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The Few Bets That Matter
$NKE comments say it all.
China continues to stand out as one of the most powerful long-term opportunities in sport. That has not changed.
For $ONON & $LULU. Not for them.
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$NKE comments say it all.
China continues to stand out as one of the most powerful long-term opportunities in sport. That has not changed.
For $ONON & $LULU. Not for them.
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money. tweet
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EndGame Macro
Inside the NAR Existing Home Sales Report: A Market That’s Paused, Not Recovering
Existing home sales ticked up 0.5% in November, prices are still up year over year, and inventory technically fell month to month. If you stop there, it sounds like housing is stabilizing.
But once you slow down and actually read the report, the story changes. This wasn’t a demand resurgence. It was a thin, rate sensitive bounce layered on top of a market that’s still grinding sideways with weakening momentum.
Total existing home sales are running at about 4.13 million SAAR, which is barely above the post 2022 lows and still far below pre hike norms. In real terms, activity is stuck. November didn’t break the range, it just nudged the top of it.
Prices Aren’t Rising They’re Being Supported
The median existing home price is $409,200, up 1.2% YoY, marking the 29th straight year over year increase. That sounds strong until you look at how it’s happening.
Sales are falling hardest at the low end. Homes under $250k are down sharply YoY, while the $1M+ category is the only segment showing growth. That mix shift alone props up the median. It’s not broad pricing power, its composition.
This is classic late cycle housing behavior where affordability gets crushed, first time buyers step back, and the median price stays elevated because only higher income buyers can transact.
Inventory Is Still Tight, but Cracking in the Wrong Places
Headline inventory fell 5.9% month over month, landing at 1.43 million units, or 4.2 months of supply. NAR frames this as sellers hunkering down.
When inventory stalls because sellers won’t list, not because buyers are clearing homes, it tells you liquidity is freezing. The regional data shows inventory is still building year over year in many areas even as sales struggle to absorb it, especially outside the South.
Who’s Still Buying (And Who Isn’t)
First time buyers are stuck at 30% of sales, unchanged from last year and below where they should be in a healthy cycle. Meanwhile…
• Cash sales are still elevated
• Investor/second home buyers are rising again
•Days on market are creeping higher
That combination says affordability is doing the rationing, not confidence. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s increasingly limited to buyers who don’t need a mortgage or can absorb today’s rates.
Where We Are in the Housing Cycle
This looks exactly like a late lag housing slowdown, not an early recovery.
Rates peaked long ago. Transactions already collapsed. Now prices are holding because supply is artificially constrained and forced selling is still low. That’s normal before labor market stress shows up.
Historically, housing doesn’t break on rate hikes, it breaks when jobs soften and credit tightens at the same time. We’re not fully there yet, but the leading indicators are lining up.
What Comes Next
Here’s the part I’m most confident about…
• Sales stay range bound or drift lower unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully, not just 25–50 bps.
• Price growth continues to slow, with real (inflation adjusted) prices already falling in many regions.
•Downside risk concentrates in the lower and middle tiers, where affordability is most stretched.
•If unemployment rises in 2026, inventory unlocks fast, and price pressure shows up with a lag.
This report doesn’t say housing is strong. It says housing is paused, propped up by lock in effects, skewed buyers, and the absence of forced selling, conditions that rarely last once the broader economy turns.
My View
The November bump isn’t a turn. It’s a reminder that housing is a lagging indicator pretending to be stable.
Momentum is fading beneath the surface, affordability is doing the damage quietly, and the market is increasingly dependent on rates and labor staying cooperative at the same time.
That’s not a crash call but it’s not a recovery either.
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Inside the NAR Existing Home Sales Report: A Market That’s Paused, Not Recovering
Existing home sales ticked up 0.5% in November, prices are still up year over year, and inventory technically fell month to month. If you stop there, it sounds like housing is stabilizing.
But once you slow down and actually read the report, the story changes. This wasn’t a demand resurgence. It was a thin, rate sensitive bounce layered on top of a market that’s still grinding sideways with weakening momentum.
Total existing home sales are running at about 4.13 million SAAR, which is barely above the post 2022 lows and still far below pre hike norms. In real terms, activity is stuck. November didn’t break the range, it just nudged the top of it.
Prices Aren’t Rising They’re Being Supported
The median existing home price is $409,200, up 1.2% YoY, marking the 29th straight year over year increase. That sounds strong until you look at how it’s happening.
Sales are falling hardest at the low end. Homes under $250k are down sharply YoY, while the $1M+ category is the only segment showing growth. That mix shift alone props up the median. It’s not broad pricing power, its composition.
