🇷🇺🇺🇦 THOUGHTS: So, to come back to my statement:

“Ukraine's front in Donbass collapses and that Kursk situation will be pushed back in a week, two max.”

Yes, the Kursk situation was not pushed back in two weeks and likely will persist longer, but the Donbass is collapsing even faster now. Why did Ukraine choose this path?

🗯 Now it makes sense to me, so let’s say it bluntly:

I have not expected Ukraine to keep sending their best troops to Kursk, exposing Donbass, cause that makes no military sense. But once you change perspectives it does make sense!

1) It’s an attrition war and Ukraine knows that. Ukraine will lose if they keep fighting this war in a classic military sense. So Ukraine tries to change the type of conflict or enforce an end on their terms.

2) To get money and weapons Ukraine needs to entertain the west with big events, that raises morale and shows the world they’re winning.

Now, let’s go into Zelensky’s shoes and think. His conclusion is something like: “If we keep doing what we’re doing, our army and the Donbass collapses by February 2025.”

‼️ Ukraine’s choice is to either fight until attrition kills them next year, or to try something unexpected and beat the odds.

Once you understand that fighting in a logical way leads to a collapse anyway, all the “moves” Ukraine is doing now become logical.

Let’s keep Zelensky’s shoes on and think further:

1) “What if we surprise them and blitz to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, then we can use it as leverage for negotiations. They can’t strike it anyway, since it’s a NPP and we can dictate our terms.”

2) “What if we sent bunch of drones to hit Moscow’s residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, that would embarrass Putin. Russians could protest and demand an end to this war”

Or crazy thoughts to get NATO’s boots on the ground:
3) “What if we send drones to hit NATO and pretend it was Russia”

4) “What if we detonate a dirty bomb and blame Russia”

All these thoughts and other become logical, if you want to win by all means and classic military strategy is a losing bet.

➡️ Expect more radical surprise moves. It’s Ukraine’s only way to win.

As the commander in chief Syrsky said:

“We cannot fight in the same way as they do”

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