"If the new thing isn’t better than what is available, it hasn’t met your threshold; then that screens out 99% of what you see, and it’s an enormous thought conserver. That is not taught in business schools.”

Charlie Munger.

✔️ @venture

📉 Treasury Yields Fall

After rate hike, the 10-year yield fell to 4.94% and the 20-year yield to 5.337%.

The move suggests the bond market is pricing in lower inflation after the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to bring inflation under control.

✔️ @venture

☺️ AMD Chip Prices

AMD is reportedly preparing to raise chip prices by ~10% as higher TSM wafer costs flow through to customers.

The increases are expected to hit AI accelerators and consumer GPUs in Q4, as advanced-node manufacturing gets more expensive.

✔️ @venture

“You don't need a lot of brains in this business…What you do need is emotional stability.

You have to be able to think independently: when you come to a conclusion, you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and your reasoning.”

Warren Buffett

✔️ @venture

🥋 BOJ Signals Further Rate Hikes

The Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to raise rates to 1.25%. Further hikes will depend on activity, prices, and financial conditions.

Underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target as wage growth, rising expectations, a weak yen, higher oil prices, and strong AI-related demand push up selling prices.

The economy is recovering moderately, supported by employment, income growth, and AI-related demand. CPI is expected to move clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026, while financial conditions remain accommodative.

Governor Ueda’s remarks will be watched for clues on the timing and pace of further hikes.

✔️ @venture

❤️‍🔥 Coffee Prices Fall 20%

Coffee prices are down 20% this year as supply exceeds demand for the first time in 4 years.

Brazil, the world's top coffee producer, is behind the surplus, with exports up 40% from a year ago.

✔️ @venture

Trump says he is creating an AI Force and will appoint an AI czar. The U.S. will not slow or stifle AI development.

AI could eventually account for 25% of U.S. GDP.

✔️ @venture

📉 Oracle’s Filings Under Scrutiny

Michael Burry says Big Tech filings may not show the full scale of AI commitments. Oracle is his main example, with $288B in leases it has not started paying.

🖱️ CEOs sign filings under oath, and lying on them is a crime.

🖱️ The filings do not show how much AI demand comes from companies buying each other’s products.

🖱️ Oracle’s 121% growth figure includes this type of revenue, without disclosing how much.

🖱️ Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle made $400B in profit last year, a fraction of their committed spending.

Burry is not calling it fraud. His point is that the truth may not be in the filings.

✔️ @venture

A 1964 prediction about our AI future.

✔️ @venture

🕊 A Ceasefire With a Missing Party

Published by Oman on 6th May 2025, the one-sentence deal bars Houthi and US attacks on each other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Saudi Arabia is not mentioned, while Israel was excluded by the Houthis.

The arrangement has held: no American bomb has fallen since then, and no confirmed Houthi strike on a US target has been recorded. US officials say ships still targeted are Saudi.

That leaves a policy contradiction. More than 100 US military personnel are reportedly in Saudi Arabia, providing targeting data to aircraft fighting the Houthis.

The coalition said it destroyed Friday’s missile, but AFP saw a burning Aramco-branded fuel tank and the Journal reported hits to jet-fuel facilities. The cause remains unconfirmed, but the strike reached Riyadh for the first time since March 2022.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Oil Inventories Near Operational Floor

Global oil inventories are projected to hit their operational floor of 6.8 billion barrels this month if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, according to JPMorgan.

Below that level, pipelines cannot maintain pressure and refineries start failing, regardless of the oil price. It would be the first time in recorded history that physical oil availability, not just price, becomes the concern.

✔️ @venture

Ⓜ️ Meta’s Narrative Turns on Price

Meta shows how quickly the market can change its narrative once the stock starts working. The same capex, AI spending, and installed base that were ignored suddenly look like advantages.

Muse was the turning point. Meta showed a consumer AI product with clear monetization through paid tiers, while plugging the agent into apps and services people already use.

The lesson is to build conviction before the story feels obvious, so the position is in place before everyone else pays up for the same thesis.

✔️ @venture

🍏 Apple Pay Eyes Stablecoins

Apple, with over 2 billion users, is hiring an Apple Pay strategy lead with stablecoin and blockchain experience.

That could bring stablecoins into one of the world's largest payment ecosystems.

✔️ @venture

💵 Schwab Cash Rates Compared

On 21st September 2026, $10,000 in Schwab’s Bank Sweep at 0.01% would earn about $1 yearly. The same amount in managed portfolios’ cash allocation at 3.29% would earn about $329, before tax and account costs.

Deposit insurance covers eligible bank deposits within limits, but does not set rates. The 3.29% applies only to cash in Schwab Intelligent Portfolios, not the full portfolio, which carries market risk and expenses.

The Fed’s 3.75% to 4% target range took effect on 16 September, after the 3.29% rate began on 1 September. Intelligent Portfolios resets monthly. Ordinary cash rates can change at Schwab’s discretion.

Schwab One Interest may pay $0 for a day when interest is below half a cent. At 0.01% on $10,000, daily interest is about 0.27 cents. The 15th October 2026 expectation is 0.01% for ordinary cash and above 3.29% for managed cash.

✔️ @venture