Myth-Busting Backtest #4: EMA 9 crossing above EMA 21 is the easiest buy signal in trading
A viral post claims the 9/21 EMA cross is the easiest buy signal in trading. We tested it exactly: buy Bitcoin at the close when the 9-day EMA crosses above the 21-day, sell at the close when it crosses back below, cash in between. Yahoo Finance daily data, 2019-01-01 to 2026-10-30, no transaction costs charged.
Verdict: CONFIRMED.
Strategy +3,548.9% vs the benchmark's +1,908.5% over the identical period. Final equity from a ten-thousand-dollar start: the strategy ended at $364,886; the benchmark ended at $200,853. 53 trades, only 21 winners — a 39.6% win rate — and a worst peak-to-trough fall of -60.0% vs -76.6%.
Full trade-by-trade log, free: https://stratiqai.substack.com/p/confirmed-ema-9-crossing-above-ema?src=telegram
Not financial advice.
A viral post claims the 9/21 EMA cross is the easiest buy signal in trading. We tested it exactly: buy Bitcoin at the close when the 9-day EMA crosses above the 21-day, sell at the close when it crosses back below, cash in between. Yahoo Finance daily data, 2019-01-01 to 2026-10-30, no transaction costs charged.
Verdict: CONFIRMED.
Strategy +3,548.9% vs the benchmark's +1,908.5% over the identical period. Final equity from a ten-thousand-dollar start: the strategy ended at $364,886; the benchmark ended at $200,853. 53 trades, only 21 winners — a 39.6% win rate — and a worst peak-to-trough fall of -60.0% vs -76.6%.
Full trade-by-trade log, free: https://stratiqai.substack.com/p/confirmed-ema-9-crossing-above-ema?src=telegram
Not financial advice.
Substack
CONFIRMED: 'EMA 9 crossing above EMA 21 is the easiest buy signal in trading' — it beat holding Bitcoin, on a 39.6% win rate
Myth-Busting Backtest #4 tests a viral claim: “EMA 9 crossing above EMA 21 is the easiest buy signal in trading.”
🏈 Football picks, graded in public: last week's paper bets went 2-3, -$4,239.02. Running scoreboard: 9-10-0, -$4,183.35 on a $5,816.65 paper bankroll — sports betting with fake money, simulated, nothing can be won. Which paper pick surprised you most?
Every paper result since the last edition, win or lose:
L Vikings +3.5 (-110), $2,682 paper → -$2,681.52
L Browns/Steelers Over 39.5 (-108), $2,346 paper → -$2,346.32
L Ravens +3.5 (-110), $2,011 paper → -$2,011.13
W Washington +7.5 (-106), $1,676 paper → +$1,581.08
W Bears +3.5 (-110), $1,341 paper → +$1,218.87
Paper bankroll: $10,055.67 → $5,816.65
Running scoreboard, exact from the ledger: 9-10-0, -$4,183.35, ROI -14.56%, avg CLV +0.08 pts. Paper bankroll $5,816.65 — every dollar of it fake, every result published.
🏈 This week's paper football picks (placed this morning at placement prices):
Vikings +3.5 (-110), $1,508 paper — Bills QB questionable, price through key 3; proven backup, top scoring D
Buccaneers +6.5 (-110), $1,293 paper — Bears on short rest, DL thinning, vs the No. 1 rushing offense
Colts +6 (-110), $1,077 paper — biggest model gap; line ran -1.5 to -6 on a fire sale
Miami +7 (-108), $1,077 paper — fading a 1.5-pt over-move on a WR absence priced at 0.5-1 pt
Ravens +10 (-110), $862 paper — 13-pt move overshoots a QB drop; below-bar fill
Full $5,816.65 paper bankroll split across the five, sized by conviction. Every pick graded in public — receipts Thu Nov 12.