This is classic late cycle housing behavior where affordability gets crushed, first time buyers step back, and the median price stays elevated because only higher income buyers can transact.
Inventory Is Still Tight, but Cracking in the Wrong Places
Headline inventory fell 5.9% month over month, landing at 1.43 million units, or 4.2 months of supply. NAR frames this as sellers hunkering down.
When inventory stalls because sellers won’t list, not because buyers are clearing homes, it tells you liquidity is freezing. The regional data shows inventory is still building year over year in many areas even as sales struggle to absorb it, especially outside the South.
Who’s Still Buying (And Who Isn’t)
First time buyers are stuck at 30% of sales, unchanged from last year and below where they should be in a healthy cycle. Meanwhile…
• Cash sales are still elevated
• Investor/second home buyers are rising again
•Days on market are creeping higher
That combination says affordability is doing the rationing, not confidence. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s increasingly limited to buyers who don’t need a mortgage or can absorb today’s rates.
Where We Are in the Housing Cycle
This looks exactly like a late lag housing slowdown, not an early recovery.
Rates peaked long ago. Transactions already collapsed. Now prices are holding because supply is artificially constrained and forced selling is still low. That’s normal before labor market stress shows up.
Historically, housing doesn’t break on rate hikes, it breaks when jobs soften and credit tightens at the same time. We’re not fully there yet, but the leading indicators are lining up.
What Comes Next
Here’s the part I’m most confident about…
• Sales stay range bound or drift lower unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully, not just 25–50 bps.
• Price growth continues to slow, with real (inflation adjusted) prices already falling in many regions.
•Downside risk concentrates in the lower and middle tiers, where affordability is most stretched.
•If unemployment rises in 2026, inventory unlocks fast, and price pressure shows up with a lag.
This report doesn’t say housing is strong. It says housing is paused, propped up by lock in effects, skewed buyers, and the absence of forced selling, conditions that rarely last once the broader economy turns.
My View
The November bump isn’t a turn. It’s a reminder that housing is a lagging indicator pretending to be stable.
Momentum is fading beneath the surface, affordability is doing the damage quietly, and the market is increasingly dependent on rates and labor staying cooperative at the same time.
That’s not a crash call but it’s not a recovery either.
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The Few Bets That Matter
All my positions have a large potential and a simple & clear thesis.
$NBIS → $220+ before 2027
Execution timelines + stable AI demand growth for a 7–8x F.P/S, even higher depending on execution & AI premium.
$ALAB → $250+ before 2028
Structural demand for AI accelerators and a rapid ramp of Scorpion products resolving the next AI bottleneck.
$BABA → $300+ before 2027
AI revenue acceleration + China macro recovery + easier comps post SunArt & Intime sales + rerating.
$PATH → $40+ before 2027
ARR re-acceleration and multiple expansion due to acceleration and AI optimism.
$TMDX → $250+ before 2028
Path to 10,000 cases ≈ $1.03B revenue hence 25%+ CAGR and a justified 7–10x sales multiple.
All the details, arguments and positions are described here
https://t.co/JqumqSduMh
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All my positions have a large potential and a simple & clear thesis.
$NBIS → $220+ before 2027
Execution timelines + stable AI demand growth for a 7–8x F.P/S, even higher depending on execution & AI premium.
$ALAB → $250+ before 2028
Structural demand for AI accelerators and a rapid ramp of Scorpion products resolving the next AI bottleneck.
$BABA → $300+ before 2027
AI revenue acceleration + China macro recovery + easier comps post SunArt & Intime sales + rerating.
$PATH → $40+ before 2027
ARR re-acceleration and multiple expansion due to acceleration and AI optimism.
$TMDX → $250+ before 2028
Path to 10,000 cases ≈ $1.03B revenue hence 25%+ CAGR and a justified 7–10x sales multiple.
All the details, arguments and positions are described here
https://t.co/JqumqSduMh
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EndGame Macro
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Relief on Inflation, Not on Life
Sentiment ticked up in December. The index moved from 51.0 to 52.9 technically an improvement, but only after months of steady deterioration from the mid 70s earlier in the year. That context matters. When sentiment is this low, small moves up often say more about exhaustion than optimism. People aren’t suddenly feeling good, they’re just feeling slightly less bad.
What really jumps out is how depressed the level still is. At 52.9, sentiment is nowhere near a healthy expansionary range. Historically, readings like this are consistent with periods when households are cautious, defensive, and slow to commit to big purchases.
The split between now and later tells you everything
Dig into the components and the story gets clearer. Current conditions fell again, from 51.1 to 50.4, while expectations rose to 54.6. That’s not confidence, that’s coping.
