Powerful thoughts
When you are fine and healthy, you have many problems in life. But you are not fine and have health issues, you have only one problem.
-
Shaolin Warrior
When you are fine and healthy, you have many problems in life. But you are not fine and have health issues, you have only one problem.
-
Shaolin Warrior
I have heard so many good praises from this book. Time to read...
Today's world attention is the most rare commodity. Thumb is doing endless scrolling without gaining anything. Dopamine rush is killing our intelligence and making us dumb.
A beautiful way to break the loop is to read books!
There is no good day to start something than today. No one is stopping you !
Today's world attention is the most rare commodity. Thumb is doing endless scrolling without gaining anything. Dopamine rush is killing our intelligence and making us dumb.
A beautiful way to break the loop is to read books!
There is no good day to start something than today. No one is stopping you !
Internet business
Many of the app-based internet businesses are profitable. Don't ignore them because you cannot live without them.
These are new raising giants. Check for revenue growth more than 20+ %. Operating Leverage will be an in-built feature here.
These are moated businesses because there is no alternative.
Remain flexible. The fact has changed. They are not loss making anymore!
Many of the app-based internet businesses are profitable. Don't ignore them because you cannot live without them.
These are new raising giants. Check for revenue growth more than 20+ %. Operating Leverage will be an in-built feature here.
These are moated businesses because there is no alternative.
Remain flexible. The fact has changed. They are not loss making anymore!
👍2
Retail Edge now cuts sharp
Earlier, only a big or institutional team could do this after reading hundreds of pages of Concall and PPT. Now, retail investors can access these types of resources almost for free.
Thanks to AI, I can track 100+ companies. It was almost impossible few years back!
Earlier, only a big or institutional team could do this after reading hundreds of pages of Concall and PPT. Now, retail investors can access these types of resources almost for free.
Thanks to AI, I can track 100+ companies. It was almost impossible few years back!
👍2
Here is a new Age Internet Business
Urban Company. Understand how to read the numbers!
https://youtu.be/HBXJfIqh6n4
Urban Company. Understand how to read the numbers!
https://youtu.be/HBXJfIqh6n4
YouTube
How to Read Urban Company - Simplified | Q1FY27 Number
Understand Urban Company’s numbers — simply and without complicated financial jargon.
In this video, we break down Urban Company’s financial performance and try to understand what the numbers are really telling us about the business.
Instead of just looking…
In this video, we break down Urban Company’s financial performance and try to understand what the numbers are really telling us about the business.
Instead of just looking…
❤2
Recently Listed company
Milky mist management - Concall Notes
95% of the paneer sold in India is from unorganized sector. Only 5% is organized.
Also, a high proportion of the paneer sold in unorganized sector is analogue paneer (a cheap, factory-made imitation of traditional dairy paneer that uses vegetable oils, starches, and chemical additives instead of pure milk).
Govt/FSSAI is planning to ban Analogue Paneer.
Milky Mist is having almost 20% share of organized market.
Their capacity utilization is just 50%, can generate 3X revenue from the current plant.
Milky mist management - Concall Notes
95% of the paneer sold in India is from unorganized sector. Only 5% is organized.
Also, a high proportion of the paneer sold in unorganized sector is analogue paneer (a cheap, factory-made imitation of traditional dairy paneer that uses vegetable oils, starches, and chemical additives instead of pure milk).
Govt/FSSAI is planning to ban Analogue Paneer.
Milky Mist is having almost 20% share of organized market.
Their capacity utilization is just 50%, can generate 3X revenue from the current plant.
Years of reading and learning are distilled in this audio.
Do listen for learning. And try not to multitask while listening 🎧.
Pure knowledge!
Do listen for learning. And try not to multitask while listening 🎧.
Pure knowledge!
A very Boring Routine
People are mocking my process often saying that it is dead compounding. Well, I have nothing to defend.
I am a simple person with a plan. My routine and process are boring. Here it goes..
1. Get up and drink water and go to daylight before checking the phone. Non-negotiable.
2. Go for a walk for at least 20 min. Non-negotiable. Run weekly once at least. Non-negotiable.
3. Return, take bath and have a healthy breakfast. The menu can change but not the concept
A. Protein 25 gm
B. Nuts (almond, Kaju) for healthy fat
C. Milk or some dairy products
D. Any one fruit based on session
E. Chia seeds for fibre.
It's at no scale cheap, in fact, a very expensive one.
