Sunteck Realty
Recently, promoter groups started buying from the open market. It is happening when the Nifty Realty index is breaking out 16 years high.
Obviously, there is some development in this sector that has not happened in the last decade.
Yesterday, in an interview by Rajib Thakkar from Parag Parikh fund house, he was asked the same question. What were his views.
He said that in the Long term, this sector failed to create wealth. So, he will take a pass.
Putting a contradictory view on the same post. The idea is to observe and learn and observe again. No need to buy the tickets to see the show. Learning is free.
Recently, promoter groups started buying from the open market. It is happening when the Nifty Realty index is breaking out 16 years high.
Obviously, there is some development in this sector that has not happened in the last decade.
Yesterday, in an interview by Rajib Thakkar from Parag Parikh fund house, he was asked the same question. What were his views.
He said that in the Long term, this sector failed to create wealth. So, he will take a pass.
Putting a contradictory view on the same post. The idea is to observe and learn and observe again. No need to buy the tickets to see the show. Learning is free.
Amine Story
A lot of stories have been spread over Amine sectors. Many people made good money and many lost. It is a cyclical business, we have repeatedly expressed the reason. The same we have done for glass line company.
Balaji Anime published its results.
Revenue down by 62%
Profit margin collapsed from 27% to 14%.
Typical signature of cyclicality. There is a good time to enter for this type of business and exit also.
Similar is applicable for Rain Industries as well.
A lot of beginners ask this question. I don't have money to invest. How do I make money.
Well, if anyone is young, tracking business and learning through it is invaluable. Because knowledge also compounds.
P.S. I never liked Aarti Industries for multiple reasons. In fact, we made a video on this. Listened to all concall from 2018. Now, I cannot keep my eyes off from this company. It is sitting on the top of my watchlist.
A lot of stories have been spread over Amine sectors. Many people made good money and many lost. It is a cyclical business, we have repeatedly expressed the reason. The same we have done for glass line company.
Balaji Anime published its results.
Revenue down by 62%
Profit margin collapsed from 27% to 14%.
Typical signature of cyclicality. There is a good time to enter for this type of business and exit also.
Similar is applicable for Rain Industries as well.
A lot of beginners ask this question. I don't have money to invest. How do I make money.
Well, if anyone is young, tracking business and learning through it is invaluable. Because knowledge also compounds.
P.S. I never liked Aarti Industries for multiple reasons. In fact, we made a video on this. Listened to all concall from 2018. Now, I cannot keep my eyes off from this company. It is sitting on the top of my watchlist.
Abbott India
Revenue up by 10%
Expenses up by 7%
Profit up by 18%
Same-old-boring-story.
Revenue growth will be okkk.
Operating margin will increase. And profit growth will be ahead of revenue growth.
This time, Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 25.5%. Last year, same quarter 24.9%.
This business converts almost all of its profit into cash.
So, CFO also increased by 18%.
Invested. Biased. No recommendation.
Revenue up by 10%
Expenses up by 7%
Profit up by 18%
Same-old-boring-story.
Revenue growth will be okkk.
Operating margin will increase. And profit growth will be ahead of revenue growth.
This time, Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 25.5%. Last year, same quarter 24.9%.
This business converts almost all of its profit into cash.
So, CFO also increased by 18%.
Invested. Biased. No recommendation.
A Quite Update
My stock portfolio remained intact, managed not to touch it.
Mutual fund investment:
No withdrawal. Reduced SIP amount in small cap mutual funds. Managed not to touch amid the noise that the smallcap is in the bubble.
As I reduced SIP, some money is staying in cash. I believe that opportunity would show up in a few quarters. Until that, I will try to remain patient.
This is my action, no buy, sell or hold recommendations.
My stock portfolio remained intact, managed not to touch it.
Mutual fund investment:
No withdrawal. Reduced SIP amount in small cap mutual funds. Managed not to touch amid the noise that the smallcap is in the bubble.
As I reduced SIP, some money is staying in cash. I believe that opportunity would show up in a few quarters. Until that, I will try to remain patient.
This is my action, no buy, sell or hold recommendations.
What are you doing in your portfolio?
Anonymous Poll
19%
Buying more
33%
Buying but in less quantity
8%
Selling
40%
No action
Same as Ever
By Morgan Housel, the book, "Same as Ever" is a masterpiece. I loved the description of risk.
What nobody is predicting, will turn out to be a gamechanger. And this can be a real risk.
