Good morning all,

A good start to the weekend with 2/2 last night! Today looks fairly tricky though and I'm only having a few small bets.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa v Chelsea
Over 3.5 Goals

bet365 - 11/10 - 0.5 Points

Chelsea have been in plenty of goal fests recently. They've seen over 3.5 land in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 in the Premier League. Villa have seen over 3.5 land in three of their last four and five of eight home games against sides in the top half. Chelsea have a fair number of defensive injuries with Gusto, Chilwell, James, Colwill and Fernandez missing.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Cardiff v Middlesbrough
Over 2.5 Goals

bet365 - 10/11 - 0.5 Points

A nothing to play for spot, which usually gives goals an upgrade anyway but Boro's away games have averaged 3.27 goals and they've seen over 2.5 land in 68%. Cardiff have been safe for a few games and have seen over 2.5 land in four of their last five.

🇪🇸 Atletico Madrid v Bilbao
Over 2.5 Goals

bet365 - 21/20 - 0.5 Points

A fairly important game for fourth spot in La Liga, which gives Champions League football next season. Atletico have seen over 2.5 land in seven of eight at home against sides in the top half of La Liga. Bilbao have only seen over 2.5 in one of four away at the top six but their underlying metrics are good with three of four seeing over 2.70 xG, so odds against for over 2.5 goals looks good here.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

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Thinking of doing some player bets with MGM today, so get your accounts ready if you want to follow along.

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✅️ Cardiff 0-4 Middlesbrough

We make it three in a row. On to the two bets on the late games 👍

✅️ Villa 2-2 Chelsea
✅️ Atletico 3-1 Bilbao

That's 3/3 for the day and 5/5 on the weekend so far.

Hopefully some of you made a few quid today following.

Back in the morning 👍

Good morning all,

A good day yesterday. I'm travelling this morning, so I'll keep it brief.

Just one bet from me so far today:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Nottingham Forest v Man City
Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line

Bet365 - 10/11 - 1 Point

Analysis to be added later. Travelling with a toddler isn't a good time to focus on the writeup.

Back later 👍

Morning all,

Glad to come out of the weekend with a bit of profit. I thought the games were tricky across the board in all leagues we bet. There's no issue with having a low volume weekend, there's plenty of games on every day.

I've had three bets today:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Preston v Leicester

Preston +1 AH
bet365 - 10/13 - 0.5 Points

Over 2.5 Goals
bet365 - 3/4 - 0.5 Points

These have both already been bet this morning. Leicester secured promotion on Friday night, so they have probably been on the beers most of the weekend. Preston have been good at home all season and only lost two of eight at home against the top 10 in the Champ. It's impressive, considering they've kept just one clean sheet and conceded two or more in four of those matches. Leicester have also only won one of eight by two goals or more away against top 10 teams. It's a tight league, and winning by multiple goals away from home is difficult against respectable sides. Preston have seen over 2.5 land in six of eight against top 10 sides, and Leicester have in five of eight. This could also have a friendly feel with Preston sitting in 10th.

🇮🇹 Genoa v Cagliari
Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line

bet365 - 4/5 - 0.5 Points

Cag are fighting for survival in Serie A and will see this as a winnable game. Their last three games have ended 2-2 v Juve, 2-2 at Inter, and 2-1 v Atalanta. Their underlying metrics are good, too, with over 1xG created against Juve and Inter. Cag have scored away in five of seven against sides in the bottom half. Genoa have scored six home games against sides in the bottom eight, so Cag likely have to score to get a result. This is a good to play for spot for upgrading goals, too.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

✅️ Over 2 - Genoa v Cag
✅️ Over 2.5 - Preston v Leicester
❌️ Preston +1

Wee bit of profit on the day, can't complain too much. Preston was completely the wrong side but nevermind. On to tomorrow 👍

Back in the morning.

Morning all,

I think the lines are about right in the Champions League game and I may have a player bet after teams are announced but I don't see any value in the main markets.

I've had one bet in the Championship:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Coventry v Ipswich
Coventry +1 AH

bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point

This is a good spot to back Coventry. Ipswich are winless in four and have only won two of eight away against the top ten. I think they'd be okay with a point, so the game could get stuck at 1-1. This would put them one point ahead of Leeds in second place, with Huddersfield at home on the final day and Leeds hosting Southampton. Coventry would have only lost by two or more in four of their 44 games this season. Weirdly, two of those came away at relegated Rotherham and Birmingham, who are also in a relegation battle. Ipswich have won the expected goals battle by more than 0.50 in just one of six of their last away, which came at Plymouth. They've also allowed over 1.00 xG in four of six. It's difficult to cover these big handicaps when conceding, and Coventry have shown their attacking quality in recent weeks, scoring three in their comeback against Manchester United.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

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Good afternoon all,

Something a bit different today. Basically I'm trying to get PSG on side as I think they are value. However, I don't want to back a road favourite in the first leg of a knockout game when they will be fine drawing 1-1 and may not push in the latter stages if the scores are level.

