Sonar21
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Taking on the status quo one fact at a time.
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
Hezbollah joining and Israel invading southern Lebanon has created another strain on resources and opens up the block to potential tactical defeats.

The IDF has long struggled with ground operations and has had a particularly difficult time in southern Lebanon. If history repeats we could be looking at high casualties for minimal gains. It wonโ€™t be a military defeat in the traditional sense but as weโ€™re seeing with Iran the name of the game is outlasting the time sensitive enemy.

Now the Houthis join and wipe oil infrastructure. That should be the check on U.S. support. After that the calculation for the U.S. will be ceasefire or full commitment to boots on the ground. I find the first option to be more likely.

But again remember the U.S. can just restart in 3-6 months.
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
The only real workable solution for the Iranians is attacking gas and oil infrastructure.

I predicted that this would be the weak link in the chain and that immense pressure on the gulf state monarchies was the most effective approach to U.S./Israeli strikes. Killing Americans and striking American bases is nice for publicity, but doesnโ€™t do much to aid Iranโ€™s war aims. The already precarious economies of the west, particularly Europe, canโ€™t handle the loss of their primary energy supplier. With the straits closed and oil/gas production halted itโ€™s now a waiting game.

If Iran is able to keep up minimum drone and missile strikes while the U.S. burns through munitions it canโ€™t replace we could be looking at a โ€œstalemateโ€ in which the regime is left intact and the U.S. is forced to temporarily suspend operations until it is once again ready to recommit. The expenditure of everything over the last five days is many times greater than during the 12 day war and has regional implications, not just implications for the Israeli state.
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Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท| The roar of Iranians in Qom tonight:

โ€œWe fight, we die, we do not compromise.โ€

@FotrosResistancee
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Andimeshk:

'Our word is just one:
Revenge! Revenge!'


@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Qazvin:

'No submission, no surrender;
WAR WITH AMERICA!'


@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Yasuj:

'Never will we surrender!'

@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Ardebil:

'Pahlavi is without honor;
Iran is for the honorable'


@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€” ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท/๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ NEW: A Russian prankster, wearing a Hitler mustache and calling himself 'Adolf', approached Iran's exiled Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi for an interview, stating he was a representative of German chancellor Friedrich Merz

Reza Pahlavi obliged, and despite obvious red flags he continued the entire interview having no clue he was being mocked throughout.

This is the person the Iranian diaspora wants as leader.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ/๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท BREAKING: Fire has been detected on the deck of a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the Arabian Sea, possibly due to an impact by an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Thousands of Iranians come out every night, play patriotic songs (in this case the national anthem), express support for the military and the Islamic Republic, and engage in communal prayers till 5 in the morning.

I've never seen anything like this before. During ONGOING bombardments of their cities. The atmosphere mirrors the 8-year Holy Defense against Iraq in the 1980s.
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Forwarded from ResistanceTrench (Dew)
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Israeli media: The Iranians managed to injure a number of American soldiers. Details will be provided later.
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โ˜ช๏ธ Husayn ibn Ali: Shia martyr whose story reveals why Islamic Iran will NEVER bow to US aggression

Husayn ibn Ali is a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad revered by Shia Muslims as their third Imam.

In 680 CE, he refused to pledge allegiance to Yazid, the second caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate, considering him an avaricious tyrant who neglected and exploited the poor, and lacked the moral and religious qualifications to lead Muslims.

Husayn set off for Kufa, a rebellious garrison city within the caliphate, to lead its residents in an uprising, taking his family and ~70 companions with him.

โš”๏ธ On the way, they were intercepted by a large Umayyad army of several thousand men in the arid plains of Karbala, and besieged for 3-10 days, denied access to water from the nearby Euphrates River. The armyโ€™s commander, Umar ibn Saโ€™ad, demanded Husaynโ€™s unconditional surrender, hinting he and his followers might be freed if they bowed to Yazid.

Husayn refused, declaring โ€œa man like me will never pay allegiance to a person like Yazid.โ€ This triggered the Battle of Karbala. Husayn, his family, and companions were massacred, their animals killed or taken as war booty, his body trampled by Umayyad soldiersโ€™ horses and his head sent to Yazid in Damascus.

๐Ÿ“Œ The battle became an eternal blueprint for Shia resistance, a symbol of struggle for justice even in the face of overwhelming odds.

After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the US and Israel became contemporary manifestations of the tyrannical Yazid, not just for Iran, but its regional allies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Husaynโ€™s story helps to explain why Iran has been so fearless in confronting the USโ€“ seizing its sailors (2016), destroying a US drone in its airspace (2019), targeting US forces in Iraq after Trump killed a top commander (2020) and striking Israel and US bases across the region after Khameneiโ€™s murder.

The battle between the Husayn and Yazid fronts is eternal, Khamenei said in a 2024 speech. "This war takes place in various shapes and forms, in one form in the era of swords and spheres, and in another in the age of atomic [technology] and artificial intelligence."


๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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๐Ÿ“น Iranians chant 'Death to Pahlavi' as airstrikes hit Khuzestan

"Marg bar Pahlavi" echoes through the region heavily targeted by US-Israeli strikes.

This is the Iranian people's response to their "representative" who mourns US soldiers instead of Iranian war victims.

๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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๐Ÿ”ฅ Massie: 'Iran is not Venezuela' โ€” and we're already losing

Rep. Thomas Massie dismantles the administration's war narrative on the House floor.

The Ayatollah was not a president. He was a religious leader โ€” which Israel and the US turned into a martyr, he said.

"For what? This administration can't even give us a straight answer as to why we launched this preemptive war."


๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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๐Ÿ—ฃ The diplomatic process was a sham โ€” Iran's Deputy FM

Esmail Baghaei responds to Netanyahu's admission that the decision to attack Iran was made before Trump's second term.

"All this negotiation, this diplomatic process has been a sham. It has been a sort of deception... They just wanted to find an excuse."


He says that Iran negotiated in good faith for 9 months, twice attempting dialogue.

"At the end of the day, they betrayed diplomacy."


๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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โ›ด Satellite imagery suggests US Navy destroyer hit near communications hub

Photos indicate a fire broke out near the communications headquarters of an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer following an Iranian attack.

๐Ÿ”ฅ If confirmed, this marks a direct blow to the ship's command and control capabilities.

๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A Boeing E-6 Mercury, a U.S. Navy airborne command-and-control and communications-relay aircraft, departed from Oklahoma and is currently flying east over the Atlantic.

The aircraft plays a key role in the U.S. nuclear command chain, ensuring that orders can reach nuclear forces even if ground systems are degraded.

The flight could be related to the test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile earlier today.

๐Ÿ”ด @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
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