Shiro's Alpha
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Pure Alpha.
News, Catalysts, Narratives, Knowledge, Projects, Airdrops.

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Gm,

I see that some people are leaving this channel, which I understand since it hasn’t been very active lately.
Maybe some are even quitting crypto.

Yet I'm pretty happy about why this channel's not active.

It's mainly because I sold at good prices, avoiding this downside and bear market boredome, and I'm now waiting for better times instead of forcing activity and wasting everyone's time.

I'm still there, still researching and learning, but it makes no sense to share new projects and make trench calls in these conditions.

I’d rather wait for better opportunities to buy back on the way up than try to catch falling knives or get bored to death in endless chop.

Also I'm not in the trenches either since there are little to no good opportunities. Even when things do pump, they move maybe 10% of what they would in good market conditions.

In the past, I kept trading in markets like this. I bought shitcoins, chased every new launch, caught falling knives, and basically wasted both my time and capital.

This time I took profits on most of my bags, announced it here so you could do the same, and now I'm just sitting on stablecoins, farming some yield & airdrops, touching some grass, resetting mindset for 2026.

So yeah, I’ve been quiet, to reset and handle other businesses, and do things I usually don’t have time for.

I know some of you depend on this market to make money every month, but unless you’re really good at it, or just lucky, there’s little chance you’ll perform now compared to when the market picks up again.

Some will say you need to stay in crypto and glued to your screen every day to make it. That's not true for everyone.
It could be true if you're a trader, you might want to learn how to trade in all market conditions.
But for my strategy, as I'm not a perp trader, it's beneficial to step back when opportunities are just not there.

DEX Volume is at its lowest this year, CEX Volume too, DeFi TVL is low, activity on CT is low, even the Kaito campaigns seem to have stopped a bit and we don't see as much content.
All launches have been catastrophic events, ICO Season sucks.
Net flow to the ETFs have been negative for the past 2 months.

All of that while Gold & Silver are at ATH, same for equities (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow jones..) and many tech/AI stocks too.

Only crypto is lagging behind.
People are just tired.

Which could mean a major catch up in 2026. We'll see.

Anyway, for those staying in this channel, the alpha will be back soon!
I’ll be back to curating the latest news, projects, launches, airdrops, trends, and market thoughts; from X, TG groups, newsletters, and anywhere else alpha is found.

That will be for 2026.

I believe things will get interesting again in 2026. But right now, everyone is tired of this market.
I'm slowly buying back in, but starting very slow, waiting to see how January unfolds. Prices are still way lower than when I sold so I'm not in a hurry as I said many times. We're still in an endless chop.

Enjoy some time off with your family, the holidays, and the end of the year 🫡
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Gm,
Happy New Year! 🫡

I thought 2026 was off to a good start, but it feels like we’re already back to endless chop.
Hopefully it doesn’t last long.

$BTC barely managed to break above $90k and is struggling to hold it.

That said, some alts are getting bid again, and risk appetite is slowly coming back.
Even memecoins are seeing a small run.

Still, we need $BTC to stay above $90k to sustain a real bull run.
Reclaiming $100k is mandatory for a strong Q1 2026 imo.

I’ve started buying back, slowly throughout Q1, assuming conditions remain the same. I’ll adapt if needed.

Anyway, let’s properly kick off 2026 with a few recaps.
I know some of you didn’t really start the crypto year on January 1st, so if you missed anything, this one’s for you.

But first, let’s take a quick look back at 2025.

------------

2025 Look Back

Narratives that shaped 2025
Tokenless protocols that raised $100M+ in 2025
Full list of Prediction Markets that raised in 2025
What VCs funded in 2025
Prediction Markets Metrics in December 2025
DeFi protocols ranked by total fees generated in 2025
Largest Categories in DeFi by TVL
Privacy Mindshare up 5x in 2025

------------

Now let's start 2026 on the right foot.

Predictions & Narratives for 2026

2026 Crypto Themes
5 Theses for 2026
Bitcoin price prediction for 2026: $174k
Watchlist for 2026 based on a16z big ideas
Things to look at in 2026
5 Narratives to watch in 2026 (nairolf)
• 5 Narratives to watch in 2026 (DeFi Warhol)
10 RWA Predictions for 2026
15 crypto AI & robotics predictions for 2026

------------

What's already happening in 2026

The Latest Development in DeFi (Week 1)
The Latest Development in DeFi (Week 2)
The Latest Crypto AI x Robotics Updates
Vibe Coding & more AI Updates
More Crypto Updates
January 2026 Crypto Calendar
DeFi protocols ranked by TVL at the start of 2026
RWA are still very early in 2026
The Altcoin Market is doing exactly what it should
The ZCash Situation
Leading Narratives one week into 2026
Memecoins are back as the fastest-growing narrative to start 2026
With many meme graduates
Crypto x AI Narrative performance ranking
NeoFinance Narrative in 2026
Early 2026 Mindshare

------------

What to do in 2026

18 New Perps to farm in 2026
145 projects for Airdrops in 2026
More Airdrops to farm
Yield Farming
What's vibe coding & How to vibe code
How to get a job/opportunities in Crypto

------------

And that's it for our first roundup of 2026.
Let's make this year better than 2025! 🫡

NFA & DYOR!
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Gm,

As I thought, as soon as we entered 2026 volume is back, memecoins are back, even trenches are back.

