⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 15 Nov 2022⚡️

🩸 In the evening, the Russian Armed Forces again carried out massive strikes on critical infrastructure in #Ukraine. Targets were hit in #Zhytomyr, #Kiev, #Kharkov, #Zmiev, #Lvov, #Rivne and #Artsyz, as well as in #Sumy, #Khmelnitsky, Ivano-Frankovsk and #Vinnitsa regions.

Ukrainian air defence could not repel the attacks. There have been power outages across the country.

▪️ During the raid, two munitions landed near the Polish village of Przewodowy, killing two farmers. According to preliminary reports, a stray AFU S-300 anti-aircraft missile collapsed on Polish territory.

#Belgorod Region:

▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled residential buildings in the village of #Leninsky, as well as in the villages of #Bezymeno, #Kozinka and #Spodaryusheno. Civilians were not injured.

▪️ In the evening, enemy militants attacked residential areas in the town of #Shebekino. At least three people were killed and three others wounded.

▪️ Russian air defence forces intercepted almost all targets over #Valuyki and in the #Graivoron urban district, but one person was killed by a missile. Another woman was injured.

#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):

▪️ In the #Kupyansk sector, artillery units of the 14th AFU Brigade shelled the #Olshana - #Pervomayskoye - #Orlyanka - #Yagodnoye line. Enemy targeting was carried out by drones and SRGs near #Ivanovka.

▪️ In the #Svatovo sector, assault commandos of the 2nd Battalion of the AFU's 92nd Mechanized Brigade entrenched on the western outskirts of #Stelmakhovka and continued their offensive towards #Kuzemovka. The advancing enemy forces were detected by UAVs and withdrew to their initial positions under artillery fire from the Russian forces.

▪️ In the #Lyman sector, a company of the AFU's 25th Airmobile Brigade, supported by armoured vehicles, attempted to break through towards #Chervonopopovka. Russian forces repulsed the attack and later hit the brigade's positions, killing two and wounding 15 Ukrainian paratroopers.

▪️ In the #Lysychansk sector, fighting continues near #Belogorovka. An enemy SRG conducted combat reconnaissance on Russian positions near #Zolotarevka. The Russian forces detected the enemy's concentration and launched a preemptive strike, forcing the Ukrainian militants to retreat to their initial positions with losses.

#Lugansk People's Republic:

▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled residential buildings in #Denezhnikovo and #Volcheyarovka with barrel and missile artillery. Civilians were not harmed.

#Donetsk Direction (MAP):

▪️ The AFU command is moving reinforcements and equipping additional fortifications to hold the stronghold of #Avdeyevka.

▪️ Clashes continue in #Vodyanoye and #Nevelskoye. An enemy sabotage group has unsuccessfully tried to break through the advancing Russian ranks in #Pervomayskoye.

▪️ Russian forces under constant fire from Ukrainian artillery and MLRS continue to clear the northern outskirts of #Opytnoye.

▪️ Ukrainian militants have struck residential areas and civilian infrastructure in #Donetsk, #Gorlovka, #Yasynuvata, #Yakovlevka and other settlements in the agglomeration.

#Zaporozhye Direction (MAP):

▪️ The enemy is conducting reconnaissance along the line of contact as well as in the rear of Russian forces with the help of drones and pro-Ukrainian civilian informers.

▪️ In preparation for the offensive, the Ukrainian command is transferring reinforcements from the direction of #Kherson to the #Orekhov sector.

▪️ In #Melitopol, Ukrainian terrorists carried out an assassination attempt on a former city councillor by detonating a bomb outside his entrance. The injured official has been taken to hospital in serious condition.

#Kherson Direction on Southern Front (MAP):

▪️ AFU units continue to entrench themselves on the right bank of the #Dnipro River. At the same time, filtration activities are taking place in and around #Kherson, involving mercenaries from the UK and Georgia.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis - Russian Armed Forces hit Ukraine's Energy System on 15 Nov 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its analysis of the consequences of a systemic fire attack on Ukraine's energy system.

#Kiev said today's raid was the largest such attack since the start of the SMO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities.

