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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals
$ACN Accenture
$NKE Nike
$FDX FedEx
$CCL Carnival
$GIS General Mills
$DRI Darden
https://t.co/81IZoEjWLG
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📊 This Week in Visuals
$ACN Accenture
$NKE Nike
$FDX FedEx
$CCL Carnival
$GIS General Mills
$DRI Darden
https://t.co/81IZoEjWLG
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Progressive v. GEICO
Why has Progressive won so much market share over the last decade?
$PGR $BRK https://t.co/qSKWqOAwnW
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Progressive v. GEICO
Why has Progressive won so much market share over the last decade?
$PGR $BRK https://t.co/qSKWqOAwnW
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The Few Bets That Matter
Four stocks on my watchlist and what I’m waiting for before buying.
$NFLX - The $WBD acquisition is worrying investors due to dilution & execution risk. We’re talking about a $90B+ deal for a ~$430B company, with probably ~50% debt financing - at best.
The market might not reward the stock if the acquisition goes through, not before seeing results. That said, it would create a content giant - even bigger than today, and I have no doubt about long-term success.
Stock can go lower or stabilize for long, but we'll have a massive buying opportunity to buy a company which will join the trillion dollars company without much doubts.
Patience.
$LULU - After years of missing customer expectations, management is changing, we have a concrete plan to boost growth in the West and international demand is reaccelerating.
A retest of ~$195 is already attractive for those who'd rather buy the opportunity than the confirmations. Waiting for growth in the west would be safer but means higher prices.
I'd buy the $195 retest depending on the condition of the market when it comes.
$ADBE - The “disruption” narrative is bullshit, we know it, but the market wants proof. It wants proofs that AI demand is accelerating and that Adobe will benefit from it, not just survive.
The bottom is likely already in. Like Lululemon, the stock is buyable but I'd wait for confirmations on this one as valuation isn't that low. Confirmations in term of AI acceleration or price action uptrend.
$SE & $MELI - E-com in Southeast Asia and Latin America are both under pressure on competition narratives from Chinese players & Amazon.
All e-commerce stocks sold off on competition fears, which cannot be true - if some lose share others gain.
Both stocks are around or below fair value but price action matters. Until we have a clear bottom, buying here is a gamble that we won't go lower while multiples remain high - even if lower than historical.
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Four stocks on my watchlist and what I’m waiting for before buying.
$NFLX - The $WBD acquisition is worrying investors due to dilution & execution risk. We’re talking about a $90B+ deal for a ~$430B company, with probably ~50% debt financing - at best.
The market might not reward the stock if the acquisition goes through, not before seeing results. That said, it would create a content giant - even bigger than today, and I have no doubt about long-term success.
Stock can go lower or stabilize for long, but we'll have a massive buying opportunity to buy a company which will join the trillion dollars company without much doubts.
Patience.
$LULU - After years of missing customer expectations, management is changing, we have a concrete plan to boost growth in the West and international demand is reaccelerating.
A retest of ~$195 is already attractive for those who'd rather buy the opportunity than the confirmations. Waiting for growth in the west would be safer but means higher prices.
I'd buy the $195 retest depending on the condition of the market when it comes.
$ADBE - The “disruption” narrative is bullshit, we know it, but the market wants proof. It wants proofs that AI demand is accelerating and that Adobe will benefit from it, not just survive.
The bottom is likely already in. Like Lululemon, the stock is buyable but I'd wait for confirmations on this one as valuation isn't that low. Confirmations in term of AI acceleration or price action uptrend.
$SE & $MELI - E-com in Southeast Asia and Latin America are both under pressure on competition narratives from Chinese players & Amazon.
All e-commerce stocks sold off on competition fears, which cannot be true - if some lose share others gain.
Both stocks are around or below fair value but price action matters. Until we have a clear bottom, buying here is a gamble that we won't go lower while multiples remain high - even if lower than historical.
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The Few Bets That Matter
$MSTR is priced with a discount assuming $BTC at $71,000.
