Good morning all,
Thankfully, we got the goals we deserved last night and secured a profit, even if we did deserve to win the over 3.0 as well! As always, we move on to today's action!
I've had one bet on tonight's game:
🇪🇺 Atalanta v Marseille
Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 1.87 - 1 Point
◾️Marseille have conceded two or more in five away games on the bounce.
◾️They've seen over 2.5 land in 11 of 14 overall and five of six away under Jean-Louis Gassett.
◾️Atalanta are more aggressive at home. They've kept just one clean sheet in six against the top half in Serie A and seen over 2.5 land in five.
◾️They conceded in both European home games against Sporting and Liverpool.
◾️Atalanta created 1.05 xG away in the first leg.
I'll be back after team news for Bet Builder selections.
If you had bet Bet Builder selections to £20 a point this season, you'd have made +£256.80 in profit—and we only started in February!
Best of luck if you follow 👍
Thankfully, we got the goals we deserved last night and secured a profit, even if we did deserve to win the over 3.0 as well! As always, we move on to today's action!
I've had one bet on tonight's game:
🇪🇺 Atalanta v Marseille
Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 1.87 - 1 Point
◾️Marseille have conceded two or more in five away games on the bounce.
◾️They've seen over 2.5 land in 11 of 14 overall and five of six away under Jean-Louis Gassett.
◾️Atalanta are more aggressive at home. They've kept just one clean sheet in six against the top half in Serie A and seen over 2.5 land in five.
◾️They conceded in both European home games against Sporting and Liverpool.
◾️Atalanta created 1.05 xG away in the first leg.
I'll be back after team news for Bet Builder selections.
If you had bet Bet Builder selections to £20 a point this season, you'd have made +£256.80 in profit—and we only started in February!
Best of luck if you follow 👍
Evening all, I think I'm going to leave the Bet Builder tonight.
Villa's team is a bit weird and I've spent too much time trying to figure it out. I think Diaby will be in behind Watkins and Cash out on the right wing but I want to be fully sure before betting it.
Plenty of action to come this weekend, so I'll just stick with the overs at Atalanta.
Best of luck tonight with your bets 👍
Villa's team is a bit weird and I've spent too much time trying to figure it out. I think Diaby will be in behind Watkins and Cash out on the right wing but I want to be fully sure before betting it.
Plenty of action to come this weekend, so I'll just stick with the overs at Atalanta.
Best of luck tonight with your bets 👍
Get in there!
✅️ 95th minute winner!
Back tomorrow morning with Friday's bets!
✅️ 95th minute winner!
Back tomorrow morning with Friday's bets!
Good morning all,
Our data scientists have been busy! We now have xG data for a few more leagues, including Australia and Dutch Eerste!
I've had two bets today:
🇦🇺 Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Sydney FC Win
bet365 - 2.05 - 0.5 Points
Although Central Coast finished top of the regular season, our xG model has Sydney FC as the best team in the league. They comfortably beat Central Coast 2-0 back in March and destroyed them on xG 2.52-0.36. Sydney have created over 2.00 expected goals in 11 of 13 home games if you discount games where they had a red card. According to Net xG, Sydney have been the best side in the A-League over the past 12 games. Taking Sydney to win at over even money looks like good value.
🇳🇱 MVV Maastricht v VVV Venlo
Over 3.0 Goal Line
bet365 - 1.73 - 0.5 Points
MVV need to win to give themselves a chance at a possible playoff promotion spot, and VVV have nothing to play for. Maastricht have been involved in many high-scoring games against similar opposition to VVV at home - 3-0, 3-3, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0, and 2-1 with a red card. VVV have been good away from home in these spots, mainly due to their defence. Their defensive work rate won't be as high with nothing to play for, but they should still be a threat going forward. The first leg ended 3-1 to MVV with 2.91 xG.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
Our data scientists have been busy! We now have xG data for a few more leagues, including Australia and Dutch Eerste!
I've had two bets today:
🇦🇺 Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Sydney FC Win
bet365 - 2.05 - 0.5 Points
Although Central Coast finished top of the regular season, our xG model has Sydney FC as the best team in the league. They comfortably beat Central Coast 2-0 back in March and destroyed them on xG 2.52-0.36. Sydney have created over 2.00 expected goals in 11 of 13 home games if you discount games where they had a red card. According to Net xG, Sydney have been the best side in the A-League over the past 12 games. Taking Sydney to win at over even money looks like good value.
