Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
American officials are ‘trying to achieve a diplomatic settlement’ while simultaneously weighing the risks associated with dwindling stockpiles of air defense system missiles.
The Pentagon had already prepared to launch strikes over the next two weeks, but the start of the operation was postponed.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates
🇸🇦🛢 The Red Sea chokepoint: Saudi oil's last escape route narrows
Saudi Arabia's vast oil exports now increasingly depend on a single narrow escape route - the Suez Canal, as conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and now the Red Sea continues to redraw global energy flows, the WSJ reports.
Since the Iran war began, the kingdom has rerouted oil through its Red Sea terminals, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and sending shipments through Bab al-Mandeb to Asia.
♦️ Saudi Arabia has used its East-West pipeline to boost Red Sea shipments from roughly 700,000 barrels per day to 4.9 million—equivalent to about 5% of global supply
♦️ Of that, roughly 3.5 million barrels per day have been sailing through Bab al-Mandeb, mostly to Asia
But Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels in recent days are now threatening that workaround, forcing Saudi barrels onto a longer, costlier journey through Egypt's Suez Canal and around Africa.
🔴 In the first three weeks of July, oil transit via Suez hit its highest volume in 2.5 years, while imports to the Sumed pipeline were up 50% from the previous month
🔴 For Asia-bound cargoes, the detour adds 20-30 days, raising freight and insurance costs
The problem is that the Suez Canal is too shallow for fully laden oil tankers. To pass, a tanker must discharge roughly half its cargo, pump it through the Sumed pipeline across Egypt, and reload on the other side—or split the cargo between two smaller Suezmax tankers.
👉 Iran has previously warned it could shut down Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea if the US continues its escalation.
With Brent near $97 and having briefly topped $100, Goldman Sachs expects prices could climb to $120. The relief valve is closing—and with it, the world's ability to absorb another supply shock, analysts warn.
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Saudi Arabia's vast oil exports now increasingly depend on a single narrow escape route - the Suez Canal, as conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and now the Red Sea continues to redraw global energy flows, the WSJ reports.
Since the Iran war began, the kingdom has rerouted oil through its Red Sea terminals, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and sending shipments through Bab al-Mandeb to Asia.
But Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels in recent days are now threatening that workaround, forcing Saudi barrels onto a longer, costlier journey through Egypt's Suez Canal and around Africa.
The problem is that the Suez Canal is too shallow for fully laden oil tankers. To pass, a tanker must discharge roughly half its cargo, pump it through the Sumed pipeline across Egypt, and reload on the other side—or split the cargo between two smaller Suezmax tankers.
With Brent near $97 and having briefly topped $100, Goldman Sachs expects prices could climb to $120. The relief valve is closing—and with it, the world's ability to absorb another supply shock, analysts warn.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates
Demented Don is coping through AI-generated fever dreams: stealing Iranian oil tankers, bombing Kharg Island, and crowning himself "COSMIC COMMANDER."
When reality fails, post cartoons.
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Forwarded from TrackANaziMerc
Griselda Ines Ortiz (45), a former member of the Buenos Aires Provincial Police, was arrested in Tigre (Argentina) in connection with an alleged human trafficking case.
Authorities indicated that she recruited former police officers, and other weapon trained personnel, to send them to fight in the war between Russia and Ukraine. They were lured by the promise of monthly payments of USD 3,000.
We published about Griselda in September 2025, when she was part of the GUR’s “Advanced Unit,”. However, I believe she soon realized that the money was in recruiting her compatriots for the newly created units.
A handgun and several Ukrainian army insignias were found at her home in the tenement building, along with recruitment forms and Ortiz’s old police badges bearing his badge number. According to investigators, Griselda and her partner targeted former police officers like themselves — a common occurrence in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The price for risking their lives under drone fire: three thousand dollars.
The investigation began in March of this year, when the Airport Security Police detected four men at Ezeiza Airport who were preparing to travel to Ukraine on an itinerary that raised suspicions. The passengers claimed they would be carrying out infrastructure reconstruction work, but their statements contained contradictions, and none of them could explain who was financing the trip or provide details about their return to the country.
According to the Argentine police, they did not know who had paid for the tickets, who would be meeting them at their destination, what specific tasks they would be performing, or whether they had return tickets. Furthermore, they were traveling without money.
An analysis of their travel itineraries revealed that all of them would fly on Turkish Airlines to Istanbul, Turkey, with a layover in Chisinau, located in the Republic of Moldova. They would then enter Ukraine under the pretext of carrying out “infrastructure reconstruction” work as construction workers to repair the damage caused by the bombings.
Each one was interviewed separately. Their accounts did not match. The gaps in their testimonies were evident. They said they did not know their recruiter.
Finally, the four of them broke down. They admitted that their real goal was to reach the front lines in Ukraine. They also admitted that they had been told to lie about working in construction because they could be arrested if they told the truth.
As the investigation progressed, investigators determined that the four had been contacted through social media and that, in reality, they had agreed to travel to join the armed conflict as mercenaries in exchange for a payment of $3,000.