In plain terms…people don’t like how things feel today, but they’re hoping next year is easier. That pattern shows up late in cycles, when the present is tight but consumers are leaning on the idea that rates will fall, inflation will cool, or policymakers will ride to the rescue. Hope is doing more work than income growth.
Inflation expectations are cooling but prices are still the villain
The chart makes this painfully obvious. One year inflation expectations have fallen from the spring peak above 6% to 4.2%, and five year expectations eased to 3.2%. That’s real progress on expectations.
But here’s the catch…consumers don’t experience inflation as a forecast. They experience it as a price level. The red line in the chart, the share of consumers blaming high prices for poor personal finances stays elevated even as inflation expectations fall. That’s the disconnect policymakers keep running into.
Slower inflation doesn’t feel like relief when groceries, rent, insurance, and utilities are still far above where they were a few years ago. Disinflation helps the future, but it doesn’t repair the damage already done to household balance sheets.
Why this matters for the economy going forward
This is not the psychology of a consumer ready to drive growth. It’s the psychology of a consumer trying to preserve flexibility.
When sentiment is this low and current conditions are weakening, spending becomes selective. Households still spend on necessities, but they delay upgrades, discretionary durables, and anything that feels optional. That lines up with what we’re seeing elsewhere with softer big ticket demand, pressure on lower income households, and more sensitivity to rates and credit availability.
It also means the economy has very little emotional cushion. If the labor market softens or credit tightens further, sentiment doesn’t have far to fall and historically, that’s when pullbacks in spending accelerate.
My View
Inflation expectations are improving, which helps the Fed. But consumer morale remains stuck near cycle lows because prices are still high and incomes haven’t fully caught up. That combination of cooling inflation but persistent frustration is exactly what you see before growth slows further, not before it reaccelerates.
The consumer isn’t panicking, but they’re not confident either. They’re bracing. And economies rarely surprise to the upside when households are stuck in that mindset.
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Relief on Inflation, Not on Life
Sentiment ticked up in December. The index moved from 51.0 to 52.9 technically an improvement, but only after months of steady deterioration from the mid 70s earlier in the year. That context matters. When sentiment is this low, small moves up often say more about exhaustion than optimism. People aren’t suddenly feeling good, they’re just feeling slightly less bad.
What really jumps out is how depressed the level still is. At 52.9, sentiment is nowhere near a healthy expansionary range. Historically, readings like this are consistent with periods when households are cautious, defensive, and slow to commit to big purchases.
The split between now and later tells you everything
Dig into the components and the story gets clearer. Current conditions fell again, from 51.1 to 50.4, while expectations rose to 54.6. That’s not confidence, that’s coping.
In plain terms…people don’t like how things feel today, but they’re hoping next year is easier. That pattern shows up late in cycles, when the present is tight but consumers are leaning on the idea that rates will fall, inflation will cool, or policymakers will ride to the rescue. Hope is doing more work than income growth.
Inflation expectations are cooling but prices are still the villain
The chart makes this painfully obvious. One year inflation expectations have fallen from the spring peak above 6% to 4.2%, and five year expectations eased to 3.2%. That’s real progress on expectations.
But here’s the catch…consumers don’t experience inflation as a forecast. They experience it as a price level. The red line in the chart, the share of consumers blaming high prices for poor personal finances stays elevated even as inflation expectations fall. That’s the disconnect policymakers keep running into.
Slower inflation doesn’t feel like relief when groceries, rent, insurance, and utilities are still far above where they were a few years ago. Disinflation helps the future, but it doesn’t repair the damage already done to household balance sheets.
Why this matters for the economy going forward
This is not the psychology of a consumer ready to drive growth. It’s the psychology of a consumer trying to preserve flexibility.
When sentiment is this low and current conditions are weakening, spending becomes selective. Households still spend on necessities, but they delay upgrades, discretionary durables, and anything that feels optional. That lines up with what we’re seeing elsewhere with softer big ticket demand, pressure on lower income households, and more sensitivity to rates and credit availability.
It also means the economy has very little emotional cushion. If the labor market softens or credit tightens further, sentiment doesn’t have far to fall and historically, that’s when pullbacks in spending accelerate.
My View
Inflation expectations are improving, which helps the Fed. But consumer morale remains stuck near cycle lows because prices are still high and incomes haven’t fully caught up. That combination of cooling inflation but persistent frustration is exactly what you see before growth slows further, not before it reaccelerates.
