Sonar21
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Taking on the status quo one fact at a time.
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❗️🇮🇷/☢️ NEW: Satellite imagery shows that Iran is rapidly expanding construction at the Taleqan-2 nuclear site in Tehran, northern Iran

Taleqan-2 is a high-explosive testing chamber that was used in the early 2000s for Iran’s nuclear weapons program ‘AMAD’.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Looks like US CENTCOM is gearing up to launch new attacks on the Houthis.
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Forwarded from Intel Slava
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️ — The Trump administration is considering the possibility of entering into business deals with Russia even before the end of the war in Ukraine, according to The New York Times, citing sources.

According to the newspaper, Washington wants to show Moscow the seriousness of its intentions to restart relations and create additional incentives for the Russian elite to end the war. The specific deals being considered are currently unknown.

This approach differs from Trump's previous position, who stated that deals with Russia were only possible after the end of the war, the NYT notes.

The newspaper claims that during a recent meeting in the Kremlin, Putin told Witcoff and Kushner that Russia would seize all of Donbas within a few months and would be able to inflict heavy blows on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Kushner responded by reminding Putin that he had said the same thing a year ago: "What are the chances that we'll come back here in a year and you'll say the same thing again? Maybe we shouldn't waste a year?"

The publication also reminds readers that Congress has passed a bill on "hellish" sanctions against Russia.

"But if the Trump administration is taking a carrot-and-stick approach to Putin, it appears that the emphasis is on the carrot," the article states.

@Intelslava
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
🇷🇺🔹 The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian Armed Forces struck a cargo ship that had delivered military supplies to the "Yuzhny" port.

Also targeted:

➡️ In the port of "Odessa" – a tanker that delivered fuel for the Ukrainian army;
➡️A cargo ship transporting goods intended to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the port of "Odessa."

🔴@DDGeopolitics
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Forwarded from The Cradle
Russia summons UK envoy over surging weapons shipments to Ukraine

Moscow warned that British military facilities used for strikes on Russian territory will be considered 'legitimate targets'
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The Squeeze Reaches the Runway: The Distillate War Is Now Cutting Flights https://sonar21.com/the-squeeze-reaches-the-runway-the-distillate-war-is-now-cutting-flights/
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
🚨🔍 Denmark concedes Greenland's security to US

The United States has secured permanent control over Greenland's security under an agreement with Denmark and Greenland — a deal Secretary of State Marco Rubio is calling a historic victory.

"This historic agreement permanently guarantees US security interests in the Arctic at zero cost to the US taxpayer," he declared.


What the US gets, per Trump's statement:

🔴 Control over Greenland's security "without any financial cost"

🔴 The Pentagon will immediately begin deploying a large military contingent to the island

🔴 No US adversary may ever open a base, maintain a military presence, or make sensitive investments in Greenland without express written US approval

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's office has confirmed the deal is expected to be signed next week during the UN General Assembly.

Greenland sits astride the Arctic routes between North America and Europe — the same Arctic that NATO is rapidly militarizing.

👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime
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🇷🇺 - Over the past week, Russia has increased the number of beds reserved for military casualties in hospitals in the northwest regions–including Leningrad–by 20,000.
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Moscow Notebook: A Dangerous Place to Lose Weight https://sonar21.com/moscow-notebook-a-dangerous-place-to-lose-weight/
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Forwarded from Military Summary
Ukrainian UAVs reached the Moscow Oil Refinery on the final day of the elections.

Between 3:00 and 5:00 a.m. alone, 249 UAVs were reportedly shot down across 17 districts. So far, two people are known to have been killed and five injured as a result of UAV strikes and falling debris hitting private and apartment buildings.

🔵Military Summary
📱Новости России | Военные Сводки
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🇮🇷⚡️- Iran's armed forces have been placed on the highest alert level, according to local Iranian reports.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Mister Iowan)
🇺🇸⚡️ — President Trump will now return to the White House tonight instead of tomorrow night.
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Forwarded from World Pravda
‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦"The unprecedented attack was evidently planned to disrupt the elections, but the adversary failed to achieve this" — Moscow mayor Sobyanin

Several drones reached the grounds of the Moscow Oil Refinery, while one struck a residential building

Unfortunately, two people were killed

Sobyanin assessed that the attack was clearly aimed at disrupting the elections, but emphasized: "The enemy did not succeed"
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
Trump’s gas-huffing CENTCOM commander says Hormuz oil shipping is doing just fine

“The volume of crude oil, cargo and liquid natural gas these past two weeks is higher than at any point in the past six months,” CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper boasted in a video address Saturday.

“We’re also working with every partner in the region, enhancing their air defense, forming a new coalition attack drone unit, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters open and clear,” Cooper said.

Claiming Gulf Arab exporters have shipped 1B+ barrels of crude through the strait “in the last couple months” while Iran’s exports hit “zero,” the commander assured that “clearly, momentum is building.”

CENTCOM and the Trump administration’s claims that oil is flooding through Hormuz has run up against the findings of independent maritime intelligence and tracking firms, which haven’t been able to find these magical ghost ships using commercial satellite data and radar tracking.

US claims also contradict one another, with CENTCOM’s 1B barrel figure averaging out to over 16.5M bpd, two-thirds more than the administration’s recent ~10M bpd estimate.

The administration itself has also been caught fiddling with its figures, with the DoE recently claiming regional exporters have squeezed out an additional 5-7M bpd in export capacity via pipelines (the IEA says available capacity is actually only 3.5-5.5M bpd).


And that was before the attack on Saudi Arabia’s massive East-West pipeline, which, together with Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and transit hubs, crippled virtually the entirety of the kingdom’s 7M bpd export capacity via the Red Sea.

Cooper’s “higher than at any point in the past six months” comment is also just dishonest. Six months ago, the US and Israel were a month into their war of aggression against Iran, with fighting at its zenith, and Hormuz almost totally shut to any traffic. In fact, an uptick in commercial shipping began in late March and early April, following initial conditional ceasefire agreements and permission-based transit for selected countries by Iran.

Leaving US attempts to massage the raw data aside, the proof that Iran’s Hormuz pressure campaign is working is reflected in prices – the prices Americans, their allies and people everywhere are paying at the pump, in the grocery store, for airline tickets, and virtually everything else in the economy that requires energy to create or operate, which is – well, pretty much everything. Want the pain to stop? Meet Iran’s peace terms.

👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime
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