To mitigate that, the author suggested to have sufficient cash. How much is sufficient?
The author says that there is no Excel sheet to estimate that. One should have a feeling that this amount of cash is too much.
This message is more relevant when the market is zooming.
If you have been investing regularly for a while, your portfolio is shaping up well. If you are a recent investor, you will get fair chances as well.
Do not get carried away by Greed. The toughest challenge will be to stay rational and lower our expectations.
By Morgan Housel, the book, "Same as Ever" is a masterpiece. I loved the description of risk.
What nobody is predicting, will turn out to be a gamechanger. And this can be a real risk.
To mitigate that, the author suggested to have sufficient cash. How much is sufficient?
The author says that there is no Excel sheet to estimate that. One should have a feeling that this amount of cash is too much.
This message is more relevant when the market is zooming.
If you have been investing regularly for a while, your portfolio is shaping up well. If you are a recent investor, you will get fair chances as well.
Do not get carried away by Greed. The toughest challenge will be to stay rational and lower our expectations.
HDFC Bank
Q3 profit grew by 2%
Net Interest Margin 4% remains intact.
Tax rate in this quarter was lower which reflects in Q-o-Q profit jump.
First time, in decade, EPS declined. (Yearly)
Negative Sentiment may reach its peak now.
Average Price to Book ratio of HDFC Bank in last ten years: 4.3.
Now, it is trading at a PB ratio of nearly 3.
It may stay at this level or may go below this.
Or go up as the company delivers good results.
One must assess the probability of each and accordingly take a call.
My position at HDFC remains untouched.
Q3 profit grew by 2%
Net Interest Margin 4% remains intact.
Tax rate in this quarter was lower which reflects in Q-o-Q profit jump.
First time, in decade, EPS declined. (Yearly)
Negative Sentiment may reach its peak now.
Average Price to Book ratio of HDFC Bank in last ten years: 4.3.
Now, it is trading at a PB ratio of nearly 3.
It may stay at this level or may go below this.
Or go up as the company delivers good results.
One must assess the probability of each and accordingly take a call.
My position at HDFC remains untouched.
No Place to Hide!
When the setup of the battlefield is against you, there is no point of showing courage and lose. Rather, you need to find shelter and places to hide. The objective is to PROTECT YOURSELF...to flight another day!
The market has run up significantly in last year. The valuation has heated up and is now causing worry to deploy incremental money.
Because, one cannot risk not to participate in the market. In short, you have to stay in the market. Where to go?
PE
Nifty 50: 23.5
Nifty Midcap: 27.3
Nifty Smallcap: 28.4
It is said that the son of Ravaana, Indrajeet, had special abilities to hide behind the cloud and fight against the enemy.
I am in search of the cloud now!
P.S. I am currently making some changes in my mutual fund portfolio. More updates will follow!
When the setup of the battlefield is against you, there is no point of showing courage and lose. Rather, you need to find shelter and places to hide. The objective is to PROTECT YOURSELF...to flight another day!
The market has run up significantly in last year. The valuation has heated up and is now causing worry to deploy incremental money.
Because, one cannot risk not to participate in the market. In short, you have to stay in the market. Where to go?
PE
Nifty 50: 23.5
Nifty Midcap: 27.3
Nifty Smallcap: 28.4
It is said that the son of Ravaana, Indrajeet, had special abilities to hide behind the cloud and fight against the enemy.
I am in search of the cloud now!
P.S. I am currently making some changes in my mutual fund portfolio. More updates will follow!
Asian Paints
Revenue up by 7%
Expenses up by 4%
Profit up by 20%
(Q-o-Q)
Y-o-Y (this Q vs. Last Y Same Q.)
Revenue up by 5%
Expenses up by 1%
Profit up by 35%
Profit is driven by the low price of Raw Materials.
Operating Profit Margin (OPM)
This Q: 22.3%
Last Q: 20%
Last Year Same Q: 18.4%
Revenue up by 7%
Expenses up by 4%
Profit up by 20%
(Q-o-Q)
Y-o-Y (this Q vs. Last Y Same Q.)
Revenue up by 5%
Expenses up by 1%
Profit up by 35%
Profit is driven by the low price of Raw Materials.
Operating Profit Margin (OPM)
This Q: 22.3%
Last Q: 20%
Last Year Same Q: 18.4%
Mutual Fund Updates
In 2023, my mutual fund portfolio zoomed by ~40%. This growth was majorly driven by the small cap funds.