The consumer isn’t panicking, but they’re not confident either. They’re bracing. And economies rarely surprise to the upside when households are stuck in that mindset.
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EndGame Macro
$9 to $9.2 trillion of U.S. government debt is projected to mature and require rolling over and refinanced in 2026. And a massive amount of commercial real estate debt, estimated between $1.26 trillion to over $1.8 trillion is maturing in 2026. https://t.co/EX6uRDQJpq
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$9 to $9.2 trillion of U.S. government debt is projected to mature and require rolling over and refinanced in 2026. And a massive amount of commercial real estate debt, estimated between $1.26 trillion to over $1.8 trillion is maturing in 2026. https://t.co/EX6uRDQJpq
US Fed official says no urgency to cut rates, flags distorted data
https://t.co/E2RQVgjSR8 tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: @DMckdani Agreed. Future returns (~5 year or so) will really come down to $COST maintaining such a hefty premium. While possible, I wouldn’t want to bank on a 50x multiple … leaves us with no real margin of safety
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RT @DimitryNakhla: @DMckdani Agreed. Future returns (~5 year or so) will really come down to $COST maintaining such a hefty premium. While possible, I wouldn’t want to bank on a 50x multiple … leaves us with no real margin of safety
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EndGame Macro
What Redfin Is Picking Up That Others Miss
When you look at Redfin’s numbers without seasonal smoothing or annualized framing, the message is pretty clear that buyers are pulling back again and sellers are quietly doing the same.
Pending home sales are down roughly 6% year over year, the largest drop in nearly a year. That’s not a rounding error and it’s not just winter seasonality. At the same time, homes are taking about 52 days to go under contract, roughly a week longer than last year. Fewer than 22% of homes are selling above list, down from roughly 24% a year ago, and the sale to list ratio has slipped to about 98.1%.
That combination matters. It tells you buyers have more leverage but they’re not eager to use it. They’re browsing, touring, watching… and waiting.
Why the Non Seasonally Adjusted View Matters
Redfin’s biggest advantage is that it’s showing real time behavior, not cleaned up history. The data is based on direct MLS feeds, updated weekly, and tracks when homes are listed and when contracts are signed, not when deals finally close.
That’s a very different lens from the NAR report, which focuses on closings, then converts them into a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In November, NAR reported a 0.5% month over month increase in existing home sales to 4.13 million SAAR, with inventory at 1.43 million units and a median price of $409,200, up 1.2% year over year.
Those numbers aren’t wrong, they’re just lagged. November closings reflect purchase decisions made back in September and October, when mortgage rates were lower and sentiment was slightly better.
Redfin, meanwhile, is capturing what’s happening right now, and right now contract activity is fading again.
When those two datasets diverge, Redfin tends to lead.
The Standoff Market Is Back and the Data Shows It
One of the most telling parts of the Redfin report is the double retreat…
• New listings are down about 3% year over year, the sharpest pullback of the year.
• Active listings are only up around 4% year over year, the smallest increase since early 2024.
That’s crucial. Buyers are backing away, but sellers aren’t flooding the market either. Locked in mortgage rates and low inventory keep supply constrained, even as demand softens.
So you don’t get a collapse. You get a freeze.
Prices still edge higher…Redfin shows median sale prices up around 1.7% YoY, and median asking prices up about 2.3% YoY but those gains are happening alongside fewer deals, slower velocity, and more negotiation.
What This Says About the Housing Trend
Housing sales are softening, not stabilizing into a durable recovery.
Mortgage rates around 6.2%–6.3% are lower than they were earlier this year, but they’re still high enough to keep affordability tight. Redfin’s own demand index is down roughly 15% year over year, even though search activity and mortgage purchase applications have ticked up. People are interested they’re just not committing.
Historically, that’s how housing downturns evolve: volume rolls over first, while prices hold because supply is rationed. If the labor market weakens or recession risk rises, that standoff tends to break and when it does, inventory usually rises before prices finally adjust.
My View
If you want confirmation of where housing was, the NAR report is useful.
If you want a read on where housing is going next, Redfin’s data is more informative.
Right now, Redfin is flashing a clear signal that transaction momentum is fading again, even with slightly better rates and still tight supply. That’s not noise, and it’s not seasonal. It’s what housing looks like when affordability and confidence are both strained and when the next move is more likely down in volume than up in activity.
tweet
What Redfin Is Picking Up That Others Miss
When you look at Redfin’s numbers without seasonal smoothing or annualized framing, the message is pretty clear that buyers are pulling back again and sellers are quietly doing the same.