Receipts post next Thursday Nov 12 — every result, win or lose. The paper bankroll after this week becomes next week's stake, sized by conviction. — Paper Ledger #4
Simulated betting experiment — paper money only. No real money is wagered, and nothing can be won or cashed out. 18+. Not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Every paper result since the last edition, win or lose:
L Vikings +3.5 (-110), $2,682 paper → -$2,681.52
L Browns/Steelers Over 39.5 (-108), $2,346 paper → -$2,346.32
L Ravens +3.5 (-110), $2,011 paper → -$2,011.13
W Washington +7.5 (-106), $1,676 paper → +$1,581.08
W Bears +3.5 (-110), $1,341 paper → +$1,218.87
Paper bankroll: $10,055.67 → $5,816.65
Running scoreboard, exact from the ledger: 9-10-0, -$4,183.35, ROI -14.56%, avg CLV +0.08 pts. Paper bankroll $5,816.65 — every dollar of it fake, every result published.
🏈 This week's paper football picks (placed this morning at placement prices):
Vikings +3.5 (-110), $1,508 paper — Bills QB questionable, price through key 3; proven backup, top scoring D
Buccaneers +6.5 (-110), $1,293 paper — Bears on short rest, DL thinning, vs the No. 1 rushing offense
Colts +6 (-110), $1,077 paper — biggest model gap; line ran -1.5 to -6 on a fire sale
Miami +7 (-108), $1,077 paper — fading a 1.5-pt over-move on a WR absence priced at 0.5-1 pt
Ravens +10 (-110), $862 paper — 13-pt move overshoots a QB drop; below-bar fill
Full $5,816.65 paper bankroll split across the five, sized by conviction. Every pick graded in public — receipts Thu Nov 12.
Receipts post next Thursday Nov 12 — every result, win or lose. The paper bankroll after this week becomes next week's stake, sized by conviction. — Paper Ledger #4
Simulated betting experiment — paper money only. No real money is wagered, and nothing can be won or cashed out. 18+. Not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Closing bell — Thu Nov 5
SPY closed at $733.00, down 4.41% on the day.
QQQ closed at $647.05, down 6.49% on the day.
A steep, broad decline — a risk-off session, with tech leading the way down.
Morning picks into the close:
NVDA: $181.60, down 9.26% from the reference price.
Its morning thesis was a bounce candidate.
CRM: $222.41, down 2.07% from the reference price.
Its morning thesis was a software bounce.
Neither bounce materialized today.
Tomorrow: October payrolls land Friday morning.
The morning brief flagged a hot report as a pressure point for multiples after today's decline.
SPY closed at $733.00, down 4.41% on the day.
QQQ closed at $647.05, down 6.49% on the day.
A steep, broad decline — a risk-off session, with tech leading the way down.
Morning picks into the close:
NVDA: $181.60, down 9.26% from the reference price.
Its morning thesis was a bounce candidate.
CRM: $222.41, down 2.07% from the reference price.
Its morning thesis was a software bounce.
Neither bounce materialized today.
Tomorrow: October payrolls land Friday morning.
The morning brief flagged a hot report as a pressure point for multiples after today's decline.
New video: Is the AI bubble popping?
We ran 40 years of data on days like today's Nasdaq −5.5% close. The era split is stark: inside the 2000–2002 unwind, −5% Nasdaq days were followed by another year of losses every time (−34% average). In every other era, they were positive a year later eleven times out of eleven (+36% average).
Verdict, and the two tells that would flip it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22ebhniSyR0
We ran 40 years of data on days like today's Nasdaq −5.5% close. The era split is stark: inside the 2000–2002 unwind, −5% Nasdaq days were followed by another year of losses every time (−34% average). In every other era, they were positive a year later eleven times out of eleven (+36% average).
Verdict, and the two tells that would flip it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22ebhniSyR0
YouTube
Is the AI Bubble Popping? We Ran the Numbers on the Nasdaq's Worst Day Since April
The Nasdaq fell 5.5% today — its worst day since April 2025 — and the chip index fell 12.3%, something it has done exactly once before since 1994. Is this the AI bubble popping, the start of a bear market, or a panic flush that gets bought?
We computed it…
We computed it…
StratIQ morning brief — Nov 6 🌅
COST
Defensive standout: rose Thursday to 1065.59 while the S&P 500 fell -4.36% — money hid in the name that kept working; own earnings (December) still ahead.
Risk: extended and premium-priced if a hot payrolls print lifts yields.
Zone $900-$1,200.
MU
Extreme bounce setup: hit hardest in Thursday's chip rout (795.23 Wed close to 656.39), steadied after hours (+~5.5% AH); forward catalyst is today's payrolls — a soft print eases December hike fear; own earnings still ahead.
