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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ€š Options for the AFU in #Bakhmut - Analysis by Military Chronicles⚑️

πŸ—“ On 20 and 21 April, reports emerged that Wagner PMC fighters, with fire support by the airborne troops, had approached the O-0506 route between #Bakhmut and Chasov Yar. After this, the position of the AFU in #Bakhmut could deteriorate considerably.

πŸ”ΉWhat is this Route and why is it so important?

Route O-0506 connected the western stronghold of the AFU in Chasovy Yar directly to the city. It passes through the village of #Khromovo and was used by the AFU directly from Chasov Yar to the western neighbourhoods of #Bakhmut. Prior to the advancement of the Wagner PMCs inside the city blocks, #Bakhmut could also be reached by another route - via the southwestern route T-0504, bypassing #Krasnoye.

Route O-0506 was the last relatively safe road through which supplies and reinforcements could be brought in and the wounded transported out.

πŸ”ΉWhat is happening in #Bakhmut now:

As the "Bandwagon" advanced deeper into #Bakhmut, fire control over the AFU supply routes intensified, with the result that Ukrainian forces began to lose up to 90% of the equipment and people sent to #Bakhmut not only from Chasov Yar, but also from #Konstantinovka, #Druzhkovka, and #Toretsk.

At the moment, the AFU retains control of no more than 10% of the city: Ukrainian troops are in the Novy and Cherema neighbourhoods, School No. 18 and defending from Chernyakhovsky Street in #Khromovo. "Orchestra" crushes the enemy from the north in the area of Metallurgov Boulevard and Roz Alley, in parallel - on the AFU units that are trying to leave the city in small groups in one or two vehicles. FAB-120/250 bombs with planning and correction modules (MPCMs) as well as Krasnopol guided artillery rounds are actively used against targets both in the immediate vicinity of #Artyomovsk and deep in the AFU defence - #Konstantinovka, #Druzhkovka and Chasov Yar. This further complicates and slows down the supply of the group, which cannot hold out without help.

πŸ”ΉWhat options do the AFU have?

The first option is to throw reinforcements into the city and either continue defending or cover the retreat. According to preliminary estimates, the AFU's total losses in killed, wounded, missing and prisoners of war both in and around #Bakhmut, including reinforcements destroyed almost every day, are as high as 650-730 per day.

To hold the city, the AFU is preparing to send the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and the reserve 117th Territorial Defense Brigade, prepared for a counterattack, to #Bakhmut. In the western quarters of the city, these troops should reinforce units of the AFU's 92nd Mechanized, whose losses are estimated at 65%.

The second option is to retreat on asphalt roads. Most roads between #Bakhmut and neighbouring towns are not only shelled by artillery "banding" and airborne troops, but also severely damaged. Some bridges and crossings cannot be crossed by heavy equipment. This means that on the other side retreating AFU units have to transfer to another vehicle. It is practically impossible to do this safely.

The third option is to retreat through the fields:

It rained almost all last week in #Bakhmut, and rain will continue to fall next week. This will make the fields impassable again. Even tanks, not to mention pickup trucks and other vehicles, will find it difficult to get through them quickly in such conditions. Any AFU equipment that gets stuck will almost instantly come under artillery fire and be disabled, and after that the Ukrainian military will have to overcome the five-kilometre stretch between Chasov Yar and #Bakhmut on foot.

The fourth option is a diversionary flank counterattack:

If the AFU command feels that control over #Bakhmut is finally being lost, 80,000-strong reserves from Ray-Aleksandrovka, #Konstantinovka, #Predtechino, #Nikolayevka and #Dzerzhinsk will probably be brought into the fight.

πŸ“œ Military Chronicles; 21 Apr 2023, 14:54

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Frontline #Summary for the Morning of 12 May 2023; pub. 08:01⚑️

πŸ”Ή In the
#Ugledar Section, the RF Armed Forces shelled #Novopol, #Novosyolka, #Vremevka, #Prechistovka, #Novoukrainka and the city itself. (Fig. 1)

πŸ”Ή On the #Donetsk Front, Russian forces supported by artillery carried out offensives near #Novomikhaylovka, within the city limits of #Maryinka and near #Avdeyevka. In the latter case, they changed the direction of attack from southwest to east from the area of Krutaya Balka. This has brought certain success, there is some progress.
πŸ”₯ Russian artillery hit #Pobeda, #Georgiyevka, #Nevelskoye, #Pervomayskoye, #Berdychi, #Novokalinovo, Nyu-York (#Novgorodskoye) and #Zheleznoye.
πŸ”₯ The AFU struck #Donetsk, #Vodyanyoye, and #Gorlovka. (Fig. 2)

