*Market kya lagta hain@ 7.30am – Tuesday, March 21st 2023*
*SGX Nifty (+47, 17072)*
# This morning, cautious optimism seen backing the benchmark Nifty!
The positive bias is on backdrop of the US banking concerns which are seen subsiding.
# UBS stock was up 1.26% in Monday's trade, which is at least a positive sign of the market's acceptance.
# Well, if overnight positive action at Wall Street is any indication then the takeover of Credit Suisse by its rival UBS is seen as a positive development and most importantly, soothing investor concerns over the health of the global banking sector.
# Now with Credit Suisse buyout behind it, market focuses on Wednesday’s FOMC decision where 25 basis points hike is quite likely.
*Before we get into detail, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:*
# *Nifty (16988):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 16757. Targets 17221/17450. Aggressive targets at 17600-17750 zone.
# *Bank Nifty (39362):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 38429. Targets 39751/40000. Aggressive targets at 40500-40750 zone.
# The *Nifty options data* suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 17000-17800 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 17200 followed by 17800 strike price. So, the 17800 mark will be Nifty’s crucial resistance zone. Maximum Put open interest stands at 16900 levels followed by 17000 levels. Call writing was seen at 17200 and then at 16900 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 16900 and then at 16800 strike prices.
# The *Volatility index* is hovering at 16 level.
# The biggest headwind for our stock markets is the relentless selling by the FIIs camp.
*In yesterday’s trade, FIIs sold shares worth Rupees 2546 crores*
# Probably, the big FIIs camp are waiting to see when the dust will settle on the banking saga.
# *The biggest-three-positive catalysts for benchmark Nifty:*
1. Fed dovish Fed expectations.
2. WTI Oil sluggish at $68 a barrel.
3. Oversold technical conditions.
# *Technically,* confirmation of strength only above Nifty’s 200- DMA at 17455 mark. Immediate hurdles at 17221 mark.
*The biggest support for the day seen at 16827 mark.*
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.
*SGX Nifty (+47, 17072)*
# This morning, cautious optimism seen backing the benchmark Nifty!
The positive bias is on backdrop of the US banking concerns which are seen subsiding.
# UBS stock was up 1.26% in Monday's trade, which is at least a positive sign of the market's acceptance.
# Well, if overnight positive action at Wall Street is any indication then the takeover of Credit Suisse by its rival UBS is seen as a positive development and most importantly, soothing investor concerns over the health of the global banking sector.
# Now with Credit Suisse buyout behind it, market focuses on Wednesday’s FOMC decision where 25 basis points hike is quite likely.
*Before we get into detail, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:*
# *Nifty (16988):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 16757. Targets 17221/17450. Aggressive targets at 17600-17750 zone.
# *Bank Nifty (39362):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 38429. Targets 39751/40000. Aggressive targets at 40500-40750 zone.
# The *Nifty options data* suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 17000-17800 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 17200 followed by 17800 strike price. So, the 17800 mark will be Nifty’s crucial resistance zone. Maximum Put open interest stands at 16900 levels followed by 17000 levels. Call writing was seen at 17200 and then at 16900 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 16900 and then at 16800 strike prices.
# The *Volatility index* is hovering at 16 level.
# The biggest headwind for our stock markets is the relentless selling by the FIIs camp.
*In yesterday’s trade, FIIs sold shares worth Rupees 2546 crores*
# Probably, the big FIIs camp are waiting to see when the dust will settle on the banking saga.
# *The biggest-three-positive catalysts for benchmark Nifty:*
1. Fed dovish Fed expectations.
2. WTI Oil sluggish at $68 a barrel.
3. Oversold technical conditions.
# *Technically,* confirmation of strength only above Nifty’s 200- DMA at 17455 mark. Immediate hurdles at 17221 mark.
*The biggest support for the day seen at 16827 mark.*
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.