But my thought process is clear that I get only one body in this birth. I have to take care. Cars, Bikes, Netflix, movie tickets are not my priority. No OTT subscription I have currently. Only Claude and ChatGPT subscription for boosting my work and research.
You may criticize my routine. It is very monotonous. The fact is...I do not gulp any pill and plan to not gulp any in coming at least three decades.
P.S. The biggest challenge I face is... getting separated from the community because my approach is different. I have to learn to live with this.
People are mocking my process often saying that it is dead compounding. Well, I have nothing to defend.
I am a simple person with a plan. My routine and process are boring. Here it goes..
1. Get up and drink water and go to daylight before checking the phone. Non-negotiable.
2. Go for a walk for at least 20 min. Non-negotiable. Run weekly once at least. Non-negotiable.
3. Return, take bath and have a healthy breakfast. The menu can change but not the concept
A. Protein 25 gm
B. Nuts (almond, Kaju) for healthy fat
C. Milk or some dairy products
D. Any one fruit based on session
E. Chia seeds for fibre.
It's at no scale cheap, in fact, a very expensive one.
But my thought process is clear that I get only one body in this birth. I have to take care. Cars, Bikes, Netflix, movie tickets are not my priority. No OTT subscription I have currently. Only Claude and ChatGPT subscription for boosting my work and research.
You may criticize my routine. It is very monotonous. The fact is...I do not gulp any pill and plan to not gulp any in coming at least three decades.
P.S. The biggest challenge I face is... getting separated from the community because my approach is different. I have to learn to live with this.
❤6
Read three times.
Especially, the last point
JEFFERIES ON BANKS
• FCNR-B mobilisation crossed $60 bn in just 10 days, taking total flows to $136 bn, ~4x the 2013 scheme flows.
• Strong flows enhance banking-system liquidity ahead of the festive season and may help keep rates lower.
• RBI may absorb some liquidity via repo operations; Jefferies sees a lower probability of a CRR hike.
• FCNR-B could lower NIMs, but remains accretive to NII.
• Better liquidity expected to benefit NBFCs and smaller private banks.
Especially, the last point
JEFFERIES ON BANKS
• FCNR-B mobilisation crossed $60 bn in just 10 days, taking total flows to $136 bn, ~4x the 2013 scheme flows.
• Strong flows enhance banking-system liquidity ahead of the festive season and may help keep rates lower.
• RBI may absorb some liquidity via repo operations; Jefferies sees a lower probability of a CRR hike.
• FCNR-B could lower NIMs, but remains accretive to NII.
• Better liquidity expected to benefit NBFCs and smaller private banks.
Proof
If you have listened to the last audio, you will know that companies from India are expanding to other countries...have a low probability of success.
Here is another example.
TATA CHEMICALS:
Kenya's president orders Tata Chemicals to end operations in the country , Says its presence had failed to benefit the country.
PS: If you have not listened yet, you are missing something very important. Do listen.
If you have listened to the last audio, you will know that companies from India are expanding to other countries...have a low probability of success.
Here is another example.
TATA CHEMICALS:
Kenya's president orders Tata Chemicals to end operations in the country , Says its presence had failed to benefit the country.
PS: If you have not listened yet, you are missing something very important. Do listen.
❤2
Interesting Updates
Sterlite Tech
Management said business is at a pivotal moment with scale of opportunity enhanced significantly by AI data centers (DC).
AI DC needs are very different from traditional DC, including higher AI density driving multi-fold growth besides interconnection between DCs.
In addition to US DC opportunity for STL Indian market will also see 10G by 2030 from the current 1.5GW.
India’s DC market will provide an added opportunity for STL to extend global relationships to the home market
STL is targeting Rs200bn revenue by FY29 (vs estimate of Rs104bn with margin of 27% (vs estimate of 23%).
STL will be expanding capacity to 1.5x to enable the next growth phase and will invest Rs10bn annually including a new greenfield manufacturing facility in India
Management said business is at a pivotal moment with scale of opportunity enhanced significantly by AI data centers (DC).
AI DC needs are very different from traditional DC, including higher AI density driving multi-fold growth besides interconnection between DCs.
Sterlite Tech
Management said business is at a pivotal moment with scale of opportunity enhanced significantly by AI data centers (DC).
AI DC needs are very different from traditional DC, including higher AI density driving multi-fold growth besides interconnection between DCs.