I think this is a very solid angle that I've backed with one point. You can also get a 25% boost if you back it on bet365.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

Good evening all,

We are waiting on teams for two bets tonight.

Please keep notifications on if you are interested in following 🔔

First bet of the night.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea v Spurs
Over 3.5 Asian Goal Line

Bet365 - 1.78 - 1 Point

Chelsea have gone over 3.5 in 8 straiggt and 11 of their last 12 Premier League games. Spurs have gone over 3.5 in 5 of their last 7 away. They've also gone over 3.5 away at sides in the top 8 in five of six. Spurs with Royal and Porro playing wingback and Cucurella is a liability in defense too. Alfie Gilchrist will be up against Son in just his second Prem start.

No more bets in Europe. Teams aren't quite good enough 👍

Good afternoon all,

A bit disappointed with Spurs performance last night. Kulusevski has really dropped off since the start of the season and they just lacked creativity in midfield!

We move on to today with two bets anyway:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Luton v Everton
Over 2.5 Goals

Bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point

This is obviously a must-win spot for Luton against an Everton side with nothing to play for. Everton have scored two or more away from home in four of their five matches against the bottom seven. It's quite remarkable given their xG performance on the season overall. Luton have kept just two clean sheets at home in 17, so they will likely need to push for at least two goals to win the game. It should be a back-and-forth type match with goals being upgraded for Everton having nothing to play for.

🇪🇸 Getafe v Bilbao
Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line

Bet365 - 17/20 - 1 Point

Bilbao have drastic splits away against good and poor sides in La Liga. They are undefeated against bottom half sides in the table and have kept a clean sheet in seven of eight. However, against the top-half sides, they won once in eight, haven't kept a clean sheet, and conceded two or more in five. Getafe have nothing to play for and have scored in 11 of 16 at home. The first meeting ended 2-2, and Bilbao have a very slim chance of catching Atletico for fourth, and basically, no risk of falling out of the European places, so they may as well push for the win in all remaining games.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

Morning all,

Who would be interested in a final day Championship acca?

Drop a reaction if you are 👍

Here's my Championship final day acca.

I've targeted the games where there's things to play for. Some good spots for goals where you have big favourites like Ipswich and Leicester but the underdog needs to get something from the game.

Best bets will be up shortly 👍

Bet Builder selection for Arsenal v Bournemouth.

We have a good couple of angles here.

Havertz is playing through the middle as a CF. He's been mixing between playing up top, deeper and out wide recently but 4/9 for him to have a SOT is a great bet.

Then we have Rice playing further forward with Partey in the lineup, who will obviously sit deeper and allow him to get forward. He's also had a shot in his last 7 starts.

Saka tops this off. He's had 2+ shots in 1 of this last 20 starts with his only miss away at Man City. He's also had 3+ shots in each of his last 5 Prem starts.

✅️ Bet Builder lands in 14 minutes 🤣

Two best bets for the Premier League 3pm's:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brentford v Fulham
Fulham +0.5 Asian Handicap

bet365 - 1.84 - 1 Point

Brentford have been good in recent weeks but they've won just one home game against teams outside of the bottom six. Those two wins came against Luton and Sheffield United, which is the kind of spot they've performed well in all season. Fulham have lost just one of six away against sides in the bottom eight away from home.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Sheffield Utd v Forest
Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line

bet365 - 20/21 - 1 Point

Sheffield Utd games have been goalfests for quite some time now. They've seen four or more goals in eight of their last ten Premier League games. Forest have Wood, Elanga, Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi starting, so a very attacking from four. They've also conceded two or more in each of their last four, which includes games against Wolves and Everton.

I'll have a look through the player bet markets now too.

Bet Builder for Brentford v Fulham. 1 point.

Targeting Reguilon here who has a shot in nine of his ten starts for Brentford with the only miss coming away at Wolves. Brentford are playing a 5-3-2, so expect him to bomb on down the wings from full back. Muniz is a shot machine with 2+ in all 15 of his last PL starts. He's hit 3+ in his last eight straight games.