We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, with each successive raid resulting in increasingly grave consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is exactly what today's events have demonstrated:

▪️ Strikes on the #Zmiev thermal power plant in #Chuguev district temporarily completely de-energised the entire #Kharkov region.

▪️ Strikes on facilities in #Kiev led to massive overloads in the power grid and tripping of emergency frequency overload automatics, which was perfectly visible in the footage of pulsating power on and off.

▪️ Repeated strikes on the #Zhytomyr 330 substation resulted in power outages in this regional centre and areas around it.

▪️ Voltage surges and temporary power outages were reported in western regions of Ukraine after repeated strikes on the Lvov-South 330 substation in Lvov Region and the #Kovel 330 substation in #Volyn Region.

🔻 For the first time, #Moldova also experienced the consequences of Russian missile strikes: paradoxically, they were the consequence of the policies of the authorities themselves in #Chisinau.

➖ Restrictions of gas supply to #Transnistria led to decrease of generation of the Moldavian state district power station that with its capacity stabilized the situation in the south of #Odessa region and fed the energy deficit of #Moldova.

➖ Due to reduced capacity and increased consumption from Ukraine, exacerbated by a possible impact on the 330 substation in #Artsyz, an automatic protection was triggered at the TPP. The plant switched to self-powered operation, which caused consumers in Moldova and Transnistria to be disconnected.

➖ Also, a section of the 750kV high voltage transit line in #Romania was disconnected, which may indirectly indicate a possible short circuit from the 750kV switchgear of the South Ukraine NPP.

🔻 The lack of objective data from most of the hit locations made it impossible to determine exactly which elements of the energy facilities were targeted in each attack.

However, dense black plumes could be seen in photos and videos from the arrival areas. This indirectly indicates that it is highly likely that the strikes were again directed at power and automatic transformers rather than general control stations (GCPs).

🩸 Their preservation would once again allow Ukrainian power producers to reassemble emergency circuits and eliminate damaged equipment in a relatively short period of time. Yes, it will cause even more severe restrictions, but power supply to consumers will be restored.

The absence of strikes on the General Control Stations reduces the impact on the Ukrainian energy system, although even then its resilience drops with each attack.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 How the Russian Armed Forces managed to destroy Odesa's energy sector — Rybar and Military Chronicle’s analysis

In Ukraine, the consequences of previous missile strikes on energy infrastructure facilities have been almost completely eliminated: outdoor lighting always functions, and scheduled power outages are gradually being cancelled.

With this in mind, the Russian Armed Forces' strikes seem pointless, as Ukraine repeatedly claims that it has managed to handle the problem with power supply. In fact, this does not correspond the reality. The #Odesa case shows this in practice. In fact, this is the first Ukrainian region, the power system of which was damaged critically.

🔻 How is Odesa's power supply system arranged?

The 330 kW power distribution is organized through one key node, the #Usatove substation.

#Novovodeska and #Adzhalyk substations were also hit: one of the two 330/110kW autotransformers was hit. A similar situation is developing at the #Artsyz substation.

According to open sources information, the total transformer capacity with its own generation is only a third of what it was before, about 471.7 MW (of 1332 MW). This is critically insufficient for Odesa.

🔻 Do preventive shutdowns help?

It helps minimize damage in the event of an attack, but if there are no strikes, it only makes it worse. Every shutdown causes overvoltage. As a consequence, not only 110 kW and 35 kW equipment and transformers fail, but also medium voltage - 10/0.4 kW and 6/0.4 kW - necessary for normal city life.

The constant switching on/off of equipment causes damage, sometimes comparable to the impact itself, but in this case not point-to-point, but distributed throughout the network. It can take a long time to restore power, and the city is transferred to generators. In a sense, declaring an air alert in this case is more dangerous than the strike itself.

🔻 What are Ukrainian energy companies doing?

DTEK's main efforts are focused on several areas:

➖Maintaining the remaining high-voltage equipment
➖Maintaining the equipment in function
➖Restoring 110, 10 and 6 kW networks

❗️ 330 kW networks are the most difficult to restore. They are repaired on a spot basis to maintain the minimum functionality of the substation. But it is impossible to replace autotransformers now.

Because of the restoration of low-voltage networks, the need to power from a limited number of substations increases.