*Economic Calendar, Tuesday, March 21st 2023*
🇪🇺 *Euro*: German Car Registration (YoY) (Feb), German Car Registration (MoM) (Feb), German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar), ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar), Construction Output (MoM) (Jan), ECB President Lagarde Speaks
🇬🇧 *Great Britain* : Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Feb), Public Sector Net Borrowing (Feb), Car Registration (YoY) (Feb), Car Registration (MoM) (Feb)
🇺🇸 *USA* : Redbook (YoY), Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb), 52-Week Bill Auction, 20-Year Bond Auction
🇪🇺 *Euro*: German Car Registration (YoY) (Feb), German Car Registration (MoM) (Feb), German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar), ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar), Construction Output (MoM) (Jan), ECB President Lagarde Speaks
🇬🇧 *Great Britain* : Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Feb), Public Sector Net Borrowing (Feb), Car Registration (YoY) (Feb), Car Registration (MoM) (Feb)
🇺🇸 *USA* : Redbook (YoY), Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb), 52-Week Bill Auction, 20-Year Bond Auction
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*Derivative Calculus @ 8am - Tuesday, March 21st 2023*
*INDEX Derivatives*
*Previous FUTURE Closing to SPOT*
# NIFTY on 20.03.23 @ +49
# NIFTY on 17.03.23 @ +89
*OI PCR*
# NIFTY – 0.96
# BNF – 0.88
*Vol PCR*
# NIFTY – 0.89
# BNF – 0.81
*MAX CE OI*
# NIFTY – 18000, 17500
# BNF – 41000
*SHORT Buildup*
# NIFTY – 16900-17200.
MAX PE OI
# NIFTY – 16500, 16000
# BNF – 39000
*LONG Buildup*
16000-17000
*STOCK Derivatives:*
*Long Buildup*: # BPCL # ITC # NAVINFLUOR.
*Long Unwinding:* # TATASTEEL # M&MFIN # SAIL # TATAPOWER
*Short Buildup:* # SBIN # JINDALSTEL # INDIACEM # SBIN
*Short Covering:* # ABFRL # HUL # PIDILITEIND # LTIM
*Stocks banned in F&O segment*: BIOCON, IBULHSGFIN
*New in Ban* BIOCON
*Out of Ban*: GNFC.
*March, 20th 2023 FII/DII:*
FII : -₹ 2545.87 Cr.
DII: +₹ 2876.64 Cr
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Returns mentioned herein are in no way a guarantee or promise of future returns. Stock market investments are subject to market risks.
*INDEX Derivatives*
*Previous FUTURE Closing to SPOT*
# NIFTY on 20.03.23 @ +49
# NIFTY on 17.03.23 @ +89
*OI PCR*
# NIFTY – 0.96
# BNF – 0.88
*Vol PCR*
# NIFTY – 0.89
# BNF – 0.81
*MAX CE OI*
# NIFTY – 18000, 17500
# BNF – 41000
*SHORT Buildup*
# NIFTY – 16900-17200.
MAX PE OI
# NIFTY – 16500, 16000
# BNF – 39000
*LONG Buildup*
16000-17000
*STOCK Derivatives:*
*Long Buildup*: # BPCL # ITC # NAVINFLUOR.
*Long Unwinding:* # TATASTEEL # M&MFIN # SAIL # TATAPOWER
*Short Buildup:* # SBIN # JINDALSTEL # INDIACEM # SBIN
*Short Covering:* # ABFRL # HUL # PIDILITEIND # LTIM
*Stocks banned in F&O segment*: BIOCON, IBULHSGFIN
*New in Ban* BIOCON
*Out of Ban*: GNFC.
*March, 20th 2023 FII/DII:*
FII : -₹ 2545.87 Cr.
DII: +₹ 2876.64 Cr
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Returns mentioned herein are in no way a guarantee or promise of future returns. Stock market investments are subject to market risks.
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*Morning Action @ 7am – Wednesday, March 22nd 2023*
*Overnight, Wall Street ends higher for a second straight day ahead of today's highly anticipated Fed decision.*
*7am GLOBAL UPDATE:*
# SGX Nifty (+19, 17163)
# Dow Future (-17, 32544)
# Nikkei (+444, 27390)
# Hang Seng (+170, 19428)
# Dow (+316, 32561)
# Nasdaq (+185, 11860)
# Bovespa (+75, 100998).
*WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN YESTERDAY’S TRADE:*
# Overnight, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% to 11,860, the S&P 500 added 1.3% to 4,002, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% to 32,560.
# *The positive catalysts:*
1) Janet Yellen has said that the US government is working to ensure that deposits are insured at banks if more problems arise.
