⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡@Rybar's Analysis on the State of #Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure by the End of 2022⚡️

🩸It is becoming increasingly difficult to analyse the consequences of strikes and firing on Ukraine's energy system.

Preventive shutdowns of electricity consumers have become the norm.Immediately after receiving information about missile or UAV launches, the power supply is cut off.

♦️How critical are such measures?

Launches are tracked by NATO surveillance systems and through the Ukrainian agent network. Information is promptly transmitted to higher headquarters. Such measures make it difficult to obtain objective data.

But there are certain advantages to the Russian side in preventive shutdowns. Any shutdown of high-voltage line and equipment is not an easy process. Such measures lead to a reduction in the technological lifetime and service life of equipment due to transients.

Since not all alarms end up hitting energy facilities, preventive shutdowns are themselves a source of damage to the power system - albeit not as pronounced. Nor is the negative effect on the economy going anywhere.

♦️ 29 December, there was a massive missile strike: Where did it go?

Energy facilities located in #Kharkov region, #Kiev, Odessa, as well as #Nikolaev, #Lvov and #Ivano-Frankovsk regions were struck.

As a result, hits in:

▪️ In the #Kharkov region:
➖ TPP-3;
➖ Substation Losevo 330 (one of the autotransformers);
➖ Zmievskaya TPP.

▪️ In #Odessa:
➖ PS Usatovo 330 (one of the autotransformers).

▪️ #Kiev:
➖ CHPP-5.
➖ Novokievskaya substation 330 (presumably).

▪️ #Lvov region:
➖ PS Lvov Western 330;
➖ Dobrotvorskaya TPP (assumed).

▪️ #Nikolaev region:
➖ Substation Trikhaty 330;

▪️ Ivano-Frankovsk region:
➖ Burshtynskaya TPP (presumably).

♦️But the strikes are effective, aren't they?

The results of the strikes can hardly be called impressive - most regions have gone from emergency shutdowns within a day to planned ones.

Much of this can be attributed to outages of industrial consumers unrelated to transport and the country's defence capability, which are not reported in the media. The saved capacity is being diverted to power residential houses and social facilities, and the optimistic statements by the authorities that the situation has stabilised are an attempt to convince people that things are better than they actually are.

Autotransformers - piecemeal and expensive products that cannot simply be purchased on the open market - are consistently failing, and they cannot be made quickly in #Europe.

♦️ So the consequences are critical?

The energy sector's efforts are primarily focused on preserving what remains in serviceable condition, and they simply may not be enough for mass installation of new equipment.

In addition, work on suppressing #Ukraine's air defence has finally begun. Under the pretext of strikes against energy facilities, position areas of radars and anti-aircraft systems are being identified. Regular deliveries of SAMs from NATO countries are already having a significant impact on the effectiveness of target engagement. Therefore, disabling air defence facilities is already an urgent necessity.

And it's not just about reducing electricity transit, it's also about reducing the ability to generate electricity.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💥 #Chronicle of Strikes and Mutual Shelling in the #SMO Zone overnight from 10 to 11 Feb 2023⚡️

▪️ Overnight Ukrainian formations attempted an "Tochka-U" OTMS strike on #Mariupol, but air defence means shot down the missile.

▪️ The Russian forces fired on enemy accumulations of manpower in #Tolstodubovo, #Bachevsk, #Basovka and #Popovka in #the Sumy region, as well as in #Krasny, #Glubokoye and #Volchansk in the #Kharkov region.

▪️ In the #Starobelsk direction, the RF Armed Forces struck enemy positions in Figolevka, Novomlynsk, #Dvurechnaya, #Kotlyarovka, #Novoselovskoye, #Makeyevka and #Nevskoye.

▪️ In the #Bakhmut (#Artyomovsk) direction, Russian forces hit targets in #Bakhmut, Chasovy Yar, #Ivano-Daryevka, #Vasyukovka, #Zaliznyanskoye and the vicinity of #Spornoye.

▪️ In the #Donetsk direction, the RF Armed Forces fired on AFU targets in #Avdeyevka, #Tonenkoye, #Pervomayskoye, #Krasnogorovka, and the western part of #Maryinka.
➖ The enemy terrorists, in turn, once again shelled #Donetsk, #Makeyevka and #Alexandrovka.

▪️ In the #SouthDonetsk sector, Russian troops hit targets in Zolotaya Niva, #Prechistovka, #Bogoyavlenka, #Vremyevka and #Novopol.

▪️ In the #Zaporozhye region, the RF Armed Forces struck enemy concentrations of manpower in #Gulyaypole, #Olgovskoye, #Stepnogorsk, #Charivnoye and Malaya Tokmachka.

▪️ In the southern sector of the front, Russian troops inflicted fire on Ukrainian forces in #Zmiyevka, #Mylovoye, and #Kherson and its environs.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Frontline #Summary for the Morning of 9 June 2023; pub. 08:02⚡️

🔹 In the #Zaporozhye Direction, the AFU launched an attack on #Lobkovoye and had a tactical success. Two roads converge in the settlement. However, they have no operational significance.
➖ To the east, the AFU continued its offensive on #Rabotino.
💥Russian artillery and aviation struck Ukrainian units in #Steponoye, Malye Shcherbaki, #Shcherbaki, #Novoandreyevka, #Orekhoe, #Novodanilovka, Malaya Tokmachka and #Belogorye.
💥 The AFU launched a missile attack on #Berdyansk. (Fig. 1)

🔹 In the #Ugledar Section, the AFU conducted an assault in the area of #Neskuchnoye.
💥 Under fire the AFU positions in #Vremyevka, Zolotaya Niva, #Shakhtyorskoye, #Prechistovka and #Ugledar. (Fig. 2)

🔹 On the #Donetsk Front, the AFU are trying to counterattack in #Maryinka.
➖ For their part, units of the RF Armed Forces, supported by artillery, have resumed assault actions near #Pervomayskoye, on the southwestern approaches to #Avdeyevka and near #Severnoye (a populated area northwest of #Gorlovka). The last of the above-mentioned areas has become a new active area of action for Russian troops.
💥 Ukrainian army positions in #Novomikhaylovka, #Pobeda, Georgiyevka, #Maksimilyanovka, #Ostrom, #Krasnogorovka, #Karlovka, #Steponoye (not to be confused with the same name near the line of contact in the Zaporizhia direction (also called #Petrovskoye)), #Berdychi and #Toretsk were under fire.
💥 The Ukrainian army launched strikes against #Donetsk, #Opytnoye and #Gorlovka. (Fig. 3)

🔹 Southwest of #Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army managed to advance towards #Kleshchiyevka.
➖ The RF Armed Forces tried to counterattack at #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) after artillery strikes. Without success.
➖ Northwest of Bakhmut, the AFU conducted assault actions near #Berkhovka and Dubovo-Vasilyevka.
➖ Meanwhile, units of the RF Armed Forces, supported by artillery, attempted to advance towards #Vesyoloye.
💥 Ukrainian positions in Belaya Gora, Aleksandro-Shultino, #Stupochki, #Bogdanovka, #Grigorovka, #Vasyukovka, #Nikiforovka, #Razdolovka, #Zvanovka, #Ivano-Daryevka, #Spornoye, #Verkhnekamenskoye and #Seversk came under fire. (Fig. 4)

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