⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis - Russian Armed Forces hit Ukraine's Energy System on 15 Nov 2022⚡️
🔎 Rybar's team continues its analysis of the consequences of a systemic fire attack on Ukraine's energy system.
#Kiev said today's raid was the largest such attack since the start of the SMO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities.
We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, with each successive raid resulting in increasingly grave consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is exactly what today's events have demonstrated:
▪️ Strikes on the #Zmiev thermal power plant in #Chuguev district temporarily completely de-energised the entire #Kharkov region.
▪️ Strikes on facilities in #Kiev led to massive overloads in the power grid and tripping of emergency frequency overload automatics, which was perfectly visible in the footage of pulsating power on and off.
▪️ Repeated strikes on the #Zhytomyr 330 substation resulted in power outages in this regional centre and areas around it.
▪️ Voltage surges and temporary power outages were reported in western regions of Ukraine after repeated strikes on the Lvov-South 330 substation in Lvov Region and the #Kovel 330 substation in #Volyn Region.
🔻 For the first time, #Moldova also experienced the consequences of Russian missile strikes: paradoxically, they were the consequence of the policies of the authorities themselves in #Chisinau.
➖ Restrictions of gas supply to #Transnistria led to decrease of generation of the Moldavian state district power station that with its capacity stabilized the situation in the south of #Odessa region and fed the energy deficit of #Moldova.
➖ Due to reduced capacity and increased consumption from Ukraine, exacerbated by a possible impact on the 330 substation in #Artsyz, an automatic protection was triggered at the TPP. The plant switched to self-powered operation, which caused consumers in Moldova and Transnistria to be disconnected.
➖ Also, a section of the 750kV high voltage transit line in #Romania was disconnected, which may indirectly indicate a possible short circuit from the 750kV switchgear of the South Ukraine NPP.
🔻 The lack of objective data from most of the hit locations made it impossible to determine exactly which elements of the energy facilities were targeted in each attack.
However, dense black plumes could be seen in photos and videos from the arrival areas. This indirectly indicates that it is highly likely that the strikes were again directed at power and automatic transformers rather than general control stations (GCPs).
🩸 Their preservation would once again allow Ukrainian power producers to reassemble emergency circuits and eliminate damaged equipment in a relatively short period of time. Yes, it will cause even more severe restrictions, but power supply to consumers will be restored.
The absence of strikes on the General Control Stations reduces the impact on the Ukrainian energy system, although even then its resilience drops with each attack.
t.me/sitreports / t.me/rybar/41185 /#ene/
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🔎 Rybar's team continues its analysis of the consequences of a systemic fire attack on Ukraine's energy system.
#Kiev said today's raid was the largest such attack since the start of the SMO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities.
We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, with each successive raid resulting in increasingly grave consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is exactly what today's events have demonstrated:
▪️ Strikes on the #Zmiev thermal power plant in #Chuguev district temporarily completely de-energised the entire #Kharkov region.
▪️ Strikes on facilities in #Kiev led to massive overloads in the power grid and tripping of emergency frequency overload automatics, which was perfectly visible in the footage of pulsating power on and off.
▪️ Repeated strikes on the #Zhytomyr 330 substation resulted in power outages in this regional centre and areas around it.
▪️ Voltage surges and temporary power outages were reported in western regions of Ukraine after repeated strikes on the Lvov-South 330 substation in Lvov Region and the #Kovel 330 substation in #Volyn Region.
🔻 For the first time, #Moldova also experienced the consequences of Russian missile strikes: paradoxically, they were the consequence of the policies of the authorities themselves in #Chisinau.
➖ Restrictions of gas supply to #Transnistria led to decrease of generation of the Moldavian state district power station that with its capacity stabilized the situation in the south of #Odessa region and fed the energy deficit of #Moldova.
➖ Due to reduced capacity and increased consumption from Ukraine, exacerbated by a possible impact on the 330 substation in #Artsyz, an automatic protection was triggered at the TPP. The plant switched to self-powered operation, which caused consumers in Moldova and Transnistria to be disconnected.
➖ Also, a section of the 750kV high voltage transit line in #Romania was disconnected, which may indirectly indicate a possible short circuit from the 750kV switchgear of the South Ukraine NPP.
