Bobcaps_Initiating_Coverage_on_Bajaj_Finance_with_29%_UPSIDE_From.pdf
1.1 MB
Insightful report on development of Bajaj Finance. When you read these type of reports, ignore the target price. Focus on the data and facts.
Promoters Buying
1. Minda Corporation
2. Lincoln Pharma
3. Adani Power
4. Gateway Distripark
1. Minda Corporation
2. Lincoln Pharma
3. Adani Power
4. Gateway Distripark
Small Cap 100 Index
We have had a steep runup since March with the 6th continuous month of serious gains. The trigger that caused this runup was probably:
1. Cheap Russian crude
2. Strong Rupee
3. Easing inflation and
4. Relatively benign macro.
Some of it at least might be changing just as we near crucial resistance in the smallcap indices - usd-inr breaching 83 (not a big problem of a runaway decline since we have good reserves and can defend), crude breaching 90 and russia crude imports declining in Aug, as Russia has cut production. So most of what to me were good positives when the market seemed to be bottoming last week of March are now reversing and that too right post a frenzied runup in everything.
Credit: Bull therapy, valuepickr
We have had a steep runup since March with the 6th continuous month of serious gains. The trigger that caused this runup was probably:
1. Cheap Russian crude
2. Strong Rupee
3. Easing inflation and
4. Relatively benign macro.
Some of it at least might be changing just as we near crucial resistance in the smallcap indices - usd-inr breaching 83 (not a big problem of a runaway decline since we have good reserves and can defend), crude breaching 90 and russia crude imports declining in Aug, as Russia has cut production. So most of what to me were good positives when the market seemed to be bottoming last week of March are now reversing and that too right post a frenzied runup in everything.
Credit: Bull therapy, valuepickr
Promoters Buying
Greenpanel industries
Lincoln Pharma
Max India
NRB Industrial Bearing
If you remember, the name of Lincoln Pharma appeared in the last post also.
Greenpanel industries
Lincoln Pharma
Max India
NRB Industrial Bearing
If you remember, the name of Lincoln Pharma appeared in the last post also.
Shooting the stars
Even though the profit of HDFC bank has been as per expectation, the share price has remained stagnant.
It sometimes gives an opportunity to load up and make returns with minimum risk. This type of statement is very common and many are talking about it.
I found something interesting in the small cap mutual fund category. As we have seen, the small cap universe is on uptake for the last couple of months. Obviously, the downturn will come some day. And it will be brutal that time because the small cap index will go down by 40-60%. To make the market beating return in this space, you have to do one of these:
1. Time the market
2. Play safely with mutual funds.
As the first point is impossible to get right, the second point comes to the rescue. You will wonder why. Continue reading please.
In smallcap index level, all are small cap companies. However, in a small cap mutual fund, it's not all small cap companies. 20-30% can be large cap companies.
Example: Nippon India small cap (30%), SBI small cap (25%), Axis small cap (30%).
When the selling happens, due to liquidity issues, fund managers can't sell large volumes of small cap companies. In this bad time, 20-30% large cap companies give oxygen to the fund managers because selling in high volumes for these companies is no tough job.
If you are reading attentively, you may get this question in your mind. Well, because of this 20-30% of large companies in small cap companies, the return will not lag the index!?
Answer is No.
Because you can play safe and can play value bets in large cap companies inside your small cap mutual fund portfolio. For example, HDFC Bank appears as top holding in Quant Smallcap fund and Nippon India small cap fund.
Fund managers are tactfully increasing the oxygen in the portfolio while maintaining the value bets. SBI small cap fund is playing the same game in a slightly different route. Guess the largest holding of SBI small cap fund.
It's Nifty 50. Allocation 6.5%.
On the other hand, the small cap offering from Kotak, Axis or ICICI directly do not own the large position in large cap companies inside their portfolio, they are loaded in the midcap segment. (Which is more risky than the large cap). Obviously, when the drawdown will happen, it won't take hard time to figure out why one will sink deep.
Important lesson: When everyone is measuring upside, those who tackle the downside better will stand taller.
Even though the profit of HDFC bank has been as per expectation, the share price has remained stagnant.
It sometimes gives an opportunity to load up and make returns with minimum risk. This type of statement is very common and many are talking about it.
I found something interesting in the small cap mutual fund category. As we have seen, the small cap universe is on uptake for the last couple of months. Obviously, the downturn will come some day. And it will be brutal that time because the small cap index will go down by 40-60%. To make the market beating return in this space, you have to do one of these:
1. Time the market
2. Play safely with mutual funds.
As the first point is impossible to get right, the second point comes to the rescue. You will wonder why. Continue reading please.
