⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ There are no Friends - We are Alone⚡️

🔸 Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on Moscow's western and eastern "Partners":

🔹 Today's approval by the #EU of a long-term budget assistance program for Kiev (€50 billion for 4 years), announced by the head of the European Council Charles Michel, is important because it once again shows the true value of hopes for any "partners" in the West.

🔹 No "Friend of Russia" Orban (who promised to veto the allocation of funds) ultimately did not help. First of all, because Orban is not a "Friend of Russia". Orban is a typical Hungarian politician who heads a country that is a member of #NATO. It is absolutely natural that in the long-term bargaining he chose the most profitable option for himself and for Budapest, having managed to get solid preferences from Moscow in exchange for loud and, as it turned out, completely empty statements.

🔹 Before that, it was the same story with "Friend Recep." There were also a lot of predictions that Ankara would never let #Sweden join #NATO for the sake of partnership with Moscow. As a result, the #US offered good conditions, and Erdogan willingly sold this partnership, and not for the first (and probably not for the last) time.

🔹 All this is a good lesson for the future, including the near future, which will come after the #US presidential election. A lot of "experts" are trying to push the thesis that now, in principle, you can do nothing - Trump will come and hand over the Ukrainians. Such "analytics" is extremely dangerous, because it works perfectly and creates a very cozy feeling that "everything will pass by itself."

🔹 It won't work. It will no longer be possible to "roll back" the fundamental decision on the destruction of #Russia, and they will not give it. The #West needs Moscow to lose, and the #East (represented by #India, #China and the "Gulf" Monarchies) needs it not to win. No Trump will change this course, and he will not want to change it.

🔹 Let me remind you that it was with Trump in April 2018 that the Russian Federation had the toughest confrontation in #Syria. And if elected, which will be accompanied by a deep internal crisis in the #US, nothing will prevent him from escalating around #Ukraine, much more serious than the one that Washington is implementing today.

🔹 But, unfortunately, stepping on the same rake is our tradition. It didn't work out with Erdogan - it will work out with Orban. Orban threw it - well, Trump certainly won't let you down. This thought is much less painful than the understanding that no one but Us needs Victory, and we can only rely on our own strength, and not on the collapse of the #EU, nor the collapse of the dollar or the fall of an asteroid on the White House.

📌 But it is unlikely that conclusions will be drawn. So even Erdogan and Orban will try to sell themselves to #Russia as a "Reliable Ally" more than once, and lobbyists in high #Moscow offices will certainly find an excuse for them and help them carry out a new deal, as a result of which we will once again be made fools of.

📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on Macron and the "Red Lines"⚡️

🗓 The week is not over yet, but the main newsmaker was, of course, Macron, who spoke about the possibility of sending #NATO troops to #Ukraine. Almost all Western leaders and a number of European and American media hastened to refute this prospect. In general, everyone agreed that nothing of the kind was being discussed, and in general, Macron was misunderstood.

🔹An important marker is the speed at which the Western "hawks" ran after Macron to wipe. It will not work to attribute this to fear of #Moscow's reaction - in the West they have not been afraid of it for a long time. The repeated transfer of red lines has greatly devalued the bellicose rhetoric on the part of certain individuals, unfortunately, quite official ones.

🔹It's much more likely that Macron let it slip. It happens. Emotions are not the most stable psyche, and as a result - a declaration of what is really being discussed. More precisely, it is not so - it cannot be discussed. Especially after #Avdeyevka, in which Western analytical centers see a harbinger of a future catastrophe.

🔹From the point of view of the #West, the option is a win-win and safe - of course, no one believes in nuclear threats broadcast via Telegram, but they believe that the formal entry of the contingent will be used by Western agents of influence in #Moscow to freeze the conflict. Threats in the spirit of "now we are dying" will be used not in the interests of #Russia, but against it, acting as an argument in favor of a new "Minsk".

🔹Relatively speaking, some will strenuously escalate so that others will use it to suspend the conflict on terms far from their stated goals, which, of course, will be a defeat for #Moscow.

🔹At the same time, the perception of this approach in the format of the Second World War is absurd. The Western contingent is already de facto on the territory of #Ukraine in the form of mercenaries, advisers and maintenance personnel. The only question is in its design and number. Legalisation with a rapid increase, when in a short period of time, without any serious consequences, several red lines declared by #Moscow will be crossed at once, according to the #West's plan, and will become its victory in #Ukraine.

🔹How it will be framed is the tenth question. But this scenario has probably already been agreed with those who actually represent the interests of the #West in #Moscow. De-escalation through escalation, especially verbal and unrelated to a real threat, is an old and proven method. The fact that such a scenario became possible is the fault of those who repeatedly promised to "smash their face if ..." and then pretended that nothing had happened when this "if" was immediately realised.