If you believe Bitcoin is going higher, not lower, you have a free 15% - 20% arbitrage situation performance here. https://t.co/8jWUUHWFoW
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$MSTR is priced with a discount assuming $BTC at $71,000.
If you believe Bitcoin is going higher, not lower, you have a free 15% - 20% arbitrage situation performance here. https://t.co/8jWUUHWFoW
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Fiscal.ai
Visa & Mastercard combined now have more than 8 billion total cards in circulation.
Is there any business in the world with a larger network effect?
$V $MA https://t.co/Bk9EJQ2JZH
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Visa & Mastercard combined now have more than 8 billion total cards in circulation.
Is there any business in the world with a larger network effect?
$V $MA https://t.co/Bk9EJQ2JZH
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EndGame Macro
RT @TOzgokmen: What I see in this graph is Japan imitating the same inflation spike experiment with some delay, after drifting into deflation towards the end of covid.
Instead of handing out stimulus like USgov did, Japan leadership forced corporations to increase wages all at once. Both methods increased money supply in the real economy.
Unless it is continued, inflation will come down, not only returning to pre-covid values but much much lower ⤵️
In both cases, monetary inflation spike is being used to hide background deflation; economic collapse due to the end of the prevailing global business model & demographics.
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RT @TOzgokmen: What I see in this graph is Japan imitating the same inflation spike experiment with some delay, after drifting into deflation towards the end of covid.
Instead of handing out stimulus like USgov did, Japan leadership forced corporations to increase wages all at once. Both methods increased money supply in the real economy.
Unless it is continued, inflation will come down, not only returning to pre-covid values but much much lower ⤵️
In both cases, monetary inflation spike is being used to hide background deflation; economic collapse due to the end of the prevailing global business model & demographics.
🚨 Japanese inflation is now above US inflation for the first time since 1979. https://t.co/pACaUFHHfi tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Palantir currently has a larger market cap than Salesforce and Adobe combined.
Market Cap:
Palantir: $445B
Salesforce + Adobe: $394B
Revenue:
Palantir: $3.9B
Salesforce + Adobe: $64.3B
$PLTR $CRM $ADBE https://t.co/Zz4RcbhPZ9
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Palantir currently has a larger market cap than Salesforce and Adobe combined.
Market Cap:
Palantir: $445B
Salesforce + Adobe: $394B
Revenue:
Palantir: $3.9B
Salesforce + Adobe: $64.3B
$PLTR $CRM $ADBE https://t.co/Zz4RcbhPZ9
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Fiscal.ai
Atlassian currently spends 26% of its revenue on stock-based compensation.
That's the highest of all large-cap software companies.
$TEAM https://t.co/ggyFLTCb3o
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Atlassian currently spends 26% of its revenue on stock-based compensation.
That's the highest of all large-cap software companies.
$TEAM https://t.co/ggyFLTCb3o
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The Few Bets That Matter
Undervalued is just a word used to confirm personal bias.
$PYPL is undervalued only if growth reaccelerates.
$NVO is undervalued only with a new growth source.
$DUOL is undervalued only if usage converts into revenue.
$ADBE is undervalued only if AI demand accelerates.
$LULU is undervalued only if they can revive Western demand.
$NKE is undervalued only if consumers want the product again.
$UNH is undervalued only if ACA remains unchanged.
$NFLX is undervalued only if post $WBD execution delivers.
Undervaluation materializes only when data is positive and price is depressed.
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Undervalued is just a word used to confirm personal bias.
$PYPL is undervalued only if growth reaccelerates.
$NVO is undervalued only with a new growth source.
$DUOL is undervalued only if usage converts into revenue.
$ADBE is undervalued only if AI demand accelerates.
$LULU is undervalued only if they can revive Western demand.
$NKE is undervalued only if consumers want the product again.
$UNH is undervalued only if ACA remains unchanged.
$NFLX is undervalued only if post $WBD execution delivers.
Undervaluation materializes only when data is positive and price is depressed.
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