Risk: falling knife if the chip unwind resumes.
Zone $375-$935.
Track record, wins and losses: stratiqai.app/track-record
Free-sample week: Sunday’s brief unlocked the exact levels for everyone. Join the free beta to keep them — founding members lock $5/mo for life when billing starts Dec 1. stratiqai.app/beta?src=telegram
From Mon Nov 9: pick #1 stays free; pick #2 (exact levels) becomes premium-only — founding $5/mo for life at stratiqai.app, billing Dec 1. One sub covers site + Substack.
Not financial advice.
COST
Defensive standout: rose Thursday to 1065.59 while the S&P 500 fell -4.36% — money hid in the name that kept working; own earnings (December) still ahead.
Risk: extended and premium-priced if a hot payrolls print lifts yields.
Zone $900-$1,200.
MU
Extreme bounce setup: hit hardest in Thursday's chip rout (795.23 Wed close to 656.39), steadied after hours (+~5.5% AH); forward catalyst is today's payrolls — a soft print eases December hike fear; own earnings still ahead.
Risk: falling knife if the chip unwind resumes.
Zone $375-$935.
Track record, wins and losses: stratiqai.app/track-record
Free-sample week: Sunday’s brief unlocked the exact levels for everyone. Join the free beta to keep them — founding members lock $5/mo for life when billing starts Dec 1. stratiqai.app/beta?src=telegram
From Mon Nov 9: pick #1 stays free; pick #2 (exact levels) becomes premium-only — founding $5/mo for life at stratiqai.app, billing Dec 1. One sub covers site + Substack.
Not financial advice.
$AMD surged 10.39% today — what happened next? After 10%+ surges (47 days, 35 episodes since 2010), the next 20 days averaged +6.59% (59.6% win rate) vs any day +3.32% (53.1%) — higher on both. History, not a prediction — the average hides a wide spread (worst 20 days: -28.1%, best: 41.6%).
Seven weeks in, our daily stock picks are beating $VTI buy and hold. 82 picks, each published before the open and graded at Friday's close: 46-36. We’re up +1.72% vs $VTI buy and hold −3.60% over the same stretch. Every pick, every grade: https://stratiqai.app/track-record?src=telegram — Not financial advice.
StratIQ AI
Track Record — Every Pick, Wins and Losses | StratIQ AI
StratIQ's public track record: 2 picks every weekday, scored open to close and net of fees — wins and losses published. No cherry-picking, ever.
Closing bell — Fri Nov 6: SPY closed at $735.29 (+0.31%) and QQQ at $656.10 (+1.40%). After Thursday's rout, tech steadied and led, while the broad market only edged green. Our rule after a rout: one green session is stabilization, not a trend change — Thursday's damage is not undone by a +0.31% day.
Today's morning picks at the close: COST, the defensive standout, finished at $1,053.56, down 1.13% from its $1,065.59 morning reference. MU finished at $690.00, up 5.12% from its $656.39 morning reference — the extreme bounce setup from the morning thesis played out. Split day: one up, one down.
Ahead: Monday's brief changes — pick #1 stays free for everyone, and pick #2 becomes premium-only until Friday's scoring. The full week scorecard publishes tomorrow.
Today's morning picks at the close: COST, the defensive standout, finished at $1,053.56, down 1.13% from its $1,065.59 morning reference. MU finished at $690.00, up 5.12% from its $656.39 morning reference — the extreme bounce setup from the morning thesis played out. Split day: one up, one down.
Ahead: Monday's brief changes — pick #1 stays free for everyone, and pick #2 becomes premium-only until Friday's scoring. The full week scorecard publishes tomorrow.
Weekly Review: 7-5 on this week's brief picks, +0.03% equal-weight — equity $10,118.62.
Best call: Delta Air Lines +8.80% — the cheaper-fuel bounce setup climbed all week.
Worst call: Nvidia -8.80% (Sunday pick) — the bounce never came in the chip unwind; Nvidia picked twice this week cost 15.5 points combined.
The Call went 3-2 this week (cumulative 10-5) — every win was a decisive move; both misses were small drifts.