📌 In the #West, they are not afraid of "nuclear war" or talking about it. They are afraid of economic terror and targeted actions. Conditionally- what the Houthis are doing and what can be organised through the Darknet. For example, the fact that a well-armed "Latino" with debts to the cartel will come to a meeting with voters. Or that an angry Palestinian decides to avenge the dead relatives to the families of those who send weapons to #Israel. #Moscow does not use these tools, still hoping that eventually relations with the #West will be able to roll back to the 21st year. And the #West feels it very well.

📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel

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📋🇷🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺 On the Prospects for the Participation of #EU Countries in the War in #Ukraine📍

🔹The issue of open participation of soldiers of European #NATO countries in the war on the territory of #Ukraine is being actively pushed by the anti-people governments of the #EU countries at the highest level, despite rather poorly organised opposition and protests. #France and #Germany are the actual driving forces in this situation, although high officials are trying to accustom their population to this gradually.

🔹Against the background of the build-up of #NATO troops and infrastructure on the eastern flank and multinational exercises involving tens of thousands of soldiers, the construction of a military network is intensifying factories and supply chains. At the same time, only the #US and #England are interested in such actions, and military-industrial corporations are the beneficiaries.

🔹But at present, the same #France, led by the gerontophile Macron, has in its Army about 200 thousand people and just over 200 Leclerc tanks (for comparison: for the “counter-offensive” of the AFU last year, #NATO supplied a total of about 500 units of armored vehicles, in mostly Soviet). That is, for now a separate army

🔹Although Macron has already been taking measures to increase the combat readiness of the French army for a couple of years. Yesterday, data leaked online about the revision of the military doctrine of Paris to confront an enemy “who can compare with its army in firepower”

🔹The unthinkability of war against #Russia or #Germany is eliminated...by lack of education. 80 percent of young Germans are convinced that the #US won World War II, forgetting who took #Berlin. Hence the relatively “calm” public reaction to the leaked negotiations between German officers about the supply of up to 100 Taurus missiles, including for the destruction of the Crimean Bridge.

🔹However, #NATO countries are objectively not ready for a protracted war with #Russia on the territory of #Ukraine, even if we exclude the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow. Objectively, there will not be enough armored vehicles and artillery ammunition. Although our principles in the field of nuclear deterrence allow us to strike when “the enemy’s impact on critically important state or military facilities, the failure of which would lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces' or 'aggression against Russia using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.'

🔹Against the backdrop of the #EU countries actually preparing for open participation in the conflict in #Ukraine, we can say that Russia has 1.5-2 years before “closing the Ukrainian issue.” The production of weapons and military equipment in the #West has not yet been launched. Because the war benefits Western arms corporations and it is unlikely that any of them will want to reforge their swords into something else, cheaper.

🔹Of course, there is a well-founded point of view that the globalists intend to drive the peoples of #Europe into a frenzy in the face of global meat grinder and Armageddon, and then sharply offer a way out in the form of the loss of a significant part of freedoms in exchange for peace.

⭐️ But so far all the plans of politicians, their agreements and joint statements always end in a bloodbath.

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📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 2 June 2024; pub. 07:17📍

🗓 The past week took place against the backdrop of an info campaign by Kiev and the most reactionary #NATO countries to obtain formal permission for the AFU to hit #Russia's "old regions", primarily adjacent to #Kharkov.

🔹This is cause the enemy was forced to transfer reinforcements to the #Kharkov front after the start of the Russian "buffer zone" operation, reducing the defence on other front sections.. Our troops have fought for many days in #Volchansk and at the #Liptsy edge, but heavy fights became positional. Kiev has stepped up openly terrorist strikes against civilians. Shelling of the #Belgorod region has intensified, the AFU hits agricultural firms, petrol stations, civil buses, rural machinery in the fields, shops and shopping centres.

🔹The enemy's aim to inflict economic damage on #Russia is also indicated by this week's strikes on refineries in Krasnodar kray with Neptun missiles and the use of ATACMS on ferries in the Kerch Strait used for transporting fuel. With the wording "in response to" the RF MoD reported strikes on #Ukraine's energy generating facilities, including the Dnepro HPP and other still active plants. #Ukraine's energy sector is already working at breakneck speed with serious outages, but there is no way to speak of a complete blackout.

🔹To prepare for active summer operations, our troops intensify combat work on different front sites. On the #Zaporozhye front, our units west of #Rabotino occupied 4 strongholds, moving to the area of #Shcherbaki, POWs were taken. On the #Kherson direction there is very active RFAF work in the island zone of the #Dnieper. The #Sumy direction is characterised by high intensity of mutual blows and movement of our troops in the #Kursk region, wwas noticed by the enemy. Western media point to many signals of satellite communication systems of our troops in the #Kursk region. There was no lack of blatant giddiness with the troop transfer by motorised columns. In the #ChasovYar direction are heavy battles in the eastern town parts. The RFAF advanced units have crossed the Canal from the south. In the north are battles at the #Kalinovka village. West of #Avdeyevka, our troops are gnawing through the enemy defences from the #Ocheretio ledge to #Netaylovo. To the south, expanding the control zones and close "pockets" as the offensive progresses.

