🇨🇳🇮🇳 China vs India – how do two countries try to outplay each other in the Indo-Pacific?
Part 1 - Necklace of Diamonds

The bilateral relations between China and India have witnessed a significant deterioration in recent times, marking a troubling phase in their long-standing history. Several factors, including territorial disputes and economic confrontation, have contributed to this worsening dynamic, leading to heightened tensions and strained diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants.

So, in order to outplay one another politically and economically China and India have two different strategies, aimed at encircling the region. In this post we touch upon Indian program called “Necklace of Diamonds”.

🔻 What is it?

The “Necklace of Diamonds” strategy is a phrase first used by India’s former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh in August 2011. He used the term to refer to India’s efforts to protect its interests, in response to China’s String of Pearls Strategy, which will be discussed in the next post.

It involves putting in place a competitive network of alliances – with military, security and economic angles.

🔻 What are the key destinations?

The key countries, that India engages with, are shown on the map. Those include Iran, Mongolia, Indonesia etc. With every depicted state India has joint projects, agreements or just diplomatically engages with them in one form or another. However, bigger portion of attention is focused on infrastructure – similarly to China.

🔻 The main projects are:

🇸🇬 Changi Naval Base in Singapore. With agreement with Singapore in 2018 India secured the Indian Navy presence at the base. This allows the naval vessels to avail logistical support such as refueling and replenishing supplies.

🇮🇩 Sabang Port in Indonesia. In 2018 India got the military access to the port which is located right at the entrance of Malacca Strait. However, progress on building the port has been slow and talks have been on for some years now, so right now there are no results.

🇴🇲 Duqm Port in Oman. This port is located between Pakistan and Djibouti, where two important strategic Chinese facilities are situated. It connects Asia to Africa and Europe. Despite the fact that India gained access to the port, Oman currently is one of the main Chinese investment destinations, so it is very hard for New Delhi to compete with Beijing.

🇮🇷 Chabahar Port in Iran. India has served as the primary investor in Chabahar port, as New Delhi sees the port as a way to access Afghan and Central Asian markets without relying on Pakistan’s land routes. At the same time, China has been growing increasingly influential in Iran, seeking to gain access to critical natural resources and shipping routes.

🔻 What's in the future?

Despite some success, overall Indian strategy was not implemented in an effective manner. And there are several reasons for this.

1️⃣ China is increasing its economic influence all over the world, including countries, which are a part of Necklace of Diamonds. It is very hard to compete with Chinese money.

2️⃣ Lack of vision. The “Necklace of Diamonds” Strategy is not an officially promulgated strategy, but rather a phrase used to interpret certain government policies by commentators. This, in my opinion, does have a negative impact on the results of this project.

3️⃣ Lack of investment. China’s investments in its String of Pearls exceed the investments made by India for its Necklace of Diamonds. Hence China’s allies are likely to be stronger than India’s.

In case India does solve the issues above, the strategy may have some more positive results. However, with China engaging countries in its long-term development strategies, like BRI, New Delhi will still face critical difficulties.

#China #India

@asianomics

🌎 🔨LatAm in the world's race for lithium: Part 2. Production

🔻Producers

🇦🇺 Australia leads in lithium production by a wide margin, having produced 61,000 tons last year. Australia's lithium production is expected to grow at a rate of 14.2 percent and reach 116,240 tons in 2026 as mines expand. Most of the country’s lithium supply is exported to China as spodumene.

🇨🇱 Chile, the world's second largest lithium producer (39,000 tons per year), focuses not so much on the domestic processing of lithium, but rather on exporting raw materials to, primarily, South Korea, Japan, China and the EU. The recent increase in exports from Chile has predominantly been associated with lithium carbonates, which are relatively unrefined.

🇨🇳 China comes in third, producing 19,000 tons per year. While production in China is comparatively low, China imports lithium in large quantities and dominates lithium refining and battery production.