🇳🇱 MVV Maastricht v VVV Venlo
Over 3.0 Goal Line
bet365 - 1.73 - 0.5 Points
MVV need to win to give themselves a chance at a possible playoff promotion spot, and VVV have nothing to play for. Maastricht have been involved in many high-scoring games against similar opposition to VVV at home - 3-0, 3-3, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0, and 2-1 with a red card. VVV have been good away from home in these spots, mainly due to their defence. Their defensive work rate won't be as high with nothing to play for, but they should still be a threat going forward. The first leg ended 3-1 to MVV with 2.91 xG.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
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Good morning all,
A very busy Saturday ahead with 7 bets across the Premier League and Europe!
🏴 Fulham v Man City
Fulham +2 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 17/20 - 0.5 Points
Both Teams To Score
bet365 - 3/4 - 0.5 Points
Is this a market overreaction to Fulham flying kites in training? City have beaten three teams away from home by three or more goals this season - Man United, Burnley, and Brighton. Fulham have lost just once at home by three or more, which oddly came against Brentford. They actually beat Arsenal and Spurs at home, and the scoreline of 5-1 flattered Man City in the first meeting. Fulham's attack can help them to cover this handicap, which will be playing with freedom in their last home game of the season.
🏴 Wolves v Crystal Palace
Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 3/4 - 1 Point
When Olise and Eze started this season, the scorelines were 4-0, 5-2, 0-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, and 2-1. Palace have five wins and two losses in those games. The market isn't factoring in how much of a difference these two make to the Palace attack. Wolves also have Hwang back up front and a couple of defensive injuries. This is also a complete dead rubber with plenty of attacking quality on show.
🏴 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Over 3.5 Goals
bet365 - 5/4 - 1 Point
Chelsea have seen over 3.5 in 12 of their last 14 Premier League games. Their attack has been more clinical in the last month, with 21 goals in seven games since the start of April. Forest are fighting relegation and have a good attacking front four capable of scoring. They've scored in 11 of 12 home games against teams outside of the top six and have scored two or more in eight. Chelsea have kept just two clean sheets in 17 away and conceded two or more in 11.
🏴 West Ham v Luton
Luton +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 21/20 - 0.5 Points
It feels like West Ham have completely given up on the season, knowing David Moyes won't be around and knocked out of Europe. They've won one of their last nine and will face a Luton side fighting for their lives at the bottom of the league. The Hatters have actually been good in this spot, with just one loss away from home against the bottom seven. West Ham have overperformed their xG all season and are a bottom six club according to our Net xG ratings.
🏴 Everton v Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd +1.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 17/20 - 0.5 Points
This is a complete dead rubber with the Blades relegated and Everton's safety secured. This is a huge handicap for Everton to cover in a regular game, but they aren't the sort of side with the attacking quality or tactical game plan to win games by a margin. They've won five games at home by more than two goals but only won two games by over 1.00 xG. The Blades have only lost two of 8 away games by two goals or more. Dyche has also said, "There might be a few changes... if we feel it's right".
🇮🇹 AC Milan v Cagliari
Over 3.0 Goal Line
bet365 - 19/20 - 1 Point
We've been backing goals in Cagliari games for the last month while they fight relegation. They've already scored against Atalanta and twice against Juventus and Inter over the past six games. Cag will be confident they can score against a Milan side with nothing to play for that has conceded three at home to Genoa and away at Sassuolo over their last four.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
A very busy Saturday ahead with 7 bets across the Premier League and Europe!
🏴 Fulham v Man City
Fulham +2 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 17/20 - 0.5 Points
Both Teams To Score
bet365 - 3/4 - 0.5 Points
Is this a market overreaction to Fulham flying kites in training? City have beaten three teams away from home by three or more goals this season - Man United, Burnley, and Brighton. Fulham have lost just once at home by three or more, which oddly came against Brentford. They actually beat Arsenal and Spurs at home, and the scoreline of 5-1 flattered Man City in the first meeting. Fulham's attack can help them to cover this handicap, which will be playing with freedom in their last home game of the season.