2) First Republic Bank shares were up 29% in overnight trade on reports that the JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is leading discussions with other bank chiefs about a rescue plan for the bank.
Strictly speaking, Wall Street has calmed down and also ripped higher since the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by its compatriot UBS.
# Investors kept a cautious eye trained on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, which kicked off Tuesday and will conclude on Wednesday with a policy decision.
# *WTI crude futures* zooms higher at $69.40 a barrel as stability seen returning to financial markets.
# *Bitcoin* was seen consolidating at 28210 levels.
# *COMEX Gold futures* trades firm at $1943.
# *The US Dollar index* consolidates at 103.23 levels.
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.
*Overnight, Wall Street ends higher for a second straight day ahead of today's highly anticipated Fed decision.*
Chances for a 50 basis point (0.50%) rate hike has gone out the window after the recent bank closures, with Fed funds futures currently pricing in an 86.4% probability of a 0.25% rate increase.
*7am GLOBAL UPDATE:*
# SGX Nifty (+19, 17163)
# Dow Future (-17, 32544)
# Nikkei (+444, 27390)
# Hang Seng (+170, 19428)
# Dow (+316, 32561)
# Nasdaq (+185, 11860)
# Bovespa (+75, 100998).
*WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN YESTERDAY’S TRADE:*
# Overnight, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% to 11,860, the S&P 500 added 1.3% to 4,002, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% to 32,560.
# *The positive catalysts:*
1) Janet Yellen has said that the US government is working to ensure that deposits are insured at banks if more problems arise.
2) First Republic Bank shares were up 29% in overnight trade on reports that the JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is leading discussions with other bank chiefs about a rescue plan for the bank.
Strictly speaking, Wall Street has calmed down and also ripped higher since the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by its compatriot UBS.
# Investors kept a cautious eye trained on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, which kicked off Tuesday and will conclude on Wednesday with a policy decision.
# *WTI crude futures* zooms higher at $69.40 a barrel as stability seen returning to financial markets.
# *Bitcoin* was seen consolidating at 28210 levels.
# *COMEX Gold futures* trades firm at $1943.
# *The US Dollar index* consolidates at 103.23 levels.
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.
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*Market kya lagta hain@ 7.30am – Wednesday, March 22nd 2023*
*SGX Nifty (+9, 17153)*
The positive takeaway from yesterday’s trade was that Nifty rebounded and ended on a firm note as street cheered positive global cues on backdrop of constructive global banking sector development.
# *Reliance (RIL) was star outperformer in yesterday’s trade - as bargain hunting propelled the stock 3% higher. Reliance contributed nearly half of Nifty 50 gains.*
*Now, before we get into detail, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:*
# *Nifty (17108):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 16801. Targets 17221/17450. Aggressive targets at 17600-17750 zone.
# *Bank Nifty (39895):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 39121. Targets 40100/40743. Aggressive targets at 41251-41500 zone.
*Up Next is Federal Reserve’s policy decision to trickle on Wednesday, March 22 at 11:30 PM IST.*
The street widely expects Chairman Jerome Powell to lift the key rate by another 25 basis points to the range of 4.75-5% but there are too many uncertainties surrounding Fed's policy outlook after the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis.
# Investors will spy with one big eye on Powell’s statement on:
1) Inflation
2) Recession
3) Banking contagion
# *Technically*, confirmation of strength only above Nifty’s 200- DMA at 17456 mark. Nifty’s technical landscape is still suggesting a rebound play amidst oversold conditions with interweek support at 16827 mark. Intraday support at 17017 mark.
# Meanwhile, the biggest headwind for our stock markets is the relentless selling by the FIIS camp despite the three-big positive catalysts:
1. Fed dovish Fed expectations.
2. WTI Oil sluggish at $68 a barrel.
3. Oversold technical conditions.
# The *Nifty options data* suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 17000-17800 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 17800 followed by 17200 strike price. So, the 17800 mark will be Nifty’s crucial resistance zone. Maximum Put open interest stands at 17000 levels followed by 16900 levels. Call writing was seen at 17800 and then at 17600 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 17000 and then at 17100 strike prices.
# The *Volatility index* is hovering at 15.08 level.
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.