🔻China's interest

China's rapid increase in the manufacturing of goods and components means that its demand for lithium is growing at 10% a year. China has over half of the world's lithium refining capacity but has to rely on imports for about two-thirds of the raw material.

Chinese companies are now increasing their investments in the "lithium triangle." China’s Ganfeng Lithium, for example, is the majority stakeholder in Argentina’s Caucharí-Olaroz operation.

Similarly, in Chile, China’s Tianqi Lithium became the second-largest shareholder in SQM, holding 23.8 percent of shares. The Chinese companies Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium now represent two of the top three lithium mining companies in the world.

🔻EU investments

The EU has consistently shown interest in South American lithium. In January, Scholz toured Latin America, and lithium mining was not the last thing on the agenda. At the EU-CELAC summit, EU countries announced €45bn ($49,5bn) in investments in the region, some of which are aimed at resource extraction under the guise of green initiatives.

🔻Rare earth elements industry

The US and China have split roles in the rare earth elements (REE) market and have maintained them, at least until recently. China has been developing its own resources and buying cheap raw materials from other countries, Latin America included. China has taken a large share of the REE processing market and has established production of batteries and components needed for green industries, but has not fully engaged in high-tech manufacturing.

The US and other developed countries have taken over the production of the final high-tech products of the green industry. At the same time, the US did not prevent China from increasing its presence in Latin American countries and buying cheap raw materials, as it was beneficial to both countries.

Now the REE market is changing. The US and the EU are interested in negotiating cheap raw material supplies and investing in processing facilities in Latin America, not only to reduce dependence on China but also to get their share of profits.

China is trying to develop its own high-tech manufacturing. In many areas, China will have to start from scratch because developed countries are reluctant to share the technology.

🔻"Lithium triangle" role

In this context, the "lithium triangle" countries don't care who they sell their lithium to: China, the US or the EU. Argentina, Chile and Bolivia are trying to capitalize on the growth of the lithium industry and develop domestic industrial infrastructure. However, these countries will not be able to see the same profits as the developed countries that produce the final high-tech product.

At the same time, by allowing investors into their markets, these countries give up some control. It will be easier for investors to promote their interests and dictate their terms when countries such as Bolivia, Chile and Argentina depend on resource extraction for a significant part of their budget.

🔻🔻🔻
Part 1

#analysis #LatAm #lithium #resources #Chile #Argentina #Bolivia #US #China

☠️ Blood Meridian

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🚀 On Deliveries of ATACMS Systems to Kiev⚡️

🗓 In October, the #Pentagon plans to transfer up to 30 MGM-140 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, tactical ballistic missiles manufactured by the US defence company Lockheed Martin, which also produces the M142 HIMARS MLRS. It is not so much the fact of the planned transfer that is important, it is a matter of time. What is important is that the BBC was the first to publish information about it, and it was after the AFU had struck the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in #Sevastopol. As if this is aimed specifically at us.

❗️ATACMS Systems have a range of up to 190 miles (300 kilometres). Information about the US readiness to supply this type of missiles to #Ukraine appeared in the network at the same time as the data on the planned transfer of the first batch of 45 Taurus missiles by #Germany to Kiev in October. The second batch of 50 Taurus missiles will be delivered to the AFU by 10 November. Apparently, the #Pentagon hurriedly made a decision to send a limited batch of ATACMS to #Ukraine in contrast to the announced intentions of the German side. The same applies to the issue of delivery of American Abrams tanks, which according to the official statements of the #US side are already parked in the #Polish city of Rzeszów, and the railway train is expected to be dispatched this night.

📌 It is believed that Joe Biden's administration is currently discussing the reduction of arms deliveries to Kiev due to the expected aggravation of the situation in the #Taiwan area. The political establishment in Washington is already openly talking about the possibility of an armed conflict against #China in the South China Sea. The #US might have delayed deliveries, but, apparently, it cannot cede the palm of superiority to #Berlin.

