Sonar21
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Taking on the status quo one fact at a time.
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei today called out a Washington Post op-ed published days before the Islamabad talks that explicitly recommended assassinating Iranian negotiators if negotiations fail.

The piece, by Marc Thiessen, states: "carry out a final barrage of leadership strikes, eliminating the Iranian officials who had been spared for the purpose of negotiations... If they refuse to do so, they will be killed."

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Announces Own Blockade on Hormuz

As predicted a month ago, the US now announces its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to prevent any traffic at all from passing - especially ships allowed through by Iran to its allies and partners.

The entire purpose of this war was and is to destroy the multipolar world in a controlled economic demolition, targeting energy badly needed by the multipolar world from the Middle East and others (Russia/Venezuela).

This will hurt the US. It thinks it will hurt multipolarism more and the US will emerge stronger relative to the multipolar world on the other end of this policy.

I warned once the US Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) arrived (the USS Boxer is still en route) the most likely purpose was maritime interdiction - what the US Marines were reorganized to do under the previous Biden administration and specifically to impose a blockade on China.

Instead of doing it closer to China and its navy in Asia-Pacific, the US will do it at the Strait of Hormuz.
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
📝Black Sea Trap📝
about the elephant in the Black Sea china shop

The Black Sea Fleet's situation is nothing new for those who follow the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Recent events, including a strike on a frigate in Novorossiysk, have led to the West actively discussing the fleet's catastrophic state.

🔻What are they saying?

➡️An article describes the Black Sea Fleet's crisis. On paper, the fleet dominates in quantity and large ships, but Ukrainian drones have seized control over a significant portion of the waters.

➡️After evacuation from Sevastopol, Novorossiysk became the key base, allowing them to protect ships from USV attacks. But the fleet's combat ships rarely leave their base, which will eventually lead to intensified AFU strikes.

➡️The April 5, 2026 attack on a frigate, though not particularly successful, underscores the vulnerability of ships and submarines at the dock.


❗️Frigates can launch Kalibr missiles from the dock, but their functionality is limited. Continued drone strikes will leave them with no room to maneuver, as long-range drones and Starlink guidance will persist.

There is nowhere to go from Novorossiysk. The ports of Sochi and Ochamchira are small, and without adaptation, the fleet remains a tempting target. The key problem is that some high offices are not trying to understand the scale of possible consequences.
#Crimea #Novorossiysk #Russia #Ukraine
✈️ RU | ✈️ EN | ✉️ MAX

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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Andrei)
❗️ The French are working in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

While everyone was watching the Middle East, the French, under the pretext of protecting their bases, transferred the aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" to the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.

And instead of participating in repelling Iranian attacks, the deck-based aircraft were engaged in reconnaissance in the Black Sea area using the deck-based aviation from the aircraft carrier.

Recently, a deck-based AWACS E-2D and 4 "Rafale M" fighters from the "Charles de Gaulle" conducted a comprehensive reconnaissance operation in the Crimean direction. The E-2 operated in the area southwest of Sevastopol.

And the fighters accompanied another aircraft - an "Atlantic 2" from the Sigonella airbase, which operated in the central part of the Black Sea. This is a basic patrol aircraft designed for operations over the sea.

And immediately after this operation, the Ukrainian side carried out an attack on Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory. Therefore, the French flights, especially in such proximity, are another indication of what goal the French are pursuing against Russia, reports the channel "Archangel of Spetznaz".

@Slavyangrad
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I’m quite sure this will be treated as an act of war, if the U.S. is actually adamant on blocking Iranian ports.

Of course, it depends on whether it is implemented successfully or not.

We have to wait till tomorrow, but in response, Iran will likely target all remaining ports in the region for Arabs.

This probably includes Fujairah (UAE), Yanbu (Saudi Arabia), and Jeddah (Saudi Arabia).

There is also the possibility of something happening in Bab Al-Mandab.
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Iranian media are very silent on the news of the blockade, I haven’t even seen it be mentioned on IRIB.

This can have two reasons:

1. They want to wait for the official guidance / statement / instructions from SNSC on the matter.

2. They want to downplay it as to not necessitate a response (doubt that, but if true it’s worrisome)

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Andrei)
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US will not be able to pressure Iran with the threat of resuming war, — NYT

- Due to the unpopularity of war and the destabilization of the American economy caused by the surge in oil and gasoline prices, as well as the shortage of chemical fertilizers and helium, a return to hostilities would have very serious domestic political consequences for Trump, writes the New York Times.

- Moreover, the resumption of war could cause a collapse of global markets and an increase in inflation, which would hit Trump even harder.

@Slavyangrad
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Will Trump’s Order to Blockade Iranian Ports Actually Work? https://sonar21.com/will-trumps-order-to-blockade-iranian-ports-actually-work/
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Forwarded from Lord Bebo & Friends (Bebot)
🇺🇸🇻🇦 Trump in a lengthy attack targeting Pope Leo XIV.

Highlighted the most interesting parts.

Sections in red mark what I believe are the most critical passages in the "letter".

"I don't want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States."

🔗

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Trump has lost his fucking mind.
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Forwarded from Lord Bebo & Friends (Bebot)
🇺🇸 Return of the... Messiah?

Not sure what to make of this tbh.

🔗

Join us | @MyLordBebo
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🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺⚡️- The United Kingdom and Australia have both refused to join the U.S. blockade of Iran.
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Forwarded from Military Summary
🇺🇸 CENTCOM states that starting today at 17:00 Moscow time, the United States will begin a naval blockade of all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.

The blockade applies to ships of all nations, but will not affect vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian ports. Mariners are advised to follow official notices and maintain communication with U.S. naval forces in the region.

🔵 Military Summary
📱 Новости России | Военные сводка
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