Good afternoon all,

Hope you're all doing well and enjoyed the stat sheets! I'm having three bets across Europe today:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Sheffield United v Burnley

Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 8/11 - 1 Point

Crucial six-pointer at the bottom of the Premier League, so a massive to-play-for spot. The Blades have conceded two or more in six straight and have seen over 2.5 land in 82% of their home games. Burnley demolished them 5-0 at home and they've conceded two or more in six of their last eight away. Sheffield United have scored in six of their eight at home against bottom half opposition.

🇮🇹 Empoli v Napoli

Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 8/11 - 1 Point

Napoli are chasing European football and potentially Champions League if they can finish in fifth. They haven't kept a clean sheet under Francesco Calzona in eight matches and will face an Empoli side fighting for survival. Napoli have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 away from home. There are multiple ways to win this bet with Empoli contributing to the scoring and Napoli scoring three or more on their own. They put six past Sass and four past Monza in recent away games under Calzona.

🇪🇸 Girona v Cadiz

Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 8/11 - 1 Point

Girona have won all 11 home games against sides outside of the top six in La Liga. They've scored three in seven on their own and face a Cadiz side battling relegation that has conceded two or more in all six away against sides in the top eight. Cadiz have actually won two of their last four, so will be confident and highly motivated given their league position.

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✅️ 3-1 Burnley

Nice and easy winner to start the best bets.

Napoli kick off at 5 👍

✅️ Over 2.5 - Sheff Utd v Burnley
✅️ Over 2.5 - Girona v Cadiz
❌️ Over 2.5 - Empoli v Napoli

Nice bit of profit banked for the day.

Back in the morning with more 👍

Good morning all,

Getting the bets out early today!

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Blackburn vs Sheffield Wednesday

Sheff Weds +0.5 Asian Handicap
BetMGM - 4/5 - 0.5 Points

Blackburn are winless in five under new boss, John Eustace and created under 1.00 xG in three. They may have beaten Leeds last time out but the xG was 1.82-0.49, so as expected they were extremely fortunate and the win isn't an indicator of future success. If we take the last 12 games, which roughly matches Eustace's tenure, Blackburn have a net xG of -0.39 per 90 and Wednesday's is -0.09. A big game, so likely an increased home advantage but we're never getting to this kind of number on Rovers.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Crystal Palace vs West Ham

Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 10/11 - 1 Point

Palace have had Olise and Eze start together just five games so far this season. The scorelines read 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and 0-1. The 0-1 was last time out against Liverpool. I have no idea how that game ended 0-1 when there were 3.48 expected goals, I expect Darwin Nunez will have a better idea. West Ham have scored two or more away in six of nine against sides in the bottom half. They've also seen over 2.5 land in 64% of away games.

🇮🇹 Monza vs Atalanta

Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 1/1 - 1 Point

This game is very close to a 1.5 point bet for me but Atalanta coming off a midweek game slightly puts me off it. Monza at home against the top sides in Serie A have been goal fests - 1-5, 4-2, 1-2, 0-0 (but over 3 xG), and 1-4. Atalanta are chasing European football again and a win would put them one point behind fifth-place Roma. Monza's underlying numbers are good for goals, they allowed over 2.00 xG to Napoli and Bologna and over 1.80 to Roma and Torino.

Best of luck if you follow and comment any bets you're having today 👍

✅️ 1-3 Sheffield Wednesday
✅️ 3-0 Palace vs West Ham

A solid start to the day's best bets 👌

✅️ 1-2 Monza vs Atalanta

Great day. Hopefully you made a few quid today following.

Back in the morning 👍

Good morning all,

✅ 3/3 on best bets yesterday!

Today looks fairly quiet for us. We may have a bet at Roma but that won't come before team news, so keep notifications on if you want to follow.

Our numbers also make Boro a bet but with their season over it's difficult to feel confident about their motivation against a highly-motivated Leeds side.

