The Daily Radar, Oct 13, 2026
The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.
1. The unpriced list
Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:
- ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
- ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.6% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
- IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +11.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
- MTCH (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.40, moved +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. subscription dating apps; agent-mediated discovery and cancellation
- TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~32% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
2. New threat statements in filings
- Nothing new flagged today.
3. Model portfolio (paper)
- New call: GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~20% priced in.
- New call: IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~40% priced in.
- New call: ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- Kalshi: 13 paper bets on BAC's earnings call (2026-10-14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
- Kalshi: 9 paper bets on MS's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
- Kalshi: 2 paper bets on UAL's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
- Filled: short GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
- Paper books: options $1,000.00 / Kalshi $484.09 (24 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).
4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)
- BAC 'Tariff' (2026-10-14): model 0.77 vs ask 0.25 - said on 3/4 recent calls
- BAC 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' (2026-10-14): model 0.89 vs ask 0.4 - said on 4/4 recent calls
- UAL 'A321XLR' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.62 - said on 0/4 recent calls
- BAC 'Iran / Middle East' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.45 - said on 0/4 recent calls
- UAL 'Holiday' (2026-10-14): model 0.29 vs ask 0.65 - said on 1/4 recent calls
5. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)
- SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +509.5% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +219.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +188.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +157.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +153.1% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
---
Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ahead of what we publish.
The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.
1. The unpriced list
Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:
- ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
- ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.6% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
- IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +11.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
- MTCH (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.40, moved +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. subscription dating apps; agent-mediated discovery and cancellation
- TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~32% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
2. New threat statements in filings
- Nothing new flagged today.
3. Model portfolio (paper)
- New call: GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~20% priced in.
- New call: IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~40% priced in.
- New call: ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- Kalshi: 13 paper bets on BAC's earnings call (2026-10-14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
- Kalshi: 9 paper bets on MS's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
- Kalshi: 2 paper bets on UAL's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
- Filled: short GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
- Paper books: options $1,000.00 / Kalshi $484.09 (24 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).
4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)
- BAC 'Tariff' (2026-10-14): model 0.77 vs ask 0.25 - said on 3/4 recent calls
- BAC 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' (2026-10-14): model 0.89 vs ask 0.4 - said on 4/4 recent calls
- UAL 'A321XLR' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.62 - said on 0/4 recent calls
- BAC 'Iran / Middle East' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.45 - said on 0/4 recent calls
- UAL 'Holiday' (2026-10-14): model 0.29 vs ask 0.65 - said on 1/4 recent calls
5. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)
- SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +509.5% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +219.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +188.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +157.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +153.1% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
---
Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ahead of what we publish.
The Daily Radar, Oct 14, 2026
The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.
1. The unpriced list
Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:
- ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
- ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.6% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
- IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +11.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
- MTCH (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.40, moved +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. subscription dating apps; agent-mediated discovery and cancellation
- TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~32% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
2. New threat statements in filings
- Nothing new flagged today.
3. Model portfolio (paper)
- New call: GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~20% priced in.
- New call: IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~40% priced in.
- New call: ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: ECHO long (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: VZ long (Starlink Mobile). -5.2% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~69% priced in.
- New call: MTCH short (AI shopping agents). +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: TRIP short (AI shopping agents). -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~32% priced in.
- Kalshi: 13 paper bets on BAC's earnings call (2026-10-14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
- Kalshi: 9 paper bets on MS's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
- Kalshi: 2 paper bets on UAL's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
- Filled: short GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
- Paper books: options $1,000.00 / Kalshi $442.52 (24 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).
4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)
- ALLY 'Credit Card' (2026-10-20): model 0.97 vs ask 0.42 - said on 3/3 recent calls
- ALLY 'Tariff' (2026-10-20): model 0.92 vs ask 0.57 - said on 2/3 recent calls
- ALLY 'Buyback / Buy Back' (2026-10-20): model 0.74 vs ask 0.42 - said on 1/3 recent calls
- ALLY 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' (2026-10-20): model 0.60 vs ask 0.29 - said on 2/3 recent calls
- TFC 'Tailwind' (2026-10-16): model 0.14 vs ask 0.5 - said on 0/3 recent calls
5. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)
- SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +509.5% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +219.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +188.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +157.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +153.1% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
---
Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ah…
The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.
1. The unpriced list
Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:
- ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
- ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.6% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
- IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +11.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
- MTCH (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.40, moved +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. subscription dating apps; agent-mediated discovery and cancellation
- TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~32% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
2. New threat statements in filings
- Nothing new flagged today.
3. Model portfolio (paper)
- New call: GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~20% priced in.
- New call: IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~40% priced in.
- New call: ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: ECHO long (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: VZ long (Starlink Mobile). -5.2% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~69% priced in.