And we're already having a brand new narrative!

It's kinda hard to give a name to this narrative though but it's an AI/tech x vibecoding x Creator Economy Narrative.

Basically open-source AI founders, developers, and engineers are actively using crypto to boostrap & fund their projects. It's mainly happening on Solana, and the mechanism enabling that is creator-led tokenization via BagsApp.

So the edge is to find good devs, good founders, or big repo on github, that have a token on Bags to bootstrap their project.

However, it already topped a bit for now, if it doesn't catch up it means we're still in a rotation game and in very short-lived narratives, which would be quite bad news. It litterally lasted 24 hours. But I'm hoping for another leg.

People buy these tokens to bet on a developer’s popularity, while developers for most of these tokens don’t own tokens and instead earn royalty fees that fund expensive Claude compute and credits.

So the tokens are a bit like memecoins in a way that they have no utility for holders and are a bet on popularity & speculation.

If you wanna have a look at this narrative, most of it is happening on BagsApp a Solana Launchpad. It has even surpassed PumpFun in volume the past day.

Some of the biggest tokens of this narrative are:
$GAS, experimental AI coding agent orchestration system, essentially an operating-system-like framework for running many AI coding assistants in parallel. By @ Steve_Yegge.
$RALPH, a Claude plugin that turns frontier AI models into persistent, autonomous coding agents. By @ GeoffreyHuntley .
$STARCRAFT, AI-agent use case, VC-backed and the dev is a crypto-native. 3D interfaces for AI. Visual AI. By @ dom_scholz.
$CMEM, Biggest Claude Repo, a dedicated Claude Code plugin for automatic memory capture, AI compression (using Claude's own agent-sdk), semantic search, and context injection across sessions, solving the common pain point of Claude "forgetting" everything when a session restarts.
$TERRA, to plant trees, funded by a Bags token. Backed by @ Yishan, former reddit CEO. Learn more about it (Not really a tech token but a Bags token).

But they're mostly all down bad in the past 24hrs. But it could be a good time for another leg.

Anyway, at least the trenches are making some volume, especially for sol, but even chinese memecoins on BNB are back.

PumpFun also recently made its best revenue since Oct 1st, showing volume is increasing for all memecoins.

NFA & DYOR of course, these tokens are high risk, degen & probably short lived. 🫡
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Shiro's Alpha
Gm, As I thought, as soon as we entered 2026 volume is back, memecoins are back, even trenches are back. And we're already having a brand new narrative! It's kinda hard to give a name to this narrative though but it's an AI/tech x vibecoding x Creator Economy…
Gm,

This meta is already dead (for now at least), the whole market is dumping.

I’m taking things slow, buying back into the market gradually instead of all at once, and only gambling a small amount in the trenches. 🫡
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Gm,

Another day another crime in CT.
$TROVE just launched and is already down 99%.

Seems like I dodged a massive bullet by fading this sale. 🫡

Hope you're safe too!
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I'm buying very few projects in this market, only picked thoroughly, projects that have been building for a while and are unlikely to rug, unlike Trove.

And one of them is $SERV, which could have a pretty good run soon.

In case you missed it, Openserv is now being used by the UAE government.

And is also launching an AI launchpad.

🔗 OpenServ Updates & Catalysts

I'm not saying it will 100% pump, especially in this market, but I'm still confident on the long run, and it has some catalysts coming soon.

NFA & DYOR 🫡
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Either the market bounces soon, or Q1 will probably be a pass for me, tbh.

1. Gold and Silver pump to ATHs while BTC barely moves, mostly just dipping.
2. Gold and silver pull back slightly after an uponly trend… BTC & the entire market dumps.

Why are we even in this market?
The only one not at ATH, with no run in 2025.

Fortunately, as I mentioned before, I sold almost everything in Q4 2025.
Unfortunately, I kept some low-caps, and they’re all lower now ($XMW, $SERV, $CODEC, $NKP, mostly).

So yes, I’m sitting on losses on those bags, maybe not from the initial entries, but definitely from the refills.

