🇨🇳🇮🇳 China vs India – how do two countries try to outplay each other in the Indo-Pacific?
Part 1 - Necklace of Diamonds

The bilateral relations between China and India have witnessed a significant deterioration in recent times, marking a troubling phase in their long-standing history. Several factors, including territorial disputes and economic confrontation, have contributed to this worsening dynamic, leading to heightened tensions and strained diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants.

So, in order to outplay one another politically and economically China and India have two different strategies, aimed at encircling the region. In this post we touch upon Indian program called “Necklace of Diamonds”.

🔻 What is it?

The “Necklace of Diamonds” strategy is a phrase first used by India’s former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh in August 2011. He used the term to refer to India’s efforts to protect its interests, in response to China’s String of Pearls Strategy, which will be discussed in the next post.

It involves putting in place a competitive network of alliances – with military, security and economic angles.

🔻 What are the key destinations?

The key countries, that India engages with, are shown on the map. Those include Iran, Mongolia, Indonesia etc. With every depicted state India has joint projects, agreements or just diplomatically engages with them in one form or another. However, bigger portion of attention is focused on infrastructure – similarly to China.

🔻 The main projects are:

🇸🇬 Changi Naval Base in Singapore. With agreement with Singapore in 2018 India secured the Indian Navy presence at the base. This allows the naval vessels to avail logistical support such as refueling and replenishing supplies.

🇮🇩 Sabang Port in Indonesia. In 2018 India got the military access to the port which is located right at the entrance of Malacca Strait. However, progress on building the port has been slow and talks have been on for some years now, so right now there are no results.

🇴🇲 Duqm Port in Oman. This port is located between Pakistan and Djibouti, where two important strategic Chinese facilities are situated. It connects Asia to Africa and Europe. Despite the fact that India gained access to the port, Oman currently is one of the main Chinese investment destinations, so it is very hard for New Delhi to compete with Beijing.

🇮🇷 Chabahar Port in Iran. India has served as the primary investor in Chabahar port, as New Delhi sees the port as a way to access Afghan and Central Asian markets without relying on Pakistan’s land routes. At the same time, China has been growing increasingly influential in Iran, seeking to gain access to critical natural resources and shipping routes.

🔻 What's in the future?

Despite some success, overall Indian strategy was not implemented in an effective manner. And there are several reasons for this.

1️⃣ China is increasing its economic influence all over the world, including countries, which are a part of Necklace of Diamonds. It is very hard to compete with Chinese money.

2️⃣ Lack of vision. The “Necklace of Diamonds” Strategy is not an officially promulgated strategy, but rather a phrase used to interpret certain government policies by commentators. This, in my opinion, does have a negative impact on the results of this project.

3️⃣ Lack of investment. China’s investments in its String of Pearls exceed the investments made by India for its Necklace of Diamonds. Hence China’s allies are likely to be stronger than India’s.

In case India does solve the issues above, the strategy may have some more positive results. However, with China engaging countries in its long-term development strategies, like BRI, New Delhi will still face critical difficulties.

#China #India

@asianomics

🇮🇳 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇯🇴 🇮🇱 🇪🇺 ⛴ 🛤 💸 ⚒ 🎯 ☠️ ⏭ 🐣INDIA – MIDDLE EAST – EUROPE ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (IMEC) DEATH BEFORE BIRTH🇮🇳 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇯🇴 🇮🇱 🇪🇺 ⛴ 🛤 💸 ⚒ 🎯 ☠️ ⏭ 🐣

Indian news media is currently very excited about being involved in the construction of the India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a American sponsored project that they see as rivalling the Belt and Road initiative in which China is said to be investing one trillion dollars of otherwise useless fiat currency into in order to connect China with the rest of the world. Politically, it is very attractive. It requires in India, itself, only a bit of port modernization and the laying of an under water pipeline and communications cable to the United Arab Emirates. From there, a railroad is to be built through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to the Mediterranean Sea where water transport will once again take over the shipping of goods to Italy and France. Geographically, the rail line will be short. Moreover, to the joy of the Indians, the Americans, and the Europeans, it will avoid Chinese financed projects, as well as avoid countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. This is especially satisfying, as the afore-mentioned nations are countries which, for one reason or another, the Americans, Europeans, and Indians either dislike or do not hold in high respect.