📜 MultiXAM; 23 Sep 2023,19:30

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🇦🇷🗳💵 What's in store for Argentina?

The victory of libertarian Javier Milei in the presidential election has left no one in Argentina indifferent. While some are crying over Sergio Massa's speech admitting his defeat, others are jumping in the streets shouting "Liberty, liberty!"

Milei, a self-described 'anarcho-capitalist,' plans to get rid of the central bank and the national currency in favor of the U.S. dollar and eliminate some of the ministries. He also plans to cut government spending.

🔻Milei opposes cooperation with China, Brazil and Russia, favoring the United States. And his future office has already spoken out against Argentina joining BRICS in 2024. That said, it is unclear how Milei plans to deal with IMF debts without China's help: in recent months, Economy Minister (and Milei's rival) Sergio Massa has been heavily relying on the yuan to pay off IMF debts.

Relations with Brazil are about to become tense: President Lula da Silva said the elections were democratic and wished the "new government good luck," but he did not call Milei by name or congratulate him personally. The fact that Milei openly supports former President Jair Bolsonaro will hinder cooperation.

🔻Milei's victory resulted from the population's fatigue from the prolonged economic crisis. As a future president, Milei is betting heavily on ties to the U.S. and the dollar. However, if he is reckless in his actions, he risks plunging the country into an even bigger crisis. This in turn will cause the IMF to increase the country's debt load, as it happened under Macri.

When companies go bankrupt, American and European financial corporations will gladly buy their assets at a cheap price. We have already seen this scenario unfold in countries engulfed in military conflicts (Ukraine) or an economic crisis (Turkey).

🔻That said, Milei's bloc does not have a majority in Congress, so his office will have to work on forming alliances to push through legislation.

#Argentina #election #US #Brazil #China #IMF

☠️ Blood Meridian

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ There are no Friends - We are Alone⚡️

🔸 Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on Moscow's western and eastern "Partners":

🔹 Today's approval by the #EU of a long-term budget assistance program for Kiev (€50 billion for 4 years), announced by the head of the European Council Charles Michel, is important because it once again shows the true value of hopes for any "partners" in the West.

🔹 No "Friend of Russia" Orban (who promised to veto the allocation of funds) ultimately did not help. First of all, because Orban is not a "Friend of Russia". Orban is a typical Hungarian politician who heads a country that is a member of #NATO. It is absolutely natural that in the long-term bargaining he chose the most profitable option for himself and for Budapest, having managed to get solid preferences from Moscow in exchange for loud and, as it turned out, completely empty statements.

🔹 Before that, it was the same story with "Friend Recep." There were also a lot of predictions that Ankara would never let #Sweden join #NATO for the sake of partnership with Moscow. As a result, the #US offered good conditions, and Erdogan willingly sold this partnership, and not for the first (and probably not for the last) time.

🔹 All this is a good lesson for the future, including the near future, which will come after the #US presidential election. A lot of "experts" are trying to push the thesis that now, in principle, you can do nothing - Trump will come and hand over the Ukrainians. Such "analytics" is extremely dangerous, because it works perfectly and creates a very cozy feeling that "everything will pass by itself."

🔹 It won't work. It will no longer be possible to "roll back" the fundamental decision on the destruction of #Russia, and they will not give it. The #West needs Moscow to lose, and the #East (represented by #India, #China and the "Gulf" Monarchies) needs it not to win. No Trump will change this course, and he will not want to change it.

🔹 Let me remind you that it was with Trump in April 2018 that the Russian Federation had the toughest confrontation in #Syria. And if elected, which will be accompanied by a deep internal crisis in the #US, nothing will prevent him from escalating around #Ukraine, much more serious than the one that Washington is implementing today.