🏴 Wolves v Crystal Palace
Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 3/4 - 1 Point
When Olise and Eze started this season, the scorelines were 4-0, 5-2, 0-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, and 2-1. Palace have five wins and two losses in those games. The market isn't factoring in how much of a difference these two make to the Palace attack. Wolves also have Hwang back up front and a couple of defensive injuries. This is also a complete dead rubber with plenty of attacking quality on show.
🏴 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Over 3.5 Goals
bet365 - 5/4 - 1 Point
Chelsea have seen over 3.5 in 12 of their last 14 Premier League games. Their attack has been more clinical in the last month, with 21 goals in seven games since the start of April. Forest are fighting relegation and have a good attacking front four capable of scoring. They've scored in 11 of 12 home games against teams outside of the top six and have scored two or more in eight. Chelsea have kept just two clean sheets in 17 away and conceded two or more in 11.
🏴 West Ham v Luton
Luton +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 21/20 - 0.5 Points
It feels like West Ham have completely given up on the season, knowing David Moyes won't be around and knocked out of Europe. They've won one of their last nine and will face a Luton side fighting for their lives at the bottom of the league. The Hatters have actually been good in this spot, with just one loss away from home against the bottom seven. West Ham have overperformed their xG all season and are a bottom six club according to our Net xG ratings.
🏴 Everton v Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd +1.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 17/20 - 0.5 Points
This is a complete dead rubber with the Blades relegated and Everton's safety secured. This is a huge handicap for Everton to cover in a regular game, but they aren't the sort of side with the attacking quality or tactical game plan to win games by a margin. They've won five games at home by more than two goals but only won two games by over 1.00 xG. The Blades have only lost two of 8 away games by two goals or more. Dyche has also said, "There might be a few changes... if we feel it's right".
🇮🇹 AC Milan v Cagliari
Over 3.0 Goal Line
bet365 - 19/20 - 1 Point
We've been backing goals in Cagliari games for the last month while they fight relegation. They've already scored against Atalanta and twice against Juventus and Inter over the past six games. Cag will be confident they can score against a Milan side with nothing to play for that has conceded three at home to Genoa and away at Sassuolo over their last four.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
I've had these two Bet Builder's for the evening kick off.
Forest only need a point to stay up, so expect them to play more passive in this spot. They've switched to a 5-4-1, which would indicate they are looking to counter Chelsea.
Hudson-Odoi's pace on the counter can get in behind Chalobah. He's also hit the target in his last 12 straight starts. No Elanga, so they'll be even more reliant on him and Gibbs-White.
With Forest looking to play on the counter, this should increase Chelsea's shot count. Palmer has hit 2+ in every away start that wasn't against top half opposition. Jackson and Mudryk have both been in good form recently. Mudryk hitting 2+ shots in 7 of his last 8 with the only miss coming against Arsenal. Jackson has had 2+ shots in 5 straight and in 8 of his last 10.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
Forest only need a point to stay up, so expect them to play more passive in this spot. They've switched to a 5-4-1, which would indicate they are looking to counter Chelsea.
Hudson-Odoi's pace on the counter can get in behind Chalobah. He's also hit the target in his last 12 straight starts. No Elanga, so they'll be even more reliant on him and Gibbs-White.
With Forest looking to play on the counter, this should increase Chelsea's shot count. Palmer has hit 2+ in every away start that wasn't against top half opposition. Jackson and Mudryk have both been in good form recently. Mudryk hitting 2+ shots in 7 of his last 8 with the only miss coming against Arsenal. Jackson has had 2+ shots in 5 straight and in 8 of his last 10.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
Good morning all,
A nice bit of profit landed yesterday with all three 1 Point best bets landing. Palace look like a fantastic side at the moment, let's hope we get another favourable goal line in their final game against Villa next weekend!
On to today's action, where I've had four bets:
🏴 Man United v Arsenal
Man United +1.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 20/21 - 1 Point
Manchester United may have been comfortably beaten by Palace midweek, but they've been poor away from home all season. They've only suffered one defeat at home against the top eight and have beaten Villa and Chelsea. Their only defeat came against Man City, and they recently drew 2-2 with Liverpool. The Gunners have just one win away from home against the top eight, suffering two losses and three draws in the other matches. They've kept just one clean sheet in those matches, and United have scored two in four of five against the top eight at Old Trafford.
