Sonar21
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Taking on the status quo one fact at a time.
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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
๐Ÿ”˜The assassination of Khamenei is a declaration of war against Shia Muslims worldwide, the president of Iran stated

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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
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โ•Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually come to a halt: traffic has plummeted by 92%

๐Ÿ”˜According to Bloomberg, this is evidenced by shipping monitoring data and vessel activity analysis. As noted by Matt Wright, the chief freight analyst at Kpler, the number of transit tanker voyages is currently about 92% lower than it was a week ago.

๐Ÿ”˜At the same time, some vessels are still passing through the strait; however, some voyages are being conducted with their AIS tracking systems turned off.

๐Ÿ”˜The Strait of Hormuz is a key energy artery of the worldโ€”about 20% of global oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas pass through it.

#Iran #Hormuz

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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
โšก๏ธโšก๏ธโšก๏ธIran has attacked the building of the Israeli Defense Forces General Staff three times and shelled Prime Minister Netanyahu's office, claims an advisor to the commander of the IRGC

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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑIran has threatened to strike a key nuclear facility in Israel located in Dimona

๐Ÿ”˜Iranian officials stated that Tehran could target the nuclear center in Dimona if the U.S. and Israel attempt to instigate a change of power in Iran. This was reported by Chinese media, citing statements from Iranian representatives.

๐Ÿ”˜According to sources, Iran also warned of potential strikes on energy infrastructure facilities in the region.

๐Ÿ”˜The nuclear center in Dimona is considered a key component of Israel's nuclear program and is located in the Negev Desert. This reactor has previously been mentioned in Iranian statements as a possible target amid escalating tensions between the countries.

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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (J Asbery)
Qatar will fully shut down gas liquefaction โ€‹on Wednesday and won't be โ€Œable to return to normal production and export levels of super-chilled gas for โ€‹at least a month, two โ€‹sources familiar with the matter said.

The sources said โ€‹that once Qatar's main Ras โ€‹Laffan plant shuts on Wednesday, it won't be โ€Œable โ to restart turning gas into super-chilled fuel for at least two weeks, according to initial estimates. Once โ€‹restarted, it โ€‹will โ take at least another two weeks to reach full โ€‹capacity, the sources said.

@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Andrei)
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The CIA is working on arming Kurdish forces for their invasion and rebellion in Iran, - Reuters.

- According to the agency, the Kurdish side has requested military support from the US; the involvement of the CIA in arms supplies is also being discussed.

- Leaders in Erbil and Baghdad have been in contact with the Trump administration in recent days. The stated goal is to create conditions for an internal rebellion against the current Iranian leadership.

- Reuters notes uncertainty about the combat capability of Iranian Kurdish groups: their experience and potential are assessed as heterogeneous.

- The reaction of other regional states to such a scenario also remains unclear.

- According to analysts, an escalation could strengthen separatist sentiments among the Baluchis in Iran, given their ties with groups in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. However, it is unlikely that Pakistan will support steps leading to the possible independence of the region.

@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
Hezbollah joining and Israel invading southern Lebanon has created another strain on resources and opens up the block to potential tactical defeats.

The IDF has long struggled with ground operations and has had a particularly difficult time in southern Lebanon. If history repeats we could be looking at high casualties for minimal gains. It wonโ€™t be a military defeat in the traditional sense but as weโ€™re seeing with Iran the name of the game is outlasting the time sensitive enemy.

Now the Houthis join and wipe oil infrastructure. That should be the check on U.S. support. After that the calculation for the U.S. will be ceasefire or full commitment to boots on the ground. I find the first option to be more likely.

But again remember the U.S. can just restart in 3-6 months.
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
The only real workable solution for the Iranians is attacking gas and oil infrastructure.

I predicted that this would be the weak link in the chain and that immense pressure on the gulf state monarchies was the most effective approach to U.S./Israeli strikes. Killing Americans and striking American bases is nice for publicity, but doesnโ€™t do much to aid Iranโ€™s war aims. The already precarious economies of the west, particularly Europe, canโ€™t handle the loss of their primary energy supplier. With the straits closed and oil/gas production halted itโ€™s now a waiting game.