In addition to US DC opportunity for STL Indian market will also see 10G by 2030 from the current 1.5GW.
India’s DC market will provide an added opportunity for STL to extend global relationships to the home market
STL is targeting Rs200bn revenue by FY29 (vs estimate of Rs104bn with margin of 27% (vs estimate of 23%).
STL will be expanding capacity to 1.5x to enable the next growth phase and will invest Rs10bn annually including a new greenfield manufacturing facility in India
Management said business is at a pivotal moment with scale of opportunity enhanced significantly by AI data centers (DC).
AI DC needs are very different from traditional DC, including higher AI density driving multi-fold growth besides interconnection between DCs.
Trap of Retail Investors
If you find yourself in a hole, first thing that you do is STOP DIGGING.
-Buffet
We spent a lot of time to debate if IT sectors or big private sector banks are coming back.
The share price falls and the retail investors keep buying. We don't check the allocation and anchor ourselves to share the price. The concept of allocation does not exist in our mind.
I keep interacting with fellow investors and they keep buying HDFC/Infosys/IEX because they think that these shares are trading at discount.
I have no problem with buying any companies for whatever reasons that they believe.
If someone believes that the business will turn around and share price will go up eventually, fair enough.
But allocation must be on check. My limit is 15% of portfolio on the turn around story.
No matter how much the share price falls off those companies, I won't keep adding. Because allocation will hit the brakes. If you don't like 15%, pick your number.
Importantly, build a system in place. No youtube video will talk about such systems. It will either advocate to buy or convince you to sell.
PS: No buy or sell recommendations on any of these stocks. I have the MFI segment as a turn around bet. AU bank was in this list totalling 14%. No recommendation. This is to illustrate the concept.
If you find yourself in a hole, first thing that you do is STOP DIGGING.
-Buffet
We spent a lot of time to debate if IT sectors or big private sector banks are coming back.
The share price falls and the retail investors keep buying. We don't check the allocation and anchor ourselves to share the price. The concept of allocation does not exist in our mind.
I keep interacting with fellow investors and they keep buying HDFC/Infosys/IEX because they think that these shares are trading at discount.
I have no problem with buying any companies for whatever reasons that they believe.
If someone believes that the business will turn around and share price will go up eventually, fair enough.
But allocation must be on check. My limit is 15% of portfolio on the turn around story.
No matter how much the share price falls off those companies, I won't keep adding. Because allocation will hit the brakes. If you don't like 15%, pick your number.
Importantly, build a system in place. No youtube video will talk about such systems. It will either advocate to buy or convince you to sell.
PS: No buy or sell recommendations on any of these stocks. I have the MFI segment as a turn around bet. AU bank was in this list totalling 14%. No recommendation. This is to illustrate the concept.
Do you have such an allocation framework ?
Anonymous Poll
50%
Yes
22%
No
31%
Don't have but will think
Average Height
This is one a bit long post. You dopamine will try hard to stop you from reading this long post. Try it 😊
The concept of average height is very handy to understand a lot of concepts.
For example,
European average height is higher than the Indian. Similarly, average height of Indian is higher than Chinese.
In India, men has an average height of 5 ft 5 inch.
It doesn't mean that all men are of equal height. Many are average 6 ft while good number of people are on the lower side of 5 ft 2 or 3 inch.
In India, GDP growth data is known to us. That means, some sectors are growing at faster than GDP and some sectors are growing slower than GDP.
For someone is investing through direct equity, instead of Index, he/she must focus on the sector that are growing faster than GDP growth. In growth term, higher than the average is alpha!
If you are focusing too much on the sector that are growing slower than average (GDP), you are designed to underperform with high probability.
If the whole market is growing at 10%, you cannot grow more than 10%. This is what index investors will tell you. Over long periods, it is nearly impossible to beat the index. This is their narrative.
This narrative miss a big point. If you can avoid slow growing or stagnant sector, and move to fast growing sector, place yourself on high growing segment, you will outperform.
If people are moving to stagnant sector, you will underperform.
These two segments together will make average index levels return.
If you think deeply, you will understand that alpha of one segment comes at the cost of someone's underperformance.
Well, this may sound a bit depressing, isn't?
If you think, interview is held for one seat where candidates are more than 10, 20 , even 50 or more. Only one person gets the offer. Rough reality.
If that convince you to invest through index mutual fund or ETF, you have to know one thing.