🔹Kiev is mass mobilising. The net is filled with brutal footage of police and TCC detentions of citizens, scandals with openly sick Ukrainians to be sent to the front concentrating the hatred of the populace on TCC rather than Zelensky and Rada deputies who passed draconian laws to please the #West. Fleeing across the border is becoming more and more difficult. Even the Romanians, jointly with the State Border Guard Service of #Ukraine, try to return evaders. The only way out remains the guerrilla movement, the cars of Ukrainian military commissars are burning little by little, and cases of forceful repulse becoming more frequent. But the battered population hopes to survive after being sent to the front, and many zombified mobilised do not even think about the reasons for what is happening. Nevertheless, #Ukraine's mobilisation potential remains high.

🔹In the RF MoD, the high-profile resignations and arrests, which began amid a change in the leadership of the ministry this week, have found their continuation. So far, the military machine continues to operate the way it was set up in previous years.

📌 In the coming summer period, several sections of the front are expected to become more active, subject to mandatory personnel conservation. It is most likely to keep exhausting the enemy and stretching his defence along the whole front to destroy his manpower with heavy weapons. The #West will try to restore parity by supplying weapons and equipment to maximise the war prolongation and permanent damage to #Russia.

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📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Overview #Summary for the Morning of 16 Jun 2024; pub. 07:02📍

🗓 Last week was characterised by a specific proposal of the Supreme on the possible start of negotiations on the condition of AFU withdrawal from the new Russian territories, which Kiev and #NATO immediately rejected. Predicting such behaviour, Verkhovny's speech immediately said that next time the proposals would be on completely different terms to #Russia. The enemy and its handlers have once again demonstrated their lack of commitment.

🔹The draft communiqué of Zelensky's promoted #Ukraine summit in #Switzerland also does not contain any theses on ending the war, only general appeals.

🔹Meanwhile, Kiev continues to inflict military and economic damage on #Russia. This week, a massive raid on a military airfield in the #Rostov region with the simultaneous use of up to 70 AFU UAVs was indicative. The #Belgorod region is under constant attacks by all available means, and they target civilians and businesses. After the beginning of attacks on #Kharkov front, the AFU has drawn up reserves and, despite losses, still prevent us from creating a buffer zone.

🔹In the #Kursk direction, there are also daily enemy strikes on civilian infrastructure and civilians. The enemy is expecting our offensives on the #Sumy region and is evacuating in the border area.

🔹In general, at the front, our Army retains the initiative and forces the enemy to drain reserves and mobilise more citizens into the AFU. However, the full mobilisation potential still amounts to several million bayonets, even if this requires to lower the age limit.

🔹The RFAF are conducting offensives in the #Seversk and #Kurakhovo sections, at #ChasovYar, west of #Avdeyevka, and in the #Zaporozhye direction.

🔹The mathematics of war from the new DM with precise calculations and logically required actions has not yet reached all areas of Russian activity. Once again, strikes on the enemy's rear facilities are commented with the words "in response to", only in the third war year another oil depot in #Kiev is destroyed. Nevertheless, the promising Belousov-Dyumin team announced plans to develop the production of UAVs and trench EW equipment using the production capacities of the regions. Meanwhile, the enemy has long more than compensated the disparity in artillery shells by FPV drones with a repeater system, which multiplies the range.

🔹In general, the problematic issue remains the knocking out of our expensive air defence systems in the southern direction, for which, among other things, #US ATACMS missiles are being used. The version voiced by the Western media that such actions are aimed at advance preparation for the start of F-16s in Ukraine does not make sense. The Western analogue of FABs with ATACMS - JDAM is already being used more and more often by the AFU in the #Kharkov direction. The very fact of transferring F-16s to #Ukraine can by no means become a turning point, but it will allow Kiev to maintain the cumulative parity of all available forces and means on the front, which will prolong the war.

🔹An indicative moment was the reaction of the #US on the arrival of a detachment of Russian Northern Fleet ships in #Cuba. After numerous statements by our various speakers about readiness for the most decisive steps, Washington did not regard our visit as a threat during the Cuban missile crisis, although it sent its aviation and navy to accompany the actions of Russian sailors.

📌 The past week confirmed again the lack of intentions of #Kiev and the #West to negotiate, as well as the enemy's focus on prolonging the war as long as possible, despite the human, economic and territorial losses. The Russian Army retains the initiative, but due to the technological changes, our successes are tactical in nature, oriented on the exhaustion of the AFU military machine. Measures are being taken to bring RFAF to a modern technological level, but so far this is not enough to turn the situation around.

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