⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis: The State of #Ukraine's Energy System after 2 Months of Systematic Strikes⚡️

On 10 Oct, the RF Forces launched the first massive strike on #Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The state after two months of strikes.

♦️Where was the Hit?

At the end of Nov, a cumulative effect worked. Limited strikes in certain regions began to lead to nationwide blackouts.

The main target was the distribution grid rather than generation facilities. Three-phase 330/110 kV autotransformers and single-phase 750/330 kV autotransformers were knocked out in substations.

High-voltage circuit breakers, line disconnectors, current and voltage transformers were incidentally affected.

In some rare cases, general control stations (GCPs) and TPPs were hit.

♦️Was the Fire Attack really systemic?

Despite the seeming strangeness, the strikes can be roughly divided into five logically interrelated stages:

▪️ Stage 1: strikes on nodal high-voltage substations.
✅ Ability to analyse the consequences for the entire system and the time taken to recover.

▪️ Stage 2: strikes on substations in major cities and the Ukrenergo building to limit dispatch control.
✅ Temporary difficulties and introduction of rolling blackout schedules.

▪️ Stage 3: isolation of the three remaining NPPs from the country's power system.
✅ The Khmelnitsky NPP and one unit of the Rivne NPP have been shut down in an emergency. The centre and west were left without power supply. Shutdown schedules have been tightened.

▪️ Stage 4: strikes on switchgear of large power plants and power plants themselves, repeated strikes on node substations.
✅ Temporary collapse of the power system, acute shortage of electricity generation. Import of electricity from #Poland and #Romania. Constant unscheduled emergency outages.

▪️ Stage 5: methodical knocking out of the remaining substations and PPs that are pulling the power supply to consumers across the country.
✅ It is continuing now. The results can be seen in the strikes on #Odessa, #Kiev and #Sumy. Similar things are happening in #Lvov and #Dnipropetrovsk regions.

♦️Okay, but everything can be restored, right?

Ukraine has run out of reserves, its own production in #Zaporozhye stopped long ago.

Despite the PR actions with the transfer of secondary equipment, no one can actually supply high-voltage autotransformers now (except for a few from #Lithuania and possibly #Bulgaria and #Romania).

Even if the European industry refocuses on #Ukraine's needs, the first unit deliveries will have to wait at least six months.

♦️So there is a complete collapse in #Ukraine right now?

Not exactly.

Measures are being taken now to protect the most important points. Barriers are being built at the surviving sites. Air defence is being built up.

♦️So the Power Grid is partially intact?

Alas, yes.

The restoration work is being carried out because of incomprehensible humanism on the part of the RF Forces. If the strikes were not on the power equipment, but on the control posts, there would be nothing to restore.

A strike on the control room with the destruction of the building would render the substation inoperable. In addition, #Ukraine needs to be deprived of the ability to generate electricity.

♦️What is the practical effect now?

The idea of moving the country to separate "islands" fed by the nearest power station is being discussed. The damage has reduced the manageability of the power system and is causing numerous accidents.

#Moldova has been affected, as the main PPs are in #Transnistria.

The option of importing electricity from #Europe and bringing in floating Turkish PPs is being considered.

🩸But the point of no return has already been passed?

Yes, the energy system is still capable of supplying critical industries and rail transport. But the further it goes, the more things go wrong.

That is why the strikes have to continue!

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation at the Fronts on the Evening of 11 Jan 2023; pub. 0:19⚡️

🇷🇺 Today, the head of the Wagner PMCs confirmed the transition of #Soledar to our control. At the same time, the Defence Ministry stated that Russian army units have blockaded the town from the northern and southern parts. The settlement itself has been cleared of militants; the next targets of the "orchestrators" are the city's mines. So far, the civilians have been withdrawn from the combat zone and the units of militants who refused to surrender have been destroyed.

🏵 Now we can definitely talk about the first major victory of Russian weapons in the new year after a series of retreats in several areas. Finally, our flag will not be lowered, but raised over #Soledar liberated from the Nazis.

⚔️The Situation on the Fronts for the past Day

♦️#Svatovo - #Kremennaya Direction:

The Russian army, supported by artillery and army aviation, struck concentrations of manpower in the area of #Sinkovka, #Kislovka in #Kharkov region and at #Novoselovskoye, Chervonaya Dibrova, #Makeyevka and #Chervonopopovka in the LPR, as well as in the area of #Torskoye DPR. Additionally, three Ukrainian SRGs have been liquidated in the districts of #Kuzmino LPR and #Serebryanskoye forestry.

♦️#Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) Direction:

The Wagner PMC has taken full 👉 control of the #Opytnoye village, south of #Artyomovsk. Thus, the "orchestrators" have secured a path to the southern quarters of the town.

♦️#Ugledar Direction:

In the vicinity of #Nikolskoye, #Prechistovka and #Novosyolka, the Russian army launched strikes on AFU units. The militants lost up to 25 Nazis, a BMP and two vehicles.

💥 Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces zeroed out a Ukrainian Su-27 near Popov Yar DPR. Also, two US AN/TPQ-50 and AN/TPQ-36 radars were destroyed near #Artyomovsk and #Dzerzhinsk, DPR.

💡Today in #Lvov, the leaders of #Poland, #Lithuania and #Ukraine signed a joint declaration of the "Lublin Triangle" - it involves sending 404 air defence systems and a company of Leopard 2 tanks. Ten vehicles in all. But that is not the most important thing. The gathering of Europe's leading Russophobes has historical overtones. Why? Explains Readovka.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Special Operation, 23 Feb 2023, Main; pub. 00:00⚡️

▪️ Biden does not see Russia's suspension of participation in START as a sign of preparations to use nuclear weapons;

▪️ Ukrainian troops have no success in #Artyomovsk and #Ugledar directions, they are losing many soldiers every day, Pushilin's adviser told RIA Novosti;

▪️ Ukrainians of conscription age wishing to enter #Russia via #Latvia, #Lithuania and #Estonia, as well as from #Poland to #Belarus, are being returned to #Ukraine and mobilized at Kiev's request, a source told RIA Novosti;

▪️ Kiev is preparing an armed provocation against #Transnistria, which may be carried out by members of the Ukrainian National Security Forces 👉 Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD);

▪️ Crimean bridge opened to vehicular traffic in all lanes, Khusnullin said;

▪️ Moldovan authorities are leading the country according to the Ukrainian scenario, although they should counter Kiev's attempts to drag Chisinau into war, former president Dodon said;

▪️ #Finland will transfer three Leopard 2 tanks to #Ukraine and train the Ukrainian military as part of the 13th military aid package, the country's Defence Ministry has said;

▪️ If #China's position on the Ukrainian conflict is not heard, there will be serious consequences, #Lukashenko said, also announcing Xi Jinping's statement on the conflict in the near future;

▪️ #NATO countries have depleted stocks of artillery shells for delivery to #Ukraine, see the challenge in ramping up their production in the "war of attrition" phase, Stoltenberg said;

▪️ Russian military destroyed up to 105 enemy soldiers, nine vehicles and six ammunition depots in #SouthDonetsk direction, MoD said;

▪️ The West should do everything to resolve the Ukrainian conflict instead of sanctions, #China's deputy ambassador to the UN, Dai Bin, said.

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