Welcome to Dubai: Fewer Tourists, Oily Beaches, and Water by the Truckload https://sonar21.com/welcome-to-dubai-fewer-tourists-oily-beaches-and-water-by-the-truckload/
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
๐ธ๐ฆ๐น๐ท๐ต๐ฐ Mecca Agreement: A defense pact with a fire escape?
The text of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement (MJDA), signed by Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, has been leaked to journalists. It was never officially published โ it surfaced only after being submitted to the Turkish parliament for ratification.
At first glance, the first two articles look like a binding mutual defense guarantee.
โก๏ธ Article 1 obliges parties to "use all necessary means" against any threat to territorial integrity, sovereignty or recognized borders.
โก๏ธ Article 2 declares an armed attack on one party to be an attack against all, requiring the parties to "immediately assist" the victim.
But read closely, the same articles that create the obligation also limit it.
Support is to be determined "following an objective assessment" and "within the limits of available resources" โ meaning no party has committed in advance to any specific level of military support. Each capital decides for itself what and how to contribute. The document's most concrete obligation is also its most conditional.
๐ The real value of the agreement, experts argue, lies not in its headline security guarantees but in its practical provisions. Article 7 commits the parties to joint production, research and development, technology sharing and personnel exchanges.
Unlike the vague mutual defense language, these are concrete, measurable commitments. Over time, they can build genuine interoperability and trust โ the quiet infrastructure of the agreement, which may prove more durable than political moods.
๐ Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime
The text of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement (MJDA), signed by Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, has been leaked to journalists. It was never officially published โ it surfaced only after being submitted to the Turkish parliament for ratification.
At first glance, the first two articles look like a binding mutual defense guarantee.
But read closely, the same articles that create the obligation also limit it.
Support is to be determined "following an objective assessment" and "within the limits of available resources" โ meaning no party has committed in advance to any specific level of military support. Each capital decides for itself what and how to contribute. The document's most concrete obligation is also its most conditional.
Unlike the vague mutual defense language, these are concrete, measurable commitments. Over time, they can build genuine interoperability and trust โ the quiet infrastructure of the agreement, which may prove more durable than political moods.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฎ๐ฑโก- 12 hours until the polls open in Israel. The final pre-blackout average from six polling houses (Channel 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and Maโariv), with each partyโs range across the polls in brackets:
- Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 22 seats (18-29)
- Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 22 seats (20-23)
- B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 13 seats (7-15)
- Democrats (Yair Golan) - 10 seats (9-10)
- Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 8 seats (8-9)
- Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 8 seats (7-9)
- Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 8 seats (7-10)
- Yahadut HaTorah (Ya'akov Asher) - 8 seats (7-8)
- Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 8 seats (5-8)
- Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 7 seats (6-8)
- Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 6 seats (5-6)
Under 3.25% threshold:
- Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) - 3.0%
- Reservists and Economic Party (Yoaz Hendel) - 2.7%
Likud-bloc: 53 seats (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Tkuma)
Yashar-bloc: 53 seats (Yashar, B'Yachad*, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu)
Arab-coalition: 14 seats (Joint List, Ra'am).
*Assuming Bennett joins an Eisenkot-led bloc.
- Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 22 seats (18-29)
- Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 22 seats (20-23)
- B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 13 seats (7-15)
- Democrats (Yair Golan) - 10 seats (9-10)
- Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 8 seats (8-9)
- Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 8 seats (7-9)
- Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 8 seats (7-10)
- Yahadut HaTorah (Ya'akov Asher) - 8 seats (7-8)
- Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 8 seats (5-8)
- Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 7 seats (6-8)
- Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 6 seats (5-6)
Under 3.25% threshold:
- Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) - 3.0%
- Reservists and Economic Party (Yoaz Hendel) - 2.7%
Likud-bloc: 53 seats (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Tkuma)
Yashar-bloc: 53 seats (Yashar, B'Yachad*, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu)
Arab-coalition: 14 seats (Joint List, Ra'am).
*Assuming Bennett joins an Eisenkot-led bloc.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
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๐ฎ๐ทโก- The arrival of the Mecca Alliance in Tehran. The senior officials include:
- Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman,
- Turkish Intelligence, MiT, Chief Ibrahim Kalin,
- Pakistanโs Army Chief Asim Munir.
- Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman,
- Turkish Intelligence, MiT, Chief Ibrahim Kalin,
- Pakistanโs Army Chief Asim Munir.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐ธ๐ฆ๐พ๐ชโก๏ธ- BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has offered Ansarullah (the Houthis) $1 billion during mediation with Iran to halt attacks on the Kingdom, Gulf diplomatic sources tell Israel Hayom.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฎ๐ฑโก๏ธ- Netanyahu plans to dismiss IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir if he wins re-election, according to i24NEWS.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Mister Iowan)
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑโก- The growing rift between Israelโs ruling political leadership and the security establishment is not limited to tensions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, but also extends into the Mossad.
Newly appointed Mossad Chief Roman Gofman supports Netanyahuโs position on launching military action against Iran before the upcoming elections, however, several senior Mossad officials oppose such a move.
Newly appointed Mossad Chief Roman Gofman supports Netanyahuโs position on launching military action against Iran before the upcoming elections, however, several senior Mossad officials oppose such a move.
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Trump Talks Peace While the CIA Is Fueling the War in Ukraine. https://sonar21.com/trump-talks-peace-while-the-cia-is-fueling-the-war-in-ukraine/
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