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Fiscal.ai
MercadoLibre over the last 5 years:
Revenue +559%
Stock Price +16%
$MELI https://t.co/t0LKPQtTlG
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MercadoLibre over the last 5 years:
Revenue +559%
Stock Price +16%
$MELI https://t.co/t0LKPQtTlG
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: No but I try to listen to the market. And the market wants to see growth. It's unreasonable to screan that $PYPL is undervalued for 2Y+ while nothing happens at the company.
Everyone will say they were right for years when $PYPL finally goes back up but the truth is there'll be a reason for it going up then and not now. And that reason won't be growing EPS due to buybacks, it'll be competitive advantage due to new services or growth acceleration due to execution.
As of today? $PYPL isn't a good stock nor company. And it certainly isn't undervalued until they prove they have a place in the future besides just existing.
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RT @WealthyReadings: No but I try to listen to the market. And the market wants to see growth. It's unreasonable to screan that $PYPL is undervalued for 2Y+ while nothing happens at the company.
Everyone will say they were right for years when $PYPL finally goes back up but the truth is there'll be a reason for it going up then and not now. And that reason won't be growing EPS due to buybacks, it'll be competitive advantage due to new services or growth acceleration due to execution.
As of today? $PYPL isn't a good stock nor company. And it certainly isn't undervalued until they prove they have a place in the future besides just existing.
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memenodes
What do you say?
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What do you say?
It's either santa rally or disappointment at dinner table for crypto bro's tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
memenodes (@memenodes) on X
It's either santa rally or disappointment at dinner table for crypto bro's
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
When Job Listings Become Theater, Not Growth
Here’s the thing about that 66% stat, it’s uncomfortable because it exposes how much optics have crept into what we treat as hard data.
Job listings aren’t just vibes. They’re an official economic input. The government uses JOLTS job openings as a core signal of labor demand, and right now that number sits around 7.7 million openings, basically unchanged, which gets interpreted as the labor market is still tight. Policymakers lean on that. Markets lean on that. Narratives get built on that.
But posting a job is cheap. Hiring someone isn’t. In a high rate, uncertain economy, companies have figured out they can leave listings up or post new ones without actually committing to growth. It keeps employees hopeful, investors calm, and the outside world convinced momentum is still there.
So imagine even part of that 7.7 million is fake or non serious. The picture changes fast. Suddenly, the gap between openings and actual hires which are running closer to 5.1 million isn’t just a normal lag. It’s a warning sign that demand is being overstated while real activity is slowing.
That’s why this matters beyond corporate ethics. If companies are using job postings as PR, then JOLTS becomes less a measure of labor strength and more a measure of corporate confidence theater. And when official data starts reflecting behavior instead of reality, policy gets distorted. Rate decisions, growth assumptions, even recession calls end up lagging what people on the ground already feel.
The most damaging part is the erosion of trust. Workers feel it when they apply into a void. Analysts feel it when the data stops matching outcomes. And eventually the economy feels it when decisions are made off signals that look solid but aren’t.
If 66% of companies are posting jobs to look like they’re growing, that’s not resilience. That’s a system quietly admitting it’s afraid to tell the truth.
tweet
When Job Listings Become Theater, Not Growth
Here’s the thing about that 66% stat, it’s uncomfortable because it exposes how much optics have crept into what we treat as hard data.
Job listings aren’t just vibes. They’re an official economic input. The government uses JOLTS job openings as a core signal of labor demand, and right now that number sits around 7.7 million openings, basically unchanged, which gets interpreted as the labor market is still tight. Policymakers lean on that. Markets lean on that. Narratives get built on that.
But posting a job is cheap. Hiring someone isn’t. In a high rate, uncertain economy, companies have figured out they can leave listings up or post new ones without actually committing to growth. It keeps employees hopeful, investors calm, and the outside world convinced momentum is still there.
So imagine even part of that 7.7 million is fake or non serious. The picture changes fast. Suddenly, the gap between openings and actual hires which are running closer to 5.1 million isn’t just a normal lag. It’s a warning sign that demand is being overstated while real activity is slowing.
That’s why this matters beyond corporate ethics. If companies are using job postings as PR, then JOLTS becomes less a measure of labor strength and more a measure of corporate confidence theater. And when official data starts reflecting behavior instead of reality, policy gets distorted. Rate decisions, growth assumptions, even recession calls end up lagging what people on the ground already feel.
The most damaging part is the erosion of trust. Workers feel it when they apply into a void. Analysts feel it when the data stops matching outcomes. And eventually the economy feels it when decisions are made off signals that look solid but aren’t.
If 66% of companies are posting jobs to look like they’re growing, that’s not resilience. That’s a system quietly admitting it’s afraid to tell the truth.
66% of companies that posted fake job listings did so to act like the company is growing, per a Resume Builder survey. tweet
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EndGame Macro
Everyone keeps waiting for Fed cuts to magically fix housing but this chart shows why that’s the wrong frame. Mortgage rates don’t really price off the Fed; they price off the 10 year plus the spread, and that spread only tightened because Fannie and Freddie quietly stepped in as buyers, growing their retained MBS portfolios by roughly 25% since May. That’s intervention to keep the plumbing from cracking.
And the results tell the story. Rates eased a bit, but November sales barely moved (about 4.13M annualized, still down YoY), affordability is still broken, vacancies are up around 7.2% the highest since 2017, and rents are falling. That’s not recovery. It’s managed decline…smoothing the downside, shifting risk onto public balance sheets, and buying time while fundamentals lag. Housing cycles don’t snap back…they freeze, get propped up, then drift lower as reality catches up.