In smallcap index level, all are small cap companies. However, in a small cap mutual fund, it's not all small cap companies. 20-30% can be large cap companies.
Example: Nippon India small cap (30%), SBI small cap (25%), Axis small cap (30%).
When the selling happens, due to liquidity issues, fund managers can't sell large volumes of small cap companies. In this bad time, 20-30% large cap companies give oxygen to the fund managers because selling in high volumes for these companies is no tough job.
If you are reading attentively, you may get this question in your mind. Well, because of this 20-30% of large companies in small cap companies, the return will not lag the index!?
Answer is No.
Because you can play safe and can play value bets in large cap companies inside your small cap mutual fund portfolio. For example, HDFC Bank appears as top holding in Quant Smallcap fund and Nippon India small cap fund.
Fund managers are tactfully increasing the oxygen in the portfolio while maintaining the value bets. SBI small cap fund is playing the same game in a slightly different route. Guess the largest holding of SBI small cap fund.
It's Nifty 50. Allocation 6.5%.
On the other hand, the small cap offering from Kotak, Axis or ICICI directly do not own the large position in large cap companies inside their portfolio, they are loaded in the midcap segment. (Which is more risky than the large cap). Obviously, when the drawdown will happen, it won't take hard time to figure out why one will sink deep.
Important lesson: When everyone is measuring upside, those who tackle the downside better will stand taller.
Asian Paints - Ad Campaign
I grouped with colleagues on Sunday and finally ended up in the theatre to watch the Jawan movie. 😯
I don't know if anyone has watched the movie in this group. I remember seeing the ad of Asian Paints repeatedly. It was not something played during the ad break. In the movie scenes, like the road banner, the magazine kept on tables, etc., Asian Paints were all over the place!
I grouped with colleagues on Sunday and finally ended up in the theatre to watch the Jawan movie. 😯
I don't know if anyone has watched the movie in this group. I remember seeing the ad of Asian Paints repeatedly. It was not something played during the ad break. In the movie scenes, like the road banner, the magazine kept on tables, etc., Asian Paints were all over the place!
GMM Pfuadler
Earning has fired, price remained at the same level.
Results: PE has come at 10 years average. Recent rally in small cap has pushed the stock price upwards. Concall was interesting. Company will reach their revenue and profit guidance before time. Now, after long sleep, stock looks attractive once again.
Observation: Brokers are not interested. Street has given up.
Disclaimer: No position.
Earning has fired, price remained at the same level.
Results: PE has come at 10 years average. Recent rally in small cap has pushed the stock price upwards. Concall was interesting. Company will reach their revenue and profit guidance before time. Now, after long sleep, stock looks attractive once again.
Observation: Brokers are not interested. Street has given up.
Disclaimer: No position.
Sugar in a sweet spot. The industry has been transforming and can become a structural play. Those who are not aware, a good report to read...
Promoters' buying
A retail investor must pay attention towards promoters' buying. Remember, promoters may sell for different reasons but buy for only and only one reason.
"They see upside"
If you observe carefully, promoters' holding of Galaxy Bearing has been increasing consistently. And for NRB bearing, promoters are buying in small quantities. Recently, in NRB Bearing, promoters have bought.
SOM Distillery, promoters are buying extremely aggressively. Last week also, some activities were noticed.
Also, this information carries almost no value to fund managers because they deal with bigger chunk of money. And they won't come to the TV channel and talk highly about promoters Buying. Retail investors have an edge that they should realise and act accordingly.
Disclosure: A very small position on SOM Distillery some times back. Could not increase the position for some reasons. No position in the other two businesses. No advice or recommendations please.
A retail investor must pay attention towards promoters' buying. Remember, promoters may sell for different reasons but buy for only and only one reason.
"They see upside"
If you observe carefully, promoters' holding of Galaxy Bearing has been increasing consistently. And for NRB bearing, promoters are buying in small quantities. Recently, in NRB Bearing, promoters have bought.
SOM Distillery, promoters are buying extremely aggressively. Last week also, some activities were noticed.
Also, this information carries almost no value to fund managers because they deal with bigger chunk of money. And they won't come to the TV channel and talk highly about promoters Buying. Retail investors have an edge that they should realise and act accordingly.
Disclosure: A very small position on SOM Distillery some times back. Could not increase the position for some reasons. No position in the other two businesses. No advice or recommendations please.