πŸ”Ή The Wagner PMC continued assault operations in the southern, western and northern parts of #Bakhmut after shelling. No progress.
βž– The AFU attacked near #Khromovo.
πŸ”₯ The RF Armed Forces hit Belaya Gora, #Konstantinovka, #Stupochki, #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye), #ChasovYar, #Bogdanovka and Orekhovo-Vasilyevka.
πŸ”₯ Ukrainian artillery operated on #Kurdyumovka, #Kleshchiyevka and the positions of the Wagner PMC in #Bakhmut. (Fig. 3)

πŸ”Ή In the #Lugansk Direction, Russian troops attacked in #Serebryanskoye forestry from the direction of #Kuzmino.
βž– They also attempted, with artillery support, to advance towards #Torskoye, #Terny and #Stelmakhovka. Unsuccessfully.
πŸ”₯ Under fire the AFU positions in #Belogorovka, #Kislovka, #Masyutovka, #Dvurechnaya, #Novomlynsk, #Figolevka and Krasnoye Pervoye.
πŸ”₯ The Ukrainian army hit #Nikolayevka, #Pervomayskoye (not to be confused with the locality of the same name northeast of #Donetsk) and #Olshana. (Fig. 4)

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Situation in the #Soledar Direction until the End of 20 Jun 2023⚑️

πŸ”Ή Northeast of
#Bakhmut, attempts by formations of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade and the Territorial Defence to break through the Russians defences at the "Sacco and Vanzetti" - #Nikolayevka - #Yakovlevka line are continuing. The AFU have been conducting raids trying to cut into gaps between strongholds and minefields.

At the moment, the RF Armed Forces are successfully holding the lines. The enemy, not counting casualties, is pelting the frontline with cannon fodder, concentrating most of its efforts on #Yakovlevka.

Why this village? The road to #Bakhmut via #Soledar passes through #Yakovlevka. In the event of a breakthrough here, the AFU will cut the logistics junction and will be able to extend the offensive to the roads from #Tripolya and #Popasna.

In such a scenario, the Ukrainian formations will secure the conditions they need to launch a counterattack on #Bakhmut. To the west, a strike fist is already being concentrated. The 22nd, 42nd and 115th Mechanized Brigades, as well as the 21st Mechanized Brigade at the #Slavyansk - #Seversk line, have joined the brigades previously operating there.

In radio intercepts, members of the AFU report an imminent attack on 22 June. In confirmation of this, there is a massive check of communications and readiness for joint action in the formations on the front line.

πŸ“Œ There is no strategic point in an attack on #Bakhmut, except for information and psychological. But in the event of a coordinated attack along the #Belgorod and #Starobelsk directions, as well as near #Bakhmut, the AFU may attempt to break through the echeloned defenses in the LPR and DPR and cut off the RF Armed Forces' groupings at the junction of their areas of responsibility.

πŸ—Ί High Resolution: πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MAP

πŸ“œ RYBAR; 20 Jun 2023, 23:15

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Situation in the #Kherson Direction until 12:00 on 22 Sep 2023⚑️

πŸ”ΉIn the island zone of the
#Dnieper, the AFU continue their attempts to gain a foothold on the existing bridgehead. Russian troops are shelling the enemy's SRG concentration areas. However, despite the losses, the unit transfer does not stop.

β–ͺ️ Last night, the Russian artillery hit an observation post and ammo depot of the AFU's 131st Reconnaissance Battalion on #Kazatsky Island, killing 3 militants and wounding 4 others.

β–ͺ️ A boat was sent from #Nikolayevka to evacuate people, but it was destroyed by precise fire. However, already in the morning the command of the Omaha Tactical Group again deployed a SRG on the island.

β–ͺ️ At the same time, it is planned to send 100 people from the AFU's 129th Territorial Defence Brigade to the 131st Separate Brigade, as well as three 120-mm mortars, to strengthen the grouping at the #Olgovka - #Nikolayevka line.

β–ͺ️ Also, the β€œGrom” command carried out a rotation of advanced groups on #Alekseyevsky Island. 5 men from #Sadovoye were transferred there.

β–ͺ️ In addition, Russian troops destroyed a boat with AFU militants near #Kizomys.

❗️However, the AFU activity may increase in the near future. Since 15 Sep, marine units have been transferred from the #Dnepropetrovsk region through Krivoy Rog to #Nikolayev and #Kherson. During this time, 197 pieces of equipment passed through #Dnepropetrovsk, including BTR-70 and BTR-80, as well as armored combat vehicles "Humvee", "Kozak", "Kirpi", "Mastiff". In total, about 5,100 people arrived in this zone, which is actually the number of one brigade.

