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There was no order to withdraw from Avdeevka - the Ukrainian army simply fled
▪️Ukraine should expect threats everywhere: not only along the entire line of contact, but also from the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions - let them wait and scatter their reserves.
▪️Without Western help, Ukraine is finished. With Western help, it's finished too, but a little later.
▪️Western experts are shocked by the capture of Avdeevka: they expected the Ukrainian army to defend the coke plant, but it was abandoned without a fight.
▪️Here's what happened: the Russian army has changed a lot in the last six months. Not only does it have new equipment and special devices, but its firepower has increased dramatically, including the air force. For example, about 300 large air bombs were dropped on Avdeevka alone during the last week of the assault.
▪️Ukrainians are trying to guess the direction of the next big Russian attack. The Russians are attacking in the Zaporozhye, Ugledar and Maryinka sectors, advancing towards Liman, Kupyansk and Kharkov. The operation to the west of Avdeevka continues. The Russians are also pushing towards Chasov Yar.
Where will Ukraine try to build a new line of defense after fleeing from Avdeevka?
▪️The terrain there is such that sooner or later, the Russians will have to stop at the line of hills, on the river bank. There is a strong Kurakhovo-Selidovo line 15km away from Avdeevka: the towns are on the right bank of a river, on very high hills. Russians will clearly not move there, but it is within their power to clear the space 10-15 km from Donetsk.
▪️The Ukrainians are now disorganized, it's hard for them to build a defense. The units that have escaped the cauldron are still uncontrollable.
Will the shelling of Donetsk decrease?
▪️Unfortunately, so far, this problem has not been solved, and it won't be solved in the coming weeks or even months. The Grad range is 40km, and even Kurakhovo is just 20km away from Donetsk.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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▪️Ukraine should expect threats everywhere: not only along the entire line of contact, but also from the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions - let them wait and scatter their reserves.
▪️Without Western help, Ukraine is finished. With Western help, it's finished too, but a little later.
▪️Western experts are shocked by the capture of Avdeevka: they expected the Ukrainian army to defend the coke plant, but it was abandoned without a fight.
▪️Here's what happened: the Russian army has changed a lot in the last six months. Not only does it have new equipment and special devices, but its firepower has increased dramatically, including the air force. For example, about 300 large air bombs were dropped on Avdeevka alone during the last week of the assault.
▪️Ukrainians are trying to guess the direction of the next big Russian attack. The Russians are attacking in the Zaporozhye, Ugledar and Maryinka sectors, advancing towards Liman, Kupyansk and Kharkov. The operation to the west of Avdeevka continues. The Russians are also pushing towards Chasov Yar.
Where will Ukraine try to build a new line of defense after fleeing from Avdeevka?
▪️The terrain there is such that sooner or later, the Russians will have to stop at the line of hills, on the river bank. There is a strong Kurakhovo-Selidovo line 15km away from Avdeevka: the towns are on the right bank of a river, on very high hills. Russians will clearly not move there, but it is within their power to clear the space 10-15 km from Donetsk.
▪️The Ukrainians are now disorganized, it's hard for them to build a defense. The units that have escaped the cauldron are still uncontrollable.
Will the shelling of Donetsk decrease?
▪️Unfortunately, so far, this problem has not been solved, and it won't be solved in the coming weeks or even months. The Grad range is 40km, and even Kurakhovo is just 20km away from Donetsk.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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Avdeevka shows that the Russian tactic is working
▪️Overall, the Avdeevka offensive operation is over. But there is still a certain amount of activity between Lastochkino, Stepovoe-Berdychi, and Orlovka, where Russian troops are using artillery to destroy Ukrainian positions. This area has become a huge gray zone: the Russians are in no hurry to occupy the abandoned Ukrainian positions, which may be targeted by the enemy. So they are busy burning this strip down, and the Ukrainians are abandoning their fortifications.
▪️Many Ukrainian units are now unwilling to go into battle. This is a major problem for the Ukraine - to reestablish order in the army, which is disorganized.
▪️Zaporozhye sector: it would be wrong for the Russians to attack rapidly here, as there would be substantial casualties. First of all, it is necessary to completely destroy the first line of defense and knock out the Ukrainian reserves. In the course of last night, more than 50 gliding bombs were dropped on the Ukrainian grouping in this sector alone, not to mention artillery and other types of munitions.
▪️The situation is very similar in the Chasov Yar area, where the Russian troops have been doing the same thing for several days now: dropping one-and-a-half-ton aerial bombs, among other things, which simply annihilate the buildings. Dozens of smaller bombs are also used, which suggests that Russian attacks are coming soon.