This leads to mains voltage drops, which are compensated for by a rise in voltage at the power transformers. However, as new substations are switched on, the drop stops, and the high voltage transformers remain unchanged. It turns out that in apartments and houses of residents the level rises to 260-270 W instead of the usual 220 W - and further loads the power grid.

🔻 Prospects

The strikes on Ukraine's power system, despite their non-obviousness, are bearing fruit, which is most seriously felt in the Odesa region. If the strikes continue, the city's energy system will simply fail, and the region will be isolated from the general grid for a long time - from several weeks to several months.

In theory, this will limit the transfer of personnel and equipment from #Romania and #Moldova by rail and reduce the logistics capabilities of the Odesa port. But this is a double-edged sword: the energy crisis may push the AFU to seize the Cuciurgan power station in #Transnistria.

The deterioration of the situation will put even more pressure on the local population: discontent is growing every day. And the forced mobilization of citizens exacerbates the situation in the region.

❗️ Odesa region is the first one where the plot to destroy the energy infrastructure has succeeded, bringing about military and political changes.

High-res

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 How the Russian Armed Forces managed to destroy Odessa's energy sector — Rybar and Military Chronicle’s analysis

In Ukraine, the consequences of previous missile strikes on energy infrastructure facilities have been almost completely eliminated: outdoor lighting always functions, and scheduled power outages are gradually being cancelled.

With this in mind, the Russian Armed Forces' strikes seem pointless, as Ukraine repeatedly claims that it has managed to handle the problem with power supply. In fact, this does not correspond the reality. The #Odessa case shows this in practice. In fact, this is the first Ukrainian region, the power system of which was damaged critically.

🔻 How is Odessa's power supply system arranged?

The 330 kW power distribution is organized through one key node, the #Usatove substation.

#Novovodeska and #Adzhalyk substations were also hit: one of the two 330/110kW autotransformers was hit. A similar situation is developing at the #Artsyz substation.

According to open sources information, the total transformer capacity with its own generation is only a third of what it was before, about 471.7 MW (of 1332 MW). This is critically insufficient for Odessa.

🔻 Do preventive shutdowns help?

It helps minimize damage in the event of an attack, but if there are no strikes, it only makes it worse. Every shutdown causes overvoltage. As a consequence, not only 110 kW and 35 kW equipment and transformers fail, but also medium voltage - 10/0.4 kW and 6/0.4 kW - necessary for normal city life.

The constant switching on/off of equipment causes damage, sometimes comparable to the impact itself, but in this case not point-to-point, but distributed throughout the network. It can take a long time to restore power, and the city is transferred to generators. In a sense, declaring an air alert in this case is more dangerous than the strike itself.

🔻 What are Ukrainian energy companies doing?

DTEK's main efforts are focused on several areas:

➖Maintaining the remaining high-voltage equipment
➖Maintaining the equipment in function
➖Restoring 110, 10 and 6 kW networks

❗️ 330 kW networks are the most difficult to restore. They are repaired on a spot basis to maintain the minimum functionality of the substation. But it is impossible to replace autotransformers now.

Because of the restoration of low-voltage networks, the need to power from a limited number of substations increases.

This leads to mains voltage drops, which are compensated for by a rise in voltage at the power transformers. However, as new substations are switched on, the drop stops, and the high voltage transformers remain unchanged. It turns out that in apartments and houses of residents the level rises to 260-270 W instead of the usual 220 W - and further loads the power grid.

🔻 Prospects

The strikes on Ukraine's power system, despite their non-obviousness, are bearing fruit, which is most seriously felt in the Odesa region. If the strikes continue, the city's energy system will simply fail, and the region will be isolated from the general grid for a long time - from several weeks to several months.

In theory, this will limit the transfer of personnel and equipment from #Romania and #Moldova by rail and reduce the logistics capabilities of the Odessa port. But this is a double-edged sword: the energy crisis may push the AFU to seize the Cuciurgan power station in #Transnistria.

The deterioration of the situation will put even more pressure on the local population: discontent is growing every day. And the forced mobilization of citizens exacerbates the situation in the region.

❗️ Odessa region is the first one where the plot to destroy the energy infrastructure has succeeded, bringing about military and political changes.

High-res

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