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Taking on the status quo one fact at a time.
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ’ฌ 'Asia is the future, Europe is the past' โ€” Professor Zhang Weiwei, Dean of China Institute at Fudan University, speaks at the Eastern Economic Forum

'If you were here 100 years ago, in 1926, it was other way around'

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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ’ฌ Ukrainian media "Strana" on why Zelensky is threatening to strike Russian airports, and the possible consequences:

To understand what this step means, it is necessary to recall the reports that recently appeared in Western media about a certain operation codenamed "M&Ms," which Kiev was planning against Russian airports in order to disrupt air traffic through continuous drone attacks. It was noted, however, that Zelensky was skeptical of this idea, partly due to concerns about a negative international reaction if a civilian aircraft were to be shot down, which could be seen as air piracy.

It is also interesting that Ukrainian officials officially denied the existence of such a plan at the time. But now, as we can see, Zelensky has effectively stated it directly.

What has changed?

Apparently, several factors have influenced this.

First, there has been an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with virtually continuous attacks and numerous strikes. Zelensky has regularly promised to respond in some way, but so far he has not been able to provide a comparable response, nor has he been able to significantly reduce the number of strikes due to a lack of resources to counter the attacks. All of this may have created the impression among many Ukrainians that Kiev has lost the initiative in air strikes and that the authorities are feeling helpless, a feeling exacerbated by the constant corruption scandals surrounding the president's entourage. Therefore, it is possible that those at the Bankova remembered the operation against Russian airports in order to demonstrate a "decisive response." And it is not excluded that they were hoping to push Russia to agree to, at least, a "air truce," which has been discussed for some time, but Moscow has refused.

Second, and most importantly, today Germany officially accused Russia of organizing an attack on an aircraft at Leipzig airport. Other European countries supported Berlin in this. There are two possible scenarios here. The first is that Zelensky simply "aligned" himself with this line and, without consulting with Europeans, announced today the start of a campaign of attacks against Russian airports, making it look like a joint action with Europeans "in retaliation for hybrid attacks on Leipzig." Although it is not. The second is that Zelensky's statement about the operation against Russian airports was coordinated with Europeans as a "response to Leipzig."

But what is more important than Zelensky's motives is what will happen next.

First, there is the question of whether Kiev will be able to carry out its threat and launch continuous drone attacks on multiple Russian airports. This has never happened before. Ukrainian drones regularly attack Russian regions, which disrupts the operation of airports there. However, to implement Zelensky's idea, drones must constantly fly in a continuous stream to dozens of targets in different parts of Russia. It is unknown whether this is even possible. Moreover, such a "carousel" would cost a lot of money, and the military budget already has a huge deficit. However, Zelensky's statement itself may scare foreign airlines, and they may stop flying to Russia. It is not a certainty, but it is possible.

However, even in this case, air traffic will not completely stop, as Russian airlines will continue to fly. And, at least for domestic flights, there will be no collapse.

But if Ukrainian drones start actually shooting down civilian aircraft, and there are hundreds of victims, the situation will become much more serious in its consequences. It is extremely unlikely that Moscow will make any concessions after this and agree to an air truce or even a complete ceasefire. Most likely, it will retaliate.

And if the response to attacks on Russian ships was a complete blockade of shipping to Ukrainian Black Sea ports, if the response to attempts to attack Moscow was almost continuous attacks on Kiev, and if the response to attacks on Russian online marketplaces was the "destruction" of warehouses belonging to the largest Ukrainian retail chains, then one can only guess what scale the response will be to the downing of civilian aircraft.

Regardless of whether Zelensky coordinated his decision to attack Russian airports with Europeans or not, Moscow may perceive the attack on aircraft in Russian airspace as a joint Ukrainian-European action. And, accordingly, it may issue an ultimatum to Europe, stating that any continuation of such actions will be an act of declaring war.
Whether Europeans are willing to take such a risk (i.e., essentially risking entering a nuclear war) and whether Americans will be willing to back them up, given that Putin, not Zelensky, initially raised the bar for escalation in this particular case (with the threat to close the airspace over Russia) โ€“ the question is open.


