Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
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#Iran #Hormuz
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (J Asbery)
Qatar will fully shut down gas liquefaction โon Wednesday and won't be โable to return to normal production and export levels of super-chilled gas for โat least a month, two โsources familiar with the matter said.
The sources said โthat once Qatar's main Ras โLaffan plant shuts on Wednesday, it won't be โable โ to restart turning gas into super-chilled fuel for at least two weeks, according to initial estimates. Once โrestarted, it โwill โ take at least another two weeks to reach full โcapacity, the sources said.
@Slavyangrad
The sources said โthat once Qatar's main Ras โLaffan plant shuts on Wednesday, it won't be โable โ to restart turning gas into super-chilled fuel for at least two weeks, according to initial estimates. Once โrestarted, it โwill โ take at least another two weeks to reach full โcapacity, the sources said.
@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Andrei)
๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ท The CIA is working on arming Kurdish forces for their invasion and rebellion in Iran, - Reuters.
- According to the agency, the Kurdish side has requested military support from the US; the involvement of the CIA in arms supplies is also being discussed.
- Leaders in Erbil and Baghdad have been in contact with the Trump administration in recent days. The stated goal is to create conditions for an internal rebellion against the current Iranian leadership.
- Reuters notes uncertainty about the combat capability of Iranian Kurdish groups: their experience and potential are assessed as heterogeneous.
- The reaction of other regional states to such a scenario also remains unclear.
- According to analysts, an escalation could strengthen separatist sentiments among the Baluchis in Iran, given their ties with groups in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. However, it is unlikely that Pakistan will support steps leading to the possible independence of the region.
@Slavyangrad
- According to the agency, the Kurdish side has requested military support from the US; the involvement of the CIA in arms supplies is also being discussed.
- Leaders in Erbil and Baghdad have been in contact with the Trump administration in recent days. The stated goal is to create conditions for an internal rebellion against the current Iranian leadership.
- Reuters notes uncertainty about the combat capability of Iranian Kurdish groups: their experience and potential are assessed as heterogeneous.
- The reaction of other regional states to such a scenario also remains unclear.
- According to analysts, an escalation could strengthen separatist sentiments among the Baluchis in Iran, given their ties with groups in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. However, it is unlikely that Pakistan will support steps leading to the possible independence of the region.
@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
Hezbollah joining and Israel invading southern Lebanon has created another strain on resources and opens up the block to potential tactical defeats.
The IDF has long struggled with ground operations and has had a particularly difficult time in southern Lebanon. If history repeats we could be looking at high casualties for minimal gains. It wonโt be a military defeat in the traditional sense but as weโre seeing with Iran the name of the game is outlasting the time sensitive enemy.
Now the Houthis join and wipe oil infrastructure. That should be the check on U.S. support. After that the calculation for the U.S. will be ceasefire or full commitment to boots on the ground. I find the first option to be more likely.
But again remember the U.S. can just restart in 3-6 months.
The IDF has long struggled with ground operations and has had a particularly difficult time in southern Lebanon. If history repeats we could be looking at high casualties for minimal gains. It wonโt be a military defeat in the traditional sense but as weโre seeing with Iran the name of the game is outlasting the time sensitive enemy.
Now the Houthis join and wipe oil infrastructure. That should be the check on U.S. support. After that the calculation for the U.S. will be ceasefire or full commitment to boots on the ground. I find the first option to be more likely.
But again remember the U.S. can just restart in 3-6 months.
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
The only real workable solution for the Iranians is attacking gas and oil infrastructure.
I predicted that this would be the weak link in the chain and that immense pressure on the gulf state monarchies was the most effective approach to U.S./Israeli strikes. Killing Americans and striking American bases is nice for publicity, but doesnโt do much to aid Iranโs war aims. The already precarious economies of the west, particularly Europe, canโt handle the loss of their primary energy supplier. With the straits closed and oil/gas production halted itโs now a waiting game.
If Iran is able to keep up minimum drone and missile strikes while the U.S. burns through munitions it canโt replace we could be looking at a โstalemateโ in which the regime is left intact and the U.S. is forced to temporarily suspend operations until it is once again ready to recommit. The expenditure of everything over the last five days is many times greater than during the 12 day war and has regional implications, not just implications for the Israeli state.