Pending home sales are down roughly 6% year over year, the largest drop in nearly a year. That’s not a rounding error and it’s not just winter seasonality. At the same time, homes are taking about 52 days to go under contract, roughly a week longer than last year. Fewer than 22% of homes are selling above list, down from roughly 24% a year ago, and the sale to list ratio has slipped to about 98.1%.
That combination matters. It tells you buyers have more leverage but they’re not eager to use it. They’re browsing, touring, watching… and waiting.
Why the Non Seasonally Adjusted View Matters
Redfin’s biggest advantage is that it’s showing real time behavior, not cleaned up history. The data is based on direct MLS feeds, updated weekly, and tracks when homes are listed and when contracts are signed, not when deals finally close.
That’s a very different lens from the NAR report, which focuses on closings, then converts them into a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In November, NAR reported a 0.5% month over month increase in existing home sales to 4.13 million SAAR, with inventory at 1.43 million units and a median price of $409,200, up 1.2% year over year.
Those numbers aren’t wrong, they’re just lagged. November closings reflect purchase decisions made back in September and October, when mortgage rates were lower and sentiment was slightly better.
Redfin, meanwhile, is capturing what’s happening right now, and right now contract activity is fading again.
When those two datasets diverge, Redfin tends to lead.
The Standoff Market Is Back and the Data Shows It
One of the most telling parts of the Redfin report is the double retreat…
• New listings are down about 3% year over year, the sharpest pullback of the year.
• Active listings are only up around 4% year over year, the smallest increase since early 2024.
That’s crucial. Buyers are backing away, but sellers aren’t flooding the market either. Locked in mortgage rates and low inventory keep supply constrained, even as demand softens.
So you don’t get a collapse. You get a freeze.
Prices still edge higher…Redfin shows median sale prices up around 1.7% YoY, and median asking prices up about 2.3% YoY but those gains are happening alongside fewer deals, slower velocity, and more negotiation.
What This Says About the Housing Trend
Housing sales are softening, not stabilizing into a durable recovery.
Mortgage rates around 6.2%–6.3% are lower than they were earlier this year, but they’re still high enough to keep affordability tight. Redfin’s own demand index is down roughly 15% year over year, even though search activity and mortgage purchase applications have ticked up. People are interested they’re just not committing.
Historically, that’s how housing downturns evolve: volume rolls over first, while prices hold because supply is rationed. If the labor market weakens or recession risk rises, that standoff tends to break and when it does, inventory usually rises before prices finally adjust.
My View
If you want confirmation of where housing was, the NAR report is useful.
If you want a read on where housing is going next, Redfin’s data is more informative.
Right now, Redfin is flashing a clear signal that transaction momentum is fading again, even with slightly better rates and still tight supply. That’s not noise, and it’s not seasonal. It’s what housing looks like when affordability and confidence are both strained and when the next move is more likely down in volume than up in activity.
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EndGame Macro
When Gold Buys This Much Oil, the Market Is Bracing for Something
This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold? And at about 0.51 grams per barrel, the answer right now is a lot. That’s extreme. Historically, you don’t see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping, travel, production. Gold is tied to trust, uncertainty, and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil, the market is leaning toward protection over growth.
Look at the past troughs and the pattern is pretty consistent. These lows show up around demand shocks or financial stress like in the late 90s in Asia, 2008, 2020. Oil gets hit first because demand weakens, while gold holds up because uncertainty doesn’t fade as fast as inflation. That fits the current backdrop if a global slowdown is coming. The key thing, though, is that these extremes rarely last forever. Either recession deepens and oil stays suppressed longer than people expect, or policy easing, supply risk, or recovery flips the script and oil snaps back hard. Historically, when this ratio turns, it tends to do so fast and that’s what makes this level less a resting place and more a sign that something is about to change.
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When Gold Buys This Much Oil, the Market Is Bracing for Something
This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold? And at about 0.51 grams per barrel, the answer right now is a lot. That’s extreme. Historically, you don’t see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping, travel, production. Gold is tied to trust, uncertainty, and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil, the market is leaning toward protection over growth.
Look at the past troughs and the pattern is pretty consistent. These lows show up around demand shocks or financial stress like in the late 90s in Asia, 2008, 2020. Oil gets hit first because demand weakens, while gold holds up because uncertainty doesn’t fade as fast as inflation. That fits the current backdrop if a global slowdown is coming. The key thing, though, is that these extremes rarely last forever. Either recession deepens and oil stays suppressed longer than people expect, or policy easing, supply risk, or recovery flips the script and oil snaps back hard. Historically, when this ratio turns, it tends to do so fast and that’s what makes this level less a resting place and more a sign that something is about to change.
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