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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ’₯ About the Missile Attack on #Zaporozhye⚑️

At around half past twelve on 22 Mar 2023, several explosions thundered in the Aleksandrovsky district of the leftbank part of #Zaporozhye. Residents reported 5-6 arrivals in the residential area near the Coastal Highway.

Judging by video from the scene, one of the shells hit the junction of residential buildings 2A and 2B on Zaporozhskaya Street and destroyed the balcony sections. Some time later fire broke out in several damaged flats. It could have been caused by ignition of electric generators, which locals often place just on balconies.

Coordinates: 47.819654, 35.159249

Local media report that 31 people were injured. There were no civilian fatalities.

πŸ”ΉWhat was that?

When breaking down the video of the arrival by frames, you can see that the ammunition has an elongated shape with a small tail. In terms of the ratio of length and diameter, it strongly resembles a large-caliber MLRS projectile.

The direction of impact and nature of the damage suggests that the launching position was located somewhere between #Dneprorudnoye and #Vasilyevka near the shore of the Kakhovka reservoir. The distance to #Zaporozhye is approximately 50 km, which corresponds to the range of Smerch MLRS.

Later, photos from the roof of a neighbouring house appeared, where another unexploded ordnance was allegedly discerned. However, it later turned out that the missile was an ordinary solar panel, which was simply filmed from the "right" angle.

πŸ“Œ Residential Buildings were not the target of the raid. It is more likely that they were hit either as a result of a targeting error, or due to the condition of the ammunition.

And in any case, with the ongoing problems with ammunition, wasting rockets on residential areas is a luxury that the RF Armed Forces simply can't afford.

πŸ”Ή What could have been the real target of the attack?

At first glance, there really are no military facilities or critical infrastructure near the massif that came under fire. However, there are a large number of warehouses within 500 meters, including the cargo department of Novaya Pochta.
Its length-to-diameter ratio strongly resembles that of a large-calibre MLRS projectile.

The direction of impact and nature of the damage suggests that the launching position was located somewhere between Dneproprodnoye and Vasylivka near the shore of the Kakhovka reservoir. The distance to Zaporizhzhya is approximately 50 km, which corresponds to the range of Smerch MLRS.

Later, photos from the roof of a neighbouring house appeared, where another unexploded ordnance was allegedly discerned. However, it later turned out that the missile was an ordinary solar panel, which was simply filmed from the "right" angle.

Coordinates: 47.8153882, 35.1679352

The company has long been involved in the transportation and delivery of ammunition and other cargo for the AFU, which has caused its terminals to be hit more than once. It is quite possible that this facility was the real target of the missile attack.

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί High Resolution Infographic; πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP

πŸ“œ RYBAR

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βš‘οΈπŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β˜’οΈ On the AFU Plans to seize #ZNPP and #Energodar⚑️

πŸ—“ The other Day
, British intelligence published photo of the territory of the #Zaporozhye NPP, taken on 25 Mar from a satellite. In the picture you can see the installation of firing positions and loopholes right on the roof of the NPP behind the reactors.

πŸ”ΉWhy might such measures be needed?

The AFU command is intensively preparing for the offensive. Although its terms have been shifted more than once, according to characteristic signs, it is not far off. Western curators need success, and they are pushing the AFU hard to attack.

One of the enemys' main goals is to seize the #Zaporozhye region, including #Energodar and #ZNPP. The NPP has been the subject of negotiations mediated by the IAEA since late last year.

Then the Ukrainians tried to push through the creation of first a 30km and then a 5km buffer zone around the #ZNPP with the full withdrawal of Russian troops and equipment, including air defence. The Russians rejected the demands, so no agreement could be reached.

πŸ”ΉWhat is happening at the Moment?

Units of the 121st and 129th Territorial Defence (TD) Brigades are concentrated on the Kakhovka Reservoir coast on the right bank of the #Dnieper River. The 178th Battalion of the 121st TD Brigade operates at the #Maryanskoye - #Dudchany line, and 5 Battalions of the 129th TD Brigade are stationed along the reservoir on the #Nikopol - #Ilyinskoye - #Kanevskoye line.

In the last 3 months, at the training ground in #Maryanskoye, under the leadership of the tactical special forces group of the South command, assault groups have been preparing to force water barriers and land troops on the unequipped coast

At least 12 barges are moored at #Nikopol and #Pokrovskoye, which are planned to be used for the transfer of personnel and military equipment to #Energodar, and firing positions of long-range M777 howitzers with Excalibur guided munitions are equipped along the coast.

❗️In Addition, the πŸ‘‰ recently arrived forces of the 71st Jager Brigade are stationed on the #Pokrovskoye - #Nikopol - #Marganets line. The 71st Jager Brigade took part in #Bakhmut defence, and some survivors of the meat grinder have experience in urban battles.

πŸ”ΉWhat will the AFU achieve?

The offensive plan is to strike in one or two main directions and a few stilted ones along the front. The enemy pays special attention to the territories on the left bank of the #Dnieper in their plans.

As the attack starts, one can expect simultaneous forcing of the #Dnieper by tactical landing not only from the #Kherson side but also from the line #Dudchany - Zolotaya Balka - #Maryanskoye - #Pokrovskoye line, where 121st and 129th TD Brigades have taken up positions.

The most combat-ready forces of the 71st Brigade were given the task of assaulting #Energodar from two sides, #Nikopol and #Marganets. In theory, this will allow taking control of the #ZNPP and provide a bridgehead for the landing of a larger group to break through to #Crimea.

πŸ”ΉThe Russian Command is well aware of the impending Ukrainian operation. Therefore, the equipment of defensive positions at the #ZNPP and around its territory is a completely logical step.

It is necessary to strengthen not only the area of the NPP and #Energodar, but also the coastal line from Bolshaya Lepetikha to #Dneprorudny and #Vasilyevka. The #Kakhovka reservoir is quite extensive, and attacks can occur at any site.

Not only the area of the NPP and Energodar, but also the coastal line from Bolshaya Lepetikha to #Dneprorudnoye and #Vasilievka should be reinforced. The #Kakhovka reservoir is quite extensive, and attacks could occur in any of the areas.

It is vital for the AFU to occupy a wide bridgehead on the entire left bank of the #Dnieper River in order to execute their plan. Related to this is the πŸ‘‰ probing of the ground by the Ukrainian paratroopers on the islands in the #Kherson region.

High Resolution: πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ MAP; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MAP

πŸ“œ RYBAR; 27 Apr 2023, 14:33

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