No index fund beats the index. So, you are designed to underperform the index.
Well, many of the index fund investors will argue that we don't have to buy and sell and pay tax in capital gain.
That is also theoretical, not practical. Index fund investors also suffer from choosing a few index out of many.
And look at the SIP return on index for last five years. You may debate with yourself, FD could have been the better choice. Index fund investor will show that they are cool and volatility does not bother them. This is a fiction.
All the big and successful investors will advice you to do index investing. Truth is...they will never do index investing.
What I am trying to tell you then ?
No option is easy. Fun fact is nobody promised you that earning money is easy!!
Choose your road carefully. All the roads have their own advantages and limitations. No roads full of promises. It comes with its own dark sides.
PS: I have been doing direct equity investing lately. At least for the last two years, I have not put a single penny to mutual funds. My incremental money is moving to direct equity and my portfolio is doing good (alpha). Last two years, my portfolio has moved up more than 25% when the market remained flat. Without any commodity.
I have a framework in place. If my strategy doesn't work over three years timeframe, I will modify the strategy and come back again.
I don't have to worship my strategy. If it doesn't work, I will accept the mistake and move on.
For me, I am curious and love to do research. I enjoyed my journey so far. My alpha is not out of performance. It is the Joy of the journey.
This is one a bit long post. You dopamine will try hard to stop you from reading this long post. Try it 😊
The concept of average height is very handy to understand a lot of concepts.
For example,
European average height is higher than the Indian. Similarly, average height of Indian is higher than Chinese.
In India, men has an average height of 5 ft 5 inch.
It doesn't mean that all men are of equal height. Many are average 6 ft while good number of people are on the lower side of 5 ft 2 or 3 inch.
In India, GDP growth data is known to us. That means, some sectors are growing at faster than GDP and some sectors are growing slower than GDP.
For someone is investing through direct equity, instead of Index, he/she must focus on the sector that are growing faster than GDP growth. In growth term, higher than the average is alpha!
If you are focusing too much on the sector that are growing slower than average (GDP), you are designed to underperform with high probability.
If the whole market is growing at 10%, you cannot grow more than 10%. This is what index investors will tell you. Over long periods, it is nearly impossible to beat the index. This is their narrative.
This narrative miss a big point. If you can avoid slow growing or stagnant sector, and move to fast growing sector, place yourself on high growing segment, you will outperform.
If people are moving to stagnant sector, you will underperform.
These two segments together will make average index levels return.
If you think deeply, you will understand that alpha of one segment comes at the cost of someone's underperformance.
Well, this may sound a bit depressing, isn't?
If you think, interview is held for one seat where candidates are more than 10, 20 , even 50 or more. Only one person gets the offer. Rough reality.
If that convince you to invest through index mutual fund or ETF, you have to know one thing.
No index fund beats the index. So, you are designed to underperform the index.
Well, many of the index fund investors will argue that we don't have to buy and sell and pay tax in capital gain.
That is also theoretical, not practical. Index fund investors also suffer from choosing a few index out of many.
And look at the SIP return on index for last five years. You may debate with yourself, FD could have been the better choice. Index fund investor will show that they are cool and volatility does not bother them. This is a fiction.
All the big and successful investors will advice you to do index investing. Truth is...they will never do index investing.
What I am trying to tell you then ?
No option is easy. Fun fact is nobody promised you that earning money is easy!!
Choose your road carefully. All the roads have their own advantages and limitations. No roads full of promises. It comes with its own dark sides.
PS: I have been doing direct equity investing lately. At least for the last two years, I have not put a single penny to mutual funds. My incremental money is moving to direct equity and my portfolio is doing good (alpha). Last two years, my portfolio has moved up more than 25% when the market remained flat. Without any commodity.
I have a framework in place. If my strategy doesn't work over three years timeframe, I will modify the strategy and come back again.
I don't have to worship my strategy. If it doesn't work, I will accept the mistake and move on.
For me, I am curious and love to do research. I enjoyed my journey so far. My alpha is not out of performance. It is the Joy of the journey.
❤7
Passive cost
Cold drink contains heavy and harmful metal, it is known to all. From time to time , there will be protest and things will later normalise. This is known fact.
For a research study, let's say, you are asked to drink a glass of water with some arsenic and heavy metal. You won't agree.
Heavy metal consumption through cold drink is a passive consumption while water with heavy metal is an active consumption.
What is the point?