As you probably know, I have a sizable portion of money invested in Parag Parikh Flexi cap fund. This fund also garnered ~37% return last year.
So, in short, small cap funds rallied and parag Parikh flexi cap fund gave a stellar return. Altogether, mutual fund portfolio did very well well.
Action on Last Year:
Last year, I invested a good amount of lumpsum in a small cap fund during May-June. It increased my allocation towards the small cap that time. And in the last six months, rally in a small cap further skewed my weightage on the small cap fund more.
Now:
While ending the year 2023, the allocation increased to 41% in the small cap.
I have started trimming my position at the small cap funds, and probably bring close to 25%. I am putting this money on Bank Nifty. Trimming will continue for some time and my position at Bank nifty will be built at the same pace.
Why Bank Nifty? If you see the PB ratio of Bank Nifty over five years, you will get the answer.
P.S. This action fits my risk-reward appetite, may not be suitable for you. Because each one of us is on a different journey. So, no buy or sell recommendation, as usual.
In 2023, my mutual fund portfolio zoomed by ~40%. This growth was majorly driven by the small cap funds.
As you probably know, I have a sizable portion of money invested in Parag Parikh Flexi cap fund. This fund also garnered ~37% return last year.
So, in short, small cap funds rallied and parag Parikh flexi cap fund gave a stellar return. Altogether, mutual fund portfolio did very well well.
Action on Last Year:
Last year, I invested a good amount of lumpsum in a small cap fund during May-June. It increased my allocation towards the small cap that time. And in the last six months, rally in a small cap further skewed my weightage on the small cap fund more.
Now:
While ending the year 2023, the allocation increased to 41% in the small cap.
I have started trimming my position at the small cap funds, and probably bring close to 25%. I am putting this money on Bank Nifty. Trimming will continue for some time and my position at Bank nifty will be built at the same pace.
Why Bank Nifty? If you see the PB ratio of Bank Nifty over five years, you will get the answer.
P.S. This action fits my risk-reward appetite, may not be suitable for you. Because each one of us is on a different journey. So, no buy or sell recommendation, as usual.
Sharekhan_Agri_Inputs_and_Specialty_Chemicals_Review_Muted_Q3,_Recovery.pdf
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Sharekhan_Agri_Inputs_and_Specialty_Chemicals_Review_Muted_Q3,_Recovery.pdf
Sold Asian Paints!
Today, I sold Asian Paints.
Reasons:
1. Asset creation in this industry intensified. This rate is faster than industry growth. Hence, the profitability of the sector will go down.
2. I still believe that Asian Paints will remain the strongest players for at least a decade. However, ROCE of Asian Paints will gradually absorb the shock. And when it happens, PE will continue to de-rate. If the profitability keeps up the pace, this de-rating will keep the stock price in consolidation. This is the bull case.
3. Bear case will include scenarios like, a price war in paint outbreaks rapidly and the margin takes a sharp hit. In this case, profit growth will slow down while PE de-rates even faster. Stock price corrects and swings in a price band for a longer time.
4. Though I love this business, I know that the business does not love me. I see the risk-reward ratio not favouring me. I remained uncertain and took a rational approach to take a sidestep and watch the show. Hence, exited.
Today, I sold Asian Paints.
Reasons:
1. Asset creation in this industry intensified. This rate is faster than industry growth. Hence, the profitability of the sector will go down.
2. I still believe that Asian Paints will remain the strongest players for at least a decade. However, ROCE of Asian Paints will gradually absorb the shock. And when it happens, PE will continue to de-rate. If the profitability keeps up the pace, this de-rating will keep the stock price in consolidation. This is the bull case.
3. Bear case will include scenarios like, a price war in paint outbreaks rapidly and the margin takes a sharp hit. In this case, profit growth will slow down while PE de-rates even faster. Stock price corrects and swings in a price band for a longer time.
4. Though I love this business, I know that the business does not love me. I see the risk-reward ratio not favouring me. I remained uncertain and took a rational approach to take a sidestep and watch the show. Hence, exited.
Was the Selling of AP a blunder?
Anonymous Poll
31%
Of course, Yes
39%
Not sure, will see
30%
Rational decision
I sold Relaxo more than a year now. Does it look like a mistake now?
Anonymous Poll
21%
Yes
62%
No
17%
Short time, so cannot comment
I did not sell Abbott India two years back and still own it. Does it look like a mistake now?
Anonymous Poll
25%
Yes
58%
No
17%
Have to wait and see