— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇯🇴 A short note on Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan, and why Iran may not strike it (although I argue they should):

For striking Muwaffaq Salti airbase, which currently hosts the majority of U.S. aerial assets (F-35s, F-15s etc.), Iran would need to utilize its longer range ballistic missiles. The vast majority of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile are SRBMs that are capable of striking U.S. bases in countries like Qatar and the UAE, but that are incapable of reaching Jordan. Iran has spent significant resources to increase its stockpile of long-range missiles since the 12-Day War, but no stockpile is infinite.

Iran's long range missiles are more valuable, exist in more limited numbers, and they would likely be prioritized to target Israel. Using these missiles to strike U.S. forces in Jordan instead of Israel may be perceived as a waste by Iran, especially considering the large amount of air defenses that have been deployed near the airbase.

This is also the main reason America is using Jordan as its primary staging grounds. It's not because Saudi Arabia and Qatar refuse to let their airspace be used, that's just the spin. It's simply because the U.S. has decided that it prefers to be outside the range of the majority of Iran's missile arsenal.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🚨 OIL SPIKES 4%, WAR RISK RISING

WTI $65.19, +4.6%
Brent $70.35, +4.3%

VP JD Vance says Iran ignored U.S. red lines in nuclear talks.

President Trump says military force remains an option.

Iran running drills in the Strait of Hormuz, 1/3 of global oil flows through it.

Two U.S. carriers now in the region.

Markets hear one thing, escalation.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “The US military is prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, though President Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision on whether he’ll authorize such actions,” sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.

Tucker Carlson’s visit to ISRAEL part of TRUMP REQUEST TO ‘TURN DOWN THE TEMPERATURE’ — JPost

‘Everybody’s looking for a way to turn down the temperature, I promise you, and President Trump is telling everyone, including Tucker, that. Let’s take this down,’ Melissa Francis said

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- "Senior national security officials have told the president that any operation that aims to change the Iranian leadership is not guaranteed to be a success, the officials said." - NYT.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡- "Over the next three days, the Pentagon is moving some personnel temporarily out of the Middle East region — primarily to Europe or back to the United States — ahead of potential action or counterattacks by Iran if the U.S. were to move ahead with its operation," - CBS.

🇸🇾⚡- Syrian forces are preparing to enter As Suwaida, Druze-controlled southern Syria, according to al-Jazeera.

The Qatari outlet reports that the entry of Syrian forces is aimed at restoring order.

"The Syrian operation could target [Israeli mercenary led] Hikmat al-Hijri forces, which could lead to a deal in which the so-called 'Druze National Guard' dissolves.

Israel would not support the creation of an independent Druze state, and that the Druze destination will be with Damascus," - Druze sources tell al-Jazeera.

One Minute to Midnight https://sonar21.com/one-minute-to-midnight/

The US is withdrawing about a thousand military personnel from Syria as part of the completion of the military operation in the country, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing sources.

"A large-scale US presence in Syria is no longer necessary, given the readiness of the Syrian government to take on the main responsibility for combating the terrorist threat within its borders," a source in the US administration told the publication.

The US Central Command earlier confirmed the completion of the withdrawal of American troops from the Al-Tanf base in southern Syria.

According to WSJ, the withdrawal of troops from other American facilities will be carried out over the next two months.

@Slavyangrad

‼️🇷🇺 The Kiev regime is now the main obstacle to resolving the conflict. Russia is not seeking and does not want wars, - Lavrov

Other statements by the Foreign Minister in an interview with Al Arabiya:

▪️All the slogans of the Munich Conference boiled down to the fact that Russia is an enemy and it should be eliminated;

▪️Lavrov expressed hope that the current political class of Europe will "come to its senses" and sensible forces will prevail there;

▪️Those who are trying to label Hungary and Slovakia as "accomplices" of Russia are nostalgic for their Nazi past;

▪️The US is now trying to oust Russia from the global energy markets, despite statements about future cooperation;

▪️The Syrian authorities see the presence of Russia in Hmeimim and Tartus as a factor of stability that balances the influence of other players;

▪️The US is acting wisely by withdrawing forces from northeastern Syria, but it does so at the risk of creating new threats in the region;

▪️Lavrov warned of "unpleasant consequences" in the event of new strikes on Iran;

▪️Lavrov called attempts to demand from Iran in Geneva a complete renunciation of uranium enrichment rights as incorrect.

@Slavyangrad