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EndGame Macro
What Redfin Is Picking Up That Others Miss
When you look at Redfin’s numbers without seasonal smoothing or annualized framing, the message is pretty clear that buyers are pulling back again and sellers are quietly doing the same.
Pending home sales are down roughly 6% year over year, the largest drop in nearly a year. That’s not a rounding error and it’s not just winter seasonality. At the same time, homes are taking about 52 days to go under contract, roughly a week longer than last year. Fewer than 22% of homes are selling above list, down from roughly 24% a year ago, and the sale to list ratio has slipped to about 98.1%.
That combination matters. It tells you buyers have more leverage but they’re not eager to use it. They’re browsing, touring, watching… and waiting.
Why the Non Seasonally Adjusted View Matters
Redfin’s biggest advantage is that it’s showing real time behavior, not cleaned up history. The data is based on direct MLS feeds, updated weekly, and tracks when homes are listed and when contracts are signed, not when deals finally close.
That’s a very different lens from the NAR report, which focuses on closings, then converts them into a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In November, NAR reported a 0.5% month over month increase in existing home sales to 4.13 million SAAR, with inventory at 1.43 million units and a median price of $409,200, up 1.2% year over year.
Those numbers aren’t wrong, they’re just lagged. November closings reflect purchase decisions made back in September and October, when mortgage rates were lower and sentiment was slightly better.
Redfin, meanwhile, is capturing what’s happening right now, and right now contract activity is fading again.
When those two datasets diverge, Redfin tends to lead.
The Standoff Market Is Back and the Data Shows It
One of the most telling parts of the Redfin report is the double retreat…
• New listings are down about 3% year over year, the sharpest pullback of the year.
• Active listings are only up around 4% year over year, the smallest increase since early 2024.
That’s crucial. Buyers are backing away, but sellers aren’t flooding the market either. Locked in mortgage rates and low inventory keep supply constrained, even as demand softens.
So you don’t get a collapse. You get a freeze.
Prices still edge higher…Redfin shows median sale prices up around 1.7% YoY, and median asking prices up about 2.3% YoY but those gains are happening alongside fewer deals, slower velocity, and more negotiation.
What This Says About the Housing Trend
Housing sales are softening, not stabilizing into a durable recovery.
Mortgage rates around 6.2%–6.3% are lower than they were earlier this year, but they’re still high enough to keep affordability tight. Redfin’s own demand index is down roughly 15% year over year, even though search activity and mortgage purchase applications have ticked up. People are interested they’re just not committing.
Historically, that’s how housing downturns evolve: volume rolls over first, while prices hold because supply is rationed. If the labor market weakens or recession risk rises, that standoff tends to break and when it does, inventory usually rises before prices finally adjust.
My View
If you want confirmation of where housing was, the NAR report is useful.
If you want a read on where housing is going next, Redfin’s data is more informative.
Right now, Redfin is flashing a clear signal that transaction momentum is fading again, even with slightly better rates and still tight supply. That’s not noise, and it’s not seasonal. It’s what housing looks like when affordability and confidence are both strained and when the next move is more likely down in volume than up in activity.
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What Redfin Is Picking Up That Others Miss
When you look at Redfin’s numbers without seasonal smoothing or annualized framing, the message is pretty clear that buyers are pulling back again and sellers are quietly doing the same.
Pending home sales are down roughly 6% year over year, the largest drop in nearly a year. That’s not a rounding error and it’s not just winter seasonality. At the same time, homes are taking about 52 days to go under contract, roughly a week longer than last year. Fewer than 22% of homes are selling above list, down from roughly 24% a year ago, and the sale to list ratio has slipped to about 98.1%.
That combination matters. It tells you buyers have more leverage but they’re not eager to use it. They’re browsing, touring, watching… and waiting.
Why the Non Seasonally Adjusted View Matters
Redfin’s biggest advantage is that it’s showing real time behavior, not cleaned up history. The data is based on direct MLS feeds, updated weekly, and tracks when homes are listed and when contracts are signed, not when deals finally close.