Curious what everyone is seeing locally in their own markets…still frozen, or starting to crack?
And if you don’t already follow Melody she has some of the clearest, most honest housing analysis right now, follow her on X @m3_melody and read her Substack https://t.co/MmnMI8zoRl
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Everyone keeps waiting for Fed cuts to magically fix housing but this chart shows why that’s the wrong frame. Mortgage rates don’t really price off the Fed; they price off the 10 year plus the spread, and that spread only tightened because Fannie and Freddie quietly stepped in as buyers, growing their retained MBS portfolios by roughly 25% since May. That’s intervention to keep the plumbing from cracking.
And the results tell the story. Rates eased a bit, but November sales barely moved (about 4.13M annualized, still down YoY), affordability is still broken, vacancies are up around 7.2% the highest since 2017, and rents are falling. That’s not recovery. It’s managed decline…smoothing the downside, shifting risk onto public balance sheets, and buying time while fundamentals lag. Housing cycles don’t snap back…they freeze, get propped up, then drift lower as reality catches up.
Curious what everyone is seeing locally in their own markets…still frozen, or starting to crack?
And if you don’t already follow Melody she has some of the clearest, most honest housing analysis right now, follow her on X @m3_melody and read her Substack https://t.co/MmnMI8zoRl
Desperate times call for desperate measures it seems, and the GSEs and powers that be are getting desperate
Retained MBS up by 25%? Such news sends shivers down my GFC-hardened spine
Plus what Nov home sales and price results tell us about what’s next
https://t.co/NvrDwThUnT https://t.co/KqvuGEAEjX tweet
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EndGame Macro
Why Nike’s Turnaround Won’t Be Fast
Nike’s drop doesn’t look like a random selloff. The chart had been warning for a while with lower highs, a shaky base in the mid $60s, then a clean break. When that happens after months of hope, it’s usually the market saying, we need more than promises now.
Why the Q3 outlook mattered
Management guided to lower revenue in Q3, another hit to margins, and made it clear that tariffs are doing real damage. Strip tariffs out and the business looks more stable but tariffs don’t strip out in reality. They show up in prices, margins, and demand, all at the same time.
China is the bigger drag. A double digit decline there isn’t a short term wobble, and management didn’t sound like a quick turnaround was coming. North America is holding up, but not enough to carry the whole story.
What’s really going on
My read is that Nike is being repriced as a normal, competitive retailer instead of a once untouchable growth brand. Competition is real…Hoka and On feel fresher and own the innovation narrative right now while Nike works through product refreshes, inventory cleanup, and a slower than expected DTC reset. Promotions help move shoes, but they quietly eat margins and dull brand power.
This feels like Nike is in the middle of a reset. Elliott Hill, who stepped back in to lead the company after decades inside Nike, has been pretty upfront about that. He knows the brand, the product cycle, and the mistakes that were made, and he’s been clear that fixing them takes time, not a quarter or two. That’s why this phase looks messy. The stock might look cheaper on paper, but markets don’t reward price alone. They wait for proof with cleaner inventories, steadier margins, and real product momentum and that’s usually when the bottom actually forms, not before.
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Why Nike’s Turnaround Won’t Be Fast
Nike’s drop doesn’t look like a random selloff. The chart had been warning for a while with lower highs, a shaky base in the mid $60s, then a clean break. When that happens after months of hope, it’s usually the market saying, we need more than promises now.
Why the Q3 outlook mattered
Management guided to lower revenue in Q3, another hit to margins, and made it clear that tariffs are doing real damage. Strip tariffs out and the business looks more stable but tariffs don’t strip out in reality. They show up in prices, margins, and demand, all at the same time.
China is the bigger drag. A double digit decline there isn’t a short term wobble, and management didn’t sound like a quick turnaround was coming. North America is holding up, but not enough to carry the whole story.
What’s really going on
My read is that Nike is being repriced as a normal, competitive retailer instead of a once untouchable growth brand. Competition is real…Hoka and On feel fresher and own the innovation narrative right now while Nike works through product refreshes, inventory cleanup, and a slower than expected DTC reset. Promotions help move shoes, but they quietly eat margins and dull brand power.
This feels like Nike is in the middle of a reset. Elliott Hill, who stepped back in to lead the company after decades inside Nike, has been pretty upfront about that. He knows the brand, the product cycle, and the mistakes that were made, and he’s been clear that fixing them takes time, not a quarter or two. That’s why this phase looks messy. The stock might look cheaper on paper, but markets don’t reward price alone. They wait for proof with cleaner inventories, steadier margins, and real product momentum and that’s usually when the bottom actually forms, not before.
Nike $NKE suffers largest decline since April 🚨📉 https://t.co/HNdC5f8x3v tweet
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Fiscal.ai
12 "Boring Stocks" that crush the market:
1. United Rentals $URI
10yr Total Return: +1,117% https://t.co/IyVRasKNY1
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12 "Boring Stocks" that crush the market:
1. United Rentals $URI
10yr Total Return: +1,117% https://t.co/IyVRasKNY1
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $LULU is one to watch closely.
🔹New CEO after two years of misreading customer demand.
🔹Growth is accelerating outside the West.
🔹New products that should fit demand by H1-26.
🔹Lowest multiples in history.
🔹Market loves sportswear lately.
Setup is getting interesting. https://t.co/kZbhXiJupX
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RT @WealthyReadings: $LULU is one to watch closely.
🔹New CEO after two years of misreading customer demand.
🔹Growth is accelerating outside the West.
🔹New products that should fit demand by H1-26.
🔹Lowest multiples in history.
🔹Market loves sportswear lately.
Setup is getting interesting. https://t.co/kZbhXiJupX
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