- New call: MTCH short (AI shopping agents). +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
- New call: TRIP short (AI shopping agents). -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~32% priced in.
- Kalshi: 13 paper bets on BAC's earnings call (2026-10-14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
- Kalshi: 9 paper bets on MS's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
- Kalshi: 2 paper bets on UAL's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
- Filled: short GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
- Paper books: options $1,000.00 / Kalshi $442.52 (24 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).
4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)
- ALLY 'Credit Card' (2026-10-20): model 0.97 vs ask 0.42 - said on 3/3 recent calls
- ALLY 'Tariff' (2026-10-20): model 0.92 vs ask 0.57 - said on 2/3 recent calls
- ALLY 'Buyback / Buy Back' (2026-10-20): model 0.74 vs ask 0.42 - said on 1/3 recent calls
- ALLY 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' (2026-10-20): model 0.60 vs ask 0.29 - said on 2/3 recent calls
- TFC 'Tailwind' (2026-10-16): model 0.14 vs ask 0.5 - said on 0/3 recent calls
5. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)
- SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +509.5% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +219.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +188.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +157.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
- LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +153.1% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
---
Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ah…
The Daily Radar, Oct 14, 2026
The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.
1. The unpriced list
Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:
- $GSAT (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, short): exposure 0.50, moved -0.3% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~8% priced in. Apple emergency-SOS satellite partner; D2C competition for handset satellite services
- $ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -4.6% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on Jun 24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
- $ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.5% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
- $IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +13.1% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
- $TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -5.5% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~22% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
2. New threat statements in filings
- Nothing new flagged today.
3. Model portfolio (paper)
- New call: $GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~20% priced in.
- New call: $IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~40% priced in.
- New call: $ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $ECHO long (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $VZ long (Starlink Mobile). -5.2% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~69% priced in.
- New call: $MTCH short (AI shopping agents). +0.4% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $TRIP short (AI shopping agents). -7.5% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~32% priced in.
- Kalshi: 13 paper bets on $BAC's earnings call (Oct 14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
- Kalshi: 9 paper bets on $MS's earnings call (Oct 14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
- Kalshi: 2 paper bets on $UAL's earnings call (Oct 14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
- Filled: short $GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short $IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short $ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short $IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: spread $VZ at $0.22 (options book).
- Filled: spread $MTCH at $0.20 (options book).
- Filled: spread $TRIP at $0.49 (options book).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-WORL at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.71).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-TARI at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.86).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RECE at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-15.00).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RATE at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+3.76).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-PIPE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.85).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-MERR at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.99).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-IRAN at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+9.43).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-INFL at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.76).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-HIKE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-15.00).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-DELI at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.99).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-BUYB at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.40).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-AI at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.94).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-AGEN at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.80).
- Paper books: options $985.95 (3 open) / Kalshi $315.18 (11 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).
4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)
- $ALLY 'Credit Card' (Oct 20): model 0.97 vs ask 0.41 - said on 3/3…
The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.
1. The unpriced list
Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:
- $GSAT (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, short): exposure 0.50, moved -0.3% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~8% priced in. Apple emergency-SOS satellite partner; D2C competition for handset satellite services
- $ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -4.6% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on Jun 24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
- $ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.5% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
- $IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +13.1% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
- $TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -5.5% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~22% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
2. New threat statements in filings
- Nothing new flagged today.
3. Model portfolio (paper)
- New call: $GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~20% priced in.
- New call: $IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~40% priced in.
- New call: $ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $ECHO long (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $VZ long (Starlink Mobile). -5.2% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~69% priced in.
- New call: $MTCH short (AI shopping agents). +0.4% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~0% priced in.
- New call: $TRIP short (AI shopping agents). -7.5% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~32% priced in.
- Kalshi: 13 paper bets on $BAC's earnings call (Oct 14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
- Kalshi: 9 paper bets on $MS's earnings call (Oct 14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
- Kalshi: 2 paper bets on $UAL's earnings call (Oct 14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
- Filled: short $GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short $IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short $ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: short $IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
- Filled: spread $VZ at $0.22 (options book).
- Filled: spread $MTCH at $0.20 (options book).
- Filled: spread $TRIP at $0.49 (options book).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-WORL at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.71).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-TARI at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.86).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RECE at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-15.00).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RATE at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+3.76).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-PIPE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.85).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-MERR at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.99).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-IRAN at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+9.43).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-INFL at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.76).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-HIKE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-15.00).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-DELI at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.99).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-BUYB at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.40).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-AI at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.94).
- Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-AGEN at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.80).
- Paper books: options $985.95 (3 open) / Kalshi $315.18 (11 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).
4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)
- $ALLY 'Credit Card' (Oct 20): model 0.97 vs ask 0.41 - said on 3/3…