On close inspection, though, what is clear is that this is political spectacle and is not an economically feasible project that has undergone careful planning. The transportation costs compared to shipping through the Suez Canal will certainly have to be higher because goods will have to be transferred from sea transport to rail and then back to sea transport. Also, shipping overland by rail is, on a per kilometer basis always significantly more expensive than shipping over water directly from seaport to seaport. Moreover, transferring goods from one mode of transportation to another eats up time, so it is unlikely shipping times will differ significantly between the two routes, if at all. Moreover, due to its power to set fees for transiting the Suez Canal, actual control over success or failure will be in Egypt's hands and it will be in Egypt's best interests for the plan to fail.

Politicians love showing off and grandstanding and can easily be deceived on this account. This is just another example.

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ There are no Friends - We are Alone⚡️

🔸 Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on Moscow's western and eastern "Partners":

🔹 Today's approval by the #EU of a long-term budget assistance program for Kiev (€50 billion for 4 years), announced by the head of the European Council Charles Michel, is important because it once again shows the true value of hopes for any "partners" in the West.

🔹 No "Friend of Russia" Orban (who promised to veto the allocation of funds) ultimately did not help. First of all, because Orban is not a "Friend of Russia". Orban is a typical Hungarian politician who heads a country that is a member of #NATO. It is absolutely natural that in the long-term bargaining he chose the most profitable option for himself and for Budapest, having managed to get solid preferences from Moscow in exchange for loud and, as it turned out, completely empty statements.

🔹 Before that, it was the same story with "Friend Recep." There were also a lot of predictions that Ankara would never let #Sweden join #NATO for the sake of partnership with Moscow. As a result, the #US offered good conditions, and Erdogan willingly sold this partnership, and not for the first (and probably not for the last) time.

🔹 All this is a good lesson for the future, including the near future, which will come after the #US presidential election. A lot of "experts" are trying to push the thesis that now, in principle, you can do nothing - Trump will come and hand over the Ukrainians. Such "analytics" is extremely dangerous, because it works perfectly and creates a very cozy feeling that "everything will pass by itself."

🔹 It won't work. It will no longer be possible to "roll back" the fundamental decision on the destruction of #Russia, and they will not give it. The #West needs Moscow to lose, and the #East (represented by #India, #China and the "Gulf" Monarchies) needs it not to win. No Trump will change this course, and he will not want to change it.

🔹 Let me remind you that it was with Trump in April 2018 that the Russian Federation had the toughest confrontation in #Syria. And if elected, which will be accompanied by a deep internal crisis in the #US, nothing will prevent him from escalating around #Ukraine, much more serious than the one that Washington is implementing today.

🔹 But, unfortunately, stepping on the same rake is our tradition. It didn't work out with Erdogan - it will work out with Orban. Orban threw it - well, Trump certainly won't let you down. This thought is much less painful than the understanding that no one but Us needs Victory, and we can only rely on our own strength, and not on the collapse of the #EU, nor the collapse of the dollar or the fall of an asteroid on the White House.

📌 But it is unlikely that conclusions will be drawn. So even Erdogan and Orban will try to sell themselves to #Russia as a "Reliable Ally" more than once, and lobbyists in high #Moscow offices will certainly find an excuse for them and help them carry out a new deal, as a result of which we will once again be made fools of.

📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel

t.me/sitreports /@voenkorKotenok/#ass/
Join SITREP🔺Map Reports - Top Videos - Analyses

🇮🇳🇷🇺 India Resumes Oil Imports from Russia

Indian Oil Corporation has reinstated its procurement of Russian crude oil, facilitated by tankers operated by PAO Sovcomflot.

According to vessel tracking data, the Suezmax tanker Vladimir Tikhonov discharged approximately 1 million barrels of Urals crude at Paradip port on Thursday. This marks the first instance of a vessel owned by a sanctioned Russian tanker company delivering crude since the SCF Baltica unloaded fuel oil near Sikka in Gujarat state last week.

Kpler reports indicate that India's daily crude oil imports from Russia surged to over 1.9 million barrels in April, reaching the highest level since July. Both Urals and Sokol supplies witnessed a significant increase compared to the previous month. Conversely, imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, India's second and third largest oil suppliers, saw reductions.

Moreover, at least five Sovcomflot tankers transporting Urals have designated India as their destination for this month.

#India #Russia #oil
@songofoil