🔻 The lack of objective data from most of the hit locations made it impossible to determine exactly which elements of the energy facilities were targeted in each attack.
However, dense black plumes could be seen in photos and videos from the arrival areas. This indirectly indicates that it is highly likely that the strikes were again directed at power and automatic transformers rather than general control stations (GCPs).
🩸 Their preservation would once again allow Ukrainian power producers to reassemble emergency circuits and eliminate damaged equipment in a relatively short period of time. Yes, it will cause even more severe restrictions, but power supply to consumers will be restored.
The absence of strikes on the General Control Stations reduces the impact on the Ukrainian energy system, although even then its resilience drops with each attack.
t.me/sitreports / t.me/rybar/41185 /#ene/
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MAP:
Strikes on Ukraine's Energy System - 15 Nov 2022
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦📜 @Rybar on the Importance of the #Volyn and #Lvov Regions⚡️
With the withdrawal of RF forces from #Kiev and other regions in northern and northeastern #Ukraine, strikes against facilities in #Westukraine have all but ceased.
Yes, power infrastructure is 👉 occasionally hit, but the effect is getting smaller each time because of the long pauses between strikes.
The current situation has enabled the transit of weapons, ammunition, equipment, fuel, food and medical supplies, from #Poland and other countries through #Westukraine.
♦️How is the Process organised?
For the past months, trains from Europe have been passing through the railway stations in #Kovel and #Lvov on an almost daily basis. In these cities, incoming arms and fuel are accumulated and distributed by direction.
And while previously the Ukrainian leadership complied with security and camouflage requirements, sending important convoys mainly at night, now all convoys move freely and during the day.
At the same time, the diversification of modes of delivery continues by using highways and motorways to transport cargoes of various purposes from Polish, Lithuanian and German ports.
♦️ What about Airbases and Airfields?
The airport in the Polish #Rzeszow city is still the main hub for the transit of Western-made weapons to #Ukraine. A string of heavy transport planes of the NATO bloc regularly fly from the US and European countries to #Poland.
However, the absence of any threat to military facilities in #Westukraine has allowed the AFU to use existing airfields and airports unhindered not only for tactical aviation, but also for transport aircraft as the AN-26s.
During the last few weeks Ukrainian transport aircrafts An-26 with military cargoes have been flying almost daily to #Lutsk airfield of the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade and to the airport of #Lvov. They turn off their transponders before entering Ukrainian airspace.
♦️Why risk sending by Air what can be sent by Trains and Convoys?
Planes are less capable of carrying - they can't carry at once what trains and convoys of trucks can carry. But they are more advantageous for faster delivery of ammunition and transportation of personnel.
According to some reports, the 204th TA Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force is repairing and refurbishing combat aircraft, and in #Lvov some types of artillery and tank armament. An-26 transports are transporting parts, spare parts and units, which are required to be delivered immediately.
♦️Why are there no Strikes against them?
As with the airfield in #Mirgorod, cruise missile strikes on the bases are effectively useless: by the time the Kalibras reach the western regions, all aircraft are gone, and strikes by bombers or artillery are impossible at this stage for the obvious reasons of #Ukraine's still active air defence and distance from the frontline.
♦️What about a possible Offensive?
Although Kiev considers an offensive in this direction from #Belarus unlikely, they are preparing for various scenarios - up to and including an attempt to cut the supply line in #Lvov and other regions.
The importance of the territories of western #Ukraine in the current conflict is invaluable to the AFU. Everything given by the West, a large part of the repair and recovery bases, arsenals and logistics hubs are stationed or pass through here.
And their safety is a priority. If a month ago there were about 500 people in the territory of #Kovel and #Lutsk, mostly members of the military defence forces, now their number reaches 2 thousand people from various formations.
Sources say that separate units of the 28th Mechanized Brigade, the 100th Territorial Defence Brigade, the Border Guard Sercice, as well as nationalist movements, including the Ichkerian group and the Turkish Bozkurt, are deployed near #Kovel. This does not include the grouping in the #Lvov region.
So there is no point in hoping for an easy ride here.
t.me/sitreports / t.me/rybar/42395 /#ass/
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With the withdrawal of RF forces from #Kiev and other regions in northern and northeastern #Ukraine, strikes against facilities in #Westukraine have all but ceased.