πŸ“Œ Given the sharp decline in activity at the #Vremyevka site, it is likely that one of the formations that took part in the battles near #Novodonetskoye is being transferred. And their appearance at #Kherson indicates a possible AFU Operation on the #Dnieper.

πŸ—Ί High Resolution: πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MAP

πŸ“œ RYBAR; 22 Sep 2023, 12:26

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Situation in the #Kherson Direction until 17:00 on 28 September 2023⚑️

πŸ”Ή Ukrainian formations
continue to accumulate forces, in parallel continuing attempts to gain a foothold on the #Dnieper islands.

β–ͺ️ The enemy landed another batch of militants in the northeastern part of #Alyoshkinsky Island. However, Russian troops observed these actions and struck at the place of their concentration. After that, the AFU evacuated the wounded by boat to #Nikolskoye village.

β–ͺ️ In the central part of #Pereyaslavsky Island, the RF Armed Forces worked on an observation post of Ukrainian formations, and also hit another boat with personnel that left #Nikolayevka village.

❗️The enemy also noted the intensity of the Russian aviation's use of guided bombs with UMPC modules. In recent days, the Russian Aerospace Forces have indeed carried out a series of precision strikes on AFU positions on the islands and the right bank of the #Dnieper, inflicting casualties on them. In addition, explosions were again heard at the #Kulbakino Airfield during the night.

πŸ“Œ Nevertheless, the Ukrainian command does not plan to abandon its plans yet, as evidenced by the arrival of new units in the #Nikolayev and #Kherson regions. And in #Nikolayev itself, a new round of mobilization has begun at all with the distribution of summonses on the street, which fully fits into the framework of the latest enemy activities in the south.

πŸ—Ί High Resolution: πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MAP

πŸ“ If you have any additional information on the situation, you want us to highlight your unit's successes - you can always write us in @rybar_feedback_bot. Anonymity is guaranteed!

πŸ“œ RYBAR; 28 Sep 2023, 17:22

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Situation in the #Kherson Direction until 12:00 on 30 September 2023⚑️

πŸ”Ή In the island Zone of the
#Dnieper, Ukrainian tactical groups (TGr) continue to consolidate on the islands and on the left bank. Units of the Normandy and Grom TGr have rotated forward groups on #Alekseyevsky and #Aleshkinsky islands.

β–ͺ️ The main events were unfolded on #Kazatsky Island, where the AFU began to equip positions near the riverbed. However, a Russian reconnaissance group conducted a successful sortie on #Kazatsky, taking two militants prisoner.

β–ͺ️ The rest of the 131st Reconnaissance Battalion escaped to the northern part of the island and took up a circular defence. The evacuation group transferred reinforcements by boat, and on the way back to #Nikolayevka was sunk by artillery.

❗️The activity of the AFU on the islands against the background of strengthening the grouping of troops in this direction is not surprising. By the time the Marine Corps is deployed to force the #Dnieper, the AFU must have a firm bridgehead on the left bank.

πŸ“Œ Therefore, the intensification of fighting on the islands is logical. By the way, in the last two days there has been no movement of columns from east to west.This means that the redeployment of the Marine Corps grouping has been completed.

πŸ—Ί High Resolution: πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MAP

πŸ“œ RYBAR; 30 Sep 2023, 12:24

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈSituation in the #Kherson Direction until 16:00 on 8 October 2023⚑️

πŸ—“ On the night of 8 October
, the rotation of the forward squads of the tactical group "Omaha" on Kazatsky Island was carried out. A SRG arrived by boat from #Nikolayevka together with supplies and ammunition to the northern part of #Kazatskoye.

β–ͺ️ The AFU carried out similar actions on the islands of Alyoshkinsky and Melky near the railway bridge and Cossack Camps. Two speedboats delivered ammunition and construction materials.

β–ͺ️ At the #Antonovsky bridge, the AFU sabotage groups both held positions under the crossing and continue to hold them. From time to time the AFU SRGs carry out sorties to #Alyoshki, using the bridge as a cover.

❗️At the moment, looking at the enemy’s actions, there is a certain change in the conduct of the battle along the #Dnieper, namely, preparation for an attack is visible. The main efforts in the island zone are concentrated on strengthening already occupied positions without attempting to move inland.