🔹 But, unfortunately, stepping on the same rake is our tradition. It didn't work out with Erdogan - it will work out with Orban. Orban threw it - well, Trump certainly won't let you down. This thought is much less painful than the understanding that no one but Us needs Victory, and we can only rely on our own strength, and not on the collapse of the #EU, nor the collapse of the dollar or the fall of an asteroid on the White House.

📌 But it is unlikely that conclusions will be drawn. So even Erdogan and Orban will try to sell themselves to #Russia as a "Reliable Ally" more than once, and lobbyists in high #Moscow offices will certainly find an excuse for them and help them carry out a new deal, as a result of which we will once again be made fools of.

📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel

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⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸⚔️ Escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Zone until the End of 22 March 2024⚡️

🔹In the north of the #Gaza Strip, the Israeli operation continues on the territory of the Al-Shifa Hospital complex. Palestinian forces again carried out several forays, and the Israeli command announced its intention to complete counter-terrorism measures in a few days.

🔹From the vicinity of Khan Yunis, footage 👉 published by Al Jazeera showing Israeli attacks on unarmed Palestinians is being actively discussed on the Net. Hamas-affiliated media presented this video as further evidence of war crimes by Israeli troops in the enclave.

🔹In the West Bank, as usual, Israeli police raids took place in more than ten settlements. And in the settlement of Dolev, another terrorist attack happened. A gunman shot at an Israeli minibus with a machine gun, injuring seven people.

🔹On the border with #Lebanon, routine exchanges of strikes continue. Hezbollah reported hits on Israeli military targets, including Ruwaisat al-Alam and Jal al-Alam. In turn, the IDF worked in several settlements in southern #Lebanon.

🔹In the UN Security Council, meanwhile, #Russia and #China blocked the #US draft resolution on the Gaza Strip due to the lack of a clear call for a ceasefire in the document. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the IDF in any case would not abandon plans to conduct a military operation in Rafah.

🧾 Read More on our Channel 👉 🇷🇺 @rybar_plus_bot

🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP

📜 RYBAR; 22 Mar 2024, 23:27

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🔎🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇦 Through the Lens: Chinese think-tank on the Ukraine crisis

Throughout the year, the crisis in Ukraine has exhibited several features. A war of attrition with significant losses — the Ukraine crisis has thus far lasted more than 600 days, and both sides have invested considerable human, material, and financial resources.

A protracted tug-of-war — in 2023, the two sides have made limited changes in the front. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can launch a decisive offensive to turn the tide of the war.

The road to a political settlement Is long and difficult. The reasons are:

1️⃣ The Russian and Ukrainian positions are diametrically opposed. Russia cannot accept defeat, refuses to abandon the existing front, and will continue pushing forward. Ukraine refuses to acknowledge the status quo and seeks to recover its territory. The battlefield will remain relatively balanced in the short term, making it difficult to see fundamental changes.

2️⃣ The United States and Europe will continue to aid Ukraine, but fatigue is becoming apparent. At the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, 72% of Americans actively supported aid to Ukraine, but that number had fallen to approximately 63% by October 2023. In April 2022, 33% of EU respondents strongly supported supplying arms to Ukraine, a figure that had dropped to 24% in August 2023.

Broad and far-reaching global impact

The prolonged Ukraine crisis has contributed to a reconfiguration of relations among the major countries and the global order.

▪️One such change is the definitive termination of the post-Cold War order. Russia and the United States are at loggerheads, and through the Ukrainian crisis, they hope to push for a renewal of the international order.

The second is the rising risk of conflict between the major countries. The Ukraine crisis has lowered the bottom line of national competition. All parties are now willing to resort to extreme means to achieve their goals.

▪️The third is the strengthening of the Western camp. The US has also greatly exaggerated the “Russian threat” and further activated small multilateral security mechanisms with Japan and South Korea, the UK, and Australia.

The strategic buffer between NATO and Russia has disappeared, creating a clear geopolitical divide and plunging Europe into a new Cold War.

