🇺🇸#stocks #us #opinion
SocGen: history shows that extremely concentrated markets tend to precede crashes, as occurred during the run-up to the 2007- 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 bear market. There is no reason why this time would be any different — read more
SocGen: history shows that extremely concentrated markets tend to precede crashes, as occurred during the run-up to the 2007- 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 bear market. There is no reason why this time would be any different — read more
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
🇺🇸#stocks #us #monetarypolicy #history
Goldman: markets are anticipating an imminent rate cut by the Fed. Historically, the S&P 500 rises 10% in the 12 months following the first rate cut. However, if the US economy enters a recession during this period, the index typically falls by an average of 15%.
Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
Goldman: markets are anticipating an imminent rate cut by the Fed. Historically, the S&P 500 rises 10% in the 12 months following the first rate cut. However, if the US economy enters a recession during this period, the index typically falls by an average of 15%.
Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
❗️🇨🇳#china #savings #macro #opinion
SocGen: Chinese household savings exceed the country's annual GDP — read more
... if China were an open market economy, its capital markets would be the biggest in the world — FT
#stocks Chinese household savings have accumulated to twice the capitalization of the entire Chinese stock market. Sooner or later, these savings will flow into the domestic stock market, which is denominated in yuan.
SocGen: Chinese household savings exceed the country's annual GDP — read more
... if China were an open market economy, its capital markets would be the biggest in the world — FT
#stocks Chinese household savings have accumulated to twice the capitalization of the entire Chinese stock market. Sooner or later, these savings will flow into the domestic stock market, which is denominated in yuan.
🇬🇧#stocks #uk #bonds #cash #strategy
If you had invested £100 in UK stocks in 1899 and reinvested all the income, you would now have nearly £55,000 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in UK government bonds (Gilts), you would have nearly £550, and if you had invested in the money market (T-Bills), you would have nearly £300.
If you had invested £100 in UK stocks in 1899 and reinvested all the income, you would now have nearly £55,000 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in UK government bonds (Gilts), you would have nearly £550, and if you had invested in the money market (T-Bills), you would have nearly £300.
🇺🇸#stocks #us #bonds #cash #strategy
If you had invested $100 in American stocks in 1925 and reinvested all the income, you would now have $57,471 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in American bonds, you would have $776, and if you had invested in the money market (cash), you would have $134.
If you had invested $100 in American stocks in 1925 and reinvested all the income, you would now have $57,471 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in American bonds, you would have $776, and if you had invested in the money market (cash), you would have $134.
🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #bubble
Goldman: the current market is not much like the dot-com bubble. The companies dominating today are much more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than those that dominated during the dot-com bubble.
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BofA: US market is overheated by historical standards (chart)
Goldman: the current market is not much like the dot-com bubble. The companies dominating today are much more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than those that dominated during the dot-com bubble.
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BofA: US market is overheated by historical standards (chart)
⚠️🌎#stocks #macro #history
overall allocations to equities across the asset management industry are at historically high levels.
Historically, when allocations reach these levels, the proportion of equities in portfolios begins to decline, leading to prolonged periods of market decline, as seen in 2000, 2008, and 2019.
overall allocations to equities across the asset management industry are at historically high levels.
Historically, when allocations reach these levels, the proportion of equities in portfolios begins to decline, leading to prolonged periods of market decline, as seen in 2000, 2008, and 2019.
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
🇺🇸#stocks #monetarypolicy #us #analogy
the current market closely resembles 2007's dynamics: two corrections in six months, the second bigger than the first, followed by a rapid recovery to previous highs and the first Fed rate cut in September.
BofA views the first Fed rate cut as a negative event. Historically, the market tends to hit its bottom on average 12 months after the first rate cut #history
ElliotWave: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
Scorpi18|Investment Adviser
the current market closely resembles 2007's dynamics: two corrections in six months, the second bigger than the first, followed by a rapid recovery to previous highs and the first Fed rate cut in September.
BofA views the first Fed rate cut as a negative event. Historically, the market tends to hit its bottom on average 12 months after the first rate cut #history
ElliotWave: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
Scorpi18|Investment Adviser