Yes, power infrastructure is 👉 occasionally hit, but the effect is getting smaller each time because of the long pauses between strikes.
The current situation has enabled the transit of weapons, ammunition, equipment, fuel, food and medical supplies, from #Poland and other countries through #Westukraine.
♦️How is the Process organised?
For the past months, trains from Europe have been passing through the railway stations in #Kovel and #Lvov on an almost daily basis. In these cities, incoming arms and fuel are accumulated and distributed by direction.
And while previously the Ukrainian leadership complied with security and camouflage requirements, sending important convoys mainly at night, now all convoys move freely and during the day.
At the same time, the diversification of modes of delivery continues by using highways and motorways to transport cargoes of various purposes from Polish, Lithuanian and German ports.
♦️ What about Airbases and Airfields?
The airport in the Polish #Rzeszow city is still the main hub for the transit of Western-made weapons to #Ukraine. A string of heavy transport planes of the NATO bloc regularly fly from the US and European countries to #Poland.
However, the absence of any threat to military facilities in #Westukraine has allowed the AFU to use existing airfields and airports unhindered not only for tactical aviation, but also for transport aircraft as the AN-26s.
During the last few weeks Ukrainian transport aircrafts An-26 with military cargoes have been flying almost daily to #Lutsk airfield of the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade and to the airport of #Lvov. They turn off their transponders before entering Ukrainian airspace.
♦️Why risk sending by Air what can be sent by Trains and Convoys?
Planes are less capable of carrying - they can't carry at once what trains and convoys of trucks can carry. But they are more advantageous for faster delivery of ammunition and transportation of personnel.
According to some reports, the 204th TA Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force is repairing and refurbishing combat aircraft, and in #Lvov some types of artillery and tank armament. An-26 transports are transporting parts, spare parts and units, which are required to be delivered immediately.
♦️Why are there no Strikes against them?
As with the airfield in #Mirgorod, cruise missile strikes on the bases are effectively useless: by the time the Kalibras reach the western regions, all aircraft are gone, and strikes by bombers or artillery are impossible at this stage for the obvious reasons of #Ukraine's still active air defence and distance from the frontline.
♦️What about a possible Offensive?
Although Kiev considers an offensive in this direction from #Belarus unlikely, they are preparing for various scenarios - up to and including an attempt to cut the supply line in #Lvov and other regions.
The importance of the territories of western #Ukraine in the current conflict is invaluable to the AFU. Everything given by the West, a large part of the repair and recovery bases, arsenals and logistics hubs are stationed or pass through here.
And their safety is a priority. If a month ago there were about 500 people in the territory of #Kovel and #Lutsk, mostly members of the military defence forces, now their number reaches 2 thousand people from various formations.
Sources say that separate units of the 28th Mechanized Brigade, the 100th Territorial Defence Brigade, the Border Guard Sercice, as well as nationalist movements, including the Ichkerian group and the Turkish Bozkurt, are deployed near #Kovel. This does not include the grouping in the #Lvov region.
So there is no point in hoping for an easy ride here.
t.me/sitreports / t.me/rybar/42395 /#ass/
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MAP:
🎄Importance of Volyn and Lvov Regions
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Soledar Direction until 14:00 on 19 Jan 2023⚡️
♦️#Soledar Area:
▪️ PMC Wagner assault units, having gained control of the 7th mine and #Sol station, are advancing towards #Blagodatnoye, as well as towards the AFU stronghold on the #Krasnopolye - #Razdolovka - #Veseloye line.
♦️Northeast of #Bakhmut:
▪️ Fierce fighting for Krasnaya Gora and #Paraskovievka continues. Tomorrow, the 218th and 219th Battalions of 125th Territorial Defence Brigades from the #Sumy region are expected to arrive in this area to replace the 166th Battalion of 119th Territorial Defence Brigade, 74% of which have refused to fight.
▪️ The Ukrainian command plans to attack the positions of Russian paratroopers on the #Shevchenko - #Podgorodnoye line to hold the main roads north of #Bakhmut by the 4th Battalion of the AFU's 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade.
♦️#Bakhmut Area:
▪️ An unidentified unit from the #Chernigov region has arrived to reinforce the grouping. The 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU has been reinforced with 60 mobilised men.