▪️Activity has increased in the Kupyansk sector, where the Russians have also started to use gliding bombs. That is, the Ukrainians can expect a strike from at least three directions.
Can we assume that the use of aerial bombs and drone swarms is the new Russian tactic to take strong fortifications?
▪️To be more precise, this is the tactic to break through the echeloned defense lines where the enemy has a lot of drones, jamming equipment, etc.
#Yury_Podolyaka
▪️Overall, the Avdeevka offensive operation is over. But there is still a certain amount of activity between Lastochkino, Stepovoe-Berdychi, and Orlovka, where Russian troops are using artillery to destroy Ukrainian positions. This area has become a huge gray zone: the Russians are in no hurry to occupy the abandoned Ukrainian positions, which may be targeted by the enemy. So they are busy burning this strip down, and the Ukrainians are abandoning their fortifications.
▪️Many Ukrainian units are now unwilling to go into battle. This is a major problem for the Ukraine - to reestablish order in the army, which is disorganized.
▪️Zaporozhye sector: it would be wrong for the Russians to attack rapidly here, as there would be substantial casualties. First of all, it is necessary to completely destroy the first line of defense and knock out the Ukrainian reserves. In the course of last night, more than 50 gliding bombs were dropped on the Ukrainian grouping in this sector alone, not to mention artillery and other types of munitions.
▪️The situation is very similar in the Chasov Yar area, where the Russian troops have been doing the same thing for several days now: dropping one-and-a-half-ton aerial bombs, among other things, which simply annihilate the buildings. Dozens of smaller bombs are also used, which suggests that Russian attacks are coming soon.
▪️Activity has increased in the Kupyansk sector, where the Russians have also started to use gliding bombs. That is, the Ukrainians can expect a strike from at least three directions.
Can we assume that the use of aerial bombs and drone swarms is the new Russian tactic to take strong fortifications?
▪️To be more precise, this is the tactic to break through the echeloned defense lines where the enemy has a lot of drones, jamming equipment, etc.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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On Ukrainian losses, POWs, and Russian advances
• If one recognizes 31K dead, then formally, it will be 31K. Meanwhile, 50-60K Ukrainian families are spending months trying to get the documents done for their relaives who were killed in action. Ukraine will find any reason not to recognize the death of a soldier and not to make any payments.
• Missing in action: their fate is unknown. The bodies of many Ukrainian soldiers have not yet been collected near Avdeevka. Elsewhere, locals still come across mass graves of 10-15 soldiers near abandoned Ukrainian positions. No one knows the exact number. According to some sources, it’s up to 100K.
• The Ukrainian ombudsman said that Russians have 28K "Ukrainian citizens" in captivity – clearly, 90% of those are soldiers. A lot of police officers and border guards are taken prisoners, too. Back in the summer, the figure was about 10-12K POWs.
• Here is a story I heard from the soldiers of Russia's 76th division: during an assault they captured a group of Ukrainian soldiers, and two Russians were convoying them. Ukrainians often use drones to target their prisoners (as "punishment"). So, their drones wounded our convoys. The Ukrainian captives lifted our convoy guys up in their arms, and they all came to the Russian positions together.
• The reason Ukrainian officials talk about another counteroffensive is to explain why they are asking for money and weapons.
• The prospects for Russia are good in the Donetsk sector. The other day, the Russians took Lastochkino, Severnoye, and completely cleared Stepovoye. Yesterday, they reached the outskirts of Orlovka, tried to take Berdychi - so far unsuccessfully - and consolidated on the outskirts of Tonenkoye.
• Aerial bombs are targeting Ukrainian positions in these settlements.
• Artillery preparation is underway north of Avdeevka. The Russian offensive may develop northward so that Ukraine's Toretsk grouping may find itself in an Avdeevka-type situation.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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• If one recognizes 31K dead, then formally, it will be 31K. Meanwhile, 50-60K Ukrainian families are spending months trying to get the documents done for their relaives who were killed in action. Ukraine will find any reason not to recognize the death of a soldier and not to make any payments.
• Missing in action: their fate is unknown. The bodies of many Ukrainian soldiers have not yet been collected near Avdeevka. Elsewhere, locals still come across mass graves of 10-15 soldiers near abandoned Ukrainian positions. No one knows the exact number. According to some sources, it’s up to 100K.
• The Ukrainian ombudsman said that Russians have 28K "Ukrainian citizens" in captivity – clearly, 90% of those are soldiers. A lot of police officers and border guards are taken prisoners, too. Back in the summer, the figure was about 10-12K POWs.