β–ͺ️ The number of artillery and FPV drone strikes on forward areas has increased dramatically. Along the line of contact, the number of counterbattery weapons has multiplied. Calculations from the Cobra radar alone haunt the Russian Armed Forces in the Golaya Pristan sector.

πŸ“Œ Another sign of the forthcoming intensification near Kherson is the intensity of shelling of rear areas with cluster shells and missiles from aircraft. As a rule, such intensification in the rear is part of the fire training aimed at disrupting the communication and supply system of the grouping on the front line.

πŸ—Ί High Resolution: πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MAP

πŸ“œ RYBAR; 8 Oct 2023, 16:37

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Frontline #Summary for the Morning of 9 December 2023; pub. 10:15⚑️

πŸ”ΉIn the
#Kherson-#Crimea Direction, in #Krynki, the fighting took on a counterattack character. Even with the RF Armed Forces dominating due to the support of long range weapons.
πŸ’₯ Ukrainian positions in #Kherson, #Tyaginka, #Nikolayevka and #Berislav are under attack.
πŸ’₯ Russian positions, in Golaya Pristan, #Alyoshki, #Poyma and #Peschanovka.

πŸ”ΉIn the #Zaporozhye Direction, the AFU managed to stabilise the situation west of #Rabotino village through counterattacks.⚠️ The RF Armed Forces, in turn, are trying to pressurise from the direction of #Verbovoye and #Novofyodorovka.⚠️ The second section is particularly important, as the fighting is taking place along the strategic route N-08.
πŸ’₯ The AFU is under fire in #Kamenskoye, #Novoandreyevka, #Novovodanilovka, #Charovnoye and #Malinovka.
πŸ’₯ Ukrainian artillery worked on Russian positions in #Zherebyanka, #Kopani, #Ilchenkovo, #Novoprokopovka, #Verbovoye and #Novofyodorovka.

πŸ”ΉOn the #Donetsk Front, the RF Armed Forces, supported by long range weapons, carried out assault operations near #Novomikhaylovka, in #Maryinka, in the direction of #Ostrogo (this is a new active section), in the area of #Pervomayskoye, #Tonenkoye, in the industrial zone on the southeastern approaches to #Avdeyevka, northeast of the city near the Coke Plant and near #Steponoye (not to be confused with the settlements of the same name in the Zaporozhye and Ugledar directions).⚠️ The frontline did not change significantly. The assault groups of the RF Armed Forces advanced⚠️ in the direction of the AFU-controlled #Novobakhmutovka (another locality with the same name to the east behind the Russian forces).
πŸ’₯ Ukrainian positions in #Konstantinovka (not to be confused with the settlement of the same name southwest of Bakhmut), #Pobeda, #Georgiyevka, #Karlovo, #Berdychi and Nyu-York (#Novgorodskoye) are under fire.
πŸ’₯ RF Armed Forces, in #Aleksandrovka and the village of #Krasnogorovka.

πŸ”ΉIn the #Bakhmut Direction, Russian troops, supported by artillery, attacked near #Andreyevka and northeast of #Kleshcheyevka. They also tried to advance from the direction of #Bakhmut towards #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). After shelling, they conducted assaults in the area of #Bogdanovka.⚠️ No breakthroughs.

πŸ—Ί Oleg Tsarov's Map Collection addedπŸ‘‡

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Front #Summary for 14 Dec 2023 by 19:54⚑️

πŸ”ΉIn
#Kherson Direction, the AFU continue to hold a foothold in #Krynki. This issue was even voiced today on the hotline with the President. According to him, the Russian command has decided to withdraw from part of the village in order to protect personnel, as the AFU has concentrated artillery strikes on this narrow section. Moreover, on his personal instructions, the General Staff is in no hurry to push the enemy out of #Krynki: β€œit is to our advantage that they thoughtlessly send further personnel there.” Nevertheless, our army continues to target boats on the #Dnieper with reserves and supplies, controlling the number of enemy on our shore.

πŸ”ΉIn #Zaporozhye Direction, despite bad weather, with difficulties for drone pilots on both sides, our army is carrying out powerful attacks on the #Orekhov section. Near #Verbovoye, our military managed to push the AFU out of a tactically important position. And they are moving on, as reported from the field. At #Rabotino the AFU tried to counterattack. Ours not only repulsed the attack, but also advanced themselves in the return battle. Near #Novofyodorovka are battles for the heights. We are trying to retake positions that we were forced to give up in the summer.