I predicted that this would be the weak link in the chain and that immense pressure on the gulf state monarchies was the most effective approach to U.S./Israeli strikes. Killing Americans and striking American bases is nice for publicity, but doesnโt do much to aid Iranโs war aims. The already precarious economies of the west, particularly Europe, canโt handle the loss of their primary energy supplier. With the straits closed and oil/gas production halted itโs now a waiting game.
If Iran is able to keep up minimum drone and missile strikes while the U.S. burns through munitions it canโt replace we could be looking at a โstalemateโ in which the regime is left intact and the U.S. is forced to temporarily suspend operations until it is once again ready to recommit. The expenditure of everything over the last five days is many times greater than during the 12 day war and has regional implications, not just implications for the Israeli state.
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Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
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๐ฎ๐ท| The roar of Iranians in Qom tonight:
โWe fight, we die, we do not compromise.โ
@FotrosResistancee
โWe fight, we die, we do not compromise.โ
@FotrosResistancee
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
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โโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท Chants in Andimeshk:
'Our word is just one:
Revenge! Revenge!'
@Middle_East_Spectator
'Our word is just one:
Revenge! Revenge!'
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
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โโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท Chants in Qazvin:
'No submission, no surrender;
WAR WITH AMERICA!'
@Middle_East_Spectator
'No submission, no surrender;
WAR WITH AMERICA!'
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
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โโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท Chants in Ardebil:
'Pahlavi is without honor;
Iran is for the honorable'
@Middle_East_Spectator
'Pahlavi is without honor;
Iran is for the honorable'
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
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โ ๐ฎ๐ท/๐ท๐บ NEW: A Russian prankster, wearing a Hitler mustache and calling himself 'Adolf', approached Iran's exiled Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi for an interview, stating he was a representative of German chancellor Friedrich Merz
Reza Pahlavi obliged, and despite obvious red flags he continued the entire interview having no clue he was being mocked throughout.
This is the person the Iranian diaspora wants as leader.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Reza Pahlavi obliged, and despite obvious red flags he continued the entire interview having no clue he was being mocked throughout.
This is the person the Iranian diaspora wants as leader.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
โโ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ/๐ฎ๐ท BREAKING: Fire has been detected on the deck of a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the Arabian Sea, possibly due to an impact by an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Middle East Spectator โ MES
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Thousands of Iranians come out every night, play patriotic songs (in this case the national anthem), express support for the military and the Islamic Republic, and engage in communal prayers till 5 in the morning.
I've never seen anything like this before. During ONGOING bombardments of their cities. The atmosphere mirrors the 8-year Holy Defense against Iraq in the 1980s.
I've never seen anything like this before. During ONGOING bombardments of their cities. The atmosphere mirrors the 8-year Holy Defense against Iraq in the 1980s.
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Forwarded from ResistanceTrench (Dew)
๐ฎ๐ทโก๏ธ๐บ๐ธ Israeli media: The Iranians managed to injure a number of American soldiers. Details will be provided later.
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Bitchute
Iranian Missiles Striking Tel Aviv
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime | Iran War Updates
Husayn ibn Ali is a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad revered by Shia Muslims as their third Imam.
In 680 CE, he refused to pledge allegiance to Yazid, the second caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate, considering him an avaricious tyrant who neglected and exploited the poor, and lacked the moral and religious qualifications to lead Muslims.
Husayn set off for Kufa, a rebellious garrison city within the caliphate, to lead its residents in an uprising, taking his family and ~70 companions with him.
Husayn refused, declaring โa man like me will never pay allegiance to a person like Yazid.โ This triggered the Battle of Karbala. Husayn, his family, and companions were massacred, their animals killed or taken as war booty, his body trampled by Umayyad soldiersโ horses and his head sent to Yazid in Damascus.
After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the US and Israel became contemporary manifestations of the tyrannical Yazid, not just for Iran, but its regional allies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Husaynโs story helps to explain why Iran has been so fearless in confronting the USโ seizing its sailors (2016), destroying a US drone in its airspace (2019), targeting US forces in Iraq after Trump killed a top commander (2020) and striking Israel and US bases across the region after Khameneiโs murder.
The battle between the Husayn and Yazid fronts is eternal, Khamenei said in a 2024 speech. "This war takes place in various shapes and forms, in one form in the era of swords and spheres, and in another in the age of atomic [technology] and artificial intelligence."
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime | Iran War Updates
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"Marg bar Pahlavi" echoes through the region heavily targeted by US-Israeli strikes.
This is the Iranian people's response to their "representative" who mourns US soldiers instead of Iranian war victims.
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