• Here is a story I heard from the soldiers of Russia's 76th division: during an assault they captured a group of Ukrainian soldiers, and two Russians were convoying them. Ukrainians often use drones to target their prisoners (as "punishment"). So, their drones wounded our convoys. The Ukrainian captives lifted our convoy guys up in their arms, and they all came to the Russian positions together.
• The reason Ukrainian officials talk about another counteroffensive is to explain why they are asking for money and weapons.
• The prospects for Russia are good in the Donetsk sector. The other day, the Russians took Lastochkino, Severnoye, and completely cleared Stepovoye. Yesterday, they reached the outskirts of Orlovka, tried to take Berdychi - so far unsuccessfully - and consolidated on the outskirts of Tonenkoye.
• Aerial bombs are targeting Ukrainian positions in these settlements.
• Artillery preparation is underway north of Avdeevka. The Russian offensive may develop northward so that Ukraine's Toretsk grouping may find itself in an Avdeevka-type situation.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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🧐 Is the western section of the Donetsk front about to collapse?
▪️Both left and right-wing politicians have called Macron an idiot. Everyone understands that there will be no European or NATO troops committed to Ukraine.
▪️Macron's problem is that Russia has squeezed him out of Africa, which used to be the backyard of France, and he has suffered a sharp defeat on the foreign policy front. Obviously, his gamble on Ukraine is not paying off, which means a second defeat. Macron is trying his best to delay the disaster.
▪️What will his message be for the elections? His domestic policy has failed completely: farmers are protesting, inflation is high, the French say they have become worse off.
Battlefield update
▪️Last night, Ukrainian commentators (such as Yury Butusov and various Azov speakers) started to panic: they say that the defenses west of Avdeevka are not well prepared, which is resulting in avoidable losses. Their maps show that yesterday the Russians pushed through Ukrainian defenses along a broad front, approaching Berdychi and reaching the outskirts of Orlovka. The Russians have created a big threat to Tonenkoye from the north, also entering it from the east. The front west of Avdeevka is starting to crumble.
▪️The Russian army's daily advance was around one kilometer in the area of Orlovka, more than a kilometer towards Berdychi, and about 700-800 meters near Tonenkoye. This is what the Ukrainian side has confirmed.
💥 Regarding the destroyed "Abrams," Ukrainians had an order to throw these tanks into battle as a last resort. It turns out they threw them into battle to hold the defense together. The Russians destroyed one of them, the second one managed to slip away. The Ukrainian 47th Brigade's reserves are running low.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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▪️Both left and right-wing politicians have called Macron an idiot. Everyone understands that there will be no European or NATO troops committed to Ukraine.
▪️Macron's problem is that Russia has squeezed him out of Africa, which used to be the backyard of France, and he has suffered a sharp defeat on the foreign policy front. Obviously, his gamble on Ukraine is not paying off, which means a second defeat. Macron is trying his best to delay the disaster.
▪️What will his message be for the elections? His domestic policy has failed completely: farmers are protesting, inflation is high, the French say they have become worse off.
Battlefield update
▪️Last night, Ukrainian commentators (such as Yury Butusov and various Azov speakers) started to panic: they say that the defenses west of Avdeevka are not well prepared, which is resulting in avoidable losses. Their maps show that yesterday the Russians pushed through Ukrainian defenses along a broad front, approaching Berdychi and reaching the outskirts of Orlovka. The Russians have created a big threat to Tonenkoye from the north, also entering it from the east. The front west of Avdeevka is starting to crumble.
▪️The Russian army's daily advance was around one kilometer in the area of Orlovka, more than a kilometer towards Berdychi, and about 700-800 meters near Tonenkoye. This is what the Ukrainian side has confirmed.
💥 Regarding the destroyed "Abrams," Ukrainians had an order to throw these tanks into battle as a last resort. It turns out they threw them into battle to hold the defense together. The Russians destroyed one of them, the second one managed to slip away. The Ukrainian 47th Brigade's reserves are running low.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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Is Ukraine getting ready to counterattack?
▪️Counterattacks are happening under Avdeevka. Russians managed to break through the Ukrainiam lines, freed the city, and are moving westward. The Ukrainian arny is trying to counterattack to stabilize the frontline.
▪️In order for counterattacks to be successful, the Ukrainian army needs resources and opportunities. Right now, they have neither. General Pavliuk says there are major issues with the quality and quantity of troops. Who is he gonna throw into battle? Armed with what? There are no weapons and no shells left.