That’s a very different lens from the NAR report, which focuses on closings, then converts them into a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In November, NAR reported a 0.5% month over month increase in existing home sales to 4.13 million SAAR, with inventory at 1.43 million units and a median price of $409,200, up 1.2% year over year.
Those numbers aren’t wrong, they’re just lagged. November closings reflect purchase decisions made back in September and October, when mortgage rates were lower and sentiment was slightly better.
Redfin, meanwhile, is capturing what’s happening right now, and right now contract activity is fading again.
When those two datasets diverge, Redfin tends to lead.
The Standoff Market Is Back and the Data Shows It
One of the most telling parts of the Redfin report is the double retreat…
• New listings are down about 3% year over year, the sharpest pullback of the year.
• Active listings are only up around 4% year over year, the smallest increase since early 2024.
That’s crucial. Buyers are backing away, but sellers aren’t flooding the market either. Locked in mortgage rates and low inventory keep supply constrained, even as demand softens.
So you don’t get a collapse. You get a freeze.
Prices still edge higher…Redfin shows median sale prices up around 1.7% YoY, and median asking prices up about 2.3% YoY but those gains are happening alongside fewer deals, slower velocity, and more negotiation.
What This Says About the Housing Trend
Housing sales are softening, not stabilizing into a durable recovery.
Mortgage rates around 6.2%–6.3% are lower than they were earlier this year, but they’re still high enough to keep affordability tight. Redfin’s own demand index is down roughly 15% year over year, even though search activity and mortgage purchase applications have ticked up. People are interested they’re just not committing.
Historically, that’s how housing downturns evolve: volume rolls over first, while prices hold because supply is rationed. If the labor market weakens or recession risk rises, that standoff tends to break and when it does, inventory usually rises before prices finally adjust.
My View
If you want confirmation of where housing was, the NAR report is useful.
If you want a read on where housing is going next, Redfin’s data is more informative.
Right now, Redfin is flashing a clear signal that transaction momentum is fading again, even with slightly better rates and still tight supply. That’s not noise, and it’s not seasonal. It’s what housing looks like when affordability and confidence are both strained and when the next move is more likely down in volume than up in activity.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When Gold Buys This Much Oil, the Market Is Bracing for Something
This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold? And at about 0.51 grams per barrel, the answer right now is a lot. That’s extreme. Historically, you don’t see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping, travel, production. Gold is tied to trust, uncertainty, and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil, the market is leaning toward protection over growth.
Look at the past troughs and the pattern is pretty consistent. These lows show up around demand shocks or financial stress like in the late 90s in Asia, 2008, 2020. Oil gets hit first because demand weakens, while gold holds up because uncertainty doesn’t fade as fast as inflation. That fits the current backdrop if a global slowdown is coming. The key thing, though, is that these extremes rarely last forever. Either recession deepens and oil stays suppressed longer than people expect, or policy easing, supply risk, or recovery flips the script and oil snaps back hard. Historically, when this ratio turns, it tends to do so fast and that’s what makes this level less a resting place and more a sign that something is about to change.
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When Gold Buys This Much Oil, the Market Is Bracing for Something
This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold? And at about 0.51 grams per barrel, the answer right now is a lot. That’s extreme. Historically, you don’t see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping, travel, production. Gold is tied to trust, uncertainty, and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil, the market is leaning toward protection over growth.
Look at the past troughs and the pattern is pretty consistent. These lows show up around demand shocks or financial stress like in the late 90s in Asia, 2008, 2020. Oil gets hit first because demand weakens, while gold holds up because uncertainty doesn’t fade as fast as inflation. That fits the current backdrop if a global slowdown is coming. The key thing, though, is that these extremes rarely last forever. Either recession deepens and oil stays suppressed longer than people expect, or policy easing, supply risk, or recovery flips the script and oil snaps back hard. Historically, when this ratio turns, it tends to do so fast and that’s what makes this level less a resting place and more a sign that something is about to change.