🏴 Norwich v Leeds
Norwich +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 20/21 - 0.5 Points
Leeds have won three of nine away against the top half in the Championship, but when you dig into the underlying metrics, they lost the expected goals battle in three, which includes their 3-2 win over the Canaries. Norwich have lost two other home games against the top half, but they came without Josh Sargent. They are unbeaten in 84% of games where he starts, and without him, they've lost 48%. Leeds have also stumbled in high-pressure situations in the run-in, with losses away at QPR and Coventry and home to Blackburn.
🇪🇸 Cadiz v Getafe
Getafe +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point
Cadiz fighting for relegation and needing points to stay up has been over priced in the market. Getafe are unbeaten away from home against sides in the bottom six. Cadiz have won just once in their home games against sides in the bottom eight, so why are they favoured over a mid-table side? Getafe have individual quality in their side and can avoid defeat.
🇮🇹 Verona v Torino
Verona Draw No Bet
bet365 - 11/10 - 1 Point
Torino are comfortably mid-table and winless in their last five. They've already lost away at Empoli, who are battling relegation like Verona. The home side have good wins over Fiorentina and Udinese in their last two home games and see this as another good spot to pick up points in their fight for survival. These two sides have been pretty even over the past six games on net xG, so when you factor in the added motivation and home advantage 11/10 for Draw No Bet looks like a solid value bet.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
A nice bit of profit landed yesterday with all three 1 Point best bets landing. Palace look like a fantastic side at the moment, let's hope we get another favourable goal line in their final game against Villa next weekend!
On to today's action, where I've had four bets:
🏴 Man United v Arsenal
Man United +1.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 20/21 - 1 Point
Manchester United may have been comfortably beaten by Palace midweek, but they've been poor away from home all season. They've only suffered one defeat at home against the top eight and have beaten Villa and Chelsea. Their only defeat came against Man City, and they recently drew 2-2 with Liverpool. The Gunners have just one win away from home against the top eight, suffering two losses and three draws in the other matches. They've kept just one clean sheet in those matches, and United have scored two in four of five against the top eight at Old Trafford.
🏴 Norwich v Leeds
Norwich +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 20/21 - 0.5 Points
Leeds have won three of nine away against the top half in the Championship, but when you dig into the underlying metrics, they lost the expected goals battle in three, which includes their 3-2 win over the Canaries. Norwich have lost two other home games against the top half, but they came without Josh Sargent. They are unbeaten in 84% of games where he starts, and without him, they've lost 48%. Leeds have also stumbled in high-pressure situations in the run-in, with losses away at QPR and Coventry and home to Blackburn.
🇪🇸 Cadiz v Getafe
Getafe +0.5 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point
Cadiz fighting for relegation and needing points to stay up has been over priced in the market. Getafe are unbeaten away from home against sides in the bottom six. Cadiz have won just once in their home games against sides in the bottom eight, so why are they favoured over a mid-table side? Getafe have individual quality in their side and can avoid defeat.
🇮🇹 Verona v Torino
Verona Draw No Bet
bet365 - 11/10 - 1 Point
Torino are comfortably mid-table and winless in their last five. They've already lost away at Empoli, who are battling relegation like Verona. The home side have good wins over Fiorentina and Udinese in their last two home games and see this as another good spot to pick up points in their fight for survival. These two sides have been pretty even over the past six games on net xG, so when you factor in the added motivation and home advantage 11/10 for Draw No Bet looks like a solid value bet.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
⚽️ Man United v Arsenal Offers ⚽️
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We will be using PP and Betfair a lot during the Euros for Bet Builders, so get an account ready if you don't have one!
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We will be using PP and Betfair a lot during the Euros for Bet Builders, so get an account ready if you don't have one!
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50/1 Man United ▶️ https://bit.ly/Parimatch-MUNvARS-TG
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Man United v Arsenal Bet Builders
I think the pace of Garnacho and Diallo could cause Arsenal some issues on the counter. Diallo has had a shot in 7 of his 11 appearances and has played no more than a half but is averaging 2.98 shots per 90, small sample but he's the type of player that could cause problems here. Garnacho has had 2+ shots in 10 of his 12 home PL starts. McTominay is playing in the 10 in Bruno's absence. He did against City at home where he took two shots, both on target. He's going to be getting a good shift with Bruno and Rashford out of the squad.
