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Taking on the status quo one fact at a time.
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Welcome to Dubai: Fewer Tourists, Oily Beaches, and Water by the Truckload https://sonar21.com/welcome-to-dubai-fewer-tourists-oily-beaches-and-water-by-the-truckload/
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Mecca Agreement: A defense pact with a fire escape?

The text of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement (MJDA), signed by Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, has been leaked to journalists. It was never officially published โ€” it surfaced only after being submitted to the Turkish parliament for ratification.

At first glance, the first two articles look like a binding mutual defense guarantee.

โžก๏ธ Article 1 obliges parties to "use all necessary means" against any threat to territorial integrity, sovereignty or recognized borders.

โžก๏ธ Article 2 declares an armed attack on one party to be an attack against all, requiring the parties to "immediately assist" the victim.

But read closely, the same articles that create the obligation also limit it.

Support is to be determined "following an objective assessment" and "within the limits of available resources" โ€” meaning no party has committed in advance to any specific level of military support. Each capital decides for itself what and how to contribute. The document's most concrete obligation is also its most conditional.

๐Ÿ‘‰ The real value of the agreement, experts argue, lies not in its headline security guarantees but in its practical provisions. Article 7 commits the parties to joint production, research and development, technology sharing and personnel exchanges.

Unlike the vague mutual defense language, these are concrete, measurable commitments. Over time, they can build genuine interoperability and trust โ€” the quiet infrastructure of the agreement, which may prove more durable than political moods.

๐Ÿ‘ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโšก- 12 hours until the polls open in Israel. The final pre-blackout average from six polling houses (Channel 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and Maโ€™ariv), with each partyโ€™s range across the polls in brackets:

- Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 22 seats (18-29)
- Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 22 seats (20-23)
- B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 13 seats (7-15)
- Democrats (Yair Golan) - 10 seats (9-10)
- Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 8 seats (8-9)
- Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 8 seats (7-9)
- Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 8 seats (7-10)
- Yahadut HaTorah (Ya'akov Asher) - 8 seats (7-8)
- Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 8 seats (5-8)
- Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 7 seats (6-8)
- Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 6 seats (5-6)

Under 3.25% threshold:
- Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) - 3.0%
- Reservists and Economic Party (Yoaz Hendel) - 2.7%

Likud-bloc: 53 seats (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Tkuma)
Yashar-bloc: 53 seats (Yashar, B'Yachad*, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu)
Arab-coalition: 14 seats (Joint List, Ra'am).

*Assuming Bennett joins an Eisenkot-led bloc.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก- The arrival of the Mecca Alliance in Tehran. The senior officials include:

- Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman,
- Turkish Intelligence, MiT, Chief Ibrahim Kalin,
- Pakistanโ€™s Army Chief Asim Munir.
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโšก๏ธ- BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has offered Ansarullah (the Houthis) $1 billion during mediation with Iran to halt attacks on the Kingdom, Gulf diplomatic sources tell Israel Hayom.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโšก๏ธ- Netanyahu plans to dismiss IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir if he wins re-election, according to i24NEWS.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Mister Iowan)
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถโšก๏ธ โ€” UKMTO announces receiving multiple third-party reports of a vessel on fire 63 nautical miles southeast of al-Faw, Iraq. UKMTO has no further information on the status of the vessel.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโšก- The growing rift between Israelโ€™s ruling political leadership and the security establishment is not limited to tensions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, but also extends into the Mossad.

Newly appointed Mossad Chief Roman Gofman supports Netanyahuโ€™s position on launching military action against Iran before the upcoming elections, however, several senior Mossad officials oppose such a move.
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Trump Talks Peace While the CIA Is Fueling the War in Ukraine. https://sonar21.com/trump-talks-peace-while-the-cia-is-fueling-the-war-in-ukraine/
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