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EndGame Macro
When the Consumer Stops Feeling It, the Economy Usually Follows
This chart is basically a snapshot of how people feel about their finances right now, not where they think things are headed. And when this index sinks toward the low 50s, history says that’s not just grumbling, it usually lines up with real economic stress. You see it in the mid 70s during inflation and unemployment shocks, in the early 80s during aggressive tightening, in 2008 when housing and credit broke, and in 2020 when the economy suddenly stopped. The common thread isn’t fear about the future, it’s that people’s day to day math stopped working.
What makes this moment different is that the drop hasn’t come from a single shock. It’s been a slow erosion. Prices reset higher, borrowing got more expensive, and even as inflation cooled, the level of costs stayed elevated. That’s why sentiment hasn’t bounced the way it usually does when inflation rolls over. People don’t feel relief just because prices rise more slowly, they feel it when their pay, savings, and purchasing power actually catch up. The consumer is already defensive. When current conditions sit this low, spending usually weakens next, not all at once, but gradually…first discretionary, then credit, then labor. At this point, it wouldn’t take a big jobs shock to turn this from frustration into something more tangible.
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When the Consumer Stops Feeling It, the Economy Usually Follows
This chart is basically a snapshot of how people feel about their finances right now, not where they think things are headed. And when this index sinks toward the low 50s, history says that’s not just grumbling, it usually lines up with real economic stress. You see it in the mid 70s during inflation and unemployment shocks, in the early 80s during aggressive tightening, in 2008 when housing and credit broke, and in 2020 when the economy suddenly stopped. The common thread isn’t fear about the future, it’s that people’s day to day math stopped working.
What makes this moment different is that the drop hasn’t come from a single shock. It’s been a slow erosion. Prices reset higher, borrowing got more expensive, and even as inflation cooled, the level of costs stayed elevated. That’s why sentiment hasn’t bounced the way it usually does when inflation rolls over. People don’t feel relief just because prices rise more slowly, they feel it when their pay, savings, and purchasing power actually catch up. The consumer is already defensive. When current conditions sit this low, spending usually weakens next, not all at once, but gradually…first discretionary, then credit, then labor. At this point, it wouldn’t take a big jobs shock to turn this from frustration into something more tangible.
The University of Michigan Current Conditions Index declined to the lowest level in recorded history in December. https://t.co/ZoKfHhnEdU tweet
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EndGame Macro
President Trump Says He’s Looking At Emergency Action On Housing
President Trump says he is considering declaring a national housing emergency to tackle affordability while trying not to undercut existing homeowners’ wealth. He frames housing as a core store of net worth especially for older households and argues that rapidly expanding supply could push prices down in a way that hurts current owners, even as younger buyers struggle to enter the market.
A national emergency declaration would give him broad executive powers to act without Congress, potentially allowing the administration to free up federal land, waive or fast track regulations, reduce closing costs, adjust mortgage programs through agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and apply pressure on zoning and construction costs, all aimed at increasing access to housing without triggering a sharp price correction.
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President Trump Says He’s Looking At Emergency Action On Housing
President Trump says he is considering declaring a national housing emergency to tackle affordability while trying not to undercut existing homeowners’ wealth. He frames housing as a core store of net worth especially for older households and argues that rapidly expanding supply could push prices down in a way that hurts current owners, even as younger buyers struggle to enter the market.
A national emergency declaration would give him broad executive powers to act without Congress, potentially allowing the administration to free up federal land, waive or fast track regulations, reduce closing costs, adjust mortgage programs through agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and apply pressure on zoning and construction costs, all aimed at increasing access to housing without triggering a sharp price correction.
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Fiscal.ai
Throwback to one of the best investment pitches of all time.
Norbert Lou in 2001:
"NVR is a homebuilder. Their operating model, which is unique, allows them to assume the least risk in the industry and produce returns that are the largest."
$NVR is up 4,858% since. https://t.co/NckQIIwoZF
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Throwback to one of the best investment pitches of all time.
Norbert Lou in 2001:
"NVR is a homebuilder. Their operating model, which is unique, allows them to assume the least risk in the industry and produce returns that are the largest."
$NVR is up 4,858% since. https://t.co/NckQIIwoZF
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