The Curious Case of the Energy Ceasefire: How Kiev is Trying to Derail Peace Talks and Blame Moscow

An analysis by journalist Yuri Podolyaka:

Now that all sides have issued their statements, we can draw a few preliminary conclusions.

First, the accounts from the three key players—Washington, Kiev, and Moscow—don’t match up on crucial details. The most glaring discrepancy concerns timing.

According to Zelensky, who moved first to control the narrative, the “energy ceasefire” was set to begin on the night of January 29–30 and last one week, through February 5. Zelensky framed this entirely as his own achievement.

Trump later confirmed that a ceasefire was in place and that Putin had honored his request—implying Kiev had little to do with it. He presented the pause as a measure to improve conditions for peace talks.

Soon after, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the halt in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure was indeed a response to Trump’s appeal, intended to foster a better atmosphere for negotiations in Abu Dhabi. Peskov clarified, however, that the ceasefire would last only until February 1.

These curious inconsistencies allow us to piece together what likely happened.

Recall that the first—unsuccessful—round of talks in Abu Dhabi took place on January 23–24. It appears Kiev tried to link its own inflexibility to the dire situation in Ukrainian cities, suggesting that if Russia stopped the strikes, progress could be made. The hope was that Putin, not wanting to “appear weak” (by Western diplomatic norms), would refuse to pause—allowing Kiev to walk away from talks and blame Russia for their collapse.

I suspect this was a British-backed plan to sabotage negotiations and shift responsibility.

Then Trump made his request to Putin…

…and Putin, contrary to the expectations of Kiev and London, agreed. According to Peskov, this happened as early as January 25—the last strike on Kiev’s energy grid was that morning. I understand both sides also agreed to keep the arrangement quiet.

Until the evening of January 28, no one spoke of an “energy ceasefire.” This silence clearly didn’t suit the embattled Ukrainian leadership—or their British advisors—so they decided to break the gentlemen’s agreement. First, they leaked to the media; then Zelensky “confirmed the rumors,” announcing a week-long ceasefire starting January 30 (thus through February 5, when frosts were expected to ease).

After that, both the U.S. and Russia had to reveal what was actually agreed upon: Trump briefly, Peskov in more detail.

Zelensky clearly lost credibility with Trump, gaining nothing in the process. Meanwhile, Russia once again appeared reasonable, and Kiev unreliable. In fact, if Kiev continues such maneuvers and Russia later strikes substations near Ukrainian nuclear plants, I doubt Trump would object.

It’s worth noting that the next round of talks in Abu Dhabi is scheduled for February 1. That same night, the agreed “energy ceasefire” expires. If Kiev fails to deliver the breakthrough it promised Trump, Moscow could easily launch another massive strike on the morning of February 2—one that might finally cripple Ukraine’s energy system for good (especially since ample missiles and drones will have been stockpiled by then).

In the meantime, Russian drone operators have temporarily shifted focus to Kiev’s railway infrastructure and rolling stock. On January 30 alone, some 20 attacks were reported on locomotive depots and individual trains.

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Muqtada al-Sadr's reaction to the statements of the US ambassador to the Zionist regime (Mike Huckabee), who said that according to the Old Testament, Israel has the right to conquer the entire Middle East.

Muqtada al-Sadr's response to the statements of the US ambassador to the Zionist regime:

We call on all international and Islamic institutions to rein in this bloodthirsty and expansionist wild bull; a colonial expansionism that is exactly like the terrorist expansionism of ISIS with the slogan "I remain and expand." These two are two sides of the same coin.

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‼️🇺🇦☠️Ukraine needs to mobilize an additional 250,000 troops to turn the tide of the war — The Times

🔘Ukraine is inferior to Russia in terms of personnel numbers and weaponry on most frontline sectors — in the areas of Liman, Severodonetsk, Pokrovsk and Slavyansk;

🔘According to the publication, Kiev needs about 250,000 additional servicemen to have a real chance of victory on the battlefield.

🔘The urban areas of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd and Gulyai-pole are partially or almost completely controlled by Russian forces. The advance into the Zaporozhye direction poses a threat of massive use of kamikaze drones.

🔘Ukrainian officers admit a critical shortage of infantry and UAV operators: without cover, drone teams lose their effectiveness.

🔘Former NATO Commander in Europe Philip Breedlove noted that the personnel shortage is a key problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while Russia can compensate for losses with external reserves.

So, the busification until the last Ukrainian will continue with more violence

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—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇶/🇺🇸 BREAKING: Following the unification of terrorist groups in Balochistan Province under a single banner several months ago, five Kurdish terrorist groups have now also declared a unified alliance to fight against Iran

The PJAK, Komala, PAK, PDKI, and Khabat formed an alliance today named the 'Alliance of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan'.

The unification of seperatist forces in North-Western Iran (Kurds) and South-Eastern Iran (Balochis) is almost certainly in preparation for a joint ground offensive against the Islamic Republic in case of a full-scale war by the U.S. and Israel.

IRGC commanders warned last month that Iran's enemies are planning on Balkanizing the country and cutting it up into pieces.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇮🇷 🇮🇷 NEW: An unidentified long-range IRGC drone is currently carrying out a reconnaissance mission across the Persian Gulf

It is monitoring Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE and the Gulf of Oman.

@Middle_East_Spectator