Then what's the point of announcing a counterattack?
▪️Pure politics. Polls in Ukraine show that Zaluzhny is way more popular than Zelensky. The population of Ukraine doesn't like a government that's losing the war. This is damage control. They need to find ways to make people join the army. They are telling lies to sweeten the pill.
At the Front Lines
▪️Ukrainian sources confirmed they're counterattacking in three areas. I'd add Novomikhailovka to that list. Ukrainian maps show they have no positions left in Ivanovskoe. Russians forced them out, and they retreated over a small ravine.
▪️The same happens to the south, between Ivanovskoe and Kleshcheevka. There was a lot of fighting there yesterday. On Ukrainian maps, their forces are pushed back by a kilometer in a few places, but I can't confirm that Russians occupied their abandoned positions.
▪️Terny: Russian forces are advancing. They have not entered the settlement yet, but there is less than a kilometer between it and Russian forward positions.
▪️Avdeevka: after their counterattack failed, Ukrainians reported Russian advances towards Orlovka and Tonenkoe. No such reports regarding Berdychi yet.
▪️Novomikhailovka: Russians advanced to the south of it and made small advancements near Pobeda.
▪️Krasnogorovka: Russian air forces are bombing the brick factory. Southern part of the town is under Russian control, two streets were captured.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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▪️Counterattacks are happening under Avdeevka. Russians managed to break through the Ukrainiam lines, freed the city, and are moving westward. The Ukrainian arny is trying to counterattack to stabilize the frontline.
▪️In order for counterattacks to be successful, the Ukrainian army needs resources and opportunities. Right now, they have neither. General Pavliuk says there are major issues with the quality and quantity of troops. Who is he gonna throw into battle? Armed with what? There are no weapons and no shells left.
Then what's the point of announcing a counterattack?
▪️Pure politics. Polls in Ukraine show that Zaluzhny is way more popular than Zelensky. The population of Ukraine doesn't like a government that's losing the war. This is damage control. They need to find ways to make people join the army. They are telling lies to sweeten the pill.
At the Front Lines
▪️Ukrainian sources confirmed they're counterattacking in three areas. I'd add Novomikhailovka to that list. Ukrainian maps show they have no positions left in Ivanovskoe. Russians forced them out, and they retreated over a small ravine.
▪️The same happens to the south, between Ivanovskoe and Kleshcheevka. There was a lot of fighting there yesterday. On Ukrainian maps, their forces are pushed back by a kilometer in a few places, but I can't confirm that Russians occupied their abandoned positions.
▪️Terny: Russian forces are advancing. They have not entered the settlement yet, but there is less than a kilometer between it and Russian forward positions.
▪️Avdeevka: after their counterattack failed, Ukrainians reported Russian advances towards Orlovka and Tonenkoe. No such reports regarding Berdychi yet.
▪️Novomikhailovka: Russians advanced to the south of it and made small advancements near Pobeda.
▪️Krasnogorovka: Russian air forces are bombing the brick factory. Southern part of the town is under Russian control, two streets were captured.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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Capabilities of Russian intelligence-gathering services have increased significantly
▪️Russia has more spy satellites now. Communications intelligence capabilities have also been improved. Russians now know more about Ukrainian movements than they did before.
▪️First confirmed HIMARS and two Archer systems were destroyed. The latter are capable of hitting targets at distances of up to 70 km. Ukraine received 8 of them in total.
▪️Ukrainian strike force aiming to strike at Belgorod suffered a crushing defeat, losing up to 10 vehicles, 5 tanks, several self-propelled guns and IFVs, and up to a company of troops. Russians discovered Ukrainian preparations and destroyed the attack force as it was getting ready to advance.
▪️Two "Challenger" tanks were destroyed while they were on the move. Five more broke down. This is par the course for western war gear - a great deal of tanks, vehicles, and artillery systems breaks down on the move.
Much Ado about F-16s
▪️F-16 is not a miracle weapon. It's purpose is to launch western-made long-range missiles. It is not meant for dog-fighting. Several of these jets would be sent to Ukraine before the end of spring.
Situation at the front lines
▪️Ukrainians are sending in their reserves to stop Russian advances westward of Avdeevka and in Chasov Yar. These attempts are linked to the upcoming Russian elections. Ukrainians suffered many casualties under Berdychi.
▪️Russian advancements are not as swift as they used to be. There have been gains in Tonenkoe and Orlovka. There is a fierce meeting engagement under Berdychi.