Backtest lesson: buying AMD after a 10% drop returned +1,369.5% vs +2,186.2% buy-and-hold — a 60.9% win rate that still lost by 817 points.
Honest takeaway: a flat week built from violent offsetting moves in the market's worst week since June.
🎧 Listen: https://stratiqai.app/podcast?src=telegram
📊 Full track record: https://stratiqai.app/track-record?src=telegram
Follow for Friday's grade: we score every call, wins and losses.
Not financial advice — ideas for your own research.
Best call: Delta Air Lines +8.80% — the cheaper-fuel bounce setup climbed all week.
Worst call: Nvidia -8.80% (Sunday pick) — the bounce never came in the chip unwind; Nvidia picked twice this week cost 15.5 points combined.
The Call went 3-2 this week (cumulative 10-5) — every win was a decisive move; both misses were small drifts.
Backtest lesson: buying AMD after a 10% drop returned +1,369.5% vs +2,186.2% buy-and-hold — a 60.9% win rate that still lost by 817 points.
Honest takeaway: a flat week built from violent offsetting moves in the market's worst week since June.
🎧 Listen: https://stratiqai.app/podcast?src=telegram
📊 Full track record: https://stratiqai.app/track-record?src=telegram
Follow for Friday's grade: we score every call, wins and losses.
Not financial advice — ideas for your own research.
StratIQ AI
StratIQ Audio Brief — Daily Market Podcast | StratIQ AI
The StratIQ Audio Brief: a 2-minute daily podcast on today's market mood, the stocks on watch, and an honest scorecard grading yesterday's calls. New episodes every weekday morning.
The Call, week 3: 3-2 — net +2.17%
Which call surprised you most?
Week 3 scoreboard — graded at Friday's close, November 6, against the references recorded at publication on October 30. Every grade published, always:
QQQ down — reference $690.49 — Friday close $656.10 — WIN
GOOGL down — reference $279.84 — Friday close $284.78 — MISS
JPM up — reference $337.04 — Friday close $334.49 — MISS
COST up — reference $1,012.28 — Friday close $1,053.56 — WIN
HD up — reference $329.20 — Friday close $343.47 — WIN
Season record: 10-5.
The rule: in a selloff, follow the money that is already working — strength and safety paid this week, and the falling index call paid with them.
Five new calls for next week, November 9-13 — references recorded at publication (Friday, November 6 close):
SPY down — watch zone $680–$790 — reference $735.29
NVDA up — watch zone $150–$245 — reference $186.64
AMZN up — watch zone $225–$300 — reference $259.30
TSLA down — watch zone $300–$430 — reference $358.22
GLD up — watch zone $340–$420 — reference $372.52
How grading works: every call is graded at Friday's close, November 13, against its reference. Right direction and inside the zone = WIN; right direction outside the zone = PARTIAL; wrong side = MISS.
SPY: up or down next week? Replies get graded Friday.
Your turn: post your own card — ticker + direction. The best listener card gets tracked next to ours next week, graded on the same Friday close.
Not financial advice — research and education only.
Which call surprised you most?
Week 3 scoreboard — graded at Friday's close, November 6, against the references recorded at publication on October 30. Every grade published, always:
QQQ down — reference $690.49 — Friday close $656.10 — WIN
GOOGL down — reference $279.84 — Friday close $284.78 — MISS
JPM up — reference $337.04 — Friday close $334.49 — MISS
COST up — reference $1,012.28 — Friday close $1,053.56 — WIN
HD up — reference $329.20 — Friday close $343.47 — WIN
Season record: 10-5.
The rule: in a selloff, follow the money that is already working — strength and safety paid this week, and the falling index call paid with them.
Five new calls for next week, November 9-13 — references recorded at publication (Friday, November 6 close):
SPY down — watch zone $680–$790 — reference $735.29
NVDA up — watch zone $150–$245 — reference $186.64
AMZN up — watch zone $225–$300 — reference $259.30
TSLA down — watch zone $300–$430 — reference $358.22
GLD up — watch zone $340–$420 — reference $372.52
How grading works: every call is graded at Friday's close, November 13, against its reference. Right direction and inside the zone = WIN; right direction outside the zone = PARTIAL; wrong side = MISS.