Comment your favourite bet for today below 👍

Good afternoon all,

I didn't fancy anything yesterday, given the amount of Chelsea injuries and rotation, but I've had two bets for tonight in the same game.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line
bet365 - 10/11 - 1 Point

Palace +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 4/6 - 0.5 Points

We bet over 2.5 on Sunday, and we're going back in tonight. Palace have had Olise and Eze start together in just six games so far this season. The score lines read 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 0-1, and 5-2. The 0-1 was last away against Liverpool. I have no idea how that game ended 0-1 when there were 3.48 expected goals; I expect Darwin Nunez will have a better idea. Newcastle have seen three or more goals in six of their last eight and 11 of their 15 away games. The Toon Army have also won just four on their travels, two of which came at Sheffield United and Forest. 

Comment your favourite bet for today below 👍

Drop a reaction if you want an early bet for tomorrow's games 👍

An early bet for tomorrow I've made:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton vs Man City

Both Teams To Score
bet365 - 8/11 - 1 Point

Brighton are very well rested here, with their last match coming 12 days ago. Since the start of April, they've played three matches compared to Manchester City's six. Brighton were poor against Arsenal, but De Zerbi played a heavily-rotated side, and they still created 1.11 expected goals. This is a spot we've been backing for a while now. Man City don't keep clean sheets away from home against good sides. They've kept just one over the past two seasons away at sides in the top half of the Premier League in 16 matches.

Adding a bet in the Prem tonight:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Wolves vs Bournemouth
Over 2.75 Asian Goal Line

bet365 - 5/6 - 1 Point

Wolves team is good for goals with Ait-Nouri back, Hwang starting and Semedo at left back. Bournemouth have a good attacking side out with Kerkez playing again and a change at goalkeeper. Bournemouth seen over 2.5 in 82% of their away games and Wolves 62% at home.

Afternoon all,

Felt like we were pretty unlucky last night with Brighton not getting at least one penalty!? We move on anyway:

Two bets for me tonight:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 QPR vs Leeds

QPR +1 AH
bet365 - 10/11 - 1 Point

QPR have been a completely different side under Marti Cifuentes. In their last 12 home games, they are the eighth-best team in the Championship on net xG. If you look at their last 12 games overall, they are sixth. Leeds have beaten a top half side away from home by two goals just once in 11 games. They've allowed over 1.00 xG away from home in each of their last four away. We faded Leeds in this spot against Watford recently, and I like the Hoops to cover this handicap again.

🇪🇸 Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid

Real Madrid +0.5 AH
bet365 - 4/7 - 1 Point

Real Madrid will rotate with their Champions League semi-final on Tuesday night, and the league wrapped up, but they are too big here. Sociedad have won just one of eight games home and away against sides in the top seven. They've also only won two of six home games against sides in the top half of La Liga. Madrid have lost one game all season in La Liga and can avoid defeat even with a rotated eleven.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

✅️ QPR 4-0
✅️ Real Madrid 1-0

Both dogs win outright. A good day to start the weekend!

Back with more in the morning 👍

Good morning all,

A good start to the weekend with 2/2 last night! Today looks fairly tricky though and I'm only having a few small bets.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa v Chelsea
Over 3.5 Goals

bet365 - 11/10 - 0.5 Points

Chelsea have been in plenty of goal fests recently. They've seen over 3.5 land in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 in the Premier League. Villa have seen over 3.5 land in three of their last four and five of eight home games against sides in the top half. Chelsea have a fair number of defensive injuries with Gusto, Chilwell, James, Colwill and Fernandez missing.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Cardiff v Middlesbrough
Over 2.5 Goals

bet365 - 10/11 - 0.5 Points

A nothing to play for spot, which usually gives goals an upgrade anyway but Boro's away games have averaged 3.27 goals and they've seen over 2.5 land in 68%. Cardiff have been safe for a few games and have seen over 2.5 land in four of their last five.

🇪🇸 Atletico Madrid v Bilbao
Over 2.5 Goals

bet365 - 21/20 - 0.5 Points

A fairly important game for fourth spot in La Liga, which gives Champions League football next season. Atletico have seen over 2.5 land in seven of eight at home against sides in the top half of La Liga. Bilbao have only seen over 2.5 in one of four away at the top six but their underlying metrics are good with three of four seeing over 2.70 xG, so odds against for over 2.5 goals looks good here.

Best of luck if you follow 👍