▪️Local advancements under Chasov Yar. Ukrainians are sending their reserves into the city, to prevent Russians from entering it. Russian forces managed to capture the hills between Ivanovskoe and Bogdanovka.
▪️Russians managed to reach the outskirts of Terny. Local advancements near Sinkovka. Substantial advancements in Georgievka and Novomikhailovka. Four fortified positions were captured near Rabotino.
#Yury_Podolyaka
▪️Russia has more spy satellites now. Communications intelligence capabilities have also been improved. Russians now know more about Ukrainian movements than they did before.
▪️First confirmed HIMARS and two Archer systems were destroyed. The latter are capable of hitting targets at distances of up to 70 km. Ukraine received 8 of them in total.
▪️Ukrainian strike force aiming to strike at Belgorod suffered a crushing defeat, losing up to 10 vehicles, 5 tanks, several self-propelled guns and IFVs, and up to a company of troops. Russians discovered Ukrainian preparations and destroyed the attack force as it was getting ready to advance.
▪️Two "Challenger" tanks were destroyed while they were on the move. Five more broke down. This is par the course for western war gear - a great deal of tanks, vehicles, and artillery systems breaks down on the move.
Much Ado about F-16s
▪️F-16 is not a miracle weapon. It's purpose is to launch western-made long-range missiles. It is not meant for dog-fighting. Several of these jets would be sent to Ukraine before the end of spring.
Situation at the front lines
▪️Ukrainians are sending in their reserves to stop Russian advances westward of Avdeevka and in Chasov Yar. These attempts are linked to the upcoming Russian elections. Ukrainians suffered many casualties under Berdychi.
▪️Russian advancements are not as swift as they used to be. There have been gains in Tonenkoe and Orlovka. There is a fierce meeting engagement under Berdychi.
▪️Local advancements under Chasov Yar. Ukrainians are sending their reserves into the city, to prevent Russians from entering it. Russian forces managed to capture the hills between Ivanovskoe and Bogdanovka.
▪️Russians managed to reach the outskirts of Terny. Local advancements near Sinkovka. Substantial advancements in Georgievka and Novomikhailovka. Four fortified positions were captured near Rabotino.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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"Those whom God wishes to destroy, He first deprives of reason."
Armenia is following in Ukraine's footsteps. Moreover, the Europeans are bribing the Armenians with the same “carrot” - if you break up with Russia and help us destroy it, we will eventually let you become a part of the EU in return.
This is precisely the policy that official Yerevan has been pursuing since Nikol Pashinyan came to power in 2018.
As a result, the Armenians lost two wars and vast territories, and over 100,000 residents of Karabakh became refugees.
Had Yerevan maintained good relations with Moscow, this would not have happened. This fact is often ignored by Armenians. Everyone there expects that they will soon become a part of Europe.
Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the situation by biting off bits and pieces of Armenia, mirroring events in Ukraine. It's being done gradually so as not to alarm the idiots in charge of the country ahead of time. Meanwhile, the topic of Zangezur corridor which should connect Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan, is already being used to bolster the Azerbaijan population.
They will come for Yerevan too. Behind closed doors, it is still referred to as an Azerbaijani city.
Meanwhile the idea of using Russia as a scapegoat for all of its troubles is becoming less and less popular. People notice that it is Macron, not Russia, who is stirring everything up. They do not perceive the crisis as a sign of Russian weakness. Quite the opposite - the West appears to be scared of Russia, and even speculates about a "possible" Russian invasion of Europe.
Russia being weak is just another fever dream of Yerevan's own 5th column, who think that all it takes is kicking out Russian peacekeepers and find themselves accepted into EU overnight. I seems like a waste of time proving anything to these idiots as they won't listen anyway.
Those whom God wishes to destroy, He first deprives of reason. What has happened recently to Ukraine, now is happening to Armenia
#Yury_Podolyaka
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📱 InfoDefense
Armenia is following in Ukraine's footsteps. Moreover, the Europeans are bribing the Armenians with the same “carrot” - if you break up with Russia and help us destroy it, we will eventually let you become a part of the EU in return.
This is precisely the policy that official Yerevan has been pursuing since Nikol Pashinyan came to power in 2018.
As a result, the Armenians lost two wars and vast territories, and over 100,000 residents of Karabakh became refugees.
Had Yerevan maintained good relations with Moscow, this would not have happened. This fact is often ignored by Armenians. Everyone there expects that they will soon become a part of Europe.
Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the situation by biting off bits and pieces of Armenia, mirroring events in Ukraine. It's being done gradually so as not to alarm the idiots in charge of the country ahead of time. Meanwhile, the topic of Zangezur corridor which should connect Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan, is already being used to bolster the Azerbaijan population.