▪️ Due to heayy losses, the command of the AFU's 61st Mechanized Brigade is withdrawing its personnel from #Bakhmut and the surrounding area to #Cherkasy . Between 19 and 23 January, the remaining four formations of the 61st Mechanized Brigade, together with their equipment, are sent for resupply from #Druzhkovka station.
♦️Southwest of #Bakhmut:
▪️ "Wagnerians" have completely liberated the village of #Kleshchiyevka, and pushed the combined units of the 3rd Assault Brigade and the AFU Territorial Defence out of the settlement. Fighting is currently continuing around the settlement.
▪️ The loss of #Kleshchiyevka poses a major threat to the AFU garrisons in #Bakhmut and Chasov Yar. Ukrainian formations are attempting to counterattack with the support of barrel and self-propelled artillery (eight M777 howitzers and one M109 SAU) deployed on the western outskirts of #Krasnoye.
▪️ Meanwhile, in Chasov Yar itself, fortifications are being actively prepared and reinforcements continue to be moved in. The presence of the Azov nationalist formation members was noted in Alekseevo-Druzhkovka.
❗️Also from #Kovel in #Volyn region to #Kramatorsk the transfer of personnel and equipment of the 67th Mechanized Brigade (over 2 thousand people) from the AFU 9th Army Corps being formed has begun.
The AFU continues to send additional formations to deter the Russian advance, while gradually preparing the second line of defence #Slavyansk - #Kramatorsk - #Konstantinovka for defence in case of withdrawel from #Bakhmut and #Seversk.
t.me/sitreports / t.me/rybar/42826 /#smo/
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♦️#Soledar Area:
▪️ PMC Wagner assault units, having gained control of the 7th mine and #Sol station, are advancing towards #Blagodatnoye, as well as towards the AFU stronghold on the #Krasnopolye - #Razdolovka - #Veseloye line.
♦️Northeast of #Bakhmut:
▪️ Fierce fighting for Krasnaya Gora and #Paraskovievka continues. Tomorrow, the 218th and 219th Battalions of 125th Territorial Defence Brigades from the #Sumy region are expected to arrive in this area to replace the 166th Battalion of 119th Territorial Defence Brigade, 74% of which have refused to fight.
▪️ The Ukrainian command plans to attack the positions of Russian paratroopers on the #Shevchenko - #Podgorodnoye line to hold the main roads north of #Bakhmut by the 4th Battalion of the AFU's 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade.
♦️#Bakhmut Area:
▪️ An unidentified unit from the #Chernigov region has arrived to reinforce the grouping. The 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU has been reinforced with 60 mobilised men.
▪️ Due to heayy losses, the command of the AFU's 61st Mechanized Brigade is withdrawing its personnel from #Bakhmut and the surrounding area to #Cherkasy . Between 19 and 23 January, the remaining four formations of the 61st Mechanized Brigade, together with their equipment, are sent for resupply from #Druzhkovka station.
♦️Southwest of #Bakhmut:
▪️ "Wagnerians" have completely liberated the village of #Kleshchiyevka, and pushed the combined units of the 3rd Assault Brigade and the AFU Territorial Defence out of the settlement. Fighting is currently continuing around the settlement.
▪️ The loss of #Kleshchiyevka poses a major threat to the AFU garrisons in #Bakhmut and Chasov Yar. Ukrainian formations are attempting to counterattack with the support of barrel and self-propelled artillery (eight M777 howitzers and one M109 SAU) deployed on the western outskirts of #Krasnoye.
▪️ Meanwhile, in Chasov Yar itself, fortifications are being actively prepared and reinforcements continue to be moved in. The presence of the Azov nationalist formation members was noted in Alekseevo-Druzhkovka.
❗️Also from #Kovel in #Volyn region to #Kramatorsk the transfer of personnel and equipment of the 67th Mechanized Brigade (over 2 thousand people) from the AFU 9th Army Corps being formed has begun.
The AFU continues to send additional formations to deter the Russian advance, while gradually preparing the second line of defence #Slavyansk - #Kramatorsk - #Konstantinovka for defence in case of withdrawel from #Bakhmut and #Seversk.
t.me/sitreports / t.me/rybar/42826 /#smo/
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MAP:
⚔️ Soledar Direction at 14:00 on 19 Jan 2023