Globsec security forum insists Ukraine is still winning the war (BNE Intellinews)

Managing Editor, Robert Anderson, at BNE Intellinews remarks about the moronic groupthink he witnessed:

Central Europe’s foremost security shindig – now in its 19th year – has always drawn a smug, hawkish, Atlanticist crowd, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the forum has been even more convinced of its own importance and the rightness of its warnings about Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

But the forum's narrow range of views and growing self-satisfaction also makes it prey to groupthink and prone to tub thumping. This is a serious weakness when the Ukraine war is so finely balanced and sober analysis is more essential than ever.

No panel speaker dared contemplate the possibility of a Ukraine defeat – except as a dire warning to encourage the West to give more support – or even suggest that peace talks might be a good idea. The Globsec bubble insisted that Ukraine was winning the war, and final victory over Russia was achievable. Saying anything else was viewed as potentially giving succour to the enemy and encouraging cowards to withhold support.

On the panel “Lessons learned from Ukraine”, when Karel Rehka, chief of the Czech general staff, timidly concluded that “militarily, no-one is really winning right now”, he was immediately contradicted by retired US general Ben Hodges of Globsec. “Of course Ukraine is winning the war,” he insisted to applause. “Even without us being committed, the Ukrainians are winning this war and Russia is in big trouble.”

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive was applauded as a bold manoeuvre that had boosted Ukrainian domestic morale, turned the propaganda tide internationally, thrown the Russian attack off balance, created strategic uncertainty as well as domestic problems for Putin, and gained a bargaining chip for prisoner exchanges and potentially a more advantageous peace deal.

Kursk had also exposed Russian weakness and exploded the threat of Russian nuclear escalation.

“The bear has very weak legs and arms,” said Piotr Błazeusz, commanding general, Eurocorp. “Ukraine has shown that you can stand up against the bear and he is not as big as we all thought.”

In another panel entitled “Ukraine’s Nato membership: we’ve come to the bridge, let’s cross it”, former US ambassador to Nato Kurt Volker declared: “Kursk is a demonstration that Russia is at the limit of its capabilities. It can’t defend and attack at the same time. Russia does not have the ability to escalate.”

There was virtually no discussion of the potential strategic risks of the Kursk offensive or even the danger posed by the simultaneous Russian advance towards Pokrovsk. The herd instinct made an honest discussion of these tough topics impossible, with sceptical voices unwilling to raise their heads above the parapet.

As well as a shared wishful thinking about the current military position, the Globsec bubble was united over what the West should do to help: build up its own armed forces and defence industries to combat the Russian threat, step up military deliveries, and also extend Nato air defence cover into Ukraine and allow Kyiv to send Western missiles deeper into Russia, both of which might be regarded by Moscow as escalatory.

“If we want the Ukrainians to prevail, we have to let them bring the war to the Russians,” said Rehka.

The forum also voiced strong support for Ukraine to join Nato, while admitting that unfortunately this was not yet a position whose time had come, even in Washington DC.

Some panellists even turned the warning of the sceptics on its head by arguing that Ukraine joining Nato could end the war rather than provoke Russia.

“You can’t think about Ukraine joining Nato as something that happens after the war ends,” said Volker. "It must be seen as a way to end war.”

He went further: “If we don’t stop Putin we will have WWIII; If you bring Ukraine into Nato then you won’t have WWIII.”

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@Slavyangrad