*SGX Nifty (+9, 17153)*
The positive takeaway from yesterday’s trade was that Nifty rebounded and ended on a firm note as street cheered positive global cues on backdrop of constructive global banking sector development.
# *Reliance (RIL) was star outperformer in yesterday’s trade - as bargain hunting propelled the stock 3% higher. Reliance contributed nearly half of Nifty 50 gains.*
*Now, before we get into detail, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:*
# *Nifty (17108):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 16801. Targets 17221/17450. Aggressive targets at 17600-17750 zone.
# *Bank Nifty (39895):* Buy at CMP. Stop at 39121. Targets 40100/40743. Aggressive targets at 41251-41500 zone.
*Up Next is Federal Reserve’s policy decision to trickle on Wednesday, March 22 at 11:30 PM IST.*
The street widely expects Chairman Jerome Powell to lift the key rate by another 25 basis points to the range of 4.75-5% but there are too many uncertainties surrounding Fed's policy outlook after the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis.
# Investors will spy with one big eye on Powell’s statement on:
1) Inflation
2) Recession
3) Banking contagion
# *Technically*, confirmation of strength only above Nifty’s 200- DMA at 17456 mark. Nifty’s technical landscape is still suggesting a rebound play amidst oversold conditions with interweek support at 16827 mark. Intraday support at 17017 mark.
# Meanwhile, the biggest headwind for our stock markets is the relentless selling by the FIIS camp despite the three-big positive catalysts:
1. Fed dovish Fed expectations.
2. WTI Oil sluggish at $68 a barrel.
3. Oversold technical conditions.
# The *Nifty options data* suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 17000-17800 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 17800 followed by 17200 strike price. So, the 17800 mark will be Nifty’s crucial resistance zone. Maximum Put open interest stands at 17000 levels followed by 16900 levels. Call writing was seen at 17800 and then at 17600 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 17000 and then at 17100 strike prices.
# The *Volatility index* is hovering at 15.08 level.
*Disclaimer:* This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.
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*Economic Calendar, Wednesday, March 22nd 2023*
🇬🇧 *Great Britain* : Core CPI (YoY) (Feb), Core CPI MoM (MoM) (Feb), Core RPI (YoY) (Feb), CPI (MoM) (Feb), CPI, n.s.a (Feb), Core RPI (MoM) (Feb), CPI (YoY) (Feb), RPI (MoM) (Feb), PPI Output (MoM) (Feb), PPI Output (YoY) (Feb), PPI Input (MoM) (Feb), PPI Input (YoY) (Feb), Core PPI Output (YoY) (Feb), Core PPI Output (MoM) (Feb), RPI (YoY) (Feb), 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
🇪🇺 *Euro* : ECB President Lagarde Speaks, Current Account (Jan), Current Account n.s.a. (Jan), German 10-Year Bund Auction
🇺🇸 *USA* : Mortgage Refinance Index, Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW), MBA Purchase Index, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, Distillate Fuel Production, Gasoline Production, Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW), Gasoline Inventories, Crude Oil Imports, EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW), Heating Oil Stockpiles. EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q1), Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q1), Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q1), Interest Rate Projection - Current (Q1), FOMC Economic Projections
🇬🇧 *Great Britain* : Core CPI (YoY) (Feb), Core CPI MoM (MoM) (Feb), Core RPI (YoY) (Feb), CPI (MoM) (Feb), CPI, n.s.a (Feb), Core RPI (MoM) (Feb), CPI (YoY) (Feb), RPI (MoM) (Feb), PPI Output (MoM) (Feb), PPI Output (YoY) (Feb), PPI Input (MoM) (Feb), PPI Input (YoY) (Feb), Core PPI Output (YoY) (Feb), Core PPI Output (MoM) (Feb), RPI (YoY) (Feb), 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
🇪🇺 *Euro* : ECB President Lagarde Speaks, Current Account (Jan), Current Account n.s.a. (Jan), German 10-Year Bund Auction
🇺🇸 *USA* : Mortgage Refinance Index, Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW), MBA Purchase Index, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, Distillate Fuel Production, Gasoline Production, Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW), Gasoline Inventories, Crude Oil Imports, EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW), Heating Oil Stockpiles. EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q1), Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q1), Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q1), Interest Rate Projection - Current (Q1), FOMC Economic Projections
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China & Russia war UPDATE news can happens soon in coming days!
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