If Iran is able to keep up minimum drone and missile strikes while the U.S. burns through munitions it canโ€™t replace we could be looking at a โ€œstalemateโ€ in which the regime is left intact and the U.S. is forced to temporarily suspend operations until it is once again ready to recommit. The expenditure of everything over the last five days is many times greater than during the 12 day war and has regional implications, not just implications for the Israeli state.
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Forwarded from Fotros Resistance
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท| The roar of Iranians in Qom tonight:

โ€œWe fight, we die, we do not compromise.โ€

@FotrosResistancee
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Andimeshk:

'Our word is just one:
Revenge! Revenge!'


@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Qazvin:

'No submission, no surrender;
WAR WITH AMERICA!'


@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Yasuj:

'Never will we surrender!'

@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Chants in Ardebil:

'Pahlavi is without honor;
Iran is for the honorable'


@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€” ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท/๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ NEW: A Russian prankster, wearing a Hitler mustache and calling himself 'Adolf', approached Iran's exiled Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi for an interview, stating he was a representative of German chancellor Friedrich Merz

Reza Pahlavi obliged, and despite obvious red flags he continued the entire interview having no clue he was being mocked throughout.

This is the person the Iranian diaspora wants as leader.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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โ€”โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ/๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท BREAKING: Fire has been detected on the deck of a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the Arabian Sea, possibly due to an impact by an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Thousands of Iranians come out every night, play patriotic songs (in this case the national anthem), express support for the military and the Islamic Republic, and engage in communal prayers till 5 in the morning.

I've never seen anything like this before. During ONGOING bombardments of their cities. The atmosphere mirrors the 8-year Holy Defense against Iraq in the 1980s.
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Forwarded from ResistanceTrench (Dew)
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Israeli media: The Iranians managed to injure a number of American soldiers. Details will be provided later.
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โ˜ช๏ธ Husayn ibn Ali: Shia martyr whose story reveals why Islamic Iran will NEVER bow to US aggression

Husayn ibn Ali is a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad revered by Shia Muslims as their third Imam.

In 680 CE, he refused to pledge allegiance to Yazid, the second caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate, considering him an avaricious tyrant who neglected and exploited the poor, and lacked the moral and religious qualifications to lead Muslims.

Husayn set off for Kufa, a rebellious garrison city within the caliphate, to lead its residents in an uprising, taking his family and ~70 companions with him.

โš”๏ธ On the way, they were intercepted by a large Umayyad army of several thousand men in the arid plains of Karbala, and besieged for 3-10 days, denied access to water from the nearby Euphrates River. The armyโ€™s commander, Umar ibn Saโ€™ad, demanded Husaynโ€™s unconditional surrender, hinting he and his followers might be freed if they bowed to Yazid.

Husayn refused, declaring โ€œa man like me will never pay allegiance to a person like Yazid.โ€ This triggered the Battle of Karbala. Husayn, his family, and companions were massacred, their animals killed or taken as war booty, his body trampled by Umayyad soldiersโ€™ horses and his head sent to Yazid in Damascus.

๐Ÿ“Œ The battle became an eternal blueprint for Shia resistance, a symbol of struggle for justice even in the face of overwhelming odds.

After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the US and Israel became contemporary manifestations of the tyrannical Yazid, not just for Iran, but its regional allies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Husaynโ€™s story helps to explain why Iran has been so fearless in confronting the USโ€“ seizing its sailors (2016), destroying a US drone in its airspace (2019), targeting US forces in Iraq after Trump killed a top commander (2020) and striking Israel and US bases across the region after Khameneiโ€™s murder.

The battle between the Husayn and Yazid fronts is eternal, Khamenei said in a 2024 speech. "This war takes place in various shapes and forms, in one form in the era of swords and spheres, and in another in the age of atomic [technology] and artificial intelligence."


๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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๐Ÿ“น Iranians chant 'Death to Pahlavi' as airstrikes hit Khuzestan

"Marg bar Pahlavi" echoes through the region heavily targeted by US-Israeli strikes.

This is the Iranian people's response to their "representative" who mourns US soldiers instead of Iranian war victims.

๐Ÿ‘ US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
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