDED AS WELL UNTIL 13 AUGUST

IRAN'S ACTING FOREIGN MINISTER BAGHERI KANI STRESSES TEHRAN'S RIGHT TO AN 'APPROPRIATE AND DETERRENT RESPONSE' AGAINST ISRAEL TO 'ENSURE REGIONAL STABILITY' - IRNA

ISRAELI ARMY RADIO: IRAN IS CLOSE TO MAKING A DECISION TO LAUNCH A DIRECT ATTACK FROM ITS TERRITORY TOWARDS ISRAEL

There are reports that Durov has been arrested in Paris.

Pavel Durov will be held in custody until his trial, which is expected to take place today or tomorrow.

Huawei announced that they will be unveiling their new lineup of phones on the same day as the iPhone 16 launch. Just two hours after Apple’s presentation, they’ll start their own event. Talk about throwing some serious shade 😅🍿

Yesterday, the market dropped on poor ADP data. Since ADP often correlates with today's NFP, the negative outlook started to get priced in a bit early. Nevertheless, everything depends on today's NFP numbers today. Given the strong correlation with ADP, we'll likely see similar results. But if there's a surprise, the recovery above yesterday's levels could happen quickly. Otherwise, the path will lead toward 54600. NFP in 25 minutes

NFP slightly bearish but unemployment as expected. Since the market was expecting worse, we might see a bit of a recovery

U.S NONFARM PAYROLLS (AUG) ACTUAL: 142K VS 114K PREVIOUS; EST 165K

U.S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (AUG) ACTUAL: 4.2% VS 4.3% PREVIOUS; EST 4.2%

FED CUTS BY 50

A quick comment on this. The 50-point cut was already priced in, so we might see some positive movement for a while, but I’m leaning more towards a correction. The situation in the Middle East is escalating again, and that will hold back growth. We could go up a bit, but I’m skeptical about any significant growth for now...

Looks like correction is coming before uptober…

FED'S POWELL: FED IS NOT IN A HURRY TO CUT RATES QUICKLY, WILL BE GUIDED BY DATA

THE RATE CUT PROCESS WILL PLAY OUT "OVER SOME TIME" WITH NO NEED TO GO FAST

Hey, Uptober

AXIOS POLITICAL REPORTER TWEETS: SENIOR WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL TELLS ME:

“THE UNITED STATES HAS INDICATIONS THAT IRAN IS PREPARING TO IMMINENTLY LAUNCH A BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK AGAINST ISRAEL"

IRANIAN ATTACK EXPECTED IN 'NEXT FEW HOURS': AXIOS' BARAK RAVID

Now it depends on how events develop…

IRAN BEGINS MISSLE LAUNCHES AGAINST ISRAEL: IDF

IRAN IS EXPECTED TO LAUNCH 240 TO 250 MISSILES IN TWO WAVES AT FOUR TARGETS IN ISRAEL, INCLUDING MOSSAD HEADQUARTERS AND THREE AIR BASES, ACCORDING TO AN ISRAELI SOURCE AND A SENIOR U.S. ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL - ABC NEWS

There's no recovery yet as the escalation continues to gain momentum. The market is in limbo for the next few days...

ISRAEL IS PLANNING A "SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE" TO THE IRANIAN ATTACK. THE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ACCORDING TO AXIOS