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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ The second day of the Eastern Economic Forum in Russiaโ€™s Vladivostok.

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Just a reminder that there is no โ€˜freedom of speechโ€™ in Germany
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Forwarded from ResistanceTrench (Mehdi)
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก๏ธ U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: The goal here isn't necessarily to collapse the regime. It could happen; maybe the people will rise up.

๐Ÿšฉ ResistanceTrench | Boost
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Tabz)
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก๏ธ โ€” Iranโ€™s rial has fallen to a record low of more than 2.2 million rials per U.S. dollar, losing roughly 60% of its value since March.

Iranian Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said on Tuesday that Iran still has sufficient foreign currency reserves despite U.S. sanctions and is prepared to inject up to $2 billion into the foreign exchange market to stabilize recent volatility.
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The Bishkek Declaration: What the SCO Signed, and Why Indiaโ€™s Name on It Matters https://sonar21.com/the-bishkek-declaration-what-the-sco-signed-and-why-indias-name-on-it-matters/
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
๐ŸŒ™ Evening Briefing: Key Events of September ๐Ÿ”˜
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๐Ÿ”˜ The Russian Army liberated Svyatogorsk in the DNR and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkov Region, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
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๐Ÿ”˜ The AFU lost more than 1,330 servicemen over the past 24 hours.
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๐Ÿ”˜ Strike drones hit a logistics center in the Kiev Region, four energy infrastructure facilities in the Odessa Region and an unmanned boat production site at the port of Odessa.
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๐Ÿ”˜ Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev said radiation levels and the condition of the reactors at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant remain under control, but power supply to the facility must be restored in the coming days.
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๐Ÿ”˜ Dmitry Medvedev warned of possible retaliatory measures in response to Kievโ€™s threats against civilian aviation in Russian airspace.
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๐Ÿ”˜ Ukraine has sent the EU a new request for several billion euros to purchase air-defense systems, Ursula von der Leyen said.
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#Russia #Ukraine #SMO #AFU #EveningBriefing
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Jerusalem Post Now Openly Strategizing How to Recruit American Bodies for an Iran Ground War

An Israeli newspaper is now openly workshopping how the Pentagon should recruit Americans to fight and die in Israel's war. The Jerusalem Post ran an editorial laying out how the US could actually staff a ground invasion of Iran, because right now it can't. The math: an estimated 750,000 to 1.5 million troops needed against Iran's provincial defense structure, versus an active US Army of roughly 452,000.

The proposed fix isn't a draft, it's debt forgiveness. The average American aged 18-34 is sitting on $40,000+ in non-mortgage debt, and the paper proposes wiping that debt in exchange for 24-36 months of military service, modeled on the GI Bill and Vietnam-era college deferments, to get young Americans to enlist for a war Washington can't sell to the public.

Cut the "economic enlistment" branding and it's just this: use financial desperation to get indebted young Americans to go die for Israel in the Persian Gulf.

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Forwarded from Intel Slava (Hamilcar Barca)
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโšก๏ธ โ€” Iran has confirmed the deaths of three pilots in U.S. strikes two nights ago: Mojtaba Bagheri and Hamed Okati of the Naval Aviation Force, and Hossein Mahdavian of the Air Force.

@IntelSlava
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บDisagreements over Russia have heightened tensions in relations between the U.S. and Europe, Bloomberg reports citing sources

U.S. officials expressed dissatisfaction with Berlin for its hardline stance towards Russia at the G20 meeting. In particular, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was unhappy with the uncompromising position of the German Finance Minister towards his Russian counterpart Anton Siluanov.

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Forwarded from Military Summary
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A Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) attempted to attack a ship in the port of Sochi. Footage of its destruction is on your screens.

๐Ÿ”ต Military Summary
๐Ÿ“ฑะะพะฒะพัั‚ะธ ะ ะพััะธะธ | ะ’ะพะตะฝะฝั‹ะต ะกะฒะพะดะบะธ
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Current situation in 404.

t.me/RussianBaZa
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