🔻 The Ukraine crisis has sparked a series of regional hotspots:

In September 2023, Azerbaijan began an anti-terrorist operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, achieving total victory.

The US and the West have pushed Japan and South Korea to strengthen cooperation and plotted to strengthen the Northeast Asian alliance system; this is likely to result in the great power game around the Korean Peninsula becoming increasingly fierce.

The adjustment of relations between the major countries brought about by the Ukraine crisis is also an incentive for resuming the Israeli—Palestinian conflict.

❗️The protracted Ukraine crisis is one of the most critical events in the evolution of the contemporary international order. The international community must make concerted efforts to advance the peace process.

Full report

China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations is a prominent think-tank working directly under Chinese government.

#China #Russia #Ukraine

@asianomics

🇨🇳🇹🇼 Beijing wields warplanes, trade and travel to pressure Taiwan’s next president

As Lai Ching-te prepares to take office as Taiwan’s next president, Beijing appears to be using a dual strategy of military plane fly-bys and relaxed travel and food import restrictions to ramp up pressure on the island’s next leader, according to observers.

Last weekend, 12 People’s Liberation Army aircraft crossed the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait, with an unspecified number flying as close as 68.5km from the northern Taiwanese city of Keelung. It marked the closest-ever fly-by the island’s military has disclosed to the public.

At the same time, Beijing’s vice-minister of culture and tourism Rao Quan announced that residents of Fujian province would be the first to resume visits to Matsu, a Taiwanese defense outpost near the mainland coast.

Additionally, a senior mainland customs official said that imports of Taiwanese pomelos and two types of seafood would resume. These imports had been banned in August 2022 in retaliation for a visit to Taiwan by then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi.

#China #Taiwan

@asianomics

🇨🇳🇹🇼 China stages mock missile strikes on Taiwan

China conducted mock missile strikes and dispatched bombers carrying live missiles on Friday in its two-day Taiwan drills in exercises Beijing has said were launched to punish Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te.

The bombers set up several attack formations in waters east of Taiwan, carrying out mock attacks in co-ordination with naval vessels as China tested its ability to "seize power" and control key areas of Taiwan.

A senior Taiwan security official said that several Chinese bombers conducted mock attacks on foreign vessels near the eastern end of the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, practicing how to seize "total control" of areas west of the first island chain.

The Chinese theatre command showed an animated video of missiles being launched at Taiwan from the ground, air and sea, which then slam into the cities of Taipei, Kaohsiung and Hualien in balls of flame.

#China #Taiwan

@asianomics

🇨🇳🇵🇭 China warns Philippines against ‘dangerous behaviour’ near disputed Sabina Shoal

China has said it will take “resolute countermeasures” against “dangerous behaviour” in disputed South China Sea islands as the Chinese coastguard again warned off Manila’s vessels a day before Beijing’s new rule for arresting maritime trespassers came into force.

According to reports, the Philippine coastguard dispatched boats on Friday to land on the islets of Sabina Shoal, known as Xianbin Jiao in Chinese and Escoda Shoal in the Philippines, to which Chinese forces responded with “restrictive measures”.

The incident came on the eve of a new regulation authorising the Chinese coastguard to detain foreign nationals for up to 60 days if they trespass in the South China Sea, which China considers its territorial waters.

#China #ThePhilippines

@asianomics

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇵🇭 US East Asia envoy says South China Sea situation deeply concerning

US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink on Saturday said the situation in the South China Sea is deeply concerning, and said China's recent actions in the disputed waterway were "deeply destabilising".

Kritenbrink made the comments during a visit to Hanoi, amid rising tension between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, where Vietnam is also a claimant.

"We think that China's actions, particularly its recent actions, around the Second Thomas Shoal, vis-à-vis the Philippines have been irresponsible, aggressive, dangerous, deeply destabilising," Kritenbrink said at a briefing.

#USA #China #ThePhilippines

@asianomics