They will come for Yerevan too. Behind closed doors, it is still referred to as an Azerbaijani city.
Meanwhile the idea of using Russia as a scapegoat for all of its troubles is becoming less and less popular. People notice that it is Macron, not Russia, who is stirring everything up. They do not perceive the crisis as a sign of Russian weakness. Quite the opposite - the West appears to be scared of Russia, and even speculates about a "possible" Russian invasion of Europe.
Russia being weak is just another fever dream of Yerevan's own 5th column, who think that all it takes is kicking out Russian peacekeepers and find themselves accepted into EU overnight. I seems like a waste of time proving anything to these idiots as they won't listen anyway.
Those whom God wishes to destroy, He first deprives of reason. What has happened recently to Ukraine, now is happening to Armenia
#Yury_Podolyaka
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French Forces in Ukraine: Two Can Play That Game
To deter anyone from mirroring Macron's approach.
In France, there's a significant effort to shape public opinion towards the idea that French forces might take up positions along the Ukraine-Belarus border, thereby allowing Ukrainian troops to focus on the conflict in the East.
The reason is obvious. Ukraine's reserves are thin. The front is at risk of faltering without significant support in weapons and ammunition, a situation still hindered by Republican obstruction. A potential interim solution is to reallocate Ukrainian Armed Forces from quieter sectors.
Under these circumstances, Russian military leadership should prioritize targeting the areas held by French troops, aiming to ensure their rapid and unceremonious return back to France, in coffins, thus discouraging European involvement in similar endeavors.
Furthermore, French military presence isn't limited to their homeland but extends to Africa as well. Suppose, hypothetically, they were to come under attack (not by Russia, of course, but by rebels, perhaps armed with some newly developed, sophisticated weaponry). In that case, it could serve as a disproportionate response to the French government's maneuvers.
While all this remains speculative, Moscow sends a clear message to France with the inauguration of an exhibition commemorating the 210th anniversary of Paris's fall.
Who knew that the Russians have a sense of humor?
#Yury_Podolyaka
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To deter anyone from mirroring Macron's approach.
In France, there's a significant effort to shape public opinion towards the idea that French forces might take up positions along the Ukraine-Belarus border, thereby allowing Ukrainian troops to focus on the conflict in the East.
The reason is obvious. Ukraine's reserves are thin. The front is at risk of faltering without significant support in weapons and ammunition, a situation still hindered by Republican obstruction. A potential interim solution is to reallocate Ukrainian Armed Forces from quieter sectors.
Under these circumstances, Russian military leadership should prioritize targeting the areas held by French troops, aiming to ensure their rapid and unceremonious return back to France, in coffins, thus discouraging European involvement in similar endeavors.
Furthermore, French military presence isn't limited to their homeland but extends to Africa as well. Suppose, hypothetically, they were to come under attack (not by Russia, of course, but by rebels, perhaps armed with some newly developed, sophisticated weaponry). In that case, it could serve as a disproportionate response to the French government's maneuvers.
While all this remains speculative, Moscow sends a clear message to France with the inauguration of an exhibition commemorating the 210th anniversary of Paris's fall.
Who knew that the Russians have a sense of humor?
#Yury_Podolyaka
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The terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall: Why did Kiev take this risk?
So, Kiev stubbornly insists that its special services have nothing to do with the attack, but it doesn’t really matter. Whoever wants to believe them will pretend to believe them, and the opinion of the world majority is of little interest to the safe-proclaimed demigods who think they have the right to decide whose crimes to forgive.
I think that all the risks were perfectly understood both in Kiev and in the ultimate decision-making center. But they did it anyway. Which suggests that this is likely not the end of their game.
The next step looks obvious. The fact that the Kiev security services hired migrants from Central Asia (and especially Tajiks, who are statistically the most numerous in Russia) for this terrible crime is definitely not a coincidence.
Logically, the next step of the terrorist attack organizers should be an attempt to organize another violent act, this time on behalf of some "badass Russians," targeting migrants or muslims. The idea is that it should result in large-scale violence on ethnic or confessional grounds (or ideally both), which will allow the West and Kiev... to win the war in Ukraine. Because it's long been clear that there is no other way they can do it. That's the only meaningful reason why they took the risk of being declared terrorists.
I urge all true Russian patriots not to fall for this enemy manipulation.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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So, Kiev stubbornly insists that its special services have nothing to do with the attack, but it doesn’t really matter. Whoever wants to believe them will pretend to believe them, and the opinion of the world majority is of little interest to the safe-proclaimed demigods who think they have the right to decide whose crimes to forgive.
