Last week’s crypto sell off was indiscriminate and unsurprisingly stocks followed yesterday. The annual Jackson Hall meeting where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday is weighing on sentiment as his stance is expected to be hawkish. Personal view but markets can again revert to peak fear by Friday and that might present a good buying opportunity.

Powell delivered the shortest speech ever for a Fed Chair at Jackson Hall. He sounded pretty hawkish (bad for stocks, crypto, gold, oil, treasuries…good for the USD), made it clear that if growth and employment need to be sacrificed to fight inflation so be it! Let’s see if he now walks the walk or just talks the talk. The slowdown will be severe so let’s see for how long the Fed can keep aggressively tightening monetary policy.

A much overlooked forward looking indicator of economic growth / activity will be released today. The ISM will give a gauge of what are the real prospects for the economy. We believe the number will disappoint to the downside and it will be the first reading of many of a rapidly deteriorating economy. Let’s remember that bad news might be good news for tech & crypto…

Crypto has been rallying over the last 24 hours on no apparent news. Seems like it’s tracking overall equities and a weaker USD, that is helping risk-on assets.

Next couple of weeks are going to be massive for markets and in particular crypto. Next week the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index), the most popular inflation gauge, will be out and after years in the making the Ethereum merge will finally come to life. The week that follows will have the Fed meeting that will give a strong direction on the monetary front after Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hall speech and Cardano will complete its much anticipated Vasil hardfork. Fireworks 💥 ahead…

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the press conference that followed confirmed the hawkish stance of the FED. Crypto reacted really poorly and was very close to taking out this year’s low, that would have been dreadful from a technical perspective. Instead it barely held $18000 and rallied all the way up to the mid 19000s. Is it the case of too many bearish news being already priced in? We would not bet against a relief rally!

Fed’s Evan is the first Fed official in a while to hint that they might have overcooked things a tad. We have been saying for a long while now that there is a decent chance that markets will turn in October. We expect a Fed pivot by the end of the year/early 2023 and in anticipation of this markets might just surprise us. 🤞

Crypto is proving incredibly resilient despite the sell-off in equities. Perhaps it’s a sign of decoupling or rather it might be bulls not wanting to see a monthly candle below the 2017 high, hence it is crucial that we clear $19,722 by tonight.

Interesting stat, since the 1960’s EVERY single year after a mid-term election has been a green year, with mid-terms scheduled in November 8th we might be not that far from a market bottom…we remain constructive in crypto that is showing signs of decoupling from equities.

Today we have seen crypto ripping higher leaving equities in its wake. In after hours after Google’s and Microsoft’s poor Q3 results causing a 6% drop in both and the Nasdaq being well below -2% in pre-market, BTC has hardly moved. We have been saying this for weeks crypto seems to be finally decoupling from equities, and this is great news for the space!

The decoupling of crypto from legacy tech is continuing. There couldn’t be a more positive single piece of news than this one. FTX saw a record number of short positions being liquidated yesterday.

Meltdown in equities following a fairly disastrous FOMC meeting where Chair Powell sounded as hawkish as ever. The positive news that after all the dust has settled BTC is just a touch lower in the last 24 hours. Crypto is proving resilience against all odds.

First significant piece of the macro puzzle is out today, non farm payrolls, key in determining the December policy stance of the Fed. The labor market needs to cool down significantly for the Fed to even consider a pause in rate hikes.

Overall non farm payrolls disappointed, although it was a mixed bag payrolls were revised up by 60k jobs for last month and missed on the upside by about 60k for this reading. The only silver lining, in a bad news is good news environment, was that the unemployment ticked up from 3.5% to 3.7%. Anyhow one would have expected a market meltdown instead we rallied. Is this an early sign that much of the bad news has been baked in already and we have seen the bottom?

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OFFICIAL MONETARY POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT

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