Our swings are going down!

Looks like there's no point in dragging this out—since Saturday, I've racked up a solid amount of commissions. Thinking of doing like last time—pull out the USDC (got over two hundred of those now) and pay down some of the debt. The halving's almost here! Tough to predict the market's reaction; it's unlikely everything will start climbing by magic. More likely, we'll see an even steeper drop. So, I'm opting to gradually reduce the debt.

Yeah, AVAX's price has dropped. Yeah, there's panic in the air. But you know what? I'm still making commission. Seems like all's good for now.

I get that trying to piece together a full picture from scattered notes later on might be tough, so I'll lay it all out here.

So, on April 5th, I took out a $20,000 USDC loan on Aave, backed by some Bitcoins. Plus, I had a few thousand dollars' worth of AVAX left from a previous pair. At that time, one AVAX was going for about $45.

By buying more AVAX with the borrowed dollars, I managed to balance my AVAX/USDC ratio to 50/50 and set up a pair on Uniswap. I put down a wide range: from $29 to $71 per AVAX.

The plan was and still is simple: earn from commissions and gradually pay off the debt. The first week was all smooth sailing...

And then, exactly a week later, tensions flared up in the Middle East. Political conflicts often hit financial markets hard. AVAX prices started to tumble.

But that's exactly why I set such a broad range. The price momentarily dipped to $30 per AVAX, yet my trade pair never stopped operating.

And there was plenty of work for it! Even though the price dropped, trading volumes surged. So, I began raking in commissions in huge amounts!

The conflict quickly died down, and the Bitcoin halving passed smoothly too. AVAX has been gradually climbing back up. Right now, the price per unit is at $38. Commissions aren't rolling in as fast as before, but the key is they're still coming in steadily. The journey continues.

The current trend is looking pretty bullish. It seems like a mistake to focus too much on paying off my debt when I could be boosting profits by adding liquidity.

If I was 100% certain of growth, I'd always be buying more Bitcoin and even increasing my debt. Of course, I'm not one to take excessive risks.

However, I've already managed to reduce my debt a bit, just through commissions, and it's now confidently below the original $20,000. It's time to start seizing other opportunities! With the next cash-out, I'll be increasing liquidity—and that's happening very soon!

It's true that commissions aren't super high, but they're still well above the rate at which debt is accumulating. Given the current imbalance in my pool—31% USDC to 69% AVAX—I'll need to replenish liquidity in the same ratio. This means I'll put in the 85 USDC I currently have from commissions, and I'll need to match it with twice as much in AVAX value.

Luckily, I have some extra AVAX on hand! Last time I cashed out commissions, I used the USDC to pay down the debt and just held onto the AVAX, waiting for the right moment. Well, that moment has arrived!

So, the debt is decreasing, the currency pair is getting a boost, and all this isn't coming out of my own pocket but rather from borrowed funds secured by Bitcoin. It's too early to talk about any significant growth, but I'm really liking this trend.

Bitcoin took a 10% hit today, and naturally, the rest of the crypto market followed suit. But AVAX just refuses to drop below $30! It's like it knows I set my lower boundary at $29 and doesn't want to let me down. 😉

The market vibes are pretty bearish right now. I'm still keeping my spirits up, but I've got to align with the overall mood. I didn't snap a screenshot, but here's the update: the last commission I pulled, I used part of it to pay down the debt and the rest to scoop up some more BTC.

Here's my prediction, if you're curious: this current drop is meant to liquidate the long positions of traders. The market thrives on liquidations. Unfortunately, not everyone can win at once—there's not enough money to go around. Right now, traders in panic are opening short positions on Bitcoin. They will get liquidated too. I'm betting on a bounce back soon.

Everything that fell has grown back, honestly, a bit too quickly for my taste. It's like the market didn't get enough time to feast on short liquidations.

I'm not claiming to have a sixth sense for the market, but it feels like there might be one more dip before a true rally. New long liquidations followed by strong short liquidations, then a rocket to the moon!

Of course, these are just predictions. The key thing is that my strategy is built to handle any short-term outcomes. And for the long haul, the future is definitely crypto.

Commissions are trickling in slowly—I suspect that the Total Value Locked (TVL) in the USDC/AVAX pool has spiked. In other words, I've got a lot more competition, which is why profits are down. Still, I'm making more than enough to outpace the debt accumulation, so there's no real reason to complain. For now, I'm sticking to the original plan and waiting it out.

Yesterday, I pulled out commissions again and added them to the liquidity pool. Since the balance in the trading pair is off relative to the AVAX price at the time the pair was created, I need to add much more AVAX than USDC. So, I pretty much put in the last of my AVAX into the pair yesterday.

This means if the price doesn't rise, next time I'll have to send USDC to pay down the debt and just hold onto the AVAX at my address. Actually, that's totally fine; I've done it before. This approach keeps the liquidity balanced and allows me to manage my resources effectively under the current market conditions.

I don't often write about news, but truth be told, there's nothing much exciting happening. AVAX keeps swinging within the same old ranges we've seen a hundred times. It hasn't broken out of its range, and the commissions aren't rolling in heavily. Maybe it's just my mood right now—I don't feel driven to write with much enthusiasm about the routine.

I still believe I made the right move by opening my trading pair with borrowed funds against Bitcoin. My position is currently down due to the AVAX price, but I anticipate a rebound, and I'm already earning regular commissions.

Here's to hoping for more thrilling updates!

It's been about 12 or 13 days since I last pulled out commissions. Alright, during that time, I managed to earn another $228. On one hand, it's not a lot, but I'm not too bummed out. I'm hopeful things will pick up soon!

AVAX has climbed from $30 to $41, which is definitely great. But since I bought in at $45, this kind of growth still isn't quite exciting for me. Here's to hoping for better days ahead!

You know what's happened over the past half month? Absolutely nothing. The same price fluctuations within the same range. Well, at least nothing terrible happened, and that's something to be glad about. So, we keep waiting—mass adoption, a miracle, alt season, or maybe even a crash.

Finally, some news! The price of AVAX broke the lower boundary of the range and keeps falling. On the one hand, this might seem bad for me. Firstly, the value of my assets in dollars has decreased. Secondly, the position is no longer generating commissions.

However, I managed to pull out a whopping 620 AVAX. That's a lot in terms of the amount of AVAX. Sure, right now it's worth less than twenty thousand dollars. But if the coin hits $100, that would be $62,000. So, it's all relative.

What to do with such a large number of coins? The obvious answer is to stake them. What about my debt on Aave? There's no immediate need to do anything drastic. The loan is taken at such a proportion of the collateral that I don't have to worry about liquidation for a long time. Nevertheless, I'll try to pay down the loan bit by bit using any spare funds.

Alright, keeping you updated. The first staking period is over, and in two weeks, I earned one and a half AVAX. I checked the market situation, and nothing has changed. So, I staked it again for another two weeks. The clock is ticking!

There is no second best.

FLASHBACK: 🟠 Andreas Antonopoulos at the 2013 Bitcoin Conference in San Jose, CA, talking in front of a nearly empty room, when it was worth $100 👀