Well, we don't have issues with passive consumption but have a very high resistance against active consumption.
Cost in mutual fund is a passive cost while improving your skill through buying book and courses are active costs.
A person with 10L equity portfolio will be paying 5k every year. Just think , continuous SIP and market upside can automatically gives a passive revenue streams to AMC companies.
If you are bullish in Indian equity, you must take some time to understand this fact.
Most people will continue doing SIP and increase their fund size. They are okay with 0.50% expenses ratio. Because it is a passive cost.
AMC is a great business model and easy to track. Just check Annual AUM growth of six to seven listed companies. You will see a strange pattern. Bigger AMC grows faster than market growth rate.
You can do valuation (PEG) in three years forward earning basis. This is a super easy to track industry.
Cold drink contains heavy and harmful metal, it is known to all. From time to time , there will be protest and things will later normalise. This is known fact.
For a research study, let's say, you are asked to drink a glass of water with some arsenic and heavy metal. You won't agree.
Heavy metal consumption through cold drink is a passive consumption while water with heavy metal is an active consumption.
What is the point?
Well, we don't have issues with passive consumption but have a very high resistance against active consumption.
Cost in mutual fund is a passive cost while improving your skill through buying book and courses are active costs.
A person with 10L equity portfolio will be paying 5k every year. Just think , continuous SIP and market upside can automatically gives a passive revenue streams to AMC companies.
If you are bullish in Indian equity, you must take some time to understand this fact.
Most people will continue doing SIP and increase their fund size. They are okay with 0.50% expenses ratio. Because it is a passive cost.
AMC is a great business model and easy to track. Just check Annual AUM growth of six to seven listed companies. You will see a strange pattern. Bigger AMC grows faster than market growth rate.
You can do valuation (PEG) in three years forward earning basis. This is a super easy to track industry.
👍2❤1
History shapes Us
These days, people are showing less interest in the equity market.
If another or two years or more lull period gives no return, more people will go out of the market.
This is a classic recency bias.
The data of last twenty years the data won't bother if two years market stays flat.
Remember, we and the market will all eventually go upwards. And this is the truth. The question is ... are you willing to stay put ?
My money flow to equity has increased quite a lot. And I am quite comfortable no matter what happens in the next 2-3 years.
These days, people are showing less interest in the equity market.
If another or two years or more lull period gives no return, more people will go out of the market.
This is a classic recency bias.
The data of last twenty years the data won't bother if two years market stays flat.
Remember, we and the market will all eventually go upwards. And this is the truth. The question is ... are you willing to stay put ?
My money flow to equity has increased quite a lot. And I am quite comfortable no matter what happens in the next 2-3 years.
👍2
MDR is ONN!
Quick Summary.
Most everyday transactions are still FREE: If you are sending money to a friend (P2P), buying something under Rs 2,000, or are a small neighborhood shop keeper (making up to Rs 1 Lakh/month through UPI QR), you will still pay 0% MDR. Nothing changes for regular consumers.
Who actually pays the fee?
Large transactions above Rs 2,000 will have a fee of 0.4% (capped at a maximum of Rs 300).
Certain big sectors like railways, telecom, insurance, fuel, and farming supplies will pay a flat Rs 5 per transaction for anything over Rs 2,000.
Stock markets and mutual funds get a very low fee of 0.02% (also capped at Rs 300).
What this means for Paytm and Pine Labs: Because these companies process UPI payments for merchants, they will now reliably make money on these larger transactions. Instead of relying on government subsidies or hoping for yearly financial aid, they now have a permanent, growing business model.
Quick Summary.
Most everyday transactions are still FREE: If you are sending money to a friend (P2P), buying something under Rs 2,000, or are a small neighborhood shop keeper (making up to Rs 1 Lakh/month through UPI QR), you will still pay 0% MDR. Nothing changes for regular consumers.
Who actually pays the fee?
Large transactions above Rs 2,000 will have a fee of 0.4% (capped at a maximum of Rs 300).
Certain big sectors like railways, telecom, insurance, fuel, and farming supplies will pay a flat Rs 5 per transaction for anything over Rs 2,000.
Stock markets and mutual funds get a very low fee of 0.02% (also capped at Rs 300).
What this means for Paytm and Pine Labs: Because these companies process UPI payments for merchants, they will now reliably make money on these larger transactions. Instead of relying on government subsidies or hoping for yearly financial aid, they now have a permanent, growing business model.