Have markets started pricing in the end of the war?

BTC > 70k — we finally broke out of the range we had been stuck in for nearly five days, waiting for something to happen.

What exactly is driving the move is hard to say. It could be a similar situation where BTC was bought on fears of further escalation, a liquidity grab driven by manipulation, or an actual positive reaction to the possibility of the war ending.

Yes, there are some leaks emerging, though not the most reliable ones, suggesting that the US and Iran are working on a plan and negotiating around it. The reported framework includes a two stage deal: an immediate ceasefire, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a full agreement within 15 to 20 days.

At the same time, we can see the kind of statements Trump keeps throwing around. He is setting new deadlines, which could simply be extra time to prepare strikes or a ground operation. Iran is also publicly denying any “deal.”

So overall, we are heading into a “fun” but very important week that could define the next direction of the conflict: either escalation and deeper US involvement in the war with even more serious consequences, or de escalation. For now, unfortunately, the first scenario still looks more realistic.

Trump backs off - markets react instantly

Donald Trump announced a two-week halt to strikes on Iran.

According to him, the military objectives have been achieved, and the US is already reviewing Iran’s 10-point peace plan.

Asset reaction:
• BTC: broke above $72,000
• ETH: above $2,200
• Oil crashed

In response, Iran promised to open a safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the truce. Looks like the world may be one step away from a major deal.

Where is all the liquidity and profit?

For now, everything has cooled off. BTC has moved into a flat range around $71K, and the most likely next phase is local liquidity grabs on both sides - around $72-73K above and $69-70K below - while price stays trapped in that range during this quieter stretch.

On alts, there are definitely more setups now, but local moves have become harder to catch. The market has changed. A lot of the action now is in crimes, and to catch them you need to track on-chain much more closely and understand what actually matters.

That is why you have to adapt to the market. If your on-chain game is weak, you need to improve it - find tools that help you track transfers, TWAPs, open positions, and similar signals to sharpen your read on price action.

There are manipulation moves in different tokens almost every day. For chart experience alone, these are worth watching: SIREN, BULLA, PLAY, TNSR, AIRA, as well as BIFI, FIO, FUN, MDT, OXT, and WAN. Binance is delisting the latter group, and moves like that often create crimes.

Day X for the US-Iran talks?

Today is the day negotiations between the US and Iran begin, with talks set to continue in different formats over the next several days.

What we know so far: the US has reportedly agreed to unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian assets as part of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Beyond that, most of the other headlines still look like rumors and narrative warfare from both sides.

There is still a path to a positive outcome, but the risk of a breakdown remains high given the maximalist positions on both ends. That is also why the US is still expanding its military presence in the Middle East.

Another point worth watching - diesel prices are rising again, and quite noticeably. Fuel suppliers have also started lifting their premiums, which signals expectations of future supply disruptions. In other words, the market still does not believe the Middle East situation will calm down anytime soon.

As for the headline that got crypto traders excited - the one about Iran allegedly wanting to charge passage fees in Bitcoin - there are already reports saying payments would be demanded in yuan instead. But even that looks doubtful, since the US is very unlikely to accept such a framework.

For now, crypto is holding up relatively well, so we stay alert.

This week’s spot ETF flow totals:

BTC: +$816.4 million
ETH: +$187 million

At the same time, Strategy bought another $651 million worth of BTC this week through its STRC preferred stock offering - 9,173 BTC in total.

Trump’s project has removed all team information from its website.

Earlier, the Trump family was listed in the WLFI project as co-founders. Now, their role appears to have been reduced to Web3 ambassadors. Reuters also reported last month that a section referencing Trump’s sons on the site had been removed.

That shift is only adding to the concerns around the project. The red flags being discussed are familiar - opaque liquidity moves, the use of in-house tokens as collateral, and the removal of public-facing information.

At the same time, investor funds remain locked, which keeps the pressure on the project even as its public positioning changes.

Scanning the market for an arbitrage opportunity.

Right now I’m checking how deposits and withdrawals work. Once everything is confirmed, I’ll share the full details in the channel.

Grayscale says crypto ownership is already heavily concentrated in younger generations.

Around 45% of millennials and Gen Z reportedly own crypto, compared with just 18% among Gen X and baby boomers.

That gap matters even more in the context of the next major wealth transfer. Roughly $110 trillion in capital is expected to move from older generations to millennials and Gen Z over the coming decades.

Grayscale sees that as a structural tailwind for the crypto market - and the logic is hard to ignore.

🐻 It is obvious that $60K is not the bottom of this bear market. $BTC is going much lower this year.

Another on-chain indicator I am watching closely is NUPL.

This short-term bounce - which is barely even visible on this chart - changes absolutely nothing. The medium-term picture still looks very weak.

A whale locked in $60 million in profit on this move.

A wallet linked to Matrixport closed its full BTC long worth $112 million and its ETH long worth $286 million, securing $60 million in net profit.

At the same time, another group of whales is still accumulating BTC on spot. For example, today 1,600 BTC worth $120 million was withdrawn from Binance and BitGo to three fresh whale wallets.

✅ Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels for the duration of the Lebanon truce, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

The move keeps one of the world’s most critical shipping routes open, at least for the remaining ceasefire period.

Local altseason?

If you look back at the market from the February lows, when we were calling for BTC buys at $60K and saying it was already time to start looking at alts - while many thought that view was crazy - the market did end up giving us a small altseason.

A large share of alts, roughly across the top 200, gained around 20-40% over that period, while BTC added 25%. Given the market backdrop, those were solid moves and more than enough to make good money. Yes, this is not the kind of altseason where everything does huge multiples, but let’s be honest - the market we had before is not coming back, and that simply has to be accepted.

At the same time, just look at the crimes - that is where the real multiples were. RAVE, for example, briefly pushed into the top 15 by market cap, moving ahead of names like ZEC, XMR, LTC, and others, while delivering massive upside.

And even on those crimes, it was still very possible to take your piece of the move, which is exactly what you saw in the Intraday cases.

So for everyone who built positions and is now sitting in profit, the key thing is simple - do not forget to realize it. The geopolitical backdrop is still fragile, and the market can turn very fast.

The market is giving a real window of opportunity right now.

You can see it clearly - random tokens have started firing again, and some are printing huge multiples in a single day. On top of that, the geopolitical backdrop has cooled off a bit, which is giving risk assets some room to breathe.

That said, this is exactly the kind of environment where it is easy to lose discipline. Chasing what has already flown on pure FOMO is usually the wrong trade. The focus should be on finding what still has room to move and positioning before the crowd gets there.

And for that, there is no shortcut - you need proper on-chain research, strong filtering, and a clear read on the right metrics.

A trader made about $33,000 by exploiting a weather market on Polymarket.

The market was using data from a sensor at Paris airport, and that sensor apparently had no protection. He bet on 22°C, then reportedly heated the air around the sensor with a hair dryer, pushed the reading higher, and won the market.

Genius.

Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are still going strong.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted nine straight trading sessions of inflows. Over the past week alone, total net inflows have exceeded $800 million.