Authorities are also investigating the involvement of Griselda’s partner, a former Federal Police officer who later joined the City Police and is currently a fugitive. According to the investigation, he is believed to have fled to Brazil and was part of an organization dedicated to recruiting and transporting Argentines to the conflict zone under false promises of employment.
The Argentine media did not reveal the identity of Griselda's boyfriend, but we've identified him. He is Jorge Alberto Otero callsign Trembo, a former Argentine Federal Police officer who then became Citizen's Security in Tigre, his bodybuilder training may have attracted Griselda. He also is from Buenos Aires.
Both were recruiting Argentines for the “Lobo” unit of the International Legion, as shown on Jorge’s TikTok profile.
Jorge tried to cover his tracks deleting personal Facebook profile, but his TikTok account is still active (for now).
*Boost us to help us unlock emojis for our channel.
https://t.me/TrackAMerc?boost
Authorities indicated that she recruited former police officers, and other weapon trained personnel, to send them to fight in the war between Russia and Ukraine. They were lured by the promise of monthly payments of USD 3,000.
We published about Griselda in September 2025, when she was part of the GUR’s “Advanced Unit,”. However, I believe she soon realized that the money was in recruiting her compatriots for the newly created units.
A handgun and several Ukrainian army insignias were found at her home in the tenement building, along with recruitment forms and Ortiz’s old police badges bearing his badge number. According to investigators, Griselda and her partner targeted former police officers like themselves — a common occurrence in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The price for risking their lives under drone fire: three thousand dollars.
The investigation began in March of this year, when the Airport Security Police detected four men at Ezeiza Airport who were preparing to travel to Ukraine on an itinerary that raised suspicions. The passengers claimed they would be carrying out infrastructure reconstruction work, but their statements contained contradictions, and none of them could explain who was financing the trip or provide details about their return to the country.
According to the Argentine police, they did not know who had paid for the tickets, who would be meeting them at their destination, what specific tasks they would be performing, or whether they had return tickets. Furthermore, they were traveling without money.
An analysis of their travel itineraries revealed that all of them would fly on Turkish Airlines to Istanbul, Turkey, with a layover in Chisinau, located in the Republic of Moldova. They would then enter Ukraine under the pretext of carrying out “infrastructure reconstruction” work as construction workers to repair the damage caused by the bombings.
Each one was interviewed separately. Their accounts did not match. The gaps in their testimonies were evident. They said they did not know their recruiter.
Finally, the four of them broke down. They admitted that their real goal was to reach the front lines in Ukraine. They also admitted that they had been told to lie about working in construction because they could be arrested if they told the truth.
As the investigation progressed, investigators determined that the four had been contacted through social media and that, in reality, they had agreed to travel to join the armed conflict as mercenaries in exchange for a payment of $3,000.
Authorities are also investigating the involvement of Griselda’s partner, a former Federal Police officer who later joined the City Police and is currently a fugitive. According to the investigation, he is believed to have fled to Brazil and was part of an organization dedicated to recruiting and transporting Argentines to the conflict zone under false promises of employment.
The Argentine media did not reveal the identity of Griselda's boyfriend, but we've identified him. He is Jorge Alberto Otero callsign Trembo, a former Argentine Federal Police officer who then became Citizen's Security in Tigre, his bodybuilder training may have attracted Griselda. He also is from Buenos Aires.
Both were recruiting Argentines for the “Lobo” unit of the International Legion, as shown on Jorge’s TikTok profile.
Jorge tried to cover his tracks deleting personal Facebook profile, but his TikTok account is still active (for now).
*Boost us to help us unlock emojis for our channel.
https://t.me/TrackAMerc?boost
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Forwarded from SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence
Russian Forces Unleash Drone Hell Over Kupyansk While Advancing On Sumy And Slaviansk Axes
Russian forces have made tangible gains across multiple sectors of the frontline.
On the Kharkiv axis, assault groups of the 126th Motorized Rifle Regiment captured Zakharovka, expanding the security zone and closing in on Bely Kolodez.
Heavy urban fighting continues in Kupyansk, where Russian units are tightening their grip north of the city while beating back Ukrainian counterattacks
In the Sumy direction, Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters in 21 sectors, fighting in Ulanovo, Malaya Slobodka, Pisarevka, and Novaya Sech.
In the Slaviansk area, Russian forces continue fighting in Nikolaevka and Krasny Liman, gradually expanding their control zone.
Read more HERE
Russian forces have made tangible gains across multiple sectors of the frontline.
On the Kharkiv axis, assault groups of the 126th Motorized Rifle Regiment captured Zakharovka, expanding the security zone and closing in on Bely Kolodez.
Heavy urban fighting continues in Kupyansk, where Russian units are tightening their grip north of the city while beating back Ukrainian counterattacks
In the Sumy direction, Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters in 21 sectors, fighting in Ulanovo, Malaya Slobodka, Pisarevka, and Novaya Sech.
In the Slaviansk area, Russian forces continue fighting in Nikolaevka and Krasny Liman, gradually expanding their control zone.
Read more HERE
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