SPY: up or down next week? Replies get graded Friday.
Your turn: post your own card — ticker + direction. The best listener card gets tracked next to ours next week, graded on the same Friday close.
Not financial advice — research and education only.
Week: 7-5 (+0.03%) — tracker 46-36 overall.
StratIQ week in review — Nov 7 📊
COST: +4.08%
NVDA: -8.80%
HD: +4.33%
DAL: +8.80%
MSFT: +4.63%
XOM: -7.68%
AAPL: +3.15%
WMT: +0.53%
NVDA: -6.74%
CRM: -5.93%
COST: -1.13%
MU: +5.12%
Track record, wins and losses: stratiqai.app/track-record
Free-sample week: Sunday’s brief unlocked the exact levels for everyone. Join the free beta to keep them — founding members lock $5/mo for life when billing starts Dec 1. stratiqai.app/beta?src=telegram
From Mon Nov 9: pick #1 stays free; pick #2 (exact levels) becomes premium-only — founding $5/mo for life at stratiqai.app, billing Dec 1. One sub covers site + Substack.
Not financial advice.
StratIQ week in review — Nov 7 📊
COST: +4.08%
NVDA: -8.80%
HD: +4.33%
DAL: +8.80%
MSFT: +4.63%
XOM: -7.68%
AAPL: +3.15%
WMT: +0.53%
NVDA: -6.74%
CRM: -5.93%
COST: -1.13%
MU: +5.12%
Track record, wins and losses: stratiqai.app/track-record
Free-sample week: Sunday’s brief unlocked the exact levels for everyone. Join the free beta to keep them — founding members lock $5/mo for life when billing starts Dec 1. stratiqai.app/beta?src=telegram
From Mon Nov 9: pick #1 stays free; pick #2 (exact levels) becomes premium-only — founding $5/mo for life at stratiqai.app, billing Dec 1. One sub covers site + Substack.
Not financial advice.
Which of today's picks are you watching — $COST, $NVDA, $HD or $DAL?
Anonymous Poll
0%
COST
0%
NVDA
0%
HD
0%
DAL
📊 StratIQ brief-pick tracker — week of Nov 02: +0.03% across 12 picks (7-5). DAL +8.80% was the best; NVDA -8.80% was the worst. Cumulative since Sep 21: 46-36, tracker +1.24% vs VTI -3.60% (+4.84 pp). Every pick published, wins and losses. 📜 Full record: stratiqai.app/track-record?src=telegram
StratIQ AI
Track Record — Every Pick, Wins and Losses | StratIQ AI
StratIQ's public track record: 2 picks every weekday, scored open to close and net of fees — wins and losses published. No cherry-picking, ever.
Strategy Leaderboard — Week 4: the bar to beat is $QQQ buy-and-hold — +344.1% since 2019 (2019-01-02 → 2026-11-06), Calmar 0.60, max drawdown -35.1%.
Comment any mechanical rule — we'll backtest it on 2019+ data and post the result here next Friday with your name on it.
Full board free → https://stratiqai.app/tools/leaderboard
Not financial advice. #stocks #investing
Comment any mechanical rule — we'll backtest it on 2019+ data and post the result here next Friday with your name on it.
Full board free → https://stratiqai.app/tools/leaderboard
Not financial advice. #stocks #investing
StratIQ AI
Strategy Leaderboard — Weekly Community Backtest Board | StratIQ
The weekly StratIQ Strategy Leaderboard: reader-submitted mechanical strategies, backtested on 2019+ data and ranked by Calmar ratio against a QQQ buy-and-hold benchmark. Losers publish alongside winners.
$IWM three-down-days rule: +153.5%. Just holding: +96.8%. The rule won 57 points and cut max drawdown in half (-20.7% vs -41.1%).
Buy the third straight down close, hold 10 sessions, 2019-2026: 77 trades, 61.0% win rate. The honest detail: the edge per signal is only about 0.7 points over 10 sessions, and no costs are modeled.
We publish losers too.
Not financial advice.
Buy the third straight down close, hold 10 sessions, 2019-2026: 77 trades, 61.0% win rate. The honest detail: the edge per signal is only about 0.7 points over 10 sessions, and no costs are modeled.
We publish losers too.
Not financial advice.