The fouls bet follows a similar trend with Gabriel playing left CB being vulnerable to the pace of Diallo and maybe Antony in the second half on the counter. He's committed a foul in 11 of 17 away. Casemiro is a foul machine anyway but he's filling in at CB and has 2+ in his last 3 games. Wan-Bisakka has a foul in six of his seven home PL starts and will be up against Saka.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
I think the pace of Garnacho and Diallo could cause Arsenal some issues on the counter. Diallo has had a shot in 7 of his 11 appearances and has played no more than a half but is averaging 2.98 shots per 90, small sample but he's the type of player that could cause problems here. Garnacho has had 2+ shots in 10 of his 12 home PL starts. McTominay is playing in the 10 in Bruno's absence. He did against City at home where he took two shots, both on target. He's going to be getting a good shift with Bruno and Rashford out of the squad.
The fouls bet follows a similar trend with Gabriel playing left CB being vulnerable to the pace of Diallo and maybe Antony in the second half on the counter. He's committed a foul in 11 of 17 away. Casemiro is a foul machine anyway but he's filling in at CB and has 2+ in his last 3 games. Wan-Bisakka has a foul in six of his seven home PL starts and will be up against Saka.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
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I've had another two bets:
🇮🇹 Atalanta v Roma
Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point
Over 3.5 Goals
bet365 - 13/8 - 0.5 Points
Both teams are very good for goals, which is the main reason for the bets. Pasalic in centre midfield for Atalanta lacks defensive discipline. A big to play for spot with the final Champions League spot up for grabs. Atalanta are much more aggressive at home, which we know from Thursday's Europa League winner and Roma have seen over 2.5 land in 11/15 in Serie A under De Rossi.
🇮🇹 Atalanta v Roma
Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point
Over 3.5 Goals
bet365 - 13/8 - 0.5 Points
Both teams are very good for goals, which is the main reason for the bets. Pasalic in centre midfield for Atalanta lacks defensive discipline. A big to play for spot with the final Champions League spot up for grabs. Atalanta are much more aggressive at home, which we know from Thursday's Europa League winner and Roma have seen over 2.5 land in 11/15 in Serie A under De Rossi.
Good morning all,
A mixed bag yesterday for the best bets but around evens with 2.5 wins and 2.5 losses. I was annoyed when I saw no Bruno in the United team after he'd been training and the massive drift but it was still right side without him.
Tonight's Prem game is a bit of a difficult one to bet. It's a spot I'd be looking to fade Liverpool with just one win away at top-half teams this season, but Villa's home losses to good sides have all come off short rest - Newcastle, United, and Spurs. The goal line looks high enough at 4/5 for over 3.5 too, so I'll stay away from the major markets and look for a Bet Builder angle after team news.
I have made one bet in Italy, though:
🇮🇹 Lecce v Udinese
Over 2.0 Goal Line
bet365 - 8/11 - 1 Point
Udinese are fighting for survival in Serie A and need to get something from this game. We've seen their games open up in recent weeks, with seven of their last eight seeing two or more goals. Lecce have solid attacking numbers at home and have scored in seven of their eight home games against sides in the bottom half. Udinese have kept just two clean sheets away from home in 11 games against sides outside the top six, so they are going to likely need to push to score if they want at least a point from the game. The first meeting ended 1-1 with 2.56 expected goals.
Best of luck if you follow 👍
A mixed bag yesterday for the best bets but around evens with 2.5 wins and 2.5 losses. I was annoyed when I saw no Bruno in the United team after he'd been training and the massive drift but it was still right side without him.
Tonight's Prem game is a bit of a difficult one to bet. It's a spot I'd be looking to fade Liverpool with just one win away at top-half teams this season, but Villa's home losses to good sides have all come off short rest - Newcastle, United, and Spurs. The goal line looks high enough at 4/5 for over 3.5 too, so I'll stay away from the major markets and look for a Bet Builder angle after team news.
I have made one bet in Italy, though:
🇮🇹 Lecce v Udinese
Over 2.0 Goal Line
bet365 - 8/11 - 1 Point
Udinese are fighting for survival in Serie A and need to get something from this game. We've seen their games open up in recent weeks, with seven of their last eight seeing two or more goals. Lecce have solid attacking numbers at home and have scored in seven of their eight home games against sides in the bottom half. Udinese have kept just two clean sheets away from home in 11 games against sides outside the top six, so they are going to likely need to push to score if they want at least a point from the game. The first meeting ended 1-1 with 2.56 expected goals.
Best of luck if you follow 👍