📋🇷🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺 On the Prospects for the Participation of #EU Countries in the War in #Ukraine📍

🔹The issue of open participation of soldiers of European #NATO countries in the war on the territory of #Ukraine is being actively pushed by the anti-people governments of the #EU countries at the highest level, despite rather poorly organised opposition and protests. #France and #Germany are the actual driving forces in this situation, although high officials are trying to accustom their population to this gradually.

🔹Against the background of the build-up of #NATO troops and infrastructure on the eastern flank and multinational exercises involving tens of thousands of soldiers, the construction of a military network is intensifying factories and supply chains. At the same time, only the #US and #England are interested in such actions, and military-industrial corporations are the beneficiaries.

🔹But at present, the same #France, led by the gerontophile Macron, has in its Army about 200 thousand people and just over 200 Leclerc tanks (for comparison: for the “counter-offensive” of the AFU last year, #NATO supplied a total of about 500 units of armored vehicles, in mostly Soviet). That is, for now a separate army

🔹Although Macron has already been taking measures to increase the combat readiness of the French army for a couple of years. Yesterday, data leaked online about the revision of the military doctrine of Paris to confront an enemy “who can compare with its army in firepower”

🔹The unthinkability of war against #Russia or #Germany is eliminated...by lack of education. 80 percent of young Germans are convinced that the #US won World War II, forgetting who took #Berlin. Hence the relatively “calm” public reaction to the leaked negotiations between German officers about the supply of up to 100 Taurus missiles, including for the destruction of the Crimean Bridge.

🔹However, #NATO countries are objectively not ready for a protracted war with #Russia on the territory of #Ukraine, even if we exclude the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow. Objectively, there will not be enough armored vehicles and artillery ammunition. Although our principles in the field of nuclear deterrence allow us to strike when “the enemy’s impact on critically important state or military facilities, the failure of which would lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces' or 'aggression against Russia using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.'

🔹Against the backdrop of the #EU countries actually preparing for open participation in the conflict in #Ukraine, we can say that Russia has 1.5-2 years before “closing the Ukrainian issue.” The production of weapons and military equipment in the #West has not yet been launched. Because the war benefits Western arms corporations and it is unlikely that any of them will want to reforge their swords into something else, cheaper.

🔹Of course, there is a well-founded point of view that the globalists intend to drive the peoples of #Europe into a frenzy in the face of global meat grinder and Armageddon, and then sharply offer a way out in the form of the loss of a significant part of freedoms in exchange for peace.

⭐️ But so far all the plans of politicians, their agreements and joint statements always end in a bloodbath.

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📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 1 May 2024; pub. 07:01📍

🔹The Russian Army retains the initiative all along the front, due to the reduced AFU troops in exhausting battles and the delayed #US aid release. At the time of writing this, our pilots from some directions report the absence of SAMs. The solution of the AFU's logistical task of delivering aid from #Poland and #Germany has already begun.

🔹New are the regular strikes on #Crimea from the #Kherson region by ATACMS with a range of 300 km and cluster warheads against airfields and air defence. The AFU is able to launch at least 15 missiles at a time, indicating that it retains MLRS installations of the HIMARS or M270 type. The AFU is solving the task of inflicting a significant damage on #Russia on the eve of the inauguration of the Supreme and Victory Day, as the front situation will not be reversed now.

🔹#Pokrovskoye (west of #Avdeyevka) has become a new direction of the Russian offensive. In heavy bloody battles a number of settlements have been taken, the breakthrough of the enemy's defence by 5 km and the formation of the #Ocheretino ledge became significant. At the same time, we are not yet talking about a strategic offensive with deep frontal breakthroughs. Such manoeuvres are extremely difficult to change the nature of the war.

🔹Thus, on the direction to #ChasovYar, the RFAF broke through to the eastern outskirts, using close to the front aviation, under cover of massive artillery fire. But to develop success under the daily use of hundreds of FPV-drones by the AFU is extremely difficult. Thus, the real grinding down of Ukrainian reserves, thrown under numerous Russian FABs with UMPC, has begun. By the way, our aviators report the arrival of new missiles from the industry, which is working, unlike the Ukrainian one.

🔹The AFU is objectively experiencing personnel difficulties. Despite mass mobilisation and attempts to get recruits out of Europe, there are constant complaints about the lack of manpower. Even with sufficient recruitment, the formation of new units will take time, and hastily prepared mobilised who were immediately transferred to the front are unlikely to become effective combat units. Ukrainian servicemen who have fled the front are increasingly asking for help, at least with advice.