πŸ”ΉIn #SouthDonetsk Direction, our forces are fighting on the outskirts of #Novomikhaylovka. They are moving from the south and southeast. After the liberation of this settlement, we will have the opportunity to cut off the supply routes of the AFU grouping in #Ugledar. Today, #Pobeda is also making progress. Our units are trying to build on their success in #Maryinka. They are also fighting in the area of the #Maryinka Reservoir, with the prospect of an offensive near #Georgiyevka in the direction of #Kurakhovo.

πŸ”ΉIn #Donetsk Direction, on the southern #Avdeyevka flank, our army is fighting directly within the city. It is noted from the field that the AFU groups defend the city powerful. At the same time, their attempts to push our forces back at least from the city limits are unsuccessful. Here, as on the #Zaporozhye front, ours managed to push back the enemy with a retaliatory attack. On the northern flank, our units have entrenched in the forest belt north of #Stepovoye and on the first street. The counterattacks of the AFU were unsuccessful here as well. Our military continue their methodical advance northwards towards #Ocheretino along the railway line. Coke Plant is also facing tough battles.

πŸ”ΉIn #Bakhmut Direction, north of #Soledar, our fighters pushed the AFU back near #Razdolovka. They continue levelling the #Nikolayevka - #Razdolovka - #Vesyoloye line. Northwest of the city, we are fighting on the outskirts of #Bogdanovka, which is a large key fortification on the way to Chasov Yar. Fierce battles are ongoing for the #Grigorovka - #Bogdanovka motorway. In the south, heavy fighting is underway. Our forces have extended their zone of control in #Kleshcheyevka a little further. There are clashes near #Andreyevka and to the south, though so far without any changes in the frontline.

πŸ”ΉIn #Svatovo Direction, without changes but also heavy fighting. Attempts of the AFU to counterattack near #Torskoye ledge and in the area of #Kremennaya failed. Fighting continues in #Sinkovka and near #Petropavlovka, with no clear advantage for either side.

⚠️ #Maryinka is operationally conquered, but not within the full geographical limits. Therefore the contradictory reports.

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πŸ“‹πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Two Majors #Report #Summary for the Morning of 6 May 2024; pub. 06:51πŸ“

βš“οΈNear #Crimea, for the first time in a long time, there are reports of the use of drone boats by the enemy. Up to 5 unmanned AFU boats were destroyed off the western coast, the target of which were military boats in one of the bays near the village of #Chernomorskoye. There were no casualties on our side.

πŸ”ΉIn the #Kherson direction, the RFAF are increasingly active in using FABs with UMPC on the enemy's shore, destroying concentrations of enemy forces. The enemy is responding with artillery and many drones. Two cases of the AFU using ammunition that causes severe burns in the victims have been reported, after which the upper layers of the victims' soft tissues are covered with a "wooden crust". Military doctors argue about the nature of the burns, while fighters from the field call the ammunition "napalm". The enemy maintains the presence of small groups of infantry in #Krynki.

πŸ”ΉOn the #Zaporozhye front, the RFAF continue their assault operations in #Rabotino, reporting dense enemy artillery work. Northwest of Verbovoye, the enemy on a IFV tried to deliver an AFU assault group, but was covered by our fire. Several enemy attacks were repelled.

πŸ”ΉOn the #Vremyevka ledge, fighting in #Urozhaynoye and at #Staromayorskoye, our troops are reported to have advanced 1km northwards east of #Urozhaynoye.

πŸ”ΉIn the #SouthDonetsk direction (or #Ugledar DIR), the RFAF are fighting in #Krasnogorovka near the industrial zone after planting a flag at the Refractory Plant. Fighting in #Georgiyevka and near the eastern outskirts of #Paraskoviyevka.

πŸ”ΉIn the #Pokrovskoye direction (west of #Avdeyevka), there is fighting in #Netaylovo. To the west of #Berdychi, the RFAF are conducting an offensive in the #Novoprovskoye area. After the success in #Arkhangelskoye, our troops are advancing towards #Kalinovo.

🎯 In the #Kharkov and #Sumy directions, there are constant strikes on enemy positions, and the X-51 Lancet UAV is increasingly being used to target AFU armoured vehicles. In the rear areas of these regions, enemy facilities are also under constant attack.

πŸ’₯In the #Belgorod region, Stary Khutor in the Valuysky urban district was shelled, and #Shebekino was struck by an AFU UAV. The #Bryansk region reported shelling in the area of the #Lomakovka village in Starodubsky district.

πŸ’₯To attack the peaceful population of the #DPR, the enemy used 75 different types of ammunition, and two civilians were wounded in the village of #Nikolayevka as a result of bombs dropped from an enemy drone.

🎬#Kherson direction - FAB with UMPC is a strange item.
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