I also said a couple of weeks ago that I was slowly getting back into the market.
I’m making another small buy today, but I’m not trying to catch a falling knife. If nothing happens in the coming weeks I'll just wait before committing to any meaningful size.

With 90% of the market underwater, liquidity drying up, and most new projects and launches being awful, the only thing really left to "play" is memecoins. And I’m not good at memecoins. So I’m not going to force it and lose money there. I’d rather invest in other assets and allocate my time to better endeavors.

Hopefully, we’re close to the "it’s over" phase of this bear market, and optimism returns sooner rather than later.

Nothing else to do but to remain positive and believing that another bull market will come, as it always has.
But in the meantime, I’m glad I diversified into other assets.
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Shiro's Alpha
Gm, As I said here, I chose to derisk quite a lot and avoid shilling dozens of new tokens every day. Honestly, it seems like a decent decision given how the market looks right now and how everything is nuking. We still get some quick little runs on some new…
Gm,

Hope you're doing good in this boring Bear Market.

Honestly, I'm still sticking to my strategy (since November).
And I'm actually nailing this Bear Market, better than any previous cycle.

As I announced here I'm almost fully out of the market.
I sold my main bag, $ETH, on the way down from ETH $4k to ETH $3.3k.

It resulted in many obvious positive outcomes:
• I didn't have to watch my bags bleed
• I didn't lose money
• I have time to think clearly about my strategy
• I have time to allocate to other businesses
• I have liquidity to get back in the market when I want to

Obvious yet freeing outcomes.

The previous cycles, I was always way too invested in the market.

It was driven by the “Diamond Hands” mentality and the visible success of high-conviction holders from the 2020 cycle, and the cycle before that, who made a ton of money simply by holding. Of course, with a massive survivorship bias.

Even back then, most of the top 100 coins were never heard from again in the following cycles.

But there were fewer altcoins overall, less capital dilution, and holding the top 10 generally produced stronger returns than it does today.

However, things are different now.
I still believe that if you’re a "passive" investor with sufficient capital, you can DCA into BTC, never sell, and likely do very well over the next 5-10 years.

But I wouldn’t advise anyone to buy and hold altcoins through multiple cycles.
Of course it will work for a few, but the list is small compared to the number of altcoins that will likely underperform, even just within the top 200.

Anyway now that I'm free from this "holder mentality", I'm free from watching my portfolio bleed -70% without being able to act, I'm free from spending a dozen hours a day on CT everyday during a bear market for no reason, I'm free from aping every new shitcoin in the trenches.

I'm mostly on the sidelines, patient, slowly getting back in, but still 80% in stablecoins.

The only thing I didn't really nail this Bear Market was thinking the few conviction lowcaps I had could not go much lower. Most were already very low in capitalization and yet some still dropped another 50%. Low caps rarely exceed 20% of my portfolio, so I was prepared for volatility, but still in hindsight it was quite obvious they weren't going to hold $20-30M capitalizations and would rather go < $10M.

That said, they represent a small share of my portfolio (even smaller now that they're down so much lmao), and overall I managed to preserve roughly 70% of my capital.

Anyway, I just hope you also sold on the way down like I did. If my posts helped you do that, I’m glad.

And I do believe that I delivered more alpha by announcing my sells here, and getting out of the market, than I would have by posting nonstop calls in terrible market conditions.

By following most people I would still be bag holding, and I would ape new shitcoins every day, while most don't even last a day.

In markets like this, preservation is alpha.
Marathon, not a sprint, blablabla, you already know that.

Preserve your capital, reassess your convictions, rethink your strategy, enjoy this slow market, take the time you needed to handle other matters, and get back in the market slowly.

If you followed me you reduced exposure at good levels, moved into stablecoins (and earning yield on it which is always nice in a bear market), now you wait for good opportunity, you don't waste your money in the latest shitcoin, and you preserve your capital (+ mental health).

As for $BTC I do think we could see lower prices, but I don't see sub-$40k unlike what some are saying, unless we get a true black swan, IRL catastrophic events, or a major macro shock.

If we do see BTC under $40k, I'll be a heavy buyer of course.

Until then, I'm still slowly getting back in, not trying to perfectly time the bottom. Not in a rush to buy back either.

We could very well see a slow 2026 until late summer, as cycles often play out that way.
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Shiro's Alpha
Gm, As I said here, I chose to derisk quite a lot and avoid shilling dozens of new tokens every day. Honestly, it seems like a decent decision given how the market looks right now and how everything is nuking. We still get some quick little runs on some new…
Regarding my convictions, I believe we’re getting a great opportunity to buy at these prices.
That’s why I’ll accumulate slowly on the way up. And if we dip first, that’s even better for me.

TL;DR:
Don't overdo it, keep a foot in the game, but wait for better conditions.
That's my strategy and I'm sticking to it. 🫡
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