🔹In the Russian Army, changes in bureaucratic procedures are extremely difficult. The strike by the AFU with a multitude of homemade aircraft-type drones on the airfield in the #Krasnodar region was indicative. The storage of the much-loved UMPC was apparently not carried out in fortified bunkers. The enemy continues to try to destroy our oil refineries. At night it was reported about a strike on a facility in the #Ryazan region. The above facts point to the still focal nature of our air defence, given the depth of UAV penetrations.

🔹The news about the arrest of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, which was greeted with joy at the front, is gradually fading away. Nevertheless, this event shows that the country's top military-political leadership understands the complex problems in the MoD.

🔹May-June is predicted to bring intensification of military front operations. After the inauguration and seating in the government, the presidential election period will be over, and landmark decisions cannot be ruled out. Many call #Kharkov and #Sumy directions the most probable directions of RFAF strikes, but how to hide the armada of personnel and equipment from satellites and enemy agents remains a mystery. Nevertheless, #Kharkov begins the actual evacuation. First of all, fat purses and means of production are being taken out, preparations for the reception of hundreds of thousands of refugees have begun, and Kiev has turned to international organisations for help behind the scenes.

📌 At the moment, the advancement of the Russian Army on the front several hundred m a day, draconian mobilisation and the supply by the West do not favour a quick end to the war.

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📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary #Overview for the Morning of 23 June 2024; pub. 07:01📍

🗓 The past week has been characterised by a blatant war escalation on the part of the enemy. Strikes are being carried out on oil refineries and attempts are being made to strike nuclear facilities (#Kursk NPP). According to received info, Western weapons are being used not only in #Belgorod, but also in #Rostov and #Kursk regions. The lack of promotion of this info by official resources (only missiles shot down are added to the daily MoD summary) indicates Moscow's reluctance to go down the path of a direct or asymmetric response, which can be explained by the Supreme's trip to #NorthKorea and @Vietnam against the background of #NATO's undisguised preparations for war with #Russia. That is, we still need time to prepare.

🔹#NATO, in turn, is increasing the pace of military preparations, also counting on a period of 2 to 5 years before a full-scale direct confrontation. These terms are conditioned both by the need to establish military production of the same SAMs and artillery shells, and by the preparation of mobilisation measures, which are already included in the legislative acts and mobilisation plans of the #US, #Germany and even the Baltic States. Until then, the role of a suicidal battering ram is fulfilled by #Ukraine, which is regarded by Washington only as a testing ground for arms.

🔹Kiev is mobilising the population, not hesitating to expose the TCC itself as a lightning rod from Zelensky: it is important to keep the powerless masses in control, even at the expense of long-term prospects, which Bankova certainly does not live by.

🔹In the MoD is a demonstrative dismantling of the toxic legacy of the previous failed team. Belousov's showy trips and informational accents are aimed at restoring the confidence of the military class in the leadership. A striking event was the presentation of awards to the Wagners by the deputy defence minister, especially on the eve of the anniversary of the Prigozhin riot, which even now is still referred to by many as the "March of Justice", the demand for which is extremely high in our country.

🔹On the front, the situation has not changed much, although the Russian Army retains the initiative in most areas and is really grinding down the enemy's manpower. The enemy is gradually finding resistance to FABs and UMPCs, so the RFAF are increasingly using the latest UMPCs, which can be launched not only from aircraft, but also from MLRSs.

🔹A problem remains countering the destruction of our air defence systems, for which the AFU staged a targeted hunt, sparing Western missiles. In addition, the enemy is able to launch dozens of aircraft-type UAVs every day; our burning oil refineries show that there is still a lot of work to neutralise this threat. It also cannot be said that problems with communications, electronic warfare, transport, and timely failure of material assets have been fully resolved.

🔹The political leadership does not yet intend to sound the alarm bells and use the full potential of the entire nation, which, apparently, is due to the forecasts about the long-term nature of the war, the need to preserve social stability, as well as the economic potential. As we understand, it seems inexpedient to spend this resource now on #Ukraine.

🔹However, there are excesses in preserving the people's tranquility: the same governor of the Belgorod region, during another personal visit to the border regions, pointed out the actual need for voluntary evacuation of the elderly and children, stressing that the federal centre had provided resources for this purpose.

📌 Thus, the Russian Army continues offensive actions at the front, trying to conserve personnel and reserves in offensive battles, while the defence establishment is busy eliminating deficiencies within itself and adjusting to the efficiency of the military machine, linking the work of the rear and the front to ensure a long war.

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