I think that all the risks were perfectly understood both in Kiev and in the ultimate decision-making center. But they did it anyway. Which suggests that this is likely not the end of their game.
The next step looks obvious. The fact that the Kiev security services hired migrants from Central Asia (and especially Tajiks, who are statistically the most numerous in Russia) for this terrible crime is definitely not a coincidence.
Logically, the next step of the terrorist attack organizers should be an attempt to organize another violent act, this time on behalf of some "badass Russians," targeting migrants or muslims. The idea is that it should result in large-scale violence on ethnic or confessional grounds (or ideally both), which will allow the West and Kiev... to win the war in Ukraine. Because it's long been clear that there is no other way they can do it. That's the only meaningful reason why they took the risk of being declared terrorists.
I urge all true Russian patriots not to fall for this enemy manipulation.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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Controversial Blame and Conspiracies: The "Crocus" Incident
Kiev is desperately trying to prove that the terrorist attacks in "Crocus" were not perpetrated by itself but by ISIS. Everyone understands the significance of this moment. If it can be proven that the Kiev Bandera group, a gang of criminals, is behind this, their downfall will be imminent. None, not even their "political parents," would be able to support them afterward, leading to the regime's rapid collapse.
This explains the fervent desire to deflect suspicion. This is especially true as, in the United States, Trump supporters are beginning to embrace this argument in their conflict with the Democrats. While currently only testing the waters, if this claim gains mainstream traction, Zelensky's group will find themselves in deep trouble.
Moreover, the Center for Post-Soviet Studies itself realizes that implicating ISIS will be extremely challenging. The crime does not match ISIS's modus operandi, lacking both their typical signatures and a plausible motive. In fact, the individuals who committed this heinous act do not resemble the kind of radicals willing to die for their beliefs.
Instead, the methodology suggests the use of societal outcasts, paid to commit crimes in Russia, particularly at a time convenient for our adversaries. This tactic, as Vladimir Vysotsky's character Captain Zheglov would put it, has a "completely recognizable style" and mirrors the operation style of Ukrainian special services for nearly two years. The involvement of Tajik migrants can be easily explained by the special operation's objectives: to sow ethnic and religious discord within Russia and attempt to destabilize it from within, as the regime is failing on the front and sees no other escape.
Hence, there are attempts to "cast a shadow on the fence," (red herring) insinuating that this is the doing of the Russian government itself. This includes overt manipulation of facts, such as falsely claiming that the culprits fled to Belarus instead of Ukraine, despite clear evidence to the contrary. This attempt to obscure one of the main pieces of indirect evidence linking the perpetrators to the orchestrators underscores the desperation.
Furthermore, knowing that the criminals (who were likely not meant to survive) will soon start talking, there is an effort to preemptively discredit their testimonies.
Meanwhile, all four involved individuals were detained and placed in pre-trial detention for two months. Yet, the narrative does not stop here. As the initial shock subsides, emerging questions suggest that the four Tajiks were merely the "tip of the iceberg" in this conspiracy, making the ISIS theory increasingly untenable.
#Yury_Podolyaka
📱 InfoDefenseENGLISH
📱 InfoDefense
Kiev is desperately trying to prove that the terrorist attacks in "Crocus" were not perpetrated by itself but by ISIS. Everyone understands the significance of this moment. If it can be proven that the Kiev Bandera group, a gang of criminals, is behind this, their downfall will be imminent. None, not even their "political parents," would be able to support them afterward, leading to the regime's rapid collapse.
This explains the fervent desire to deflect suspicion. This is especially true as, in the United States, Trump supporters are beginning to embrace this argument in their conflict with the Democrats. While currently only testing the waters, if this claim gains mainstream traction, Zelensky's group will find themselves in deep trouble.
Moreover, the Center for Post-Soviet Studies itself realizes that implicating ISIS will be extremely challenging. The crime does not match ISIS's modus operandi, lacking both their typical signatures and a plausible motive. In fact, the individuals who committed this heinous act do not resemble the kind of radicals willing to die for their beliefs.
Instead, the methodology suggests the use of societal outcasts, paid to commit crimes in Russia, particularly at a time convenient for our adversaries. This tactic, as Vladimir Vysotsky's character Captain Zheglov would put it, has a "completely recognizable style" and mirrors the operation style of Ukrainian special services for nearly two years. The involvement of Tajik migrants can be easily explained by the special operation's objectives: to sow ethnic and religious discord within Russia and attempt to destabilize it from within, as the regime is failing on the front and sees no other escape.
Hence, there are attempts to "cast a shadow on the fence," (red herring) insinuating that this is the doing of the Russian government itself. This includes overt manipulation of facts, such as falsely claiming that the culprits fled to Belarus instead of Ukraine, despite clear evidence to the contrary. This attempt to obscure one of the main pieces of indirect evidence linking the perpetrators to the orchestrators underscores the desperation.
Furthermore, knowing that the criminals (who were likely not meant to survive) will soon start talking, there is an effort to preemptively discredit their testimonies.
Meanwhile, all four involved individuals were detained and placed in pre-trial detention for two months. Yet, the narrative does not stop here. As the initial shock subsides, emerging questions suggest that the four Tajiks were merely the "tip of the iceberg" in this conspiracy, making the ISIS theory increasingly untenable.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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The terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall: Why did Kiev take this risk?
So, Kiev stubbornly insists that its special services have nothing to do with the attack, but it doesn’t really matter. Whoever wants to believe them will pretend to believe them, and…
So, Kiev stubbornly insists that its special services have nothing to do with the attack, but it doesn’t really matter. Whoever wants to believe them will pretend to believe them, and…
Forwarded from InfoDefenseENGLISH
Kiev realizes that it has lost the war, so it's trying its best to "save the game"
▪️Kiev knows it can't win. This is especially true following the Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure on March 22 and 24. These strikes are part of a long-term strategy, and if nothing fundamentally changes, by the end of the year, there may be no Ukraine from an energy point of view. How can one fight in the modern world without energy and industry?
▪️Typically, a civil war ends with the complete defeat of one side. For Ukraine, retaining its statehood would mean a victory. They will then be able to say they have defended their independence, and they may finally get into NATO. This is why they are preparing their population for such an outcome, acknowledging the reality that neither the 1991 nor the 2022 borders will be restored.
▪️ They are gradually preparing people to say: "Let's make peace now, we have energy problems, we don't have enough weapons. We will stop now, and, of course, we will strike later." This narrative could garner them popular support.
▪️Is this good or bad for Russia? The Western media have long been offering Russia some kind of "compromise" along the lines of: take what you have annexed, and we will take the rest into NATO. The Russian political leadership does not accept these terms.
Battlefield update
▪️Russia has advanced in Novomikhailovka. The northern part has been taken; the days of the Ukrainian garrison are numbered. This represents both a flanking maneuver and a significant blow to the rear of the Ugledar grouping.
▪️Ukraine also realizes that it has surrendered those positions from which Russia can conveniently enter Chasov Yar and break through the defense in Ocheretino, Berdychi and Semyonovka. Therefore, Ukrainians are desperately trying to counterattack from there - without success. Huge losses. However, Ukraine continues to attack persistently and attempts to hold positions at any cost, fully aware of the situation's gravity.
#Yury_Podolyaka
📱 InfoDefenseENGLISH
📱 InfoDefense
▪️Kiev knows it can't win. This is especially true following the Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure on March 22 and 24. These strikes are part of a long-term strategy, and if nothing fundamentally changes, by the end of the year, there may be no Ukraine from an energy point of view. How can one fight in the modern world without energy and industry?
▪️Typically, a civil war ends with the complete defeat of one side. For Ukraine, retaining its statehood would mean a victory. They will then be able to say they have defended their independence, and they may finally get into NATO. This is why they are preparing their population for such an outcome, acknowledging the reality that neither the 1991 nor the 2022 borders will be restored.
▪️ They are gradually preparing people to say: "Let's make peace now, we have energy problems, we don't have enough weapons. We will stop now, and, of course, we will strike later." This narrative could garner them popular support.
▪️Is this good or bad for Russia? The Western media have long been offering Russia some kind of "compromise" along the lines of: take what you have annexed, and we will take the rest into NATO. The Russian political leadership does not accept these terms.
Battlefield update
▪️Russia has advanced in Novomikhailovka. The northern part has been taken; the days of the Ukrainian garrison are numbered. This represents both a flanking maneuver and a significant blow to the rear of the Ugledar grouping.
▪️Ukraine also realizes that it has surrendered those positions from which Russia can conveniently enter Chasov Yar and break through the defense in Ocheretino, Berdychi and Semyonovka. Therefore, Ukrainians are desperately trying to counterattack from there - without success. Huge losses. However, Ukraine continues to attack persistently and attempts to hold positions at any cost, fully